Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 13, 2024

Statistics in march the Dow Jones Industrial average finishing down 13. 7 there were three drops of 2,000 points or more overall, the index traded in a nearly 9,000point range and half of the dow 30 lost more than 10 or more of their value for investors, all within a 31day month where so much changed in the markets and really, so much changed in the world. Also, you know what changed . Oil falling 67 so far this year a number of oil stocks have lost 90 of tlheir value in 2020 all because of demand destruction and the price war and the economy on edge because of, what the coronavirus. Covid19 and when the White House Press Conference Begins we will take you to any major marketmoving headlines or headlines concerning your health that you need to know from that press conference when it begins and now a daily occurrence at 5 00 p. M. Eastern time i am bright an sullivan and i know it was a tough start, and guy adami, tim seymour, Karen Finerman and chris vrone guy adami, lets do what we do here and that is focus investments and give some sound advice the vix fell today, but its still at 53. Volume is down although elevated from a month ago all in all, i think you might agree another reasonably orderly day for the equity markets im glad you mentioned orderly and again, great to see you, brian orderly is the word. You cant underestimate what it is to get back to some semiplans of normalcy and the markets. I get it the vix at 53 is still an absurd number especially when you look at it in the context of what we were talking about three or four months ago, but thats off, obviously, the recent highs and it moved lower today despite the Broader Market moving lower, as well thats encouraging i dont want to be pollyannaish, and i took good things away from it today that and the fact that there continues to be some semblance of normalcy again in the bond market. So those things are encouraging and the s p and the dow not withstanding today tim seymour, did you find anything or maybe the same or different encouraging about this market today well, at midday we did our production calls and seeing the s p had 33 basis points and said wow this is a lovely july day and the takeaways are the markets have certainly priced in, if youre the bull and you say the markets have repriced the coronavirus and we have the central bank thats buying everything that moves and this is the case where pessimism got to that point where there was extreme. Bears are going to rightly point out that we have no idea what the Economic Data impact going to be. We know the data will be poor and we know there are terrible p. I. Numbers and at this point these are the moments when data bottoms and im not saying that we have is when you want to be buying equities even though the world doesnt want to be a great place. I will continue to say, brian, that we got to peak pessimism already and i think thats something that is generally good for the markets when you have this wall of worry ill tell you what, tim i wish you were right. I wish it was an average july day. That sounds pretty good right now. Karen finerman, good to see you, although i cant see you, our audience can youio look at this market. Goldman sachs coming out with a Second Quarter gdp estimate for a contraction of 34 i mean, i think tim used the term cartoonish with some of these numbers yesterday. As a fund manager, do you pay anyattention to this data, karen . Well, i mean, thats a pretty unbelievable headline. I think thats an 8 quarterly gaap contraction and then annualized, but either way you slice it, even a quarter of it is still a horrific number i think that is possible i mean, who knows . Who knows what kind of contraction were going to see but ive been pleasantly surprised that both tim and guy talked about a little return to some normalcy. This was your run of the mill down 400 and change day which didnt feel bad at all relative to some of the other days weve had. The credit markets opening and functioning and thats really important. I mean, the idea that today Carnival Cruise talked about doing a debt deal, a junk deal and a convert and equity, thats astounding to me that they would consider that so, i mean, ten days ago it would be a complete nonstarter and i dont know if theyll get it done. Well see, but the idea of that is so amazing, maybe they dont have a choice, no matter what. To me than the equity markets functioning. Even with the terrible 34 chris vereone i was lookinging at Technical Analysis was off the relative strength indicator a couple of days ago and we knew for a while that during the abtechnicals seemed to be mostly out the wend owe and has a sense of orderliness also returned . The pattern, the charts and the things that you look at . I think it has. I know we dont know here and were all playing in the dark, but when you put this into some type of Historical Context as tim talks about, as well, you were in the historic, historic oversold camp and the number of stocks was as bad as weve seen since 2008 worse than we saw in 87 and worse than we saw at the 62 low and to put this into some type of context, you have to go back to those data points and say okay, how did markets respond from here in the past and what we see historically is the returns over the next number of weeks or even over the next couple of months can be very, very random, but looking out six and 12 months in the future they tend to be very, very, very strong i think it notable that under the surface and even on a day like right now where we had s p lower, risk was not bad. High beta was better than low beta any breadth was not bad you had just as many stocks up as you had down, so the internals are starting to thaw weve seen it in Corporate Credit and the vix ask put call