This is 3 declines for each of these markets. Joe, it looked worse overnight well see what happens as we get a little closer to the opening bell youve been watching the treasury. It was lockdown. It was lockdown for quite some time. And it really was about i couldnt help but saying, this is the politicians fault. It was if they had done what they looked like they were going to do as of friday, i dont think it would have been like that but then again, we may have had the, all right, they passed it, were up and then that sells off. In this world, i dont know what to hope for anymore. This is how it works, though. Im going to read something in a second that im so excited about. I even got more excited about this than i did about the futures not being locked down is,000 points. Weet gel well get to that. It was 954 points or something. Yields have come down. The tenyear was down at 0. 829 . Again, that volatility is spreading not only through the stock market but treasuries. Its been amazing to get whipsawed by how yields are performing with this theres a lot of questions about whats happening in the Mortgage Market, commercial Mortgage Market and the Mortgage Market for homeowners as well we could talk about that a little later this morning, too y yep. Is this a reminder about the Trading Floor at the New York Stock Exchange is this andrew, youre no, its me i dont have a teleprompter. Its me so read it. Its becky. Electronic trading will continue as normal before i get to my big story, andrew, send your lighting guy down here. What about the flood what about the flood the flood is were going to send you some shots of the flood maybe later today. Well show you is that gone . Given everything thats going on its gone. The flood is im back in sneakers. Good. Heres my big news Goldman Sachs, pretty good company, upgrading the shares of boeing upgrading to a buy andrew, im looking at you i mean, this is this is not good news or not why are they upgrading it to buy from neutral because its down 70 yeartodate thats the bad part of this. But Goldman Sachs saying the fear is now priced into the stock and longterm secular growth remains intact. We can only hope the price target, this is a little concerning, it says it remains at 173 a share. Theyve been riding it down with that price target. But the case is that is only its going to be a going concern. Whats that, andrew but that call is only right if that call is only right if there is a bailout of the airlines otherwise that call is almost impossible to believe. And also includes, obviously, the bailout of boeing itself from the government. So, again, we talked about it for the past couple of weeks at this point if youre an investor out there and betting on a shortterm basis, youre basically betting on policy. Youre betting on what are they going to do . Are shareholders going to be wiped out. I think so its fair to say theres going to be policy the question is, what happens to the shareholder . Is boeing the new aig . Correct its a time to thats a real question. And youre hearing it across the board in terms of implicit in this call, theyre not saying buy the debt. Implicit is that the shareholders are going to be okay. Are going to be protected. Right but thats a question whether the shareholders should be protected. Im not saying they shouldnt. I have new views we can talk about that later okay, great we have a lot to look forward to we have so much going for us lets talk about the coronavirus pandemic right now, where the numbers stand as we sit here right now. Around the world they have now surged past 340,000 with at least 35,000 of those in the United States. This morning nearly one in three americans are on strict stay home orders with ohio and louisiana both enacting those lockdowns as well. President trump, we should also tell you, announcing yesterday he has activated the National Guard. Hes doing this now in california, in new york and Washington State in order to combat the spread of the virus and try to keep the peace and keep people in their homes for the most part. State governors will maintain command of the National Guard but fema will cover the costs of this for now thats still all of us the fda has issued emergency authorization for a rapid test that could detect covid19 in 19 minutes. Thats manufactured by diagnostic Company Cepheid they can be at the place of care instead of sent away thats good news the company says it will begin shipping those tests on friday meantime, a massive funding package to combat the impact of the coronavirus failed that key procedural vote in the senate it happened last night democrats said the bill did too much to bail out companies, not enough to help workers want to get to eamon javers in washington, d. C. , with the latest on all of it. It was ran extraordinary moment last night as we watched this bill, estimated to cost between 1. 6 and 2 trillion fail it was a 4747 vote in the United States senate on the floor there. They needed 60 votes, republicans did, to pass it. Democrats said they blocked the bill because, as you say, it didnt do enough to help workers. They were concerned it gave the treasury secretary too much discretion to decide where funds went and didnt provide enough of a time limit or provided too much of a time limit, i should say, on some of the restriction that impacted companies. There was a twoyear sunset on some provisions that the democrats wanted to see made permanent. There was this extraordinary moment as the president took to the Briefing Room at the white house, the senate was voting on this, voted the package down we saw the futures hit limit down even as the president was speaking in washington the president , though, insisting while all of that was happening that the economy is going to be just fine in the long run. Heres what he said. This will help our economy and you will see our economy skyrocket once this is over. I think its going to skyrocket. Its a pentup demand. Its a builtup demand and i guess you really have to say, who knows, but i think its going to be a tremendous day when we win this