Before, and indeed is doing right now with the boston fed itself, running a special fund to back up money markets he says that regulatory changes will allow restructured loans from the banks can be brought to the Federal Reserve and be funded that way, and wont be frowned upon by supervisors, so kind of an encourage from the Bank Survivors to get to the to work with their customers and restructure loans. Finally, says its the need to support essential workers and its the best of times here for the public spirit here let me just talk about this rising unemployment rise dramatically were only looking for 0. 2 of an increase in the friday jobs report, but thats not going to pick up whatwear seeing in the more frequent data we had north of 3 million claims last week. Expectation for tomorrow is north of 3 million as well both of those together would raise the Unemployment Rate quite a bit by itself. So were looking beyond the data, tyler and kelly, because its not necessarily going to pick up this monthly data is going to pick up whats really happening in the economy ive seen estimates today from Oxford Economics that as many as 20 Million People could be unemployed in april. That compares to 15 million at the height of the 2009 crisis. Guys and to further illustrate that, steve, bank of america thinks the jobless claims figure this week, remember, it was already 3. 3 million this week, will be 5. 5 million. Thats a pretty staggering increas increase ive estimates as high as that i havent seen the b of a one. There are some people who say they may have to go back and revise last week during the financial crisis in 2009, we never had as many continuing claims as 7 million and that took about 20 months to get there. Were going to get there in a week or two weeks of time. Its one of the things thats going to keep that number down, i believe, is that the state offices just cant process it. So we may be going back and revising data. Its going to take the official data a time to catch up and then hopefully, the rep bound will outpace the official data as well, so thats why were looking and weve been talking on this show quite a bit about alternative data, ways of measuring the economy in realtime in a better way steve, one quick question, where does rosengren fall in the spectrum of fed president s well, he was hawkish for a bit there. He wanted the fed to go a little bit easier last year in terms of reducing rates he was very concerned about the corporate debt market. And by the way, thats proving to be a sort of prescient warning, if we had gone into this crisis here with less leverage and less corporate debt, we might be in a better place where the fed might have had to doless. He was very concerned about low rates increasing the level of corporate debt thats out there. Once it turned and once the fed got down to zero, rosengren is a fullout dove here. Do i coo . I mean, a fullout is anybody not on board with this at the fed at this point . No, there was one person, we had a Loretta Mester on yesterday. She initially didnt want to raise lower down to zero, because stheflt the transmission mechanism was gummed up and it wouldnt do good she wanted to save that, but nobody from the fed, in fact, kelly, you remember the 08, 09 crisis there was a lot of debate and hand wringing about the fed going too far. A lot of political, a lot of ideological economic debate. Everybodys onboard with this. Everybody, i guess you could say, is a keynesian or even, dare i say, an mmter in that nobody seems concerned about deficits the only thing i worry about with this latest bill is, will we have the firepower to do more later. Its possible, if this were to go on, that were going to need another round of stimulus here thats quite a way to set us up to talk to mr. Santelli steve, thanks so much. Steve liesman. Rick, weve talked about the differences this time and youve said it yourself. Youve got no problem with this. Last time around, you had the housing bubble it was like, why would we try to get back on that path. This time, its a pandemic its different it is different, but im not sure everybody has the differences really outlined clearly. First of all, if you have a Baseball Team and you take all of their bats away, what happens to their batting average, kelly . Pretty much goes to zero i think this parlor game of initial jobless claims and 30 unemployment is absolutely useless and ridiculous and, i think this everybody, conventional wisdom, that were going to shut down quick because weve turned off the economy, but were not necessarily going to come back quick, i dont believe that either. And im certainly no keynesian and i dont believe in modern Monetary Policy or any of the new wave, forget the deficit to me, the Biggest Issue i compare potentially what were going through to 08, 09, is on the backside, okay because i think on the backside, they need to mop this up a little bit quicker than ben bernanke and janet yellen did on the 07 08 crisis, but i dont have a problem with mr. Rosengren, i dont have a problem to moving rates to where they moved them, and i certainly do have a problem with some of the regulatory issues or the re repo, liquidity, or the dollar swap programs, or the commercial paper programs i think all of those are great but i really think that a 30 Unemployment Rate is absolutely meaningless, because it isnt coming from weakness within business its coming from a shutdown from the outside. Absolutely true, rick its a selfinflicted shutdown Rick Santelli, thanks very much. For more now on what we can only describe as the kind of ugly action on wall street, at least as far as equities are concerned, as we kick off the Second Quarter, lets go to bob pisani hi, bob. Hello there rosengren didnt have a big impact on the markets, but weve had a nice little rally on the market since cuomo stopped talking. 