ratios and those are helpful over the surface. I dont want to get personal and i dont know about you, but i can tell you when we do the 8 15 companywide call the moment i get off it, i get on Johns Hopkins and new jersey. Com i start to look at case totals from around the world, from the United States, from new jersey, from my county in new jersey obviously, looking for some signs of hope. Is that the primary data point that weve talked about before that will ultimately move equities, with those numbers, as bad as they are start to roll over and go down, we talk about humanity are those the key data points and rather than the Goldman Sachs gdp number yeah, Goldman Sachs gdp number and anybody can throw a number out there and i understand that to care knows poi karens point and thats what sort of scares me a little bit because everything you read, hear or watch on television indicates that were probably still seven to ten days away from this thing at its worst which is really somewhat so if we were to see the things that theyre warning us against that could be somewhat disconcerting and it is good that were getting back to some level of normalcy here im not saying were going to retest the lows. I have no idea i do think theres a chance and chris row will probably accept this as well that we do a 50 retasment ar retracement and get to the 2790 level which makes sense, but with that said, to your question, thats the overriding factor here for everybody. Tim, would you agree with that i would i do think we have some data points remember when we first started turning a blind eye to whats going on, and i mean markets, we were turning a blind eye to what was going on in asia and china and we got a sense that this was going to be a moment and even in investing in asian securities that there was a sense that wed seen it with sars and two to three months out and 9 to 12 months out this was something that you were buying as an Equity Investors and hey, chinas back china was three months ahead of us in terms of the impact. Macro isnt something that should necessarily parlay into the u. S. Economy last night china released pmi which were in expansion territory, 52. 3 on manufacturing, and 52. 0 on services and these are numbers that were drastically better and i realize that again off of what base and off of what comparison, but thats the good news the good news is that chinas secondquarter gdp we talked about u. S. Is going to be down 1 in the Second Quarter and the duration and this is back to the question of how long before we get to essentially inflexion points in the country. Is someone determining how the Economic Impact is going to be and we have companies and countries that are further along in the process than we are south korea, china, great points i want to get to our guests in a second and we have numbers crossing on cnbc and a fund manager and jeff saying that the coronavirus selloff is going to worsen again next month in april taking out the march low i have one headline foh on equie thinks well mack a new low, agree or disagree . I disagree. Whats important is this market deteriorated before anyone knew how bad this virus was it will heal itself before anyone can believe the virus data will look better and well look to funding markets for some evidence of that and thats where the fed has been effective over the last two weeks and we have returned to some normalcy in the macro world and i think the most consensus word out there is retest. Everyone is talking about a retest theyre only retesting hindsight. Lets bring in our guest, oppenheimers Asset Investment chief investment strategist. Welcome. I look forward to having everybody back on set with melissa and the whole gang that day will come, by the way i promise. But lets talk about right now and you heard me mention the headline by jeff gunlock and do you believe well make an overall low for the stock market next month i dont believe we will i think weve likely put in the low or we put in the low it really depends upon the quality of the news flow related to the virus were held hostage by the virus, but right now based on what weve seen, weve seen improvements in the now, and the response to the virus and the response to the economy and the market all of this is beginning to flow forward. Initially, the response was like the three stooges for those who remember or abbott and costelo. Who is on first, you know . A lot of mayhem, but what weve got right now is were beginning to get it together, whether its ford, gmor Brooks Brothers making masks and ventilators and other types of equipment were beginning to come together there is a moment here that appears like rosy the riveter. Yeah. John, listen, you cant see my house ive got a picture of the lemans ford versus ferrari and theres a scene where he said we defeated germany and we won the war by building these bombers plane and were putting the might of the public and private sector together. I get that were going to get this. The United States will overcome it somebody will come up with a vaccine, j j, regeneron or multiple vaccines, well do it so thats good, but lets step back to where we are right now which say lot of people who have sold their investments and we know that from the data. Hundreds of billions have gone into money market funds. Should that money be put back to work in the u. S. Equity markets right now and if so, where okay. Wed have to say this, first of all, anybody putting money back into the market theyve got to know themselveses. So essentially they have to right sign expectation and be realistic that whatever they buy can fluctuate significantly. They need to practice diversification and they need to look at babies that have got know thrown out with the bathwater, the stocks that have Good Business premise and Good Management