war we will win the war. So, the negotiations are going to continue throughout the morning. Theyre expecting on capitol hill a noon vote theyll try again and see if they can get the deal done between now and then and move this bill forward. Nancy pelosi, meanwhile, says shes going to move forward with her own bill in the house. Remember, this is the bill phase three working its way through the Senate Pelosi says her own bill is going to happen in the house that means those two bills will have to be reconciled. It will be some time before we see a final piece of legislation here one concern, i should flag for you guys, there is a concern now about how many members of congress will be available to vote for this. We saw rand paul, senator, testing positive for coindividucovivid over the weekend. Other members in the house of representatives have tested positive, others are in isolation. Whether they can get the full complement of senators and mechani members of going is going to be an open question and more difficult. Theyre talking about not being there . I saw the president talking about that doing it i mean, constitutionally youre supposed to be there, but these are crazy times, sflit you dont need to show up to do it, right . Theyll figure something out. Well, you do. Rand paul isnt going to come in hes not going to come in. Theres no proceed voting from home. Congress for years, since 9 11, has been told it needs some kind of contingency plan if the capitol is not available and resisted it. Its fear of their own mortality and inability to deal with it. They have not made coherent plans for that they could maybe put something together on the fly. If everyone agrees, maybe that will suffice but its not in place right now. Eamon, can you talk about the timeline a little bit in terms of what these two bills first of all, the distinction between these two bills and how long you think it will ultimately take to reconcile them one thing we havent talked about is the disclosure provision in the bill last night that ultimately failed part of the issue, and i heard a lot about this over the weekend from some of the people involved in it, is that the ambition or the plan was that there would not be disclosure about who was getting these loans. In large part this goes back to trying to protect the companies so people dont know, but it also creates a whole political moras if people dont know where taxpayer money is going. Its very tricky to spend taxpayer money in secret, right . The voters do have sort of a moral obligation to know where their money is going so, thats one hurdle. What youre going to look at here is two entirely separate bills. Nancy pelosi says these going to build her bill from the ground up and then theyre going to have to go into a Conference Committee and reconcile those two things and take a little bit from here and a little bit from there and its going to be a giant negotiation. You know, pelosi and the democrats have complained that the republicans did not deal with them in the original part of building the phase three bill it was just mnuchin working with senate republicans, not democrats and not nancy pelosi they now want to be included in shaping this republicans said, you know, the democrats are simply playing with fire here by voting this thing down the night before stock trading but what is the what is the earliest whats the earliest you think we could get both sides to reconcile and agree given that time is wasting and there are so many people around this country that are not going to be getting paychecks . Some analysts are saying wednesday maybe. You could be looking at later this week. Its not a today thing, thats for ure. And probably not tomorrow. And then all the logistics, about members not available to vote, getting members back in the house side, into town to vote theres some real flicomplicati solved. Not to mention the logistics of once there is a bill, how you get that out to the people who need it. Right one of the fascinating provisions, and we talked about this a little on friday, is this Small Business provision which i think will go a long way because in the provision its 300 billion right now, as authorized but could be increased over time Small Businesses can get loans from the government to fund their payroll to keep all their employees on the payroll if they dont fire anybody, that loan will be forgiven entirely so youre looking at free money for Small Businesses that apply. Its under 500 employees its up to 10 million per company. Its retro active to march 1st ultimately, you know, anybody thats been laid off since march 1st could be rehired that would go a long way to solving some losses for those companies. If they get rehired, do they also get back pay . If they get rehired they also get back pay to march 1st . Good question i dont know i dont know if they get back pay if theyre rehired there was a provision there was a provision that was retro active so you would get back pay until you were let go or, rather, based on when you were let go. I should also mention, i dont know if you heard about this, but in terms of i think it answers maybe beckys question a little bit of how this money could ultimately get distributed. Banks are probably the front line for this, but there is some very clever and Creative Ideas floating around washington including some companies over the weekend, including paypal using venmo service to get money to individuals into your pocket today. Amazon, which has a relationship with so many different vendors across the country, square, angies list which has its own relationship with Service Workers that have been displaced by all of this i think youre going to see a lot from the Corporate Community in terms of how the money could ultimately get distributed along the way. Big questions with how you actually the mechanics of doing that and then you have to hope, and i think most of these companies, i like to think, are going to be goodwill, will not take fees on top of this to distribute that money. Yeah, the they better not. The large bulk is going to