The market did give back gains we had seen earlier in the session. Part of what we had been seeing with wti prices. Oil prices up. Wti potentially having seen the worst. Talking about disney in a minute they are reopening disney shanghai on may 11 wti up 3. 5 . 23. 40 it has been a long time since weve seen these levels, andrew. It is joe, or becky. We may have to get tacos for joe at the end of the month. Dont worry about me, andrew. Thats like 6 for 12 tacos. What we have to worry about is the hypo allergenic malte opinion poo or whatever. I told you id be happier to see stocks higher so i could buy my own dog i thought, wait a second. Doughnuts for andrew taco bell. Then she slips in the hypo aller againic labradoodle. Shes smart. Andrew, where are we at we could be at 3,600 or 1,100 by the end of may who knows the reason i said that. Over time, i would have never bought stocks on may 1, which makes me think i should have well see. By the end of may, well it may be obvious to buy on may 1 we were reopening but it really wasnt obvious there was a lod of layoff notices weve seen coming through. The adp report jobless claims and the jobs report on friday how about disney if the world some day resembles the world we used to know is that not the greatest asset now 100 or if you think things will some day be back to normal, isnt this what you want to buy . You might lets get to our corporate story, which is disney we can have the discussion you are right. In a normal world, this would be a great discount the question is of course, how long the challenge persists for. Shares are trading lower. The Company Expects a bigger loss cutting profits by about 1. 44 million. Hit by a decline in advertising and movie delays the cloerz of its parks. It will skip its Dividend Payment as it tries to save some cash the Company Plans to open shanghai next week on may 11 well walk through what that looks like kps complicated. Here is what bob chapek said it may include implementation of guest capacity as well as health and prevention procedures that comply with state and federal guidelines we are seeing an encouraging sign of some return in china when they do open disney shanghai has the capacity of Something Like 80,000 people will start with 24,000 people or at least ramp up to 24,000 thats a cap put on by the government there as part of some of the social distancing measures that will take place. Well watch that closely to see what kind of demand there is even talking about potentially getting back to the cruise business well see. We talked about this at the dinner table last night. The conversation if they actually reopened disney world or land and had a limited number of people coming in, can you imagine how great that would be not to have the lines. Youd have to feel comfortable being among the first. We were game playing with the kids last night if you could go the number of rides that you could get on maybe it will be more attractive there might be a big pent of demand of families i dont know whether theyll wear masks, the temperature taking i notice that blade, the Helicopter Company will not just take your temperature but check your oxygen levels thats been considered a sign. That is a sign but that doesnt show up early. Well talk about those disney earnings the motion was that comcast is very conservative and talking disney right now there is theme park issues disneys array didnt really include that sort of 50 stable business some people would make the case that their assets were pure in a period like this, the conservative Balance Sheet and broadband busy dont know what they do. Well have jessica on. How about that concerned Balance Sheet. In the past, they leveraged it off. But comcast has made acquisitions is the sky issue more front and center now i was thinking the same thing. If you look at any of these companies. A lot are taking steps to be conservative they are making sure they can manage through this it is either going to be great for the people who show up with no lines to wait in or it is like calling the herd. Not everyone can do that. Take a disney earning and kiss up to the powers that be you are very talented, he. Joe. Lets go to china billion is going to do bitcoin or something did you see that i saw it. It is part of the story line can you give me any details i quantity. Im watching like you are. Lets talk about what is going on in washington fine. Move me on in washington news, u. S. china tensions it in to rise this isnt it. This is eunice yesterday, you were telling me this is live from beijing. We were off the air for a while. I was recounting one of these twitter feeds saying that china is gloating about and then they turned us on so they could hear me saying that they had done a great job that is unbelievable how that works. Thats right. We were taken off while we were talking about more sensitive issues such as Tiananmen Square and when you started speaking highly about what is going on in china and how they are proud it has done a good job of getting on top of the situation quickly unlike, say, the United States where things have been handled as well as chinas perspective you definitely came back on air. What do you have for us today there whats a message in Foreign Ministry after the long labor day holiday. The message is that tariffs should not be used as a weapon last week, he suggested he could impose tariffs or other measures for the virus. At least right now, people believe or at least hope this is all rhetoric Morgan Stanley came up with things they are watching for coming up with a report of its role among the spread and how harsh that tone is Morgan Stanley also said how quickly china will ramp up its purchases of products into the fall now china has been steadily buying u. S. Ag such as soybeans and monitoring if a second wave of infections to the point that it nullifies the value of the trade deal with china. Those are the things they are watching everybody i spoke to, foreign and chinese Business People all telling me the same thing. At this point, to append the trade deal would be devastating for them they are worried about customers not buying the supply chain. The trade deal is seen as keeping the u. S. China relationship together most people are hoping that this stays rhetoric i always thought china was like, well well do it but not that happy about it now they are showing that there is at least dialogue going on. I think it is all relative. Both sides have reasons why they dont like the trade deal. At the same time because china is worried about the economy and jobs market. Tariffs were slapped on the u. S. Companies and factories that would be dealing with it their suppliers. It is another level of uncertainty they dont want to have to deal with at this point. I hear from some people in the medical community in the United States, all of whom are still looking for the ppe. Much of what is needed in the oouts still comes from china when they hear this back and forth from the administration and the u. S. Side and the chinese side, there is anxiety and worry. Could it be not just that United States tries to impose tariffs and that they make it more difficult to get ppe at this critical time . Yeah, it has been a concern ive spoken to people who manufacture and have been agents to get ppe to the United States. There actually still is a group of people that believe that the government has been holding on to the most critical products such as ventilators and the n 95 mask there are people who believe that there is not evidence the government is doing that purpose fully to make things difficult for the United States. There is concern about chinas own situation. Some weve spoken to say supply is being controlled by authorities. If there is a second wave, a third wave but to pin it onto the chinese governments intention to stall shipment to the United States, it is still very, very uncertain. Okay. Eunice yoon in beijing, thank you for that report. Well see you very soon. When we come back here, veteran media analyst will join tous talk about disneys latest results and what is next f torhe industry we are back with her after a short break. These days staying connected is more important than ever. So were working 24 7 to maintain a reliable network, to meet your growing internet needs. Were helping customers who are experiencing Financial Difficulties stay connected. Were increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. And delivering selfinstall kits to your door. Nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. Were committed to keeping you connected. For more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity. Com prepare. Welcome back to squawk box. Tough quarter for disney the company saw a sharp drop in profits. A stunning reversal from six months ago the company said the outbreak cost them 1. 4 billion in operating. The company suspending its Dividend Payment for the first half of the year joining us, media analyst. I got to tell you, jessica, i was reading. What are they saving with the dividend suspension, 1. 6 billion yes my idea, i would raise the dividend today and save 2 billion. Would that work . Kidding. Thats not a good idea the overall numbers there, was it worse or better than what you thought . It was dully a little better. Second quarter a little better not that it is relevant. We are going into the Third Quarter, which will be peak losses we are projecting down 40 losses should be at peak, june should be the worst before the world starts to reopen you have a buy on it still way were talking about it still. I dont know if you were watching it is clear that iger worked years and years through it to gather these fantastic assets. Some people think he overpaid at different times. But the proof was in the pudding compared to how the company is performing do we assume that eventually those come back and become very valuable again or is the mix not right and it is going to be a new world and there is still some emphasis on theme parks it feels like we are at peak negative sentiment we feel all of its businesses have impacted froo theme parks, cruise ships, movie, tv production, advertising, sports, et cetera. Every one of their businesses is impacted in some way having said that, we are peak negative is sentiment. We are staurting to sigh the world try and reopen slowly. There is really Strong Demand for their product. The question is not when will the not if but when. There is demand. I thought one of the more shocking things was the demand for cruises. The last thingyou would think anyone would want to do. Reading your notes about what could go wrong it had nothing to do with pandemic cord cutting, problems at espn are still the worries and concerns about disneys future i guess that all assumes some day we open up society and we are not feeling too much of the effect of the pandemic now this is a chance for all companies to really take a look at their businesses strategically and from a operating standpoint and really examine what businesses look like for 130,000 furloughed employees, not clear how many do come back on a permanent basis initially, costs will be higher because they have to clean more and do testing there over the long term, has demand really changed for live events it will take time. Will you get a chance to buy disney at these levels again disney and your Parent Company Comcast Universal have unique assets i want to ask to you about comcast earlier. I had one quick question as it relates to the theme park speaking about the idea of opening in shanghai in may operating at about 30 cap i was curious what kind of study have they done to be profitable does that even break even . Do they lose money at those levels what do they have to get into . Disney was not very helpful on the call last night in terms of sizing the impact most of the cost, the majority of costs are variable. There will be the initial opening. Having said that, our guestimate will be in that 20 to 30 range for them and same for universal. Okay we are going to wrap and move on you remember not everybody is in on the joke. Last time you were on, you have for a while thought maybe comcast had such a strong Balance Sheet that they could use it more or leverage it more. Do you have a different view now that the pandemic has made cash very dear or debt more threatening to a companys future what i said, i thought i was off the camera i do remember that i thought cam cost was too conservative yet, in this environment, they have the exact right strategy. As we recover and the companies who have strong positions can think about their consumer and the strength they want because of the financial stability. Thank you that was a great moment. That can only happen in studio hopefully that can happen again. Sounds like shes really looking forward to it. You can come here and hang with me. When we come back, a billionaire divorcing involving secret trusts, private island and a 5 millionum my. Going into the fortune that quant lab built. Thats next. