The big boet on bitcoin thats got everyone talking. But first, we begin with a trip back to the future for the markets and this was flagged by our own dan nathan a year ago today it was trading at 2900 and basically back to that exact level and lets fire up the flex capacitor to see what life looked like and wow, the world would change this time last year the s p 500 would trade 17 times pe and the tenyear note, and unemployment j was just over 3. 5 and Flash Forward to today, it is trading 20 times, and the yield. 6 and unemployment is projected to hit 16 and gdp is negative for the first time in over a decade. The world has been turned upside down and the market doesnt steam to care. So if youre an investor, should you make like a tree and get out of there i am told thats a funny line from the movie youve never seen the movie i saw it. The movie was released in the summer of 85. I think i turned 50 that year. It dawned on me as i listened to your intro the economy is george mcfly. The stock market is biff tannen, just making himself going to the top, but think about what happened at the end. So thats why i would caution folks this chasm between the two i dont think can last much longer with that said, you just have to be extraordinarily impressed by the resiliency i thought monday was an extraordinary day and today the late selloff not withstanding was still very impressive. Dan nathan. You flagged this chart for a reason so whats your thesis . Yeah. I mean, listen its pretty clear to me and ive been pretty consist own the this first things first. The market has not made up any ground over the last month or so and its been grinding between 28 and 2900 in the s p 500 obviously, the news has been really bad on the economic front, but ill just tell you this again, if youre looking at the stock market and the thing that has been most seriously propped up by the fed action over last couple of months and youre looking at the wrong lens as it relates to the Health Crisis and the economic crisis and all you had to do was listen to Warren Buffett over the weekend and hes selling everything hens and hes not putting that their 137 million to work that he has for a rainy day. What is he waiting for hes friends with the smartest guy on the planet, bill gates who is telling him theres very likely to be another wave of this virus i think you wait here and stay in to win. Someones phone is ringing. No, its not guy. Its not me. It sounded like an oldtimy ring karen . Im pretty confused by the action im not nearly as optimistic about the vshaped recovery. Guys been flagging that tensions with china on trade are really a risk and they seem to cool somewhat, and the market rallied, i think, on that, but you had treasurys very strong. Thats not consistent with a vshaped recovery and then you have gold gold up big. A lot of different xhingsing on, i dont want to sell what i own and vix is sort sort ever in limbo, im skeptical that we have this vshaped discussion, and the fed action is so extraordinary theyre throwing trillions, and with a t qwest qwest, its hard to know were throwing that around, it doesnt make me want to be short the market. I would never be short anyway im long. Thats something that didnt fit into the nice twocolumn chart when it comes to a year ago versus today and thats the fed and its extraordinary actions with a blanket guarantee of every debt out there, tim, on top of a lot of stimulus coming out of congress. Right the fed is the plutonium in the flex capacitor theyve taken us to an era where youve had just an extraordinary thrust in the market whether its to another place in time and whether its to the place where the market doesnt belong on fundamentals. You also have equity underweights everywhere. You have equity shorts in many places and so i think this is a lot with where to did with whered market is and the fed basically making it clear that they will do whether they are doing has been enough for the equity market. We all know the economy is not in great shape e specialspecialh the second and Third Quarter where markets will start to rally and i dont think we have to necessarily charge higher i think you should take it as a victory that the markets have held on to most of those gains that nobody thought they were going to, and i think the markets behaved pretty well despite closing near the lows the last two or three days dan ill just say this. I mean, i would say that the equal weight s p 500 doesnt act well its down 20 on the year versus the s p 500 thats down a little less than 11 on the year and we know why that is and its the crowding in the magna trade and 20 in the s p 500 just look at the banks and look at j. P. Morgan, how poorly it closed to be and how poorly it trades in general down 25 on the year and the bank stocks and the equal weight s p 500 are telling you that the economy have bottomed and you might see the unemployment number reach a top some time soon and whats different this time than the past financial crisis is that unemployment topped out two years after the stock market topped out if youre telling me that unemployment in this crisis, is that it topped out of the s p 500 bottomed out of this crisis. To me, if you really want to focus how the stock markets doing, look at the banks theyre telling you that this economy is doing in a deeper and longer recession than equal weight, and its telling you that the rally is not as broad as most people think it is. Our next guest says the opposite of dan and the market bottom is in. And well get to chris veronas. Chris, what are you seeing listen, i think i think there is supportive data that would suggest the typical ingredients of a major low have shown up in recent weeks and we kind of take this in bullet point form oneonone. If you look at march, march were two of the most capitulate months and the new low was as bad as anything weve seen in about a hundred years. And you fast forward to april and the quality of the rally in april was remarkable we had really, really long a rally in one month and one of the best moves in history and when you get moves of this magnitude over a short period of time the forward returns from this are into almost in the future tend to be exceptional the tricky part of the call is theyll return over the next one to three months and it brings us to the new point and were in the digestation phase where they have to consolidate some of those gains and i think thats likely through may and june, and just look at some levels you can see this market consolidate back to that, and lets call it 25. 