2489 right now and the s p 500 so a rally going in the middle of the day the fed, mr. Rosen was talking about buying mortgagebacked securities they could certainly use it in the reit space theyre getting clobbered again. Office reits are down big. Shopping mall like simon, the usual suspects, theyre getting hit rather notably big drops in the reits today the regional bank, theyre going to be stuck with nonpayment of mortgages. And those things have not performed even on days when the markets are rallying all moving to the downside retailers are hitting new lows, as well below 2 billion market cap. And hanes, nordstrom, gap, theyre a 2 billion market cap youll see other Companies Kicked out into the small cap spaces now that these numbers are down the one company that best reflects the way the market performing is cocacola. It tracks the market better than anything else and has a good exposure to the overall Global Economy as well as the u. S. Consumer economy and coke versus the s p yeartodate, its pretty darned good, almost tick by tick. Guys, back to you. Bob, thank you, sir bob pisani weve got some breaking news the Biggest Energy ceos are headed to the white house. Lets bring in brian sullivan, who has more for us. Bri . Thank you very much, kelly. This all breaking right now and sources telling me that on friday, in person, i might add, ceos from at least seven companies will be meeting with the president at the white house to discuss Energy Policy a source tells me they are not looking for a bailout of any kind they want markets to work, but the ceos we have learned here at cnbc who will be attending at the white house, and again, in person, including the ceos from pretty much all the big names. Exxonmobil, chevron, occidental, devon energy, phillips 66, Energy Transfer partners, run by kelsey warren, probably the richest man in texas, if not number two, and the former ceo of continental resources, harold hamm seven, at least, ceos will be going to the white house on friday, kelly and tyler, in person to discuss Energy Policy. Brian sullivan, thank you very much. And from Energy Policy to automobile sales, toyota out with its numbers for march and they are pretty bleak. Lets go to phil lebeau with the numbers. Hi, phil tyler, they are bleak in the First Quarter, toyota sales here in the United States falling 8. 8 , just a little bit weaker than the edmonds estimate of a decline of 8. 6 but forget about the First Quarter, because we knew that january and february were relatively strong. What happened in march gm and Fiat Chrysler have not told us what happened in march they only give us q1 sales but toyota gave us the month of march. This is a glimpse of how bad it is for the Auto Industry a decline of 36. 9 for auto sales in the month of march here in the United States for toyota. Guys, you combine that with hyundai saying they were down 43 last month and a few other automakers that were expecting to hear today. Bottom line is this. The Auto Industry in march has pretty much shut down. You can expect that to continue into april the question is whether or not the incentive offers that are going to be coming through, maybe in april, in may, and theyre out there already now, when do they start to get people to come back into the showroom all right, phil, thank you very much. Phil lebeau on the numbers out of toyota. From those brutal car sale numbers to the ugly start to the Second Quarter on wall street, lets welcome in jeff mills. What an introduction, jeff im sorry to be such a downer there. Hes the chief Investment Officer for bryn mawr trust. Good to have you with us what do you think about what were seeing today a lot of people are saying, whats really taking place this afternoon is that the quarter end rebalancing is over. Now were off on a new foot and it isnt too surprising to see that we would give back a little bi bit. I think thats true if you think about Market Action in the context of historical bear markets, what were seeing right now is not unusual if you go back to 2008 from september to december, we saw six rallies between 9 and 19 . The fact that we rallied last week as much as we did, its typical of how oversold we were prior to that. And we ended up with the second best fiveday stretch in history. And i went back just to see how markets typically respond after stretches like that over the next three months, just to get an idea of where we might be headed so looking at the ten best fiveday stretches over history, the news is not great over the next three months. The markets are only positive 50 of the time. The average return is actually negative 1 versus positive 2. 2 for all threemonth periods. So what were seeing right now is not all that unusual in the context of a bear market and to the point that we were just making about auto skpaels the issues with energy and just general Economic Data overall, i think were going to have to continue to digest numbers like that, and thats going to make it really hard for the market to rally sustainably over the next couple of months thats sort of the thing thats been on my mind as these numbers come out, Rick Santelli can dismiss them, but theyre going to be there nonetheless. How accurate they are and lasting they are is a matter for debate, and rick is right to raise it were going to also start seeing an awful lot of corporate numbers just like toyotas that paint a very, very bleak picture. So it wouldnt surprise you, would it, if we test the lows from last monday it wouldnt, at all and i think investors understand that Economic Data is going to contract, but i dont know that we fully understand the magnitude of that contraction. To ricks point, i think were going to need to dive into the data a little bit more i look at the manufacturing pmi number that we got this morning. On face value, it actually didnt look that