Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713

Month. Regents financial down 18 just catastrophic week this is a week chicos down 43 the kohls. Gap down 28 these stocks have been cut 50 or more in the last couple of weeks. Utilities another sector look at plain old run of the mill electric power companies. Regulated e lelectric power company. Believe it or not, this is a calmer week than it has been in the prior three or four weeks. The volume is about 30 lower than prior weeks the intraday swings are two to three below. The vix is below 50. We were 80 three weeks ago guys, i take no solace in saying were down 2. 4 on the week. In terms of all the craziness we saw two and three weeks ago, this is calmer a month ago i would have thought myself crazy to say that but it is true. Back to you. I think you should try out the vest, bob, thanks. Lets get over to steve who is digging into this devastating payroll plunge as tons of americans are left without work during this pandemic kelly, i got to advise you and tyler to save your adjectives shocking, devastating, stunning are all true by all accounts theres much more to come this job decline only picking up the first part of march or the sec week of march before the majority of the layoffs that we know of have happened. Theres been ten Million People in the second part of the month who filed for unemployment claims inside the report is some data that will probably tell us how this thing will go, at least near term. I want to go right to looking at by sector. Leisure and hospitality down by 459,000. That health care of doctors and dentists office, social assists is close child closing down. Professional Business Services temporary health, retail just leading edge of what were about to see and construction taking a hit losing almost 4 of total employment restaurants and bars almost 3. 5 on down 1. 8 for child care the clothing business, 1. 3 of total employment looking inside the household survey, some more details emerge theres 1. 5 million additional people working parttime because they couldnt find fulltime work 252,000 not at work because of illness. Thats a very high number for this tiechl yeme of year theres also some mischaracterization. The survey responses guys are very bad the people who do the surveys go out and knock on doors they cant necessarily didnt this time around do some of that most of it was by phone. This is the leading edge of whats about to happen its going to get worse. All you can do is think about the other side of this on that note, steve, thank you. We have breaking news out of bank of america on their Small Business Lending Program ive got some numbers i just got off phone with bank of america they are the first of the biggest banks to open their process to apply for Paycheck Protection Program loan. As of ten minutes ago they had over 60,000 applications totaling over 6 billion worth of requests. Astonishing numbers there. They have over a million Small Business customers if it continues at this rate and moe most of their clients apply, numbers will be bigger 60,000 so far. 6 billion of requests so far. They are adjusting their policy to now address all Small Business clients that they have with a checking account. They dont now need to have had a previous lending relationship with the bank. You and kayla discussing last hour how that attracted a bit of heat from senators like marco rubio. Its kind of a loselose situation. They were trying to do that for clients they had the most detail on be p either way they have adjusted the policy as things stand. Those numbers highlight they have been open to 60,000 customers in a way that perhaps some of the other banks who hnts opened yet were. Some pretty staunching numbers it is a first come, first serve basis which worries some Small Businesses if it goes past that total 350 billion, they will be open to extending that amount. Thank you if you take this number and you take it and extrapolate it across all the banks this is one bank 60,000 today alone take that across the major banks and take that to the td banks and the local banks that are doing this you just wonder whether the computer infrastructure is going to be able to handle it or is it going to be reminiscent of initial response to obama care back a half dozen or so years ago. The numbers are just unbelievable tlouts the last couple of days theres been criticisms and complaints flying around who will be ready by midnight, who isnt going to be ready. Clearly for any Small Business that thought they would be getting the money and hasnt gotten it yet, the pain must be indescribable. If we get to the end of next week and everything is up and running and running smoothly, youd have to say a program this would have taken many, many months to get ready and if the banks get it going with the space of say two weeks as opposed to one week, initially, then perhaps thats something that would have to be applaudsed at the moment were still stuck in the middle. All right thank you very much. Lets groive you a quick market check. The dow industrials are moving off the lows of the day when we began the hour they were down about 500 points now down just a bit less than that as youll see in a moment ive got a bit of delay on what we call return here in my home studio again, the markets on pace for yet another down week and a rocky one. Lets turn back the our coverage our next guest says the relief measures taken so far are not nearly enough to help blunt the affect of coronavirus on the economy and that businesses are facing an acute cash vacuum. Lets welcome in joe davis hes the chief global economist at vanguard. Mr. Dairvegs yvis, you say ther acute cash vacuum that will crash upon us but you also say the gdp is likely to have a downward spiral that we havent seen since the 