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. We can spend a bit now, knowing were prepared for the future. Surprise we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. Im good at my condo. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. Right now, there are over a million Walmart Associates doing their best to keep our nation going. Because despite everything thats changed, one thing hasnt and thats our devotion to you and our communities. Our priority will always be to keep you and our associates safe, while making sure you can still get the essentials you need. I came across sofi and it was the best decision of my life. I feel cared about as a member. Were getting a super competitive Interest Rate on our money. Were able to invest through the same exact platform. I really liked that they didnt have any hidden or extra fees. Sofi has brought me peace of mind. Truly thank you for helping me prepare for whatever the future has in store. Welcome back the worlds wealthy have stashed over 300 billion in trust in south dakota a divorce showing how the trust can also be used against ex spouses. Robert frank has that story for us robert big as billionaires they own their own private island and a 180foot sailing yacht with its own grand piano it was over the top now marie fears going broke ed filed for divorce in 2017. Rather than getting half of a fortune she estimates over 200 billion she may end up with nothing because he discovered an obscure tool that allows them to hide their money from tax authorities and spouses. What was it like when you realized what was happening . I cried i was in tears i could not believe some of the things i found out. When they married in 1989, he had little reported wealth they started a financial Trading Company called quantlab. They indulged in unusual tastes. She invested in Marilyn Monroe mem beil yeah, a 8 billion mumy and the piano from the paris opera house. During their marriage, he put everything they own into a complicated trusts south dakota allows them to transfer assets to new trusts that shut out marie without telling her. If hes going to take everything from me and stop my world. Thats fraud thats his duty as a husband in filings, they argue there is no Marital Property in the trust. Ed refused to answer questions from cnbc. What if it ends bad will i for you, what do you do . I dont know. I dont really have a plan this case was scheduled to go to trial in early april but like many, it has been put on hold because of the coronavirus back to you. All right, robert unbelievable we have dr. Gottlieb waiting we have to go. Coming up. The biggest coronavirus headlines. We are coming right back constructing funds that dont simply follow an index. But explore new terrain. Helping you fill portfolio gaps. Connect to client goals. And strengthen confidence in you. Flexshares. Powered by over a century of investment expertise. Before investing consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. A new early study by researchers shows that the coronavirus may be mu tating and the new dominant strain appears to be even more contagious than the original strain. Joining us now is dr. Scott gottlieb dr. Gottlieb, you and i went back and forth a little yesterday about this i was concerned reading this and you made me feel a little better an analysis that shows the dominant strain in europe and the United States was a strain with a sing the base pair chain. They suggest that since this became the dominant strain, it must be more contagious. We saw a change like this with ebola and thought it made ebola more contagious. We found when we put it into animal studies, in fact, the change didnt make it more infectious we dont have anymore data but cell culture data. It could be this strain with the single base pair strain that got into europe and europe succeeded into the United States this could be considered the dominant strain in super it doesnt prove anything that this new strain is in fact more infectious it does raise the question about mutations and whether a vaccine would be able to stop. It take the flu vaccine you never know what strain will be the common that goes around any flu season is there a concern about this . Not as much a concern as it is with flu. The spike proten weve seen is relatively stable. It undergoes changes there have been changes in this virus as it spread around the world. That said, you probably would want to change the vaccine every couple of years. Two or three years, because there will be drift. You wont see the kind of changes within a season that would change the vaccine of this virus. Thats the protein that attaches to the cell when we spoke to the lead researcher at pfizer, thats the one they are using or a couple of proteins. Scott, when i read that headline like so many i read on these sites, they made it sound like that the mute ated strain was even more. But this is what they are already dealing with they failed to point that out. Look, there is a lot of different strains. This virus has undergone genetic drift. It is going to drift over time generally, the drift should be in the direction of making it less dangerous, not more if it is selected for because it wants to keep its host alive it doesnt mean it is changing in ways to make it worse or better but it is changing. There are two different strains that are predont nant there is also a piece that says if you catch coronavirus it will cut 13 years off your life. All that was doing was averaging the age of people that got it, unfortunately pass away and what they would have been expected to live to. There is so much in the media right now that is just inflammatory and sensational you need to read between the lines, even stuff you are quoted on you are probably scared to say anything at this point, right . I see auto myself misquoted as well. The headline coming out of that study yesterday was very misleading the reports in the press were misleading they concluded far too much than what the study actually showed i wanted to understand when we were talking about the different strains how this works when it comes to vaccines and therapeutics you are going down one path to solve one piece of it. How complicated is it, if it few tates . Generally, you are trying to target parts of that that preserves. In a fashion that would thwart whatever the vaccine or the drug is trying to do. We have a lot of drugs targeting viruss that are relevant it i havely stable over time. They dont learn thousand to thwart them over time. With the antibody drugs, they are targeting the spike protein. You are seeing, yes, the spike protein does undergo changes but not enough to thwart the vaccine in a single eason. If we had a vaccine, we had probably want to reengineer every two or three years to be safe but probably not within the confines of a single season. It should be relatively stable we should be able to target this virus. This study that came out doesnt suggest otherwise. Andrew, do you have another question one other question. Something we were talking about about ppe and how much we need and how much we are getting or need to get from china just wanted to get your thoughts on that. Clearly tensions are rising between u. S. And china given the back and forth and what that all means. We are still dependent on all of that. Weve opened up the sources. What i hear is that hospitals are restocking hopefully if this does end up as a simmer in the summer and seen some growth in the fall, well restock. They are opening up alternative supply routes for ppe. New york is depleted but other hospitals have been able to stock up in other parts of the country that havent been hard hit. Dr. Gottlieb, thank you great to see you thanks a lot. Coming up, the ceo of u. S. Foods on the health of the nations supply chain th iats a big issue. Well be right back. We hope you find our Digital Solutions helpful to bank safely from home. Deposit a check with your phone or tablet. Check balances, pay bills, transfer money and more. Send money to people you know and trust with zelle. Stay safe. Stay home. Together, well get through this. Pnc bank the best Entertainment Experience. S xfinity x1. Take a look at u. S. Equity futures. Dow looks like it would open up about 204 points, s p about 23 and the nasdaq about 78 points higher among stocks to watch this morning, Virgin Galactic with a loss, touting potential future revenue as people put down a deposit to reserve a ticket once space venture resumes sails after the first glide flight on the space ship over its home in new mexico becky, are you going to be buying a ticket . Not a chance. Happy and healthy here what about you, andrew, would you do it . Tom cruise wants to do that movie. Tom cruise is either the bravest or the stupidest the stunts that he has done already. I was thinking about it. Can you imagine taking a camera crew to space. Cant you feign weightlessness there are special effects. Andrew, you are not going up to space. You would be the 500,000th passenger. I said a couple of years from now. Theyll get the thing up and running and ill go a couple of years from now what if theres a baby crying in first class thats a problem, as you know but those are highclass problems to have at this point when we come back, the ceo of u. S. Foods on the health and safety of the u. S. Supply chain. Before we go, dont forget to subscribe to squawk pod. Subscribe and listen tayod this is decision tech. Find a stock based on your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. Welcome back, everybody. We have a few stocks to watch this morning lets talk about shares of beyond meat. That stock is up by 3. 7 after Quarterly Results beat the street a little bit of a different story for pinterest shares the Company Posted a wider First Quarter loss the stock is down by 16. 5 costs surged because of the addition of new users and pinterest is dealing with slowing add spending at the same time lets take a look at shares of mattel. That company under pressure after it missed the mark on top and bottom lines and predicting a steep drop in Second Quarter sales and any ramp up in production is dependent on evidence of consumer demand. Stock is off by 7 mattel ceo will join cramer on mad money tonight. Nordstrom will permanently close 16 of its stores the company, of course, trying to cut costs, deal with the impact of the pandemic all of Nordstrom Stores have been closed since march 17th plans to reopen the rest in phases andrew okay meantime u. S. Foods reporting Quarterly Results last night earnings fell but some positive notes from the call. The company seeing improvement in case volumes, customers adjusting to Business Models to accommodate social distancing requirements this is take out and delivery option joining us right now to talk more is the chairman and ceo of u. S. Foods good morning to you and thank you for joining us what percentage of your customers right now are offline versus online and i dont mean online in terms of on the internet but in terms of being open good morning. Thanks for having me on. So we serve restaurants, hospitals, hotels, schools across the country to a network of 70 Distribution Centers and 20,000 associates, and i really want to give a lot of credit to our associates for continuing to playing a vital role in providing the food chain with respect to the restaurant segment that youre asking bwe got about 60 of restaurants according to our survey that are open for take out or delivery. And the remaining 30 or so, many are planning to reopen over the coming weeks, and weve got playbooks in place and things to help them with their reopening sites and what about you also have schools and hotels and other components so if you can look at sort of the complete picture of the business versus whats open right now in terms of percentage of customers in business currently versus closed for business at least temporarily. Yes to answer the question from a volume perspective it does vary as you know, hospitals are open, but, you know, our volume at hospitals is down slightly because elective procedures are down schools are closed in hospitality travel and most gatherings have come to a virtual standstill that business is down 70 to 80 . And so as you think about the business going forward, how do you think it changes obviously you talked about how restaurants