50 to 26. 50 range and that will be a 12 drawdown from the highs and theres a lot of support there, and one thing we would see is if you saw the market come in here, and the apocalyptic that was so prevailing throughout march and april, and i would view that as an Opportunity One of the things weve been very impressed by over the last number of weeks in particular, if you go to the next slide is the riskseeking leadership that the markets actually exhibited i recognize things like banks have been softer, but high beta is outperforming by a very, very wide margin. Conversely, a lot of the groups are off the field. Look at utilities and continue to underperform and one of the groups over the last week or two. I see some offensive characteristics, even as the market starts to pause here and i think thats pretty important. And then lastly, i think underappreciated its only three weeks ago we were talking about negative frontmonth crude. Crude has stabled an important rally. Weve seen brent go from 15 to 33 weve seen the entire crude curve, wti back above 20 and i realize its a week away and some demand is being introduced into the economy so i know may and june, seasonality is not our friend here and we may need to consolidate, but when we look at the capitulation in march and the quality of the rally in april and i at least think its worth enter take the idea that we put a major low just to underscore this, chris, we think we see the bottom and we can still see as part of the long consolidation process which can take a few months to the fall and we could see within that, a 12 drawdown. Yeah. You know, i think whats interesting is in president ial election years you tend to see markets grind in may and june and tend to put a bottom some time in around july and thats a decent playbook here and theres expectation of being very precise in this business and i think thats a little bit of a mistake. I dont want to get too cute about the finer point and the Bigger Picture here is you dont get many opportunities with 35 , 36, 37 stock and i reject the idea that this has been a quick event. The russell 2000 peaked in june 2018 so there have been segments of the market that have been in a bear market for a long period of time and one of the Untold Stories so i think under the sur as it its broader tan what people think. Chris when you have the overall major drawdown in stocks. Chris is realistic that yoeb i dont expect markets that have to hold 2850 to 2900 and the consolidation is not one that rushes to the lows and not the one that he used the word apocalyptic and the sentiment and the position got oversold and there are other things that are happening, too i think the dollar will be your friend and the dollar is 3 off of the almost 18year highs and maybe that was a double top around 103 1 2 i think the fed is pinning the long end of the curve and i dont think rates will stay low, and i think credit is we dont totally know the credit picture and the banks have prepared the market and they are prepared for the credit and as best we can understand the dichotomy and i would tend to take chris view as most people know. We have breaking news on ford phil below has the story melissa, ford announcing officially what we heard from gm and Fiat Chrysler over the last couple of days ford will be resuming production at its plants starting on monday, may 18th remember, earlier today the governor of michigan basically gave the allclear for manufacturers to once again begin production starting next monday the 11th. On the 11th ford will begin waking up the system starting with its parts, deep owe that will reserve monday, may 18th. This will being a gradual production, and instead of three shifts it will be two shifts and in some plants where there are two shifts it will go to one shift and there will be safety calls for those workers and ford resuming production on monday may 18th melissa . Phil, thank you phil lebeau. Resuming production is important in terms of getting the cash flow going and ford did a Debt Offering successfully and did this make the picture for ford and the other makers that utsch in better . Its at least some clarity its a little clarity so that is good and we got a lot more claire frit gm, and i would much better be in gm however long it takes and we dont know how long its going to take and one of the flipsides of an uber which well get to is are people not going to do ridesharing or will they want to own their own cars . That would be a positive i would much rather be in gm than ford. Coming up, shares of uber make a uturn in the afterhours session and what the ceo said on the call thats got the stock reversing course and later, a bitcoin bombshell and our own bitcoin baller, b. K. , will join us with his take when fast money returns. These days staying connected is more important than ever. So were working 24 7 to maintain a reliable network, to meet your growing internet needs. Were helping customers who are experiencing Financial Difficulties stay connected. Were increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. And delivering selfinstall kits to your door. Nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. Were committed to keeping you connected. For more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity. Com prepare. Welcome back to fast money. Weve got an earnings alert on uber shares are soaring after reporting results and this after an 11 game in the regular session. Lets get to deidre bossa. Melissa, shares turned positive as the call kicked off. Heres what ceo dharra shahi said to turn them around i want to talk about what were seeing in Business Today and i wont sugar coat it. Covid19 has a dramatic impact on rides with it down 80 in april, still there are green chutes driving restraint optimism weve seen week on week growth for the past three weeks this week is tracking to be the fourth consecutive week of growth last week we saw a 9 trip growth and 12 bookings growth globally he also said that he believes the u. S. Is now off the bottom net losses were pretty breathtaking, 2. 