They have been choppy for the dow over the last few minutes. Theres your picture now nasdaq outperforming yet again up for the fifth time in six days all of it factoring into the debate liz young, bny melon director. We want to begin with stock. We have been all around a little bit. We are green aacross the board the dow is towing the line what is this action telling us about where you think we are and where we might be going on day with we got another tom lee who said not only is the bottom in, were in a bull Market Recovery reflect whing what he told us on this program the other day i like tom, i respect his research i dont disagree the bottom is in it doesnt mean were not going to see it again. I think the rally is pretty fragile. There hasnt been a good reason to rally up to this level. I dont think its unreasonable to see well see another 10 to 15 pull back before we get a decisive and durable move upward the list of things that could surprise the market is much longer than the list of things that could surprise us to the upside here. Joe, i want you to comment on something that was tweeted you have the so called maga stock, the microsoft, amazon, google and apple which are going one way up and you have the bank stocks that are going one way down pla it plays into the conversation about what are we watching are we watching a stock market completely disconnected from main street the banks are the more telling of the two and the thing you need to watch out for more than you need to cheer the upside if those tech names what do you think . The world will change maybe the investment world is changing and maybe we talk about the dow and the s p. We probably should not have that much relevance anymore maybe its about the nasdaq and exactly what we see going on has the market bottomed. Its bottomed in the nasdaq. When you see v recoveries for multiple stocks, stocks trading at their all time highs. Financials, energy, industries cannot continue to lag as they are and for us to have the expectation that the s p overall is going to march above 2851, the high from tuesday. At some point you have to give a fair understanding that it cannot be alone. The amazons, the microsofts and apples taking us higher. I would urge investors not to chase those names. I think thats the wrong strategy be glad youre on those names but you could have been chasing them in the weeks prior, i dont think thats the prundent strategy does the move in these big mega cap tech names represent the strength or do the banks and the big sell off continue to reflect the true underlying weakness in this market and thats going to drive us whoever that their volume up on their tv please turn it down scott, i think youre asking a good question. What we have seen from the beginning of this bull market, you can look years back and say that the tech names, the digital platforms, the Communications Companies droefr tve the market higher they outperformed on the way up and the way down in this recovery, the last 26 where the market has come back, they have also led i think its really playing against the odds to suggest they wont continue to lead what youre asking is can the market go higher without participation from other sectors. Not necessarily im not necessarily asking that. Im simply saying when you look at the market today, you can either hang your hat on this move in those tech stocks or you can say we may go back and test the bottom or we could give up another 10 or 15 or 20 because the banks are telling you more to the downside than the tech stocks are telling you about the possible move to the uppupside okay. I believe were seeing this limbo phase where at around 2 2800, were up from 2250, more or less. We made up more than half of the shortfall. About 33 the market fell. The digital and tech stocks are telling you more right now about the market and expectations than the banks are. The whole company has problems as do Tech Companies if we go through this limbo and even if the market treads water whar , what we need is find some similari clarity on how we reopen whether its around testing, clinical trials. Whether the Treasury Program is working. The market is watching that. The market is encouraged by what its seen so far with intervention, fiscally and monetarily we know theres bad news about unemployment the market took that pretty well today. I wouldnt dismiss what we have seen and the actions that the treasury and fed have taken and what the market is believing the benefits of social distancing, so far, and compliance has been. We track what Governor Cuomo he does say the stay at Home Business closure orders will be extended by two more weeks to may 15th i wonder, as we came on the air, you had certainly a better looking market picture than you do at this very moment i wonder if we have just given a little bit back on that news its hard know and things have been a bit volatile even on each side of the flat line, if you will in the dow. Its something to keep an eye on as we talk about this move to get back to business as normal i also wonder whether the bond market is screaming at the bulls in the stock market that you guys are way ahead of yourselves the bond yields are telling you theres severe economic stress its not just all the stimulus have done. Its a true sign theres weakness tlouweak ness throughout the economy and the bond yields should be paid more attention to. Maybe thats true scott were seeing the banks have basically had to carry an additional load because not only are they the conduit for a will the loechbs that go out but theyre not paid on loans where people are forbearance they are stepping back we understand why. Thats why that sector is so weak right now you look at a lot of stocks that you name fangs in particular or fang man at the top. Those stocks, those tech names scott are driving higher because theyre not as dependent on that and the government hasnt used them as a conduit and with the shut down they benefitted in some cases amazon, netflix, target and walmart loved to have people in those stores as far as walmart and target they also seen a dramatic move as most of us have had to buy so much of our stuff online you have the banks carrying an additional