Arabia and anybody else involved energy has been the big mover here today its remarkable to me. I want to point out apache at 4 it was a 60 stock a few years ago. Yet people are still buying it it always amazes me. Continue n contin continental. Restaurant, weak today a breaker came out and suspended its guidance unably all the stocks in that space. The red robins, papa johns, wendys d wendys, dominos are all down 5, 6, 7, 8 partly for the same reason, kim kimco came out and suspended guidance as well thats not helping their competitors out there. Utilitiel down yesterday if theres a rent holiday, the banks, the utilities are all going to be hit by that. You till ti utilities not paying the bills those are the three sectors that could be hit pi any rent rent holiday. Not paying bills and the Shopping Centers are bearing the brun brun brunt of that pain back do you. Thanks very much. The number of americansrocketing over the past two weeks. Lets get to steve for the e e details. I want give you some recent commentary they are saying we are almost certainly in a recession noting the claims numbers this morning and come paparing it to a hurri but a hurricane thats affecting the entire United States all at once and saying hes unclear if this will be a fast bounce back or something that takes longer Robert Caplan saying he has questions about what happens to the consumer and how long this goes on. He did seem to be sticking to his idea there was a relatively fast bounce back questions creeping into that, the speed of the recovery among Federal Reserve officials. Part of that is the unbelievable pace of the jobless claims rise. 6. 6 million reported this morning. That is unbelievable record versus 3. 1 estimated almost double the number take a look at the past couple of weeks we went up 211 to 282. 3. 3 million last week to 6. 6 million this week. I modelled in conservatively what all that could mean using a couple of assumptions for the Unemployment Rate. Assuming no hiring out there and the vast majority of the claims go into unemployment and you come up with right now given these numbers. 8. 3 Unemployment Rate but it could already be 10 it wouldnt be out of the order right now for that to be that high these kind of claims are something that you expect to happen even more in coming weeks. Some of the states like new york were much lower than we think they will get. New jersey as well california may be on pace already. Closer to almost 900,000 but theres still a lot to come when it comes to these claims numbers. Thats what people are asking they are saying if some of the biggest population states are only now to shut things down, what kind of levels here could we reach well, part of the problem is going to be the backlog in the ability of the states to process. They have seen nothing like this that 6. 6 million that filed or reported to have filed in this past week, is equal to the total number of continuing claims from the 2009 recession or the peak oift they had many months i think it took like 20 months to get up to that high of a level. This happened in just a week theres two problems here. One is the backlog. Two is more people are eligible and three you know these state offices for unemployment are experiencing some of the same problems working that everybody is its unclear if they can get everybody in i have to imagine theres been something of a heroic effort to get these number of claims filed and you keep hearing the stories. People cant get through they cant get on the website. I would expect these numbers to keep going up over time here until we reach numbers ive heard for the month of april, 20 million on the plate for the month of april thanks. Stocks have just turned negative on the dow a moment ago. We were up more than 500 at the highs. We were hanging on a 7point gain for the blue chip s p is up about a third of 1 but the nasdaq and russells are lower. David is on the line hes the chief economist and the cnbc contributor dave, are there any points that people are missing about the nature of the layoffs and the shutting down of the economy right now . I dont know what kind of letter shaped rebound you thip we might have at this point we have no play book for this theres no real template that we can rely on. In the past i think that we have to build an assumption here that we could be in this isolation mode or the social distancing, you know, through not just the balance of this quarter but into july i could see the canadian government, the Australian Government made some comments along those lines. I believe we will get through this and were in the eye of the storm right now. Were just entering into it. But, i dont see theres going to be significant recovery even after we see this improvement on the case curve and the start to leave our homes and start to work again i think that until we get the most important data point for me is when we get a vaccination thats when things will get back to normal or quasi normal. The recovery, until we get a vaccine, that will be the point that much will feel more comfortable spending the way they were before the virus hit we talked to the chair of madurna last hour and he emphasized we will need all hands on deck. Well need a lot of supplies maybe a lot of different approaches others are different i wonder if were going to have that single headline or that clarity. Its going to be piecemeal. Even getting a treatment would be helpful and to so fuful to st when you look at the sales data that people arent spending be way they were before 70 of gdp is Consumer Spending. I think there will be a prolonged period of caution. On top of that some will figure out who will pay for the fiscal largese. Who will pay for everything that had to be done to get us there theres no such ming as a free lunch. You have to believe the current generation of taxpayers, some of us will be paying for this its not just going be future taxpayers. Maybe you want to Pay Attention