will move more towards take out some of these restaurants will come online. Hospitals will obviously shift the whole business is going to shift. What does it took like to you a quarter from now, two quarters from now, three quarters from now. Youre exactly right. It depends on the time horizon over time, a year from now, i do believe that the industry recovers near to precovid levels consumers spent as much on food away from home as they do at home but with the next few quarters as you say i think the recovery will be gradual. It will be choppy. A lot of demand has shifted to retail weve tried to take advantage of that by farming some new retail partnerships and other distributors have done that as well in terms of restaurants, i think they will be the first to open before schools and before the hospitality industry. Youre starting to see that already. Were hearing from our customers they are looking to reopen. It also depends on Consumer Mindset and consumers are itching to get out theres a survey that we saw recently from the fed that 49 of consumers miss dining out more than any other activity including seeing friends which was a very close second. So we think things will gradually open up again. Okay petro becky has a question. A quick question. I miss dining out but i dont think its dining out i miss as much not having to cook dinner and clean up afterward right there is, i want to do this but i want to feel safe. How do you measure that and how do you anticipate or what changes would you make if people dont really go back as quickly when things reopen . Yes its a good question and, you know, again from a Consumer Survey and looking at other countries we see that consumers, younger consumers are less quickly we put in place web areas for our customers and experts who run restaurants, providing playbooks and advice in terms of restaurants. Some things we got in there is first create some expectations for the diner as to what you expect so that its seamless when they get there and they dont bump into each other when they get there second and we saw this from research of other countries, make cleaning and sanitation and safety of the restaurant make it highly visibilitible to the consumers so it helps them be put at ease. So thats what restaurants are experiencing to Customers Trust continues to go up we appreciate your time and we appreciate all youre doing and all of your workers on the front line bringing people food and keeping the supply chain moving thank you for that work. When we come back a lot more on uasqwk box. Shares of disney are under pressure theres a lot of reasons well talk about them when we return without leaving their h. Matt is sending money to his parents with zelle. rachel [whispers] have you seen my debit card . matt [whispers] no. vo rachel is turning off her misplaced debit card. matt [whispers] babe. vo and turning it back on again. rachel shes up. vo bank from the comfort of your home with wells fargo mobile app. Wells fargo. Three in a row just maybe futures are pointing to a higher open again this morning as the president pushes to reopen america. Toil a big part of the story as demand slowly makes a come back. Maybe weve seen the worse there. Well get you up to speed what you need to know for the trading day ahead. The race for better testing and treatment. A ceo joins us to talk about the companys unique partnership with microsoft and others in the battle against covid19. And quarrel results from General Motors due out in a few minutes. Well get you those numbers and talk to you about the state of the industry as the second hour of squawk box begins right now. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc im Andrew Ross Sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. We got some green arrows this morning. The market looks like it will open up higher, about 208 points nasdaq will open 81 points higher and s p 500 looking to open about 23 points higher, keeping the rally moving or a mini rally for now. Well see. Becky, over to you heres whats in our headlines. Were watching shares of dow component walt disney this morning. Disney reported profit that was well below what the street had been expecting for the latest quarter. The coronavirus outbreak shaved 1. 4 billion off the bottom line it announced it is eliminating its first half dividend thats a move that it said would save the company 1. 6 billion the stock this morning down by just under 2 . People are watching to see what happens. They are saying they are going to open the shanghai Disneyland Park next week on may 11th earnings just out from cvs health the company saying a profit of 1. 91. Cvs kept its prior 2020 earnings outlook in place and that stock right now is up by 4. 5 . We after little over an hour away from the april adp report economists think the report will show the u. S. Lost 20 million privatesector jobs. Joe, markets will be watching these numbers very closely those numbers, everybody is watching oil as well crude prices jumping this week, 30 . Demand for it was line slightly on the rise. That could have an implication for the stock market as we have seen joining us now, founder and principal of rr advisors mike santoli joins us as well. Rob, a lot of movies we havent seen before and no one has seen this movie with the pandemic but in terms of what happens with oil maybe weve seen similar things when prices get solo it stops production and then selfcorrects and a lot of that zero and when we were actually paying, people were paying for delivery or paying not take delivery that was a technical factor, right . For whatever reason the market has corrected itself yeah. So i think thats a pretty fair characterization you know, in one sense the free market works so the risk of going through sort of this, it created an outcome where a lot of supply got shut in relatively quickly, a lot of that happened in late april and very early may here. So i think what weve done, joe, you referenced a modest rebound in demand coupled with a lot of shutting production as effectively rebalancing the market, there by avoiding the outcome of going through tank tops in fuel storage low prices begets low prices you said slight rebound in demand and what we got on the price move, if you say, you know, supply is part of it, but a lot of this were hanging our hopes on this somehow forecasting demand rising. Is that psychological at this point . Were assuming it will happen . Have we seen demand pick up at all to get a move from 10 all the way back to 25 where we are today . Yeah. So, i mean we have seen and it depends the data varies pretty dramatically across different markets but in some markets, you know, sort of call it here in texas but up the through the midwest and places like the southeast and markets like jacksonville, florida, atlanta, et cetera, youve seen a recovery and demand especially on the gasoline side, up 50 off the lows here from back in april. You know, some of the harder hit regions, new york, you know, the west coast, you havent seen as much of a recovery i think whats really happened here is the refining industry cut utilization rates. So demand has started to recover. Again quite modestly from a total lower 48 standpoint. Right but as that started to happen you see gasoline inventories which is putting a floor on prices were interested in oil but not the oil channel, were really more of a business and stock market channel so its really how it affects the equities market. You were part of our conversation on may 1st, selling may. Yeah. I dont know. It started that way. Now i dont know where we are again. I dont know what though i things look like we may be reopening parts of the country. The markets are much more stable just in general as the vix comes down we had mike wilson on yesterday saying his best case year end target is 3,000 for the s p. His bullish target 3250. Are we really back to where we were just last october before we even heard of this horrific virus . Were back there with index levels, not back there remotely with activity. One thing is focus just on incremental moves in a positive direction on a very low base by the way a month ago it was at 30 a month before it went to zero it was at 20 not like were in a zone where were way clear. Its way up. So the market is definitely keying on this idea of incremental progress towards something remotely like normal but the effect of the big dominant stocks in this market you cant under estimate them. I mentioned yesterday, you know, a fifth of the s p 500 down 40 off its high its the big stocks that seem to be kind of Holding Things together for now but in a bigger sense you have a lot of stimulus if theres this growing sense what the fed is doing and what treasury has done and what congress has done might provide a bridge to something more normal then, of course, you have this high liquidity return to growth type story. Its all on the compound its not something youre seeing in the numbers except incremental improvement. Back to oil, rob, we near the high end of the range for what this economy globally is good for at this point . Yeah. I think in the near term thats probably right i think were sort of stuck in a range of call it high 20s. We got a lot of crude in inventory. A lot of finished product. Gasoline as well well have to work through a lot of that over time here before prices can really go higher back to something thats close to what i would characterize as the marginal cost of supply which is substantially higher than where we are today but we have a lot of fallen wood to chop to get there. Where we are right now, does it take just the worse Case Scenario for all the leverage producers, does it take bankruptcy off the table or makes it a little less likely, doesnt it well, for some, but, you know, joe, i would say unfortunately not for many so while prices are up off of the lows,you know, i think the short answer is 25 oil doesnt work for anybody anybody is defined whether your name is saudi, russia, u. S. Shale guys these numbers just dont work. So theres going to continue to be a lot of question in the market and i would just caution some of what we see on the screen here, call it 25 is not whats being realized by certain producers. In the shale in north dakota, prices are still close to zero on a fully realized basis and that will keep pressure on some of that. Call it smaller. Producers dont have the scale to survive in this environment rob, thanks mike santoli, forgot to check where you were i didnt see the ship shack. You can make a guess. You need a third location keep us guessing youre on enough to do that. I might be on a different one later. Well see you all right. Thanks becky. You mean becky. Same difference. When we come back, shares of barrick gold trading at a five year high. Mining during a pandemic before we head to a break lets get a check, though, on the markets. The futures have been higher this morning right now looks like the dow futures are indicated up by 1 he 80 points. A lot of that youre seeing play out in wti prices which were above 25 a barrel nasdaq and s p both up squawk box will be right back. These days staying connected is more important than ever. So were working 24 7 to maintain a reliable network, to meet your growing internet needs. Were helping customers who are experiencing Financial Difficulties stay connected. Were increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. And delivering selfinstall kits to your door. Nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. Were committed to keeping you connected. For more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity. Com prepare. Welcome back to squawk box, everybody. Again, the futures this morning have been indicated higher weve been up the last two sessions in a row for the markets and this morning that trend is continue. The dow is up by 180 points. S p up by 20 and nasdaq up by 73 who is this going to i think its going to me. I think its going to me you never know in this day and age. Okay stocks to watch today. Lets bring you up to date on a couple of stocks that you got to keep you eyes on Cheesecake Factory posting better than expected earnings and revenue in its latest quarter. The company was forced to close its dining rooms and furloughed thousands of its workers due the pandemic, Comparable Restaurant sales tumbled 12. 