New expectations about how long the covid19 crisis may last given President Trumps comments yesterday along with anthony faucis. Well talk about that in a little bit take a look at treasury yields this morning lets show you where the tenyear note stands right about now. Youre looking at 0. 367. The story we probably tonight talk enough about these days, lets show you crude prices because they fell sharply overnight. Wti crude now trading at 20. 53 if that was the only story around, youd think that would have a huge impact on markets unto themselves. Meantime, an update on the outbreak cases confirmed in the u. S. Now topping 143,000, 2,500 deaths. New york is the epicenter right now with nearly 60,000 cases in the state. Another 13,000 cases in neighboring new jersey in new york city, construction is under way to build an Emergency Hospital this taking place inside central park right across the street from mt. Sinai workers from the organization samaritans purse has begun constructing that 68bed emergency Field Hospital across from mt. Sinai hospital. Theyve been working on that over the weekend of course, also facilities being repurposed at places like Javits Center and others. Overseas the number of confirmed cases in italy reached 97,000 with more than 10,000 dead joe, how was your weekend, my friend thanks, andrew. It was you know, were all trying to figure out this new world. Its surreal, as im sure youre aware, andrew. There are times yep. Try to look for normal things going on. I cracked open a little wine kashlgly, i will tell you that much we are here at night and ive had bottles ive thought about in the past and lately ive decided, you know, why not lets have drink a little wine and try to return to some degree of normalcy but its tough its tough watching the toll the you know, the cases and the death toll i try to keep it in perspective, obviously, and hope for some type that the mitigation pays off. I know youre hoping for that, too. Well talk well talk about it in a little bit the optimistic note is that abbott news that happened over the weekend as well on the testing. That could be a gamechanger i think the fda is going to look at that combination, too, right . Or looking at well see, andrew i was surprised. I was hopeful about the market this morning that when i saw it last night, i thought it could have been another one of those days where were locked down limit. It came back as the morning went on were down a little bit today. And then, andrew, some of these names are familiar to me i dont know if you know john prine, hes more from my time than yours but the Country Music world mourning the loss of number one artist joe diffy. Whose name was mentioned in a more popular country song. 61 years ago, died from complications of coronavirus i think he was a big Country Music star in the early 90s i dont remember specifically but he had some big hits back then another grammy winner in critical condition, john prine, a gentleman i remember well from my youth, hospitalized over the week after a sudden onset of coronavirus symptoms he was intubated on saturday night and then did you know this gentleman, had you talked to him, 56yearold cfo of jeffries, peg broadbent. I had many, many years ago, peg broadbent. He spent 16 years at Morgan Stanley and then at jeffries he had been cfo since 2007. You know, as this as this whole pandemic progresses, i guess, unfortunately, we may be familiar with some of the other names. One thing that i dont know if its a positive, andrew, but there are people that have gotten it and the symptoms seem to be minor and then you hear that theyre doing well and then you hear theyre out tom hanks and rita wilson and others were getting inundated. Weve never had this much opportunity to be inundated from media with every different outlet. Nope. I should mention, by the way, because i tweeted out about it about a week ago, a friend of mine, and many viewers may know him, david lat who created above the law, a website every lawyer in america reads religiously, only 44 years old. He was in. Icu on a ventilator for about a week but hes off that ventilator and out of the icu. Thats great news. Were thrilled to see that meantime, we should move this conversation to washington, d. C. , where so much of the policy action is President Trump. Yesterday announcing he has extended the National Social distancing guidelines. He moved it now to april 30th. Eamon javers joins us with more on that decision and Everything Else thats happened over the past 48 hours. Yeah, thats right, andrew. Partly because of the statistics and some of the names youre citing just now, thats why the president said hes moving off this idea that he had last week of reopening the country by april 12th, around easter time, and now saying the social distancing guidelines are going to have to stay in place until the end of the month he said he hopes now that the United States can be back to something for normal by june 1st. This is how the president explained his decision in the rose garden yesterday. The peak, the highest rate of death rates, remember this, is likely to hit in two weeks nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory is won that would be the greatest loss of all therefore, the next two weeks and during this period, its very important that everyone strongly follow the guidelines so, the president also suggested that at this point a best Case Scenario, guys, is something between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in the United States obviously, were nowhere near that number. It looks like the number of fattalitie fatalities, at least in the way the president is expecting it, is going to increase dramatically over the next couple of weeks. The president spent the weekend considering this idea of a quarantine of new