9 million in the quarter and remember, uber has been burning through billions of dollars for years. The shock may have worn off. Its the promise of profitability that investors are focused on and he says it remains a strategic priority and covid19 will impact our time line by a matter of quarters and not years. We will hear more from him tomorrow morning on squawk box just to be clear, he said profitability by 2021, isnt that correct wasnt that the prior promise, as well . He actually moved that up to the end of this year he didnt say whether or not that remains intact and they have withdrawn their guidance for the year total so the best indication we have is him saying quarters, not years, but that initial target was by the end of this year. Lyfts is next year. Deidre, thank you deidre bosa. Interesting, guy, to think that you can suspend your guidance and still have a projection for profitability. To me, im scratching my head. Especially in the current environment that we find ourselves in when nobody knows what the worlds going to look like a week from that let alone six months, and i dont know how to sort of gauge this. Uber added probably, i dont know, 7 billion in market cap today on the back of deidre said and thats a market that we find ourselves in and thats why a lot of people, myself included find themselves scratching their collective heads we played the game last night, would you rather ill play it for night two once again. I would still rather lyft, but the move today in uber both during the day now in the postmarket is again to use the word remarkable. Youre forgiven for the self would you rather dan nathan, it looked like in the quarter you could actually see the other businesses really firing namely eats, for instance its showing strength in other ancillary businesses no doubt about it i mean, listen, was there clearly a dislike in that business and the moneylosing aspect of it prior to the pandemic and its nice to see some other leverage to pull when the rides business is floundering. It is astounding to me that the stock is up on the year when you consider that there will be serious Behavioral Changes how consumers interact with this Service Going forward. That being said, its pretty nascent if you think about it in the grand scheme of things the stuff will be around for a while and the thing that we were just told, though, about the profitability, im with guy here they have a mulligan why put it out there, you know i think you can kind of keep this thing as kind of opaque as possible in the meantime, but i just dont know. I would not be buying it after the twoday run its had gene munster has been on the call. Profitability in 2021 and yet they pulled guidance, it doesnt make any sense to us does it make sense to you . It does not i dont know where that confidence comes from. I think its potentially leading investors in a distant direction and this quarter is not as clean as it looks with the up 10 . I would caution, yes, uber eats is on fire and it is 25 on bookings up 54 and that is a good thing and eats, that loses money and so were losing money than the other business. They burn cash and went from 11. 3 billion to 9 billion. Keep in mind that lyfts cash was flat quarter on quarter. They talked about a billion in cost savings and lyft talked about 500 million in cost savings and when you compare the different sizes of the mralt form and the fact that lyft is four times bigger and theyve saved 2 billion to be compared to the 500 million they lost market sthar rides are down 5 year over year and the bookings are up 23 for lyft, and i think this is quite perplexing and not only the comments about the profitability and no company has any visibility with probably a week at this point, but what i think it really speaks to this move in the stock is just investors appetite for good news its just were so much looking forward to that and so when he talks about some of the previous week, i think it gets a substantial rating when i put this together, theyve done a good job, but this is still a company that is going to have a lot of moving parts. One last thing just on eats that your viewers should keep in mind, too. We talked about the fact that this loses money more than a typical business we have 20 or 25 share in the u. S. Doordash is the large west 40 or 45 share we dont talk a lot about door bash because its a private company, but ultimately, this is a really competitive business. Again, i did this yesterday. I applaud lyft for not going after something shiny here and trying to get into that business i think its a trap. Tim, youve got a question. Hey, gene, what do you think about 31 million uber rewards and what do you think about the relationship theyre touting with 46 with fortune 500 companies. Are these a part of the foundation of the business that give you more confidence and stickiness in an uncertain environment . Its good for the rewards and the relationships that they have lyft has similar types of relationships and i dont know what the percentage is, but its similar. I think ultimately, there is a bigger question at play thats not talked about here beyond the rewards and the current numbers and all of the noise in the numbers is that weve talked a lot about the key questions is around safety and reinvestors a talking about the safety of your own car and how that would impact long term behavior and how we think about transportation in the future so, for example, if we worked more from home, if we traveled to the airport, and that was 9 of bookings for lyft if we have more groceries delivered to our home and dont use a Ridesharing Service to get there. To me thats probably one of the most underappreciated questions here, incredibly difficult to answer, but that question of how has everything weve gone through with the pandemic accelerated this future and does it include people not moving around as much. Gene, good to get your take on this. Gene munster of loup ventures. When gene said lyft gets 9 of the revenues on trip to the airport and to take a look at how the airlines are doing and the decimation of the flight schedule and what expectations we have for that to return to normal for people to get to the airport. The Ripple Effect is just amazing. It is thats a big number. 9 youre exactly right how do you have guidance, when you know, when everythi