9 during the period the chain is preparing opening some of the dining rooms as soon as next week those take out businesses and Everything Else youre seeing some of these restaurant chains getting dynamic how they can move forward and its exciting to see people try to make a go and make this work barrick gold out with earnings with adjusted profit of 16 Cents Per Share matching street forecast represent ad gain of almost 55 . Thats from a year earlier on a surge in gold prices joining us right now is barricks ceo. Good morning to you. Good morning, andrew. How are you . Im good, thank you for joining us before we just get into the numbers, just give us a little bit about what the experience has been like, what youve bern able to do, what youve not been able to do during this pandemic. Well, its unprecedented as we heard from everyone but i think the team has done an amazing job. As you know, we merged last year, first of january last year we set out for a different looking company, flattened the management, make it more accountable and that put us in good stead to be able to manage this crisis on the ground. And, of course, coming from africa, we quite used to pandemics and managing particularly viral pandemics, and so we were quick out the blocks, focused on our people and our community and also manage this crisis i think thats the big thing like any crisis, its how you manage it thats so important. So one of the things youve done is bought i was reading in the financial times, 800,000 Antibody Test kits have you gotten them already are you distributing those yet yes so weve rolled out the first lot in dominican republic. We have a partnership with the Mining Industry with argentina and, of course across africa were still struggling to get the accreditation from some of the authorities in north america. And whats it been like in term of employees coming to work, not coming to work what other types of testing are you doing, not doing what does it do to your quoteunquote supply chain so, you know, we grew up with the two bouts of ebola of 2013 and more recently in the drc and the key thing about any viral crisis is to screen, screen, identify, isolate, test. And so thats what we put in place across barricks organizations, 14 different mines around the world early on in february already. Its really that focus, most importantly to screen, temperature screening and also questionnaires, understanding where people are, how they feel. If theres any sign of symptoms, isolate and then trace contacts and isolate that we reached all our isolations particularly in nevada and starting to see the number of people in isolation we actually had a meeting last night. We went up to about 58 people and now we brought it back down 85 of those are back at work and its about really managing the situation on a minute by minute basis so, what do you make of the increase in the price of gold itself over these past couple months as a result of this pandemic and of all the money printing thats going on, not just here in the United States but around the world so, we saw that leading up to the 2008 crisis and then beyond that and then, you know, i think the world is quickly reverted to quantitative easing, manage a series of crises between the 2008 financial crisis and today and, of course, with the response to the covid19 as you point out weve taken that quantitative easing to a different level and, of course, that puts pressure on paper money and you measure that with the price of gold and youve seen the price of gold go up in all currencies across the globe in recent times. And so but is your expectation that thats a temporary phenomenon do you believe this will be a long term phenomenon weve had people come on and say over the next decade given the amount of printing thats going to happen, the value of paper dollar by default will go down and people will look for safehavens like gold. Yes i think weve seen that very big change in the gold price in dollar terms and other currency s currencies post the turn of the century. How does the economy come back and thats the challenge how we get back to a better situation and how do you get back the money supply thats been pumped into the economy now. That all drives the gold price on top of that, theres a technical aberration as well because new gold supplies predicted to continue to decline. So gold supply, Technical Support for gold prices also adding to the sort of unpinning of the gold price going forward. Mark, thats an old story, obviously, the printing, and im just wondering what happened eight, nine years when we were close to 2,000. Almost got to 2,000. Then in the face of unprecedented qe infinity that we went through and staying, the fed staying at very low levels and central bankers around the world going native we had that environment for seven, eight, nine yearser and gold was all the way up to where everyone was forecasting it would go through 2,000. All the usual suspects are talking about a 5,000 and 10,000 gold with all that printing and all that Central Bank Action we never got back to 2,000. You seesaw the big bottom. Why didnt it happen then . So, joe, if you look at that graph you got there on the slide, youve seen a shift in the gold, the base of the gold price and certainly we saw, you know, the added demand from china drove that initial gold price post2005 as we came out of the hedging crisis. Then, of course, the Mining Industry itself added a whole lot of supply on the back of that rising gold price and, in fact, in the process destroyed a lot of value and a lot of people that owned gold stocks at that time didnt get the benefit of it this is different because during that trough that you talk about, weve learned a little bit of discipline in our gold industry and we focused more on ensuring that you have that insurance and that you got the tension to be able to deliver that insurance policy given the unprecedented times that weve experienced in the last couple of weeks that looks like i mean charts are one thing but thats a long base to make and it looks like a new level, like you said, where this is probably the low who knows . But for the future it looks like from, there from where it is, you know, it can go anywhere, through 2,000, through 3,000 at this point from just looking at the long term base that it made that saucer bottom that must be pretty bullish andrew for barrick we allocate capital at 1,200. Its a very good position to be in right now looks like hit a longtime to consolidate and build a base and head higher. Thats what i was going to ask you, mark. Given the price has moved higher your base cost, i believe, you said was 1,200. Do you anticipate more people jumping in what does this do . This is similar to the oil story to some degree yes but the difference is we dont have reserves in our industry and weve been constantly exploiting lower and lower quality Gold Resources as the gold prices have gone up and were not prepared as an industry for this extra demand barrick is a different business, as you know. You hosted some of our deals last year when we looked to really consolidate and build quality base to our business, and so we have a ten year plan at 1,200 gold and, you know, this situation is what we are all about, giving our investors an opportunity to have a selffunded insurance policy against a Global Financial crisis by the way, people were talking about this before covid19 arrived on the scene everyone was worried about whether we were closer to the top than sort of further back down everyone looked. As you know, big bull markets, everyone no one of looks at the bottom or the term and what we got from covid is a push over the edge all right well, mark, thank you for joining us this morning. Its all quite fascinating and we do look forward to seeing you again very soon. Hopefully in person. Thank you joe, over to you. Coming up Quarterly Results from General Motors. The numbers and the pandemics impact on the industry plus Mohamed Elerian talks markets and todays stories to watch. Squawk box coming right back announcer time now for todays aflac trivia question. What year did activision merge with vivendis Blizzard Entertainment. The answer when y nbcs box continues. I had good health insurance. Why isnt this covered . Well, then they started getting bigger. Eighthundred dollars. Eighteen hundred dollars. I saved for this. But not that much. Im glad i had aflac. They gave me money when i needed it most. Thats why aflac is here, to help with the Expenses Health insurance doesnt cover. I love that aflac duck. Aflac get to know us at aflac. Com but when allergies and congestion strike, take allegrad. A nondrowsy antihistamine plus a powerful decongestant. So you can always say yes to putting your true colors on display. Say yes to allegrad. 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The answer, 2008 in july of 2013 Activision Blizzard announced the purchase of 429 million shares from vivendi making it a completely independent company. Still to come on squawk box, Quarterly Results from General Motors, the focus will be on the automakers liquidity. The state of demand. Production and some of its big investments. Numbers and instant analysis is next plus understanding how covid19 impacts the immune system. Adapted by a tech teamed up with microsoft and amgen to make better tests and therapeutics. The ceo will join us stay tuned boston light, americas oldest lighthouse, has stood strong through every dark hour and bright dawn our country has endured. It has seen the break in the clouds before anyone else. For the past 168 years, weve also stood by you, helping you weather storms like this one, to protect your loved ones. And well do it for 168 more. Goorpg everybody welcome back to box. Futures are looking brighter two days of gains alreadier and building on those gains this morning with the dow futures indicated up by 180 points General Motors Quarterly Results are hitting the tape right now lets get straight over to phil lebeau reporter this is a beat on the top and bottom line. With all Companies Reporting these q1 numbers because of the impact of covid19 i think a lot of people will look at this, okay, how much do we look at this and extrapolate into the second and Third Quarter 62 cents a share is how much General Motors earned in the First Quarter. The estimate was for 30 cents a share so more than double what analysts were expecting. Revenue coming in stronger than expected street was expected just over 31 billion. The stock moving higher premarket what people will be focused on one liquidity. Two is there a capital rate. We havent steen full release. Well be looking at that coming up next hour well have a first on cnbc with the cfo of General Motors, and one of the main topics is going to be this fortress Balance Sheet 0 go back to when they came out of bankruptcy the government backed bankruptcy in 2009 and 2010 so if in the future if there was a sudden dropoff in sales, deep recession this could ride it out. They get high marks from wall street for having the liquidity on hand but as they are burning through cash and not able to bring in the revenue because a, production has been shut down so they are not selling vehicles to dealers at the same right and a lot of dealerships are not buying vehicles because the retail sales are down as a result they are burning through cash so the focus will be where is the liquidity coming out of q1 into q2 and q3 and remember they announced they are taking a number of cost savings initiatives, if you will in terms of Cash Compensation deferral for executives and making sure that they have the money on hand to ride out. What will be terrible Second Quarter we know given the fact we saw april sales 8. 