1930s my question to you, sir, if that happens, is the stock market ready for it has it discounted that possibility. Thanks for having me, tyler thats stuff to answer there may be volatility ahead. The market is increasingly pricing in a pretty somber outlook. Some of the policy responses wel the Federal Reserve and the kars act. I think its insufficient given the head winds we are facing ron, you cant really imagine what it would be like if we didnt have these maneuvers from the treasury and congress and from the Federal Reserve do you think theyre going to be enough to stabilize things the amount of damage that is being done by the minute in the economy is really incalculable i would agree when you look back across history weve never seen an automatic shutdown of the economy like this. Even if you go wback to the depression, there was a build up to the weakening it occurred over three years and reached it in 1932 when the Unemployment Rate hit 25 . Here were likely to hit 15 to 20 in a matter of weeks, if not months, which is something we have not seen. The relief programs, so far, ive been reviewing some of them because im Small Businessman myself seem to be quite reasonable i do expect they will have to be extended its hard to imagine they will be able to fill a multitrillion dollar hole in the economy in excess of the 2. 2 trillion relief package thats been passed theres also another 4. 5 trillion will lending from facile tisilties in the federal verv reserve. Unemployment insurance will be extended that will hopefully help mitigate some of this. Are you in the camp that believes the return to Something Like normal is going to be swift or are you in the camp that believes that maybe were in for not just a quarter or two quarters but maybe a much longer time where we bump along the bottom economically. Wish i had more confidence in it i think we will see hoping that they will come when the virus really dissipates and we can lift some of these containment workers. When that does, i think well get modest growth rate bounce. I think were in a vulnerable stage here the next several weeks and months are critical because theres building solvency credit issues the economy ultimately needs cash, not credit i think as ron said, i think that the assistance to Small Businesses will need to be super sized by my estimates. Sg i want to ask you both a final question as we have been talk over these past couple of month, people have been saying at least this is not a financial crisis like 2007 to 2009 yeah, i think that might be optimistic on the parts of those suggesting this isnt a financial crisis its an economic crisis. It has to a certain extent mo h morphed into a financial crisis of sorts clearly the banks are far better capitalized and are not the source as they were in 2008 and 2009 having said that, when you see the number of levered loans and the high yield market which grant it spreads have tight tennesseed of late, when you see the dislocation going on in credit, theres going be some problems there that mirror a financial crisis maybe not to the same extent we saw in 2008 or 09, but its going to ripple through the system joe, ill give you the last quick word on that question about whether this could morph into a financial crisis or may already be one were on the precipice of credit issues accelerating were in a critical juncture id like to not completely close the door and say a crisis is a fore gone conclusion but the next several weeks and months are an important point thanks very much. Gentlemen, stay safe have a good weekend. The white house is set to meet with Oil Executives this afternoon as crude prices have fallen 43 in the past month it was worse a couple of days ago. Theres been a bit of a bounce back eamon is covering the meeting and Everything Else from the white house today. Were expecting that meeting in about 45 minutes time were told the Oil Executives will meet with the president directly and larry kudlow to set up the meeting was talking to reporters earlier today. He was asked if the United States might consider cutting back back its own Oil Production out of the gulf of mexico as part of a global cut back. Here is what he had to say earlier today. Production cuts arent a discussion have been President Trump talking on a number of occasions with president putin and mbs of saudi arabia. President trump believes that they have given agreement anden spat saying the production cuts the white house are envisioning are over in russia and saudi arabia and saying the president believes he has a commitment i think the emphasis is on the word believe the russians have been skeptical about a commitment Vladimir Putin said he could see a cut around the world its not clear how much from his comments he envisions russia doing as part of that cut and whether that vovrs the United States cutting as well all of that will be on the table here for this Oil Executive meeting. One of the big issues im told, they will be talk about is this idea of tariffs on saudi oil thats something that a lot of people in the oil industry believe the president is interested in doing but a lot of people in the oil industry, some of the big producers dont like that idea. Some of the little guys do like it well see where it all lands at 3 00 p. M thanks. Great reporting as always. Coming up, well have more on oil, the market turmoil, the s p and another volatile week down about 3 its utilities leading the declines once again today. You can see them Many Companies are laying off employees despite the federal governments effort to provide relief for businesses. Some are doi ingt in an unusual way. Well dig into that story, next. But inside every etf. There are untold hours of careful construction. Infinite what ifs . And contingency plans. Creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. Tap untapped potential. And strengthen confidence in you. Flexshares. Powered by over a century of investment expertise before investing consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. For a prospectus containing this information. When yowhat do you see . Itical issues facing our world, we see a billion more people breathing free. We see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. We see homes staying cooler, without the planet getting warmer. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Welcome back the number of americans losing their jobs is skyrocketing as more and more companies are laying off employees in a new way amid the coronavirus outbreak we have more on that for us. This is a conversation that perhaps we never expected to have but in this age of social distancing, a lot of companies or some companies, big and small are turning to video conferences Software Programs like zoom to virtually layoff some of their workers. Class past confirm they had the layoff some of their workers via zoom sephora did layoff about 3700 seasonal and parttime workers for sephora part they say they have employees all over the country. Though it was a tough decision, they felt like conducting these layoffs in this method was the best way to do it. Some have called it callous. We speak to one worker from sephora. She tells us there were more than 100 people on that same call take a listen. Its just the fact that it happened and it came so suddenly after we had been told we would be taken care of and still be on payroll. We would still have jobs sephora did offer the workers some severance with the Hashtag Boycott sephora on twitter saying the way this happened was callous and urging people to stop shopping there. Back to you. All right ill pick it up from there thank you very much. With more more people out of work, what could the next few months look like in this country. May mayor, its great to see you obviously, this illness so far, so far is centered in large urban areas which is really your constituency what are you feeling out of those kpluncommunities . In theres a great deal of anxiety and fear in my hometown of new orleans we lost Ellis Marsalis and a number of other people that were prominent in the Community High School Football coaches and others its beginning to touch very close to home. This becomes something very different. People know, people who have lost their lives its beginning to hit close to him. You have a Public Health emergency thats initiated an economic emergency the third thing is the level of uncertainty. We dont know when physical distancing will end. We dont know when broad testing or vaccine will be available were looking into the future and theres a great deal of uncertainty all across the land but certainly in urban communities where the virus numbers have been high dont say because its high there, it cant come to me baud because of the spread of this disease. Its now in every single state and territory in the United States to a different degree we dont know what the future holds. The spread and the speed of transmission of this disease is something that is really just something we have never seen, at least in my lifetime i was speaking to a physician maybe six weeks ago and he said every one in this country will know someone who gets sick and most people in this country will know someone who passes away from this. I want to turn the conversation in a different way i know youre a spiritual man. What is this doing to our soul its challenging our soul because its forcing us to be patient. I think have faith its also challenging the sense of optimism. Its easy for there to be great deal of doom and gloom because of the uncertainty and the fact this is global in nature its not in one community. Most emergencies may affect a community. A Natural Disaster may affect a region even a Global Economic downturn like we experienced ten years ago. It did not have the affect that this is beginning to have on all of us. It tests our faith but it tests our perceconfidence in ourselves human beings we got have faith and pray for Health Care Workers and those on the front line we got to pray for the elected and Public Officials who are working, i think, for most part, in a diligent way to help to lead the best and most responsible responses to this. I was going to ask where you turn for spiritual help now and you answered it. Let me angle another question a different way. Peoples sense of selfworth is tied up very intimately in their work and what they do. It gives them a sense of worth, a sense of contribution. When you see 700,000 people now having lost their job in the past month, six Million People yesterday filing unemployment claim, what will it do to peoples selfworth and how lasting do you think that damage could be its so stunning, ty, the actual numbers that we see and phone calls ive fielded have been from Small Business owners that have 50, 75 employees to people who were selfemployed. For a minute they get their bearings and they begin to wonder how will i make it a month from now or two months from now are these Government Programs going be temporary or will they help me transition to when the economy is in deeds bdeeds bettr the uncertainty and anxiety that is beginning to affect people and family children not being in school not knowing when they will be able to resume their studies will they have to repeat a semester or a grade. All of these are considerations and factors that are affecting the average american, American Families and people at every level of the economic ladder those at the bottom, the working people who work from paycheck and live from paycheck to paycheck will have the most amount of s

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