to the personal savings. We went into this at every level of society next thing you know an economic crisis becomes a liquidity crisis i think how businesses and households approach liquidity, how they approach cash and the Balance Sheets is going to be a lot different than it was before its going to really cause us to be, im not causing it an l shaped, i think its going to be a loong term series im talking about years. I hope wrour wroyoure wrong you make a lot of good points. Does that imply that happens only after Interest Rates start to rise. We just issue as much as we need to thats a great answer. Will the answer be the fed did we head into debt mo monetization at some point be we go that route and the fed loses control of the base, then youll find people who have been in the declining bond yield cap no such thing as a free lunch. It will be higher tax in the future and that will cause the savings rate to go up. Or if its done on the fed Balance Sheet, it will come out with more inflation. People wont believe that they will say it doesnt matter how big the Balance Sheet is when we get past the worst of the recession then and youre taking a look at what happens between the money supply and velocity and look ive been in that camp for a long time. I was saying for many years that qe on its own will not precipitate a big inflationary cycle and it didnt happen theres no such thing as free lunch. People seem to think we can align the feds Balance Sheet and its infinite. If thats the case you have to ask yourself the question why havent we done this before. We could have avoided every recession in the past. Theres going to be risks on this down the road and the risk will be in the next economic expansion and once we say we absorb savings that we have, there will be inflationary consequences a it will be for the time frame. Thanks for your time today. I have coming up, in the u. S theres more than 226,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus. Thats nearly dub the numb lly r in italy and spain Health Care Workers are facing a pay cut. The virus closing doors for many stores as retailers are forced to scale back and layoff their employees or furlough them stay with us we cannot do all the good that the world needs. But right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. To everyone working to keep america strong, thank you. You should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. You should be mad at forced camaraderie. And you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. But youre not mad, because you have e trade, whos tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. Dont get mad. Get e trades simplified technical analysis. vo theyre adapting to supporto their communities. S. But many need our help. If youre a Small Business in need, or want to help a local business, go to quickbooks. Com smallbusinesshelp intuit quickbooks. Retail continues to get slammed by the coronavirus with foot traffic falling to zero, courtney is here with the next shoe to fall, the next round of layoffs in these cases were talking about furloughs. By my count its been about 60 brands so far that has announced them these numbers will keep rising this amounts to 100 of thousand offense employees. These joined the previous furlough announcemented by macys, kohls and others. The majority that are furloughed will get to keep the Health Insurance if they previously had it with these employers and in many cases the employers are picking up that premium. They are eligible because its a furlough by my count ive got 220 large brands closing stores. Thats more than 67,000 locations. Thats likely well under counting what is closed because of the independent names and some of the other retailers that havent made large announcements. They are included in numbers that ive been tracking. Many salaried employees are seeing their salary reduced. Many ceos are taking no salarie and 401 k matching programs are being frozen or suspended by retailers include macys, chicos, lazboy and others we just got some news from the irs that i think is relevant where they say that americans can expect to get direct deposits for these stimulus relief checks quickly but that if you dont if the irs doesnt have your direct deposit information it could take up to 20 weeks to issue paper checks five months. Im sure means more people will have to look to their 401 k s righ right . The short answer is yes we serve 9. 6 million retirement investors. Thus far i would say they have showed tremendous restraint with respect to making changes to their Asset Allocation they typically stayed the course we found only about 1 of our customers have made changes to their portfolio which is just incredible given the market volatility i do believe given the unploim claims the last couple of week and given some of the actions that are being taken by the manufacturing retail and Hospitality Industries that well see distribution from 401 k its the last resort we would prefer they not exercise that option but in some indicatio indications people will need to. I thought it was interesting that on any given moment about 20 of people might have a loan out against their 401 k that was going into this crisis, right . Thats correct. Oftentimes people will take out loans for short term need and then they pay themselves back. They are tapping into that loan over a period of time. The challenge is people will need to pay bills. A lot of the bills were talk about are the essential Monthly Expenses they include rent, utilities m they might include a car payment, Student Loans on a number of those fronts the government is trying to give people relief. On the mortgage front. Certainly on the student loan front. We know landlords are trying to work as well with tenants. Would it be better off for people to try to get documentation and consider not paying those bills knowing that its understood thats not going to happen as opposed to tapping