be direct deposit to your bank account. Those payments to individuals, about 1,000 to each person, treasury secretary mnuchin said because the irs has your Bank Account Money from the last time they wired you a refund, they can just do that for a huge number of people but then, youre right, theres going to be a whole question about the unbanked and how you reach people throughout the economy who maybe dont have their information on file with the irs for a variety of reasons eamon javers in washington, d. C. , thank you very much this morning. Well be talking to you a lot more in a little bit meantime, investors bublging up for another tumultuous after the worst week on wall street since 2008 david bailen from Citi Private Bank weve been talking about how investors are effectively banking on policy, in terms of trying to figure out where this is headed, whether to stay on the sidelines, put money in if you have cash, and some people who even still, even with the down draft weve been on, want to get out because they think the down draft is going to continue what do you think . Well, it does depend a lot on the actual policy that is created. Youve been discussing it robustly it has to be done in a way that affects small and medium size businesses and governments the plan out there right now doesnt cover youll of that quite frankly, Citi Private Bank doesnt think its big enough. We calculated you need 3. 75 trillion in order to do all of that, to take us out about 120 days which is a period of time when the virus will have the greatest impact on the country and when the most number of people are going to be at home we estimate that total unemployment could reach for a very brief time 25 of the working population whats probably not known by most of the people watching is that a typical Small Business may only have 45 to 60 days of cash on hand one of the reasons why this is a different crisis is because we need to make these decisions now. As you talked about, really bridge the gap between here and the next several months. David, let me ask you a question about the market. One proxy for the market, at least one data point, i dont know if its fair or not, is to look at unemployment in this country. Right now the market is still in a sort of 2016ish range i wouldnt call it range, but relative to where we were in 2016 unemployment at that point was 5 jim bullard over the weekend said he believed unemployment in this country could go to 30 , which could be way beyond anything we have seen in the past generation. Even if even if after policy measures were taken were put in place, we were at 10 , that would put us back to 2010. Is it fair to use that data point to think about the stock market in some ways it is and in some ways it isnt its a very different type of recession we have right now. If the government steps in and gives the types of support weve been talking about, then you can imagine a far more rapid recovery after this type of recession because, in effect, what were doing is shutting thinking down and opening things back up. People before they came into this situation unemployment, 3. 7 the key is making that bridge. We think it can actually be done if its done well, you can have a rapid recovery youre absolutely right. Unemployment at the end, no matter what happens, is going to be way higher than when we went into this and the degree of stimulus will be incredibly important. Were optimistic that if a very, very large package happens and it is implemented very quickly, that it actually can work. Andrew, at the depth of this financial crisis, what was the s p, down at 700 maybe we need to get there 666. Do you think would that finally get to the point where were getting what we deserved at that point or still go down 50 . I dont think were getting i heard you i heard you. How about what was it 666 . Where are we, 2,300. Then that might be representative of where it should be with 30 unemployment, or still no . No. If you thought unemployment was there, i mean, i dont i cant even 666 i couldnt fathom it. Well, how long how long would it be 30 , andrew . Its not like it gets there because of underlying i mean, who knows how this comes back and when i mean, theres already people saying that the cure is worse than the sdeed itself absolutely. By the way, i think thats very true i think its very possible the cure is way worse than the disease. One thing i spent time talking to people over the weekend is how quickly you can get this economy back moving. I think theres going to be a moral tradeoff conversation in this country thats going to take place as early as this week about that very issue because when you think about even, frankly, the health and death depair issues that have arisen not only because of this crisis but because of some Economic Issues in our country before, people will start to have that conversation. Theyve already had it. You thought the Opioid Crisis was bad. That was a dry run. I think you talked to too many people over the weekend sometimes. I didnt talk to that many people over the weekend. I think youre talking to too many people over the weekend sometimes. But david, what do you think . I spent the weekend with my phone glued to my ear. I know. I know again, i think i think were looking at this in, should it go back to this or that the market is very good at valuing what is going to happen in the future. And i think that were talking here about a very temporary situation. Like andrew was talking about whether the cost of this mitigation is fair or not. Thats fine. We already decided on that policy in a sense, which is we are going to effectively go through a rolling lockdown across the country there has not been a centralized federal policy about this. And there doesnt look like there is going to be one and absent that, we are going to have to do income substitution, bridge businesses, support states thats almost a foregone conclusion we have to accept that reality right now. That debate is going to happen on the next crisis we have in this crisis we have to write those checks thats why this bill