york, new jersey and connecticut it wasnt ever clear how that could possibly work, what the legal ramifications or legal und und underpinnings would be at the end he backed off it and just said he wanted to issue a travel quarantine. Well Pay Attention to whats happening at the white house all during the course of the day today. If you could weigh in on the other big debate, which is aille louing or not allowing new yorkers or people from the tristate out of the tristate obviously theres been this battle fight taking place with the governor of rhode island and the governor of new york youre seeing this territorier toal squabbling now and squabbling between the president of the United States, insisting many are asking for things that they dont need and ungrateful for the things theyre getting from the federal government i think its defensiveness on the part of political leaders who are doing everything they can to protect the area theyre responsible for. When you talk about locking down new york, new jersey and connecticut, andrew, how would you even practically make that happen are you going to shut down i95 . Are you going to close the ports and bridges . Penn station has to be shuttered. All of those things are incredibly difficult to do in a free society in the United States and theres no real i have new york city plates on my car, but if i was in rhode island, it sounds like they would pull me over with those plates on my car they might. They might dont try to come down here to maryland look, thats where we are. People are really scared and theyre seeing whats happening here it is terrifying, right . Theres also where i am the realities of locking down a region that big is so difficult. Sorkin, eamon, i consider this part of new jersey to be i never thought id say that, andrew, but we are new yorkers and im not leaving one state. I may be in new jersey, but its a 30minute drive. I happen to go over a bridge or through a tunnel what am i . Am i a new jersey person new york you cant separate this part of new jersey from westchester or any of the other bedroom communities. I actually thought about that. When i leave new york, if i go in there from the nasdaq, you know, be now i have to quarantine because im in new jersey i dont think were all new yorkers at this point. I may be more of a new yorker than you, sorkin, with you way up there in god knows where. I never thought id say that well, im in connecticut at the moment can i just ask, andrew the white house i was reading beckys back. I was reading about rhode island hi, guys. I was thinking about that when i was reading about the governor of rhode island. They were talking about usual the National Guard to go door to door to look for people from new york are you selfquarantining there for 14 days . We are completely sealed off from the world we probably werent sealed off at the very beginning because we made a run to target, walmart and a supermarket. But we now have more food than we im worried about all the fruit thats going to go bad we have a lot of frozen stuff. Yeah, our plan is to hold out as long as we can thats the plan. We have not seen anybody else. This is us. Were kind of doing the same thing where we are its crazy. Its crazy i think its the right thing for everybody. I think so, too eamon, what were you saying . Meantime, becky is with us i was going to say, becky, that the white house spent some time last week looking county by county across the country. You know, there are 3,000 counties in this country or more, trying to decide if you can separate out the counties that had a high infection rate or low, counties that were dangerous, counties that were safe when you look at that, you realize the interconnectedness of all these counties and the touch points between them, as joe was just saying. Theres so much travel back and forth. Its unworkable to really say were going to seal off this county or advise you cant have travel to that county because theres so Much Movement in american society, even in this lockdown. This stuff has to move people have to go places otherwise the whole society breaks down. Okay. Were going to head to break im hesitant to ever talk. This gets difficult when were all in such delays well power through this coming up, markets are in focus. Two weeks ago it was the dows worst Weekly Performance since the financial crisis that was followed last week by the best week for the dow since 1938 notwithstanding the big selloff on well, less than 1,000 points its all relative. The wild ride on wall street is set to continue. This morning we have been down quite a bit. Almost unchanged well see how it finally plays out at this point. Back down significantly again. Well talk about what comes next tethbrk. Flexshares may look simple on the outside. But inside every etf. There are untold hours of careful construction. Infinite what ifs . And contingency plans. Creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. Tap untapped potential. And strengthen confidence in you. 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Welcome back with two days of trading left in march, the dows on track for its worst month since 1998 the u. S. Equity futures right now are at some of the best levels weve seen. At least when we went into break. Well check that out u. S. Equity futures. Lets bring in liz young, by mellon Investment Management in looking at your notes, im not sure im not sure youre sure what investors should be doing at this point. Were at the beginning of a bottoming process. Expect a lot more, perhaps, downside based on what happens with the virus start thinking about certain areas that look that might be attractive down the road does that sum it up for you mostly thats a pretty good summary. Hi, joe. I think what i would start with is you cant separate the market and Economic Data from the health data here we have so much uncertainty. We havent hit a peak yet. We hope we hit the peak in midapril in new york and april across the country once we get on the other side of the mountain, investors can be a little more certain. The reason its convoluted about dipping your toes in because we had three days of gains last week and everybody wanted to call the bottom. Everybody wanted to say monday was the bottom i dont know that he with can do that yet, even if that is the furthest we go down peak to trough, i dont think were out of the woods and going to continue to go up on a trend Going Forward. There will be more pain to come. It depends on how big your pain for threshold is because, liz, the previous breaks weve seen have been more significant. 