their 401 k , something that could be harming them substantially in the future as well absolutely. I think banks and landlords and general and other lending institutions are demonstrating a lot of flexibility and a willingness to work with individuals. If you think about where we are today in the market, the s p is down 26 and ideally what youd want to see for those that are continuing to employed is to use that payroll deduction one of the things were finding very interesting is of the people that are making changes to saving rate, twothirds are increasie ining their savin. Its their for retirement and i want a dollar cost average into this market. If youre unemployed or furloughed you dont have that option i would suggest the last option should be tapping into the 401 k oftentimes people will talk to their advisers we give people guidance over the phone. We take 25 to 40,000 phone calls a day. Its typically not about people to change their investment they are looking for reassurance and guidance into what they should do. At a time like this, it can do a lot to make sure you dont harm yourself in the long run. Thanks for joining us. You bet ed murphy is the ceo of empower retirement well have more on President Trumps claims that russia and saudi arabia have agreed to cut Oil Production as millions of americans are losing jobs, many are unable to pay the rent as the Real Estate Market comes under pressure. Who is left holding e thbag . Well talk about the fall out. Were back in two. Machin at t has connected us every day for over 100 years. And were here for you especially now, doing Everything Possible to keep you connected. Through the resilience of our network and people. We can keep learning, keep sharing, keep watching, and most of all, keep together. Its the job weve always done. It is the job we will always do. Welcome back lets get the latest on the coronavirus. Hello, good afternoon the global death toll has gone above 50,000 spain has suffered 10,000 deaths and the u. S. Toll has risen above 5300 a new survey finds doctors are very concerned they dont have the tools they need to find the coronavirus outbreak 73 say they cannot test patients quickly more than three quarters think their hospitals or clinics do not have adequate supplies to help address some of those shortfalls, the federal government is distributing masks and personal equipment supplies were seized earlier this week by the fbis hording task force robert craft, the owner of the new England Patriots has sent the plane to china to bring back respirator masks hes giving some so massachusetts and new york thanks. Hospitals are overwhelmed with the number of coronavirus patients its good to see you why couldnt they hold off on these cuts its kind of the cruel irony of this pandemic that were seeing physician groups, hospital vs s have to cut back n nonurgent procedures. Billings are way down despite this immense demand for emergency treatment for people with covid19. The Revenue Streams have fallen off a cliff. That has meant that physician groups and hospitals have had to give front line Health Care Workers who are treating people with coronavirus a pay cut or a benefit cut so their hospitals that have deferred salary payments there are physician groups that have cut off 401 k contributions and paid time off and discretionary bonuses. They are seeing a cut to their compositio compensation its not what we want as the public or what the hospital wants. Is there more money coming from the federal government or somewhere. We cant afford to have hospital closures and clinic closures as theres this immense urgent demand for people that want to get tested and people that need urgent treatment for coronavirus. Theres been a lag and its impacted a lot of these Health Systems. Well see what happens in the coming weeks ofly, it doesnt seem like its imminent that hospitals and other Health Systems will be able to resume those lucrative but not necessarily urgent needed this week or tomorrow procedures that keep them afloat how hospitals across the country are fairing. Those that have seen what happened in new york or washington state, were they able to better prepare to kind of either handle what could be an influx of coronavirus patients or just prepare for having to shut down these elective procedures and all of those sorts of things . I dont know that state by state i could give you a trend of who has been better prepared or worst prepared. Were seeing hospitals struggling to keep folks supplied with masks and other other personal protective equipment. We have seen the federal government take dramatic steps to scale up capacity in new york city and los angeles you have these hospital ships that President Trump continues to talk about. We have field hospitals in new york city popping up there does seem to be a lifeline capacity were seeing shortage of vent lat ventilators and the new England Patriots airline landing back on soil transporting masks. That was telling of the situation a lot of hospitals crisis or not, you cant call them new york pratriots. Im from the west coast and the raiders have moved away. Good to see you we appreciate it very much coronavirus fears have taken a huge toll on new york city real estate. Well explore how bad it could get, next. San francisco is locked down, vcs, those who are back in start ups arent immune to the layoffs. How Silicon Valley is dealing with it. Were back with our breaking News Coverage. Stay with us welcome back the big gains have mostly ev evapora evaporated the dow is down. The s p 500 is up still about. 4 to 2480. It was a big session for oil thats mostly moved stocks around on the close oil was up a little more than 23 it was just shy of its best day ever the wall street tweeting somewhat of a rebuttal to the story as well. Listen, numbers are just hard to come up with. Im looking at a citigroup note as we do that. Got to hold that tweet and spike the oil prices you can get the oil 10