burden and you have these others that are getting lift from a lot of the spending that goes on because it has to through those measures the risks, jim, in all of this, is the recovery takes longer than people think on that note, i want to tell you, james gorman was with us earlier today. He said no v shape recovery. Thats not what he sees. Hes the Morgan Stanley ceo. Its not going to turn on a dime its not going be a v. Best case is a u and an l. Lets listen to larry fink, if we have that the risk for the market today is the disease curve takes longer the risk for today is we dont have americans and europeans doi feeling very comfortable with their environment. That will be taking time what im saying is i just dont see a rapid rebound. I see a rebound that will take time as we develop the testing we develop the antivirals before we develop a vaccination is this a stock market thats reflecting a v or just a stock market thats reflecting its content with the view of a larry fink its going to take more time, but still able to look beyond the current state of the crisis. The nasdaq 100 looks at the Current Situation and says its pretty much what it was four months ago thats an indication that the market is a bit ahead of itself. The flip side is i dont think we have to revisit the lows of march 23rd because of the enormous amount of fed stimulus and fiscal stimulus thats in the system what you do with that is i think you really have to be a stock picker we let off this discussion talking about the maga stocks. You can see why amazon is rallying google is one that i own i think it will take time for advertising revenue to come back same thing with look at a microsoft. Thats a lev capitheavy capital expenditu expenditure. They will be a bit reluctant with whats going on with their own revenue. I think you have to take the balance here and find the stocks that will work for you in the short run like an amazon but just be a little careful with the ones that are longer term like a google or microsoft that now is not time to load up the boat on those stocks this is where the action is netflix today. Youve had a new high in that stock in the recent days you had the target race today. Price target to 480 at jpmorgan. Price target to 350 in line. Amazon all weather name at barclays top idea at jpmorgan this is what people are talking about. How are we supposed to think about those stocks that have ripped and have run and continue to have price target and calls on them that are overwhelmingly positive i think its a good argument to make that stay at home stocks and the Technology Stocks that were always using regardless of the fact we adjusted our behavior will see some upside. For the long term i would buy into that notion right now, however, i think whats happening is there a bit of misguided risk a constitupt. I dont think this is justified. Were seeing a lot of the big under performers come back on rally days i dont think were really to have that strong of a Risk Appetite i would caution people not to jump on a momentum band wagon here kerry, do you agree with that i think its a very good point. Remember the tech giants are also part of the solution. Whether its able to allow people to where they are positive i understand that theres this argument about invasion of privacy. We all want to be able to get back to work and to be able to resume our lives what youve heard from a lot of Tech Companies is that they are going to participate in ways to test, to track, to you know, conjunction with all sorts of, i think, attorneys general in the United States who know that we have to solve the problem. Youve heard positive things about their participation in this effort which also is helping the stock prices we have 10 out of 33 names that are flat or up for the year. Those are primarily those large tech names do i think thats reasonable given this environment it seems bit extreme you keep using the word a little bit a little ahead you dont sound like you truly think were way ahead of where we maybe should be am i misreading you . You know, scott, were in an environment where money on the sidelines earns zero that the bond market, unless you trade it provides such a small yields its very difficult for people to feel comfortable with out the opportunity to buy index funds is huge outflows for whatever reason whether its black box buying or people saying, now were at a level that seems to be reasonable multiple of normalized earnings. Theres just been a huge amount of buying. More buying than yes, i would have expected. We expect there had to be buying some stocks, you know, as always moved down too fast and they move up to fast. I dont think its easy to judge how much is the degree of difference relative to what should have been the appropriate level. I just think we are in such a strange environment with other options for your assets that this is created the kind of strange pricing and here we are with names, i wish we had another name you really see that the bias of investors toward those platforms that have sustainable earnings versus in distress and very vulnerable that is certainly playing into this, scott i think you nailed it just 15 minutes ago as cuomo said that the extended shelter at home order would go into the middle of may thats one of those negative news items that causes the markets, if not rolling over hard to say people lets take a little risk off. The positive news is when they decide to refill that sba because we saw on cnbc. Com today that the sba has exhausted the 349 billion that were allocated already. They need to figure that out. They need to figure that out, by the way. Like that they need to figure it out like that they need to move like the fed has moved. No kidding. I totally agree with you also this netflix surge where are you going to get the boost and who is being held back banks are being held by by zero Interest Rates as well as the obligations they have with forbearance. Netflix sign ups in the last two weeks, scott, are up over 100 according to aour alternative data daily active users are up 8. 