6 million as a pace of sales in the United States, and consider that less than half of what the Industry Sales pace was in all of last year well look further into this report and, remember, you dont want to miss that interview coming up one hour from now well be talking about the results as well as the Balance Sheet. Guys, back to you. Phil, well talk a lot more about that one of the questions i had for you real quick, and we mentioned with mark fields i believe just yesterday is this idea of not simply what happens to the Balance Sheet at General Motors but im thinking a little bit about the dealerships which are Small Businesses that often dont have nearly the kind of Balance Sheet that a gm would have and what kind of programs either gm or others will have to put in place or what kind of other stimulus measures the government may have to put in place to try to keep them going during these challenging times a lot of thoof those dealerss have laid off a good chunk of their help Many Service Departments are open and that helps because obviously as a dealer you make more in the servicing of the vehicle than you do in the sale of a new vehicle but having said that i talked to a number of dealers who said look we cutback to a bare minimum staff if at all possible with the exception of technician servicing vehicles in the back youre right this is a focus for the Auto Industry especially as you see a number of states, not all states, but a number of states where the shelterinplace orders or the reopening of the economy is going much slower than people originally anticipated so now youre getting into the may and june and then potentially summer sales season how much volume your going to see there . Thats going to be a real focus for not just General Motors but all automakers okay. Were looking forward to that interview at 8 30 and we appreciate you bringing these numbers to us right now. Well see you in a little bit. I want to talk more about earnings this morning and what this soeceason of earnings can mean were joined by alliance chief economic adviser Mohamed Elerian great to see you want to talk through these earnings including the gm number that just crossed. We also heard from disney last night. What are we to make of they numbers . So i think you make three things one, as phil said, this is not a throw away quarter theres a lot of information about both companies and the economy. The focus is on Balance Sheet. Most of phils interpretation was all about Balance Sheet, liquidity, cash burn, capital raise, so thats the critical focus. Second, you are seeing massive winners and losers, not just physical versus virtual, but within physical and within virtual. And then thirdly, youre not having much visibility these three things, andrew, not just form the bottom up positioning but tell us whats ahead for the economy. Well, tell us then whats ahead for the economy because, you know, depending on your outlook and, again, theres a big bet you have to make on testing and how quickly people come back and what demand looks like you look at a disney at these kind of prices and you say if you believe a year from now everybody is back at disneyworld, these look like great prices if you dont believe that, its a much more complicated picture. So, the top down bet, and the market is being still driven in terms of overall levels by top down but were seeing massive differentiation. Its the high quality names ive been talking about that have outperformed significantly both on the way up and down the top down theme has evolved it used to be about policy support. Now it is positive bet on reopenings. We have 40 states reopening and the market has embraced the notion that these reopenings will be healthy in the sense that they will be sustainable. We got to learn a lot about the Health Aspects but also about the Consumer Behavior and business behavior. In terms of what it tells bus the economy, i think three things are coming out very strongly do winners in general are low employment intensity so jobs may not come back as quickly as we all want them to come back. Secondly, productivity is going be very different. Among the losers, you know whats the word you they are most is no longer resizing, its wide sizing business rewiring different supply lines. So were going hear a lot about that then debt and Balance Sheets are important. So, these are really important its informative earning season the other question i ask is youve been very cautious throughout this pandemic about the markets and which way things are going to go in part because we all dont know what the Health Implications will be and how quickly well get back and whether theres reinfection in the future and whatnot clearly the market is looking through a lot of those issues already and joe has talked to you about this i talked to you a little bit about this as well what are you looking for as the next, i dont want to say shoe to drop but next signal is what i would say both on the good side and the bad side. As were reopening. That would give you the all clear. By the time you get the all clear, will you have missed the all clear, meanwhile, obviously, theres the negative as well so, for the last few weeks whether its with you, becky or joe ive been stressing up in quality. Up in quality in stocks means strong Balance Sheet, positive cash flow generation, Good Management team and on the sunny side of what comes after the crisis those are the names that have outperformed those are the names that have driven the index as mike santoli said earlier it really has been a few names driving the index. The question now comes do you save these names and go into the others some of which are 40 as mike said below their all time highs and that depends, honestly, on your call on the economy. There are two clear sort of views out there. There is the market view this will be a very smooth recovery and if its not it shouldnt matter because we got to get the backstop of policies then the health view out there this will be a stop go process well reopen, were going to learn a lot. We may actually have to shutdown selectively but the good news is that were going to learn to live with the virus. We just dont know how long thats going to take and hopefully it doesnt need to take that long because were going to get Community Immunity through a vaccine. So we have these two distinct views. You as an investor if you go into the names that have continued to underperform which is where the massive upside is, if we get a Global Recovery of betting that the Health Experts and the economists are too cautious thats the bet you need make if you want to go all out, lower in quality okay. Mohamed elerian, its always a pleasure to spend time with. Thank you for joining us i hope well see you very, very soon joe . Ceo of adaptive biotech will join us to discuss the battle against the coronavirus. Great when you see a Biotech Company team up with microsoft first as we head to break, check out the shares of beyond meat. Trading higher now Quarterly Results popped estimates in the latest quarter. Many end ys need to ramp things up the company benefiting from higher demand for its plant based products at Grocery Stores amid the lockdown. Jie companys ceo will join m cramer on mad money tonight. Were coming right back. Right now, theres over a million Walmart Associates doing their best to keep our nation going, while keeping us safe. Weve given masks to all our people and were helping our customers practice social distancing in stores. Weve implemented shorter hours, so we can sanitize our stores from top to bottom while also restocking our products. But if anything, these days have reminded us why we do what we do. Because despite everything thats changed, one thing hasnt, and thats our devotion to you and our communities. Were working together, instore and online, through pickup and delivery, to make sure you can still get the essentials you need. And as we move forward, know that our First Priority will always be to keep you and our associates safe. But when allergies and congestion strike, take allegrad. A nondrowsy antihistamine plus a powerful decongestant. So you can always say yes to putting your true colors on display. Say yes to allegrad. Game is on the rise. Electronic arts and Activision Blizzard reporting results ea saw an increase in digital and physical games it got a lift from esports with fifa i think its fifa i dont know. European stuff. European soccer fifa. Okay. Large crowd. Ea shares are down im messing with you. Ea shares are down this morning. Full year guidance like estimates but activision shares are trading up momentum picked up in april and raising its view for the i do love soccer, i got to admit. Because of the way those guys finally because the way they fall down score the way they fall down. Hell never play again career ending injury then two minutes later hes back running around thats my favorite thing thats a skill in and of itself, becky. Its skill. It is. When we come back, the adaptive biotech ceo on the companys efforts to try to understand covid19 in order to improve tests and treatments as joe mentioned they are working with microsoft and this does hold some pretty huge promise hes in seattle and hell tell us what they are doing then Jaime Bullard will join us well talk about feds unprecedented actions and get his reaction to the adp jobs report thats coming out shortly. Squawk box will be right back. These days staying connected is more important than ever. So were working 24 7 to maintain a reliable network, to meet your growing internet needs. Were helping customers who are experiencing Financial Difficulties stay connected. Were increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. And delivering selfinstall kits to your door. Nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. Were committed to keeping you connected. For more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity. Com prepare. The race is on for improved testing, treatment and a vaccine for covid19 and one company is partnering with microsoft to try to decide how the human immune system responds to the virus to make testing more reliable. Joining us now is chad robins. We were going back and forth last week but this is a new announcement today lets talk about exactly what youre doing and how youre using data to make sure you can make testing more reliable how does it work first of all thank you for having me back on the show greet to see you again we Just Announced an immune race to study the impacts of the covid19 on the human adaptive system our bodies hold Important Information and clues that adaptive can harness in our partnership with microsoft to able to take this information and create potentially better diagno die ag n die aagonostics. Up get some material from the virus. How does it break down what information are you looking at and how does it help you we can bring the paradigm into three different phases. Up front theres a type of test called pc r testing that looks at the presence of the virus itself if you talk about that throat swab or nasal swab thats done thats looking at the presence of the virus what were trying to answer questions that are gaps in these paradigms and. The diagnostics right now. The issue upfront these tests these pc r tests arent picking up all of the people that have the virus and these are called falls i was t false negatives. We dont know which patients will have lighter symptoms, cold and flu symptoms and able to recover earlier from the virus versus which patients will recover hospitalization. One of the questions were trying to answer is how we can stratify patients, which patients need hospital staz versus lighter symptoms. On the back end theres testing called serology testing. Theres issue with both false i was the and false positives, telling a person or patient that they had the virus and giving them this immune clearance to go back to work when they havent had the virus. So we along with can our Partner Microsoft which is just an extension of our existing partnership, are trying to answer these questions so we can fill in the gaps, you know, with existing diagnostic paradigms. I want to mention were generating this massive amount of data on the immune response not only to develop our own test but were opening up this data to the public so that Public Health officials, other Biotech Company and academic researchers can use the data to come with solutions, their own solutions for covid19 thats hugely important and very laudable and, chad, thank you for making sure youre doing that right now thats incredible responsible the thing to do to make sure were fighting this. Let me saw couple of questions first of all, in terms of the testing that youre seeing so far, we talked to a lot of different people how reliable these tests are. Where would you say the reliability is and how much could you improve with it these tests youre undertake right now . I think theres two issues on reliability of testing one is on standardization and then the second is on really the biology and what these tests are actually picking up. First, i think the fda has done, you know, a good job in recent weeks of trying to standardize some of these type of tests. But i do think its still, you know, a big issue because theres many different tests manufacturers and all the tests are different and its a real problem not just for standardized testing but to then track and trace the spread of the virus. Then there are certain biological issues and i mentioned them before about these tests, you know, obviously they have, you know, a strong utility in certain areas but i think there are significant gaps that many, many people, specifically who are carriers of the disease and asymptomatic or just in general that upfront the pc r tests are not picking up all the patients that have it and thats a real issue. And then, you know, again on the back end, the serology tests, i do think theres