Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 12, 2024

Economy as well. With concern that it would hurt the reopenings that would have been under way along with another round of infections because of all the demonstrations diane swan tweeted out today, theres little question the events of this weekend will affect the economy what started as a health crisis, but much more. The riots lasted, how long he wrote a long piece saying, its too soon to know how the economy will transition. The timing and trajectory of broad economic recovery will not be altered hopefully we can find ways to expand opportunity, a way that will more effectively tap the potential of everyone. That will be good for the economy long term. The economic story this week, before the issues was going to be about bouncing off the bottom and indeed we have a paradox here bouncing off of terrible numbers to numbers that are still absolutely terrible. The ism today coming in above 43 were looking for 44 its better than the 41 we have. Same story with ism services on wednesday. The jobless claims are terrible, but not as terrible. We have another 8 million unemployed, that will be accompanied by a 20 unemployment rate. That will be on the way up there is some analogs here, its a terrible one but to the 1960s, which didnt have much overall effect on economic or overall gdp. But there were several studies that show that the impact on africanamerican businesses, africanamerican employment and income over time and can stretch out decades from riots like these, but however in the 60s, they were talking about four years worth of unrest. In terms of how the pandemic has negatively impacted the economy, i mean, is it the economist consensus view that it has impacted the less economically advantaged people in society and therefore these protests have the potential of making that divide even greater and in as much as that economic divide translates into an opportunity divide as well that exacerbates problems. I think thats right on all those counts, melissa. The data showed that africanamericans have suffered more when it comes to unemployment from the covid crisis they have suffered more when it comes to the Health Effects from the covid crisis. And you went into this with record levels of inequality and whats going to happen here is inequality is going to be made worse. You had a decline in the africanamerican and hispanic unemployment rates you had longstanding issues, and they were exacerbated by the crisis and then youre going to have a knock on effect if these destroy property in the innercities, which by the way, i think you already know, the innercities are going to be challenged anyway, because of peoples concern about high density population steve, thank you. Steve liesman. Its a difficult conversation to have in that we dont like to look at the markets through this prism of peoples lives, and inequality and society its a conversation that we have to have, because it does have an impact on our economic well being which impacts all of society. And also impacts, of course, the markets. When people are looking at risk appetites frankly, there has been a bit of a disconnect and when you look at the pain thats going on in the country and some of the trends that were talking about. The secular trends for u. S. Cities are not good. Whether its commercial real estate, whether its some of the essentially the small chains that are packing up and leaving. Which assets performed today. It was an interesting day, in that if you look at equities, we at times in the last two weeks and really two months, spent time talking about oversimplifying the growth if you look at what was moving today. You had a dollar thats almost 5 off of its top. The dollar move lower has been very supportive to minors and reflation trades look at some of the steel companies, look at those trades. Amazon, apple, some of the mega cap tech names have been basically pushing back to all time highs have not given any ground, while you had a strong day for airlines its clear to me that to sum up, markets right now are not addressing the job loss. They just arent theyre looking at stimulus packages, whether it was jaime dimon saying there are many consumers in the u. S. That are better off because of stimulus, because of them Household Income right now. Thats part of what the market is calculating. Sort of the leaders that have been working for a long time a little more defensively, like the Large Cap Technology plays the reopening trade was well under way. We mentioned the airlines, retail doing well. Casinos, cruise lines, the things that would really benefit from the economy just resuming its activity, really thrived today. Yeah, absolutely, i think what people are at least to me, the message from the market, theyre saying people are going to get back to business in general a lot faster than perhaps we thought in april or so thats not my particular view on the market i think weve had quite a tremendous run, i dont think when youre talking markets. When markets are at their highs, thats when you want to start pairing off some risk as opposed to adding on the risk. We said, hey, listen, this could be a big shortcoming rally its been quite a rally. Now is the time to take a little off the table in my view im curious as to what is going on in america factors in at all eastern if its just an additional risk at the margins kbuz going into this weekend we had the fears about reopening or the concerns about reopening would not be as robust there are plenty of other reasons to be cautious i think the market is conditioned to there are so many examples of these being short lived. There are a couple variables here that make this different. Potentially, so you have people gathering, this is predicated on people getting out of their house. Does this delay that in some way . It hasnt been a rotation, its been a difference. Is that going to be able to continue, just given the backdr backdrop the protests aside, we already had a lot of risks, we had a lot of these typical correlation breakdowns, the market rising, pmis falling and remaining depressed. How long is that sustainable i dont know its an interesting technical set up here, as we have had this broadening out, we now have 96 of the s p 500 trading above its 50 day moving average. This is similar to some of the biggest momentum surges weve seen over the past 50 years. Near term, the market is over bought the ratio continues to be really low. Over the next two or three months, you have to err on the side of us, at least consolidating, if not correcting ive been so bearish over the last couple weeks, the momentum surge ive been talking about, it would be consistent with the consolidation or correction. If you look out six to twelve months its been bullish you look at 91, the early 2000s. All of these durable lows were associated with surges like this over the long term, it ended up being a good sign. Well see, maybe thats something to hang around that is a Silver Lining, that is a staggering stat in case you didnt have your pencils and papers out when jeff mills was going through it steve grasso, what do you make of this technical setup here i think theres so much to unpack with what the rest of the traders had to message that fluctuated and that pushed around a lot of the indexes. Today you have the first day back after that rebound. I wouldnt make too much of it on a day to day bet. But lets get back to what bk said you had such an over reaction to the down side that people were betting against this market ever opening up again now, the market starts to open up again andpeople are lopsided when b. K. Was talking about a massive Short Covering rally, yes, weve seen that now, the 200 moving day average to throw a technical technical is at 3000 now were at 3055. If you start to look at it, use that as your bold bear barome r barometer, whether you want to put risk on or take risk off i think i would err on the side of being cautious now. If volatility spikes again and you have the reinfection rate and you get hospitalization rates starting to get off the charts you dont have earningsto fall back on any more so you sort of have a market that is looking for guidance, over reacted to the down side, now pushing higher, i think what jeff said is really important to leave off on its a broadening of the marketplace that is rally. Used to be tech, used to be fang its not just about rotation if we can get the growth names and the value names start to perform while the growth is there. The market can make new highs. I dont think theres any reason for the market to make new highs just yet but obviously the bears are on the run right now, and its about two things, corona and the fed. You get a headline out of spain with no new deaths in the last 24 hours, thats a tremendous tail wind for the market you get stimulus from every central bank in the planet on the globe, you cant get in front of this. I would say to wrap it up with tims statement, watch the gold miners, watch gold, printing has to catch up at some point. By the way, we should point out that steve is joining us on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange your next guest by the way, says one key part of the market could see more downside risks. Lets bring in julia emmanuel. Always great to speak with you great to be with you. You think small caps could be hit the hardest . Whats the thesis behind that . All this talk that weve had