5 this is the biggest jump that netflix has seen since 2019. Worldwide visitors they breaking all of their records, so to see netflix getting that huge ben fits of us being sheltered at home, that extends along with cuomos and governors orders as much as we dont like it. All of these stay at home plays just continue to do better liz young, in terms of what people are doing in the market, you guy, youre buying some small and mid caps it preface this by saying i think its okay here i think its okay to be dipping your toes in theres really nowhere else to go for future expected return than the equity market you want to make sure you have exposure and making sure its diversified on a barbell risk stand point. On the end of the higher risk barbell, i do think small and mid cap over the long term to do well here. Theres a lot of companies in that space that will benefit from adjusted space going forward. This contactless or frictionless society that we may see for years to come and for sure well see until we get a vaccine for this virus kerry, youve added to home depot, paypal, visa and twilio why did you add to those they were not waited, the other accounts because they were prices that we felt were really very tractive for the long term. Home depot, Home Building is down those stores are still open. I think they have been extremely good corporate citizens toward their employees. They are trying to be kind of proactive about the way they are running their company. If you look at paypal, everything took a hit in financials but more people who are paying through whatever processes theyre using have started to use paypal. Thats not going to stop even if you have less spending on certain type of experiences, youll still be spending and using some type of system that involves a frictionless environment. People arent going to shortchange their pets even if uf to bring your dog or pet to the vet and do it with social distancing we havent done that yet youre still taking care of your animals. Stock came down. You dont get many opportunities to buy it cheap. We bought twillio when it kra d cracked last year. Your dentist is not sending the text to show for an environment. Their business is off but their business will pick up again. Its at the center of it they had the leading market share. They are the most proprietary of those companies. Jim, mr. 8 , i mean mr. 10 thats where you are in cash today. Yeah. How are you thinking about the cash today i just want to think in with you. I want you to have this running dialogue on how youre thinking about some of the cash you keep raising day after day and when you might deploy it. Yeah, right thats exactly what i did. I was listening to what kerry and liz were saying and i was thinking those are fine investment ideas they are i just dont want to do it today. I think we have a good 10 lower in the stock market. Just like yesterday, i hate being negative, scott. Im sorry, im going to be negative whether its the macro pictures that are unfathomable or the specifics of mr. Munoz at United Airlines saying you know what, after september 30th, after this first batch of government money runs out were probably going to have to do layoffs. You add that with mr. Cuomo saying another two weeks i think ive got time. The more i work in this business, the older i get, i find that patience is an incredible virtue. Im going to exercise it here. Sure the president wants to reopen the economy we all want to get it reopen as soon as we can the reality is youre not going to have heavy gdp centers reopening any time soon. You may get some markets open all across certain parts of the country. The real Economic Centers will be slower than maybe some people realize. The governor saying another two weeks minimum of this stay at home deal. Just pushes out the runway to get people back in business. Its eartbreaking. Those were the guys who were going to advertise whether its in the local newspaper or google im sorry, i dont like being negative and its hard for me, then i look at the russell 2000 and i applaud you liz for stepping in there. I just see such disaster though that i want to sit tight i want to sit tight. I just wish we could pick up the phone and call the market itself and say how long are you willing to wait. Whats a reasonable time frame youre willing to wait to get people back and reopening the economy. Ultimately thats what this conversation is. It comes down to the market right now is at a place that good number of people think is maybe ahead of itself. How long is the market willing to wait for some semblance of Business Activity to get back. Doints wa i dont want to use the words to normal but just back open how long are we willing to wait before the market throws its hands in the air and say you know what, this is absurd. Our enthusiasm got the best of us this felt a little euphoric and now we need to go back to some place, even if its not to the 23rd of march lows i think may 31st i dont think the market wants to see us stay closed or shut down into june we have to assume this bleeds into the Third Quarter it bleeds into Third Quarter economic numbers and earnings. Even if we see a little 5 pull back the market is baking in some time of v shape recovery in the second half of the year. If this lasts through may, even into june a little bit, thats where we get a pull back remember, were going to hear about that were going to start baking that in if we get a signal it will happen much sooner i think that april is the important month. We may have some developments on these stimulus checks lets go down to d. C what can you tell us the Washington Post said theres so much glitches to get checks out to millions of americans saying millions of americans will be delayed in getting some of those checks because of glitches involving h and r block and some of the tax preparers like turbo tax theyre not able to get the direct deposit throughout those tax preparers which serve as a middleman between the taxpayer and the irs. Also some glitches involving depen dent childr dependent children this will affect millions of americans will see delays unexpected in getting those 1,2 1,200 stimulus checks reached out to treasury for comment, well get it to you as soon as we have that thanks. Between that news and the running out of the money of the Small Business loan program and the grant pr