significant issues with giving kind of an immune clearance based on a scan so what were hoping to do in answering these questions, and might be one or might be all of these questions that we can answer with one test because we might be the only ones who are looking at this type of cell called a tcell that we think is at the very least its complimentary and can add to part of the solution and at the very at the most could potentially be better on diagnosis upfront and a real, a better stratifying and giving a true clearance in terms of an immune scan. Chad, do you have any hypothesis about why some people we know this disease affects people who are older, or underlying conditions, obesity, breathing issues, affects them more there are other cases where it seems to hit one person very hard and not someone else and i read a lot about potential theories behind that i just wonder if you have one going into your research on this becky, thats a great question and actually thats one of the questions were trying to answer were trying answer from the reverse. Were letting the immune system tell us, you know, based on what the immune system is seeing. We can potentially answer those questions by looking at different signatures of how our bodies are responding to the disease to understand that specific questions, you know, also specific questions of different geographies, different time points during the disease and the disease course and how that impacts different segments. If you look at age these are all questions that by truly understanding the immune response to the disease, we hopefully should be able to answer these questions chad, good luck and godspeed. We wish you the best of luck and we appreciate youre taking all this information and making it public so that everyone can use the research to try to get ahead. Great seeing you today thanks for having me on byebye. Okay. Take care, chad. Andrew great. Thanks, becky. Coming up when we return, st. Louis fed president James Bullard will talk to us about the feds Interest Rate policy and the impact the pandemic on the economy. Its an interview you cant rford to miss wee back with him right after the break. Sometimes the challenges of todays world make it tough to take care of yourself, thats why you can rely on natures bounty. To give you the support you need. To stay motivated keep active and sleep well. Add a little more health to your day. With natures bounty. Good morning. Were to get the best look on the toll the coronavirus took on u. S. Workers the adp jobs report for april is minutes away with estimates pointing to 22 million jobs lost last month one business still missing most of its factory workers, General Motors gm says it took a big hit from the virus this past quarter. Companys chief Financial Officer will join us when will disneys magic return. Disneys latest results shows a clear picture of how costly the pandemic has been. The final hour of squawk box begins right now good morning im joe kernen along with becky quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin u. S. Equity futures moderated their gains. In fact given yesterdays gains and then you add that on and we still arent back to where we were yesterday morning in terms of the premarket. We gave back a lot of gains. 300 plus point gain in the dow in the last hour yesterday they were getting back most of that this morning. They are petering out. It keys off of crude which looks like its not at its best levels hit been above 25. Thats now down threatening to go under 24. So maybe thats it, becky. Yeah that too well have the adp jobs report that comes out in about 14 minutes. Wait for that. Thats the beginning of the numbers that we get over the next three days giving us a little bit of an input into the jobs pictures people in battleground u. S. States are feeling more confident about their own personal finances but they are not as optimistic about the economy overall. Eamon javers has more from c ever nbcs states of play survey reporter thats right. This survey was in the field may 1st through 3rd. Cnbc chain states of play research six battleground states that will make the biggest difference heres what were finding how people feel about their wealth and personal wealth. This graphic shows some dramatic change justin past month this is my familys wealth versus personal wealth the blue line is familys wealth and. Safety twothirds people saying health and safety now thats down to 66 35 say personal finances are more important and thats up from 18 you can see those two blue and red lines converging there and at some point if this trend holds those lines will cross each other and more people will be concerned about their personal finances than about their personal health. Thats a dramatic thing to see in the midst of a Global Pandemic and it indicates southeast economic stress thats out there right now as people are concerned. But look at what it plays out in the terms of peoples personal lives. This graphic sim secure but the economy isnt. This is a percent of people who are saying they are confident or optimistic about various things in the economy their own job security, own personal finances and u. S. Economy overall. Thats that grayline at the bottom you can see the u. S. Economy people remember less confident 38 confident in the overall u. S. Economy look whats happened to their own job security and their own personal finances. The blue and red lines, 65 and 57 respectively at the top there. People have a real split here. You can see that emerging on the graph between confidence in their own economic situation, and a lack of confidence, dramatic lack of confidence in the overall u. S. Economy not sure exactly what explains that, guys, but when you look at these Battle Ground states, if that number on personal, your personal economic position were to change that could be a bad sign for President Trump i look at this and i think this might be a good sign for President Trump as long as it holds in the sense that people are confident about their own economic situation, even as they are very concerned about the overall economy. The old saying is its a recession when your brokerage is out of work, its a depression when youre out of work. Becky . Right its the economy, stupid, but its mostly the economy and what your own view is based on your own job outlook and your own feeling too. Thank you very much. Federal reserve is gets ready to kick off its main Street Lending program. Its the first time the u. S. Central bank is long known small and medium size businesses since the 1930s. Of course thats just one of roughly a dofz urgency actions the fed has taken over the last two months joining us now is st. Louis fed president jim bullard. Also our very own senior economics reporter Steve Liesman is here. President bullard thank you for joining us good to see you. Happy to be here. Lets talk a little bit about the feds actions. They are extreme more than we saw back in 2008 and 2009 during the financial, the great economic recession Great Recession that we were watching but i saw an interview with alan blinder in the wall street journal and he said its more but need to be more because this is worse than what we were dealing with back in 2008 and 2009 do you agree its different than 20082009. That was a financial crisis that originated on wall street and reverberated around the world. This is a known Shocking Health shock pandemic i think everyone knows the drill here we need to stayathome. We need to stay away from our businesses for a while in order to invest in the National Health so in some ways this is easier to map than the 20072009 financial crisis our main goals here, and i think we are succeeding so far anyway, stay out of financial crisis and stay out of depression while you are trying to deal with this pandemic and so far i think the response has been good and i think the understanding at a general level is very good what were trying to do were asking people to stayathome, get pandemic under control, and gradually reopen as we, you know, in a healthy way so we can keep the disease under control. We saw what eamon javers was just reporting the result of the survey hes been watching in some of these swing states where people are starting to feel less concerned about their own health and safety, their familys health and safety and more concerned about the economic pain they may be feeling at this point. Is that what youre hearing from constituents in your district . I would say they are very concerned about the economic situation. A lot of these entities dont have any revenue at all during the shutdown its pretty hard to survive and thrive when your revenue stream is cut off you know, many people will tell me, ceos, but also people from nonprofit entities, you know, i can go 90 days maybe 120 days if i know that on the other side ill be able to start up again so to really want to get is the idea that okay were going to provide relief for the pandemic. And then were going to have Risk Management to handle the disease once the initial shock is over. We have Risk Management on many types of mortality risks around the economy. Well have to do that here as well you know, terrorism risk Automobile Accident risk we have ways of mitigating those risks. Well have to do the same thing here but the shutdown cant go on forever because if it does, you know, deep into the second half, i mean then i think you risk getting into a financial crisis or even a depression scenario and if you got into that i think even Health Outcomes would be way worse if you got into that kind of thing. Hopefully were staying away from that. Weve been successful with our federal programs so far and i think the Fiscal Program has been appropriately sized so far and were getting relief to people in the right way. Steve reporter jim, yeah i want to ask about that outlook that you have there. Our cnbc update shows average forecast for 34 der cline in gdp in the Second Quarter but im more interested in the Third Quarter which sees 15 bounce back and then a 13 bounce back. We dont get it all back for the year its still down but i want to know, is that your best case if theres a reasonably strong bounce back in the third and Fourth Quarters . Yeah. Of course nobody knows at this point exactly what will happen, but i long maintained that the main impact here will be in the Second Quarter, the negative impact were going to see crazy adp numbers today and job reports will be the worse ever on friday but thats kind of expected because youre using the Unemployment Insurance program to provide pandemic relief thats what we want to do. We asked people to stayathome to invest in National Health and now we want to try to keep them whole through this period here and then i think in the Third Quarter it will be a transition quarter but i would expect a relatively rapid growth and then hopefully by the time we get to the Fourth Quarter we would be finishing up this process. So i still think theres a good chance that thats basic scenario will play out certainly if you look at china, it had very bad First Quarter and then, you know, growth rates are very high in the Second Quarter. And they have to adapt and when they are opening up to a new situation, but i think that can all be managed jim, do you have enough fire power in place right now to see it through or are you already thinking about whether or not the Federal Reserve needs do more than its already put in place . I would think these 13 programs are exceptionally powerful thats not something the fomc does, thats board of governors and treasury secretary has to sign off for this shock its been very clear we want to use those programs and use them effectively. I think weve moved into areas that probably make the most sense here, at least initially, but we could do more if necessary in that area i think the goals there are to provide market functioning, price discovery, make sure you dont gate freeze up in markets because that could make the situation much worse so, so far so good there i think our liquidity measures are looking good certainly better than they were three or four weeks ago. Jim, youve been so bullish in terms of this recovery, i curious what you think the unemployment picture looks like. What unemployment looks like in the third and Fourth Quarter and the reason im asking about it is because obviously the numbers are going be so large. But also because you do hear from Business Leaders today, sometimes publicly but definitely privately that they are realizing that they can trim some of their payrolls and still do the business that they always did. That this entire experience has forced the home be more efficient