2008 or even 1987 and weve had a big break, mid30s, whatever it is. But others have gone almost 50 or so. If you could decide, in other words, were still a fair amount above the lows we set. Wed have to go down another, what, 10 , 12 right now to get to the lows and add another 10 , 12 on there before youre not getting too cute if we only go back down to the lows and 5 below that, longterm you could make a case that some of these prices might be good entry points you cant call the exact bottom. Only if you thought we were going to set really significant new lows would you not have to average in at least a little bit at this point, or is that wrong . You totally step aside thats fair heres the numbers around it if you have an investment time horizon more than 24 months because on average we get back to the kind of range we were before a crisis, within 24 months, but theres still outliers to that when you look at what the lows are, what the peaktotrough decline is without a recession, were about in that range right now. We compare a lot to that 1987 crash. That pullback was 33 . So far the biggest pullback weve had here was 34 so, if we dont go into a recession, this feels like enough if we do end up going into a recession, its typically deeper and longer lasting as you pointed out, 2000 and 2002 was 49 2008 was closer to 57 , 58 . If we do have a recession, which we still dont know, if we do have a recession we have more to go that doesnt mean you cant dip your toe in the water. You dont want to miss the whole thing. Even if we retest and go below 5 , as long as you have time to wait it out, you still have a pretty good valuation on things. And then you have to decide what type of recession were talking about, too, i guess because theyre not all created equal. This could be unprecedented in terms of how quickly we went into it and how quickly the markets sold off and maybe we dont have a v, maybe we dont even have a u. Maybe we have a w or l. Those scenarios you can describe pretty well. Its not necessarily one of those structural recessions from things heating up too much and the fed tightening and the kind weve been used to in the past this is because of the virus solely and i dont know, a, whether its it should be defined classically as a recession or as a really quick break and then a quick move back up it depends on that, too, doesnt it it does and i think what we also have to remember is that this pullback and this economic sudden stop is part of the cure for the real cause of this thing. So, the virus is the cause here and part of the cure is that we had to inflict shortterm pain we had to purposely stop the economy in order to slow the spread and in order to save lives. Thats again why you cant separate the health data from the Economic Data. The good news was it wasnt an Economic Force that took us to this point were hopeful there isnt anything structurally wrong with the economy and hopefully theres not too much vulnerability in the market that the government cant backstop that this is a long recession. Best Case Scenarios are a deep v, bigger v than we originally thought in early january and february or a u. The other good news with that is both of those cases means we return to previous levels and we ro recover fully. I cant thing of anything close except maybe 9 11 where the personal terror that you feel for yourself and your families and youre loved ones and for society in general is almost is worse than the terror you feel in the Financial Markets. But to have to deal with both of them at the same time is just very, very daunting. Even 9 11, you know, we heard about sleeper cells and all those things it wasnt like this. It wasnt so pervasive and allencompassing liz, thank you appreciate it. Andrew and becky, when i wake up in the morning, i have to say, you know, every person in the world is waking up its not me you know, its not like, geez, your life, youve got these horrifying things going on in your life. Its like, every human being waking up is like, oh, crap, coronavirus. So, its its crazy ive never experienced anything like it. Everybodys got the same problem. Were all united with that front anyway very true, joe. Very true. I miss talking to you guys. It was nice during the commercial break where we left the mics open and talked like we havent talked in weeks at this point. Its good to have you guys here. Its good to be here with you. We havent had a chance to talk over each other in weeks. Its been a long time. Amen to that. We have a lot more on the program, so lets tell everybody whats coming up in a little bit. Workers at several companies are speaking out theyre now threatening strikes and demanding better responses to the outbreak. Well bring you the latest headlines straight ahead as we head to break, here are images from the Pandemic Impact from yesterday across america. Americas oldest lighthouse has weathered many storms. Seeing the break in the clouds before anyone else. Together, well weather this storm. Welcome back to squawk box this mornin