and have the capability to travel in rough waters and like who . John, who is that . You know, ive got to give you sectors in this because im limited to what i can say by compliance what we can tell you is we want technology we want industrials and we want Consumer Discretionary as the three main plays here. We want to be cyclicals instead of defensives in terms of sectors and we saw the utes getting hit today and the rates were having a tough time and they were very popular in an overbid of defenses and sectors we would say, but we want to position for coming out of this, even though its early that said, people have got to understand themselves and know what their risk tolerance is because if they dont have risk tolerance they probably should stay on the outside, but we would have thought most people should not have sold their equities if they were properly diversified and they should have held or ridden or gone through the course of this when you hold on to what you have, the reality is usually in the upswing when you come out of these things and you pivot and start moving upward usually the gains that you have from the lows happen in a very, very short period of time. Yeah. If people were so worried that they sold out the problem is when the market starts picking up, theyll miss it to the upside thats what usually happens. Yeah. Youve got to have confidence you have to have you have to have confidence in your convictions. But fear and panic are hard to overcome and thats exactly what we had i think about a week ago. John stoltzfus, thank you for being on i look forward to having you back on set. Karen finerman, consumer discretion, guess what there might be a lot of companies that dont make it through this in terms of being equity, if you know what i mean. Were there any Consumer Discretionary names that youve been buying over the last couple of days . Well, one i tried to buy a couple. Starbucks i did buy. I think that they will come out of it. We have their road map from seeing what happened in china and how theyre coming out of it there, and so i think thats one that i dont think we will get another chance maybe we will i dont know if we do get another chance to buy it in the 50s, i will buy it in the 50s and probably higher, as well. Home depot, i think we might get another chance there, but i know that i am not going to be able to pick a bottom, so ill buy even if its not, you know, if its not at the lowest price ever once you see that lowest price and you think ill wait for it to get back there again and sometimes it never gets back there so even here, i still like a starbucks so thats one and theres only just target is sort of Consumer Discretionary and sort of a grocery play and thats another one that i like so those are the there are Good Companies out there and the Balance Sheets and thats where you want to be the ones with the good Balance Sheets and Something Like starbucks rid in the front of Consumer Discretionary because i am concerned for the broader retailers. As are a lot of people. What do you want, guys, we have more coming up this hour on c nbc, the president saying we need a couple more trillion at the problem and specifically with infrastructure. Interesting notes on Airlines Getting grants and ceo pay and tim seymour will give you his views on that, along with an analyst and as a remind e the white house nightly Coronavirus Press conference has not begun when it does, we may dip in and bring relevant headlines and well be right back with cnbc with more. Back after this. When you look at the Critical Issues facing our world, what do you see . We see a billion more people breathing free. We see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. We see homes staying cooler, without the planet getting warmer. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Shbecause xfinity mobilehen ygives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 300 off when you buy a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. Thats simple. Easy. Awesome. Go to xfinitymobile. Com today. All right welcome back to cnbc, everybody. I am Brian Sullivan and i hope youre having as good of a day as you possibly can in the country that you are watching. Thanks for joining us. We have a couple trillion dollars and we have the president and congress doing a 2 trillion stimulus plan, but the president doesnt believe that may be enough in pafact today the president tweeting out that we need to get a 2 trillion Infrastructure Program going as well. The president chris verone has been hot on infrastructure and all of those infrastructure weeks nothing occurred some of the material and gravel makers and asphalt makers they soared today, are you a buyer or recommender of some of these names . Think these stocks are interesting and theyve s. T. A. R. T. Ed to outperform a little bit, as well and its not just going up in absolute terms and outperforming, as well a name we watch side jacobs ticker is j and the longer term trend there is still intact, and i think thats important that these stocks or this group is not at the scene of the accident here and thats the big problem when we think about discretionary and airlines and whether it was a state in 1991 or tech in 01 and teches in 08, they never returned as secular leaders when the cycle got better when you look at these infrastructure stocks they are at the scene of the crime here and that puts them in a good spot for leadership coming out of this. Guy adami, any of the infrastructure names wet your whistle . Martin mariota comes out mlm, before the date in march was it traded down and basically held levels we saw back in 20 sxa2016 and Vulcan Materials and the other stock with levels we saw in 2018, but again, these stocks arent necess

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