or at least made them aware that they could be and what that means longer term for the employment picture yeah. The Unemployment Rate will be extremely high, we think 20 , could be even higher than that you got this ppp program which has encouraged firms to keep their workers on their payrolls even though they are really not doing that much business and so in a way thats just a different avenue to provide the Unemployment Insurance so, you know, its not surprising, its a pandemic, its a shutdown situation. We needed to get the pandemic under control. Then of course you have to help these workers that have been asked to stay home jim, what percentage of those jobs, i dont want to say are lost forever but are lost for a long term than just this quarter or the next quarter as the restaurant is trying to come back online. Im talking about jobs that may not come back or may not come back immediately because Business Leaders are saying were going to do it more efficiently going forward. That would be improving you know, they would have to make their management decisions and if they were running something that was not a lean operation then this might be a catalyst to get them to move to something leaner im not so sure that successful businesses werent already doing that ahead of this but, you know, maybe there was some of that going on and those guys will be, come around the idea that they can improve productivity i think there will be other adjustments going on because the postcovid economy will, the vaccine wont be around for quite a while. In fact i dont think we should count on a vaccine, we should count on Risk Management as a way to handle the virus in the future and so the Work Environment will be different than it was. Im sorry to interrupt. What kind of Unemployment Rate are you looking at really quickly in the Fourth Quarter . I think it can come down one double digits by the end of the year i dont see any reason why you have to continue to use this program once you get past the initial shock. This is a case where unemployment goes way up and then comes down pretty sharply now, me thank you, jim stay with us and well get a data point here. Its time for the adp private payroll report Steve Liesman probably already has the number but not going to give it up to us for two and a half second. Steve . Reporter there we go 20,000,236 jobs were lost in april. Historic expected still sobering and very disheartening number coming out looking at the different sectors, good sectors down by 4. 2 million. Service sector down by 16 million. That 20. 2 million in line with 21. 5 million total job loss expected to be reported on friday thats the wall street consensus. This number today is pretty much in line with the number that had been expected by wall street i hate to say this plus or minus 2 million. Lets take a look at by size whats interesting to me is how aggressive Large Businesses appear to have been in laying off workers. 9 million workers from Large Business 5. 3 million for medium size business and 6 million for small. There was no program for the middle group theres a program for the larger group. Theres a program for the Small Business we dont know if that had much of an effect looking at it by category. Leisure hospitality 8. 6 million thats the hardest hit the sector you expect to be hardest hit. Construction also hardhit along with manufacturing and professional and business service. So, i guess ill toss it back to joe, i think here. With these numbers that basically set us up for what we thought. Joe all can you hope, i suppose, is what president bullard said is accurate. Its a sharp decline in job losses and then a quick back. Lets see what president bullard thinks about this. Well bring him back in, st. Louis fed president James Bullard for some reaction and i guess in the back up think of the answer to this question. Your full jay big time mmt now is everything fine well do whatever we need to do. Have you adopted that stance great i have to react to that outside job numbers and mmt at the same time think about it. Think about your answer for that i dont think there are any great surprises in what youre seeing youve been talking about just what we saw in vivid full color on what we saw so you can comment on that it was interesting that big employers, maybe big employers do have more fat that can cut without negative consequences than small firms yeah. This number is not a surprise. We had a blog post which your viewers can check out, back of the envelope calculation on Unemployment Rates we said Something Like 47 million workers are in high Contact Industries if youre going to shutdown the economy on that aspect, you got a lot of worker at risk so 20 million here so youre quite a ways towards that 47 million. You got others are staying on payrolls because of that ppp program, and you might have other firms that want to keep their workers for other reasons or because they got a loan or something. So theres no question this is very, very disruptive and we expect a very sharp increase in unemployment, very sharp job loss but we understand the shock. We under what were doing here i think everyone gets program. We have to invest in the National Health and get to the other side of this crisis. Steve, the futures are, you know they are not up over 100 any more they are only up 66 points i just cant imagine that its because of that number i mean, obviously, it coincide with that but if it was 18 million we would be up over 200. Doesnt seem like thats not i think its like a big splotch and if its that big or this big it doesnt matter that much if it was 24 million i wouldnt expect them to sell off. It was a bigger number could be more like 30 look at it makes you feel just ugly reporter if i could ask jim one more question. Jim two questions out there about fed policy one is you really havent announce ad formal Quantitative Easing Program i wonder if thats because of the idea that really standard or conventional Monetary Policy which is low Interest Rates and q french i can call it that arent having a lot of effect when the economy is shutdown and the question is are you holding that in your back pocket for stimulus for the rebound the second question is have you guys thought about yield curve control . Yeah. I would say those are related. I dont think that the current environment is really one where you have sensitivity to fed policy on Interest Rates that you would in normal functioning. This is all about the virus and shutdown policy and we do have the policy rate very low and rates are expected to remain low for quite a while and i think thats all very appropriate. But i dont think youre going to get back to that kind of sensitivity until the second half of the year and then at that point we can articulate more of a forward guideians fan that aspect. Jim, it might have been the guy from guggenheim that said the Balance Sheet now, its gone up to 9 trillion the fed will never be the same ever again never be able to if we thought it was the roach motel you couldnt get out of last time i dont know what you call it this time is this something were dealing with for the rest of our lives even if we live to be really old . Well if you look at the major central banks, ecb, boj, u. S. , fed, bank of england, their Balance Sheets have been creeping up in the last 10 to 15 years in reaction to the Global Financial crisis that hasnt turned out the problem ducing very much affiliati inflation. Well have larger Balance Sheets than we would have pre2007. I do think some of these programs will be reversed after the pandemic goes away so it will come down some. But its definitely a large Balance Sheet compared to the previous 2007. Good. Thats a yes to you are a full on mmter now you thought about it and gave me the affirmative. I think the fed controls inflation. There are limits to how much you can borrow but i think were reexamining all our theories of where we think those limits are you know what ive heard this like a thousand times in the last month. You got a great plan until you get punched in the face. I dont think mike tyson in the world knew every person in the world would use that line. Its so true until you get the daylights knocked out of you thats one of the aggravate quotes in the last 50 years. I dont know about the ink on the face and everything. I dont want to hold a tiger either im not the tiger king thank you president bullard. We appreciate it andrew okay. Thanks, joe. Tiger king coming up when we return gms cfo will join us on the conference call. She sees a stronger recovery in china. She will join us live in a few minutes. An interview you dont want to miss he well dig no an ugly quarter on disney more squawk ahead. Heres the thing about managing for your business. S when youve got public clouds, and private clouds, and hybrid clouds things can get a bit cloudy for you. But now, theres the Dell Technologies cloud, powered by vmware. A single hub for a consistent operating experience across all your clouds. That should clear things up. So were working 24 7 toected maintain a reliable network, to meet your growing internet needs. Were helping customers who are experiencing Financial Difficulties stay connected. Were increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. And delivering selfinstall kits to your door. Nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. Were committed to keeping you connected. For more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity. Com prepare. Welcome back to box. Futures right now up about 80 points theyve been up triple digits, up to 300 at one point and we had a weak close yesterday going into the 4 00. So well see but has been a bias to be in the green lately since that horrific day on friday. We had that big turn around on monday well see. Plenty of time left to do whatever over the next however many hours until 4 00 today. Becky. Thats right. Joe, thank you when we come back well ask texas senator ted cruz to weigh in on the historic job losses that we just saw in aprils adp report General Motors chief Financial Officer will join us to talk about the companys First Quarter results. Shares of gm are much higher this morning stay tuned right now up about 6. 3 . Squawk box will be right back. Still to come this morning on squawk box, ted cruz and the cfo of General Motors two big interviews you dont want to miss were right back with both of them right afterhi ts. News from the Treasury Department right now Rick Santelli joins us with the big headlines. Hey, rick. Reporter its like back to future, joe. 20 year, what was very popular back in the 80s are bringing it back bringing 20 billion of the 20 years back and if you look at the may refunding announcement, joe, its all about size, size, size its one of the biggest on record if you just look at how many tens, 30s, threes will be auctioning off from the first of the may refundings, 96 billion thats by far the biggest we had in that 20 year. Then you think about the Second Quarter in general Second Quarter refunding when you put it all together will probably be in the 330 billion camp versus 240 billion in q1. Roughly 35, 36, 37 more thats really the story here its about supply. Its about size. The yield curve steepening, tens have broken out a little bit to the upside in yield and all this is occurring not only because weve expected this additional size but of course we have to trade it, hedge it, that will put pressure on the long end when you consider march back securities have been issuing at a pace that we havent seen in years, Investment Grade is off the charts, we had 23 billion on monday, probably have 65 to 70 billion this week with the likes of am, starbucks, altria, commercial Mortgage Backed at this point in time yeartodate 22 more than a year ago add in the may refung. You talked about the Balance Sheet with ball lard it didnt go back from the last crisis in 200708 and 09 we hope when we get to the other side of the coronavirus effects on the economy hopefully somebody will look at these numbers whether its the fed Balance Sheet or deficits or all the supply because at some point we want to fix whats wrong today but have to worry about all the issues, all the supply that would bring tomorrow. Back to you. Rick, that Balance Sheet is definitely higher. Anyway thank you higher Andrew Andrew is laughing you know, its been hard to get you to laugh recently. Good to see you. Were all trying. Were all trying meantime want to get out to phil lebeau for his First Quarter General Motors beat the line they were heavily impacted by the coronavirus outbreak phil lebeau joins with us a very special guest that well focus on quite intently. Put on a blazer. Reporter occasionally i dress up lets bring in Dhivya Suryadevara, cfo of christmas christmas. Give me a, paint a picture, if you would of where business is now. Coronavirus was 1. 