bad it was actually slightly above expectations, in contraction, but not awful. If you look under the surface, there are some knnuances there that are important to understand thats the sign of high demand in a growing economy supply deliveries have slowed down dramatically, but its because of the issues with the virus nap reading was 65 that actually propped up the index, but actually for a bad reason if you look at new orders, that fell eight points to 42. The largest decline that weve seen in over ten years thats more indicative of the type of environment that were looking at not only is the data important, but trying to parse exactly whats going on under the surface is going to give us a better idea of the true magnitude of the slowdown were facing so lets go into the living room of the typical american investor i hope they have a living room as beautiful as yours. Its a lovely shot that you have right there. But a lot of people are just plain afraid of what theyre seeing in the news, the photos theyre seeing, the pictures, the numbers, theyre worried, theyre anxious. The older they are, the closer they are, maybe, to relying on their portfolios the more anxious they are. Is this a good time, then, to be making Investment Decisions one way or another or are you better off just sitting tight and letting the whole thing ride through . Its a great question and weve been getting it more and more and a lot of the questions sound like, hey, should we get out of the market and wait for the dust to settle and get back in . What i will say and what ill warn people against is that really doesnt work. If you get the timing right getting out of the market, you might feel vindicated over a couple of week period if the market continues to go down. But that second decision, that buying back into the market is extremely difficult. Think about what we just went through. Folks that sold at 2,600 on the s p 500 probably felt pretty good as we trended down below 2,200. But all of a sudden in the blink of an eye, we were back to 2,600. What do you do at that point do you buy back in in anticipation of the market continuing to go up . Do you hope that the market rolls over and buy back in lower. Its really difficult to continue to make those really smart decisions and time things properly in the midst of all of this what i would suggest is to be patient, be careful, and not make Investment Decisions that are predicated upon the broad market moving up or down pick your spots. Look for areas that you believe are going to outperform, once we move past all of this. So i think about areas that have gotten really beat up, lately. Small caps, midcaps, value. There may be more pain in the interim, but if you look off of typical market bottoms going back to the tech bubble, those are areas of the market that tend to do well over the next ten months be selective, pick your spots, but certainly all in, all out is not a good strategy here jeff mills, as always, thank you very much. The United States has tested more than a Million People for covid19, but states are still reporting a dire shortage of tests. Meg terrell joins us now with a look at where testing stands in america. Meg. Hi, tyler well, it really depends on what state youre in. We have a map here showing you the variability across states by 100,000 people so new york, obviously, has done the most tests and that stands up when you look at its population, as well but washington and louisiana also testing the most. You can see here, we did finally surpass that 1 million test market it is the commercial lapse that are providing most of these test more than 800,000. But still, so many backlogs, quest and lab corps among those processing the most tests. Quest saying it can do 30,000 a day, and returns results in four to five days for lab corps, its 20,000 also four to five days for the results. But they both say that could be longer or shorter depending on the circumstances. If you compare the u. S. With other countries doing a lot of testing, it is true the u. S. Has done more testing than those other countries, south korea and italy. However, when you look at that on a per capita basis, were way behind south korea has done double the number and italy, even more than that joining us now to discuss the u. S. Response more and some creative ways we could use to understand the direction of the epidemic is dr. Eric topol of Scripps Research thanks for being with us on the phone. You wrote an oped for medscape just a couple of days ago saying this could go down as the worst Health Crisis and the worst handling of a Health Crisis in u. S. History tell us about that right, meg, i dont think theres any question about that. The problem is 45 days, the critical lack of response. The first patient in the United States was diagnosed in Washington State january 21st. The same day as that in korea. And we didnt have, essentially, any testing for 45 days. And that allowed for this massive spread throughout the country. And so now even though theres a surge of testing, its so late and theres been so much infect activity in the u. S. And hot zones across the u. S. And in many cities, so as you point out, there is a lot of testing right now, but the critical period was missed and that difference is south korea contained the outbreak they flattened the curve very, very quickly they had a very limited number of deaths. They had extensive testing whereas we are going to see of course, a big toll in deaths and were the epicenter of this pandemi pandemic what more do you think the u. S. Needs to be doing now, even after that missed time, can we be doing better on the response currently . There are many things we can do, of course. We cant have a defeatist attitude and i think the main thing is, we cant just rely on testing, because its so late and such a high rate of people who are