4 billion in the First Quarter for your guys. Where are things standing right now . Sure. Before i answer that i do want to share a concern on behalf of General Motors for all those who are affected by the crisis and ensuring the safety of our employees has been our focus and will be as we plan our restart to your question on the quarter and the business the big picture is that we are in a position of strength as we endure this crisis and our first kraert results clearly demonstrate that weve taken a number of actions and youre aware, phil, over the last several years just of the business world, lower the cost structure and address underperforming businesses, and position us well over the long term and really see the fruits of that. As you look at the First Quarter, even adjusted payment strong despite the impact of 1. 4 billion in the quarter from the pandemic thats a demonstration of the Product Portfolio where stocks are continuing to perform really well as well as the actions that i mentioned that have been taken as well. Clearly challenging situations but were focused on managing liquidity that we, that we have here as well as positioning us well for the longer term you ended the First Quarter with a little over 33 billion with cash on hand. Your cash burn rate in the First Quarter, whats happened since then where is your cash burn rate right now and how bad will it be for the Second Quarter the Second Quarter clearly will be the most challenging i do think about it here i think the way to think about our liquidity is that once were past the initial phase, our cash balance does normalize and targeting a restart date of may 18th with the remodeling weve done, even in an extreme scenario with zero production, we can go well into q4 and obviously with these steps weve and the from a restart standpoint will be much better than that right now you need have hefty incentives, zero percent for up to 84 months in order to move a number of vehicles you have Strong Demand for your pickup trucks. Do you need to keep those hefty incentives do you need to keep those in place to spur demand because so many people may not want to get out or have confidence to buy a new vehicle in the second or Third Quarter . I think we might have lost dhivya well see if we can get her back there. I would love to know either that or you totally stumped her on that one. That wasnt it obviously an audio issue joe, we talked about the fact that in terms of their pickup truck sales. I talked to dealers down in texas who say i cannot get a silve silverado to save my life. People want that 0 for 84 months for a silverado or a sierra and thats crucial to the bottom line of General Motors. 0 for 84 months, is that now the going rate if thats the case, thats a hefty incentive thats out there. I want to ask you in a longtime, phil, were trying to get her back whats the average age of a car . She is back. Tell me that has it come down at all . Used to be so much pent up demand still around 11 years right now a little over. Lets bring Dhivya Suryadevara back in. The question i was asking, you obviously have Strong Demand for your pickup trucks i talked to dealers in texas they need them and cant get them supply is running low. Youre moving that metal with 0 for 84 months. Does that have to stay in place froer mainer of this year given youre not sure what the demand will be as the country comes back out of a lockdown i would say if you look at our incentives over a period of time we have been extremely disciplined and a demonstration of is that our average production prices. And with the level of incentives that we have weve been able to achieve record transaction price. The incentives youre talking about very target towards the super prime sectors and parts of the market where we believe that it is the right strategy to deploy at this point in time as we look forward here, well be disciplined, and we will react to the realities of the marketplace and if we need to pull back well pull back or if we need to be competitive we will be. The Long Term Strategy hasnt changed. Dhivya suryadevara, cfo of General Motors joining us on the news line. Glad we could get you back to answer that question we had to cut the interview short because when he to fill some time there. Well send it back to you. Thank you well move on. U. S. Economy lost 20. 2 million privatesector jobs last month worst drop in the history of the adp report joining us to talk about the jobs picture and the process of reopening the u. S. Economy, texas senator ted cruz ted, good to have you on this morning. Its a bad, obviously, the jobs numbers, were prepared for but never really prepared for Something Like that. In your view and youre down in texas, and youve had your issues, obviously, but were in new york here. Its a different reopening, im sure down in your state. But how do you view that 20 million job losses that kind of says we need to reopen where we can, i think, safely i think thats absolutely right. I think were facing three simultaneous crises that are playing out all at once. We got number one, a Public Health crisis. The coronavirus pandemic and its effects have been horrific, 257,000 lives that have been lost worldwide and were taking extraordinary steps to flatten the curve and to slow the spread of the virus and to defeat it at the same time were dealing with an economic catastrophe nationwide we got in the last two months over 30 Million People have lost their jobs. The workforce nationally between 160 million and 165 million were looking at 20 of the National Workforce is out of work in just two months. On top of that you have millions and millions of Small Businesses that are on the verge of bankruptcy it is a level of economic devastation that none of us have seen in our life times and then third, a third crisis that were feeling particularly in my home state of texas is an energy crisis. That right in the midst of this pandemic saudi arabia and russia decided to wage economic hostility on the United States to flood the world with oil and that with sharp reduction in Global Demand precipitated a massive drop in Energy Prices and that too threatens millions of blue collar jobs in my home state of texas and across the country. And i can tell you, im spending every waking moment focusing on dealing with and defeating those three simultaneous crisis. Things in the oil patch had been looking a little better, well above 25 earlier in the session. Now thats down significantly wti and market no longer up triple digits. Andrew, do you have a question for the senator . I want to ask the senator, one of the other big issue is well have states and municipalities which will run into a lot of trouble. And Governor Cuomo from new york yesterday made a point of saying new york will need more federal money and made a particular point ever saying that new york was the biggest give in the country in terms of tax revenue rather than a taker, and given that weve had conversations, senator you and i over the years about the gives and takers and about what money should go when there are emergencies to different states what your view is of how funding should ultimately be made well, i think in the course of this crisis weve seen remarkable bipartisan consensus in dealing with the crisis congress in the last two months, we have spent roughly 3 trillion thats a massive amount of money, Staggering Amount of money. And that included hundreds of billions of dollars that have gone to states and local governments, states and local governments are the front lines dealing with this and that relief was important as we return to session and senate is back in session this week, im in washington, we all have been working from home for the past month but back here now, were in the midst of discussion about will there be another legislative package. And it seems that the top priority of Congressional Democrats is what you just raised, andrew, which is, which is sending nancy pelosi is talk about a trillion dollars or more that she wants to send to state and the local governments. Ill tell you the concern with that, which is that there are a number of states that have been highly irresponsible and have not lived within their means, and have dug unsupportable pension holes that have nothing to go this crisis that preexisted this crisis. If you take, for example the state of illinois. Illinois unfounded pension liability is 241 billion. That was the cause that was caused by inefficient just buying boats and buying boats by making commits to Public Employee unions they didnt have the revenue to sustain i got to tell you from the perspective of the rest of the country. Texas my home state we lived within our means we havent dug a multihundred billion hole and didnt spend money we havent had and i dont see why people in texas should pay higher taxes to bail out states that have been irresponsible. Thats major issue of disagreement in the senate if were focused on dealing with the coronavirus crisis,fine, but it shouldnt be an excuse to bail out states for irresponsiblity of fiscally reckless policies that long preceded the coronavirus pandemic senator, i agree with you 100 i dont think thats an issue that anybody would feel too comfortable with bailing out a pension plan that hasnt been funded in years and even decade in some cases. But what were talking about is very different than that if you talk to the governor of new jersey, governor of new york they will say they have a huge hole in their revenue because every business in their state has been shutdown at this point going on eight weeks thats a very different scenario when you talk about the revenue that they are able to bring in, and governor murphy we spoke with last week from new jersey said look this is an instance where i cant use that money to do things like pay my teachers or pay any of the Police Officers unless the work that they are doing on is very specifically related to coronavirus. And i think thats where the rub comes in obviously its clear if its coronavirus needs that you need for the hospital or something going on, obviously everybody is going to agree on that if its the Pension Funds never put in everybody agrees universally on that we should not be using this time to take advantage of this crisis to do Something Like that. But its the stuff in the middle that comes down and states that have been hit hardest where they are not getting any revenue coming in how do they pay for continuing surfaces and where do you come down on that listen thats a real challenge. In the last two months ive spoken to mayors and county judges and local leaders all across the state of texas. And thats a concern being felt at every level of government, that tax revenue for those jurisdictions just like the federal government, the tax revenue has plummeted. And i do think theres a reasonable case to be made for greater flexibility with the money that we have already sent to the states and the local governments, and i told the mayor of houston that i would take the lead pressing for greater flexibility and in particular the ability to spend that money on Law Enforcement, Law Enforcement needs are obviously among the most vital that state and the local jurisdictions have and the initial restrictions required such a tight nexus to coronavirus treatment that many state and local officials were concerned they couldnt spend them on meeting the obligations of Law Enforcement i urge my colleagues that we add flexibility and im glad to say as a result of urging that add flexibility be given yesterday, the department of treasury put out guidance making clear states and local governments that have considerably more flexibility to use those funds both for Law Enforcement and for Fire Departments as essential Public Safety endeavors i think that makes sense the next question is should there be substantially more funds that go to state and the local government i expect that be hotly debated within the senate and one of the challenges is, look, yes tax revenues are down. Sore federal tax revenues. Its not like theres a magic money tree in washington that is producing this money this is money were just borrowing, and at some point the solutions have got be recovery, getting people back to work. Its why my focus is on tax reform and regulatory reform, reducing the burdens on Small Businesses so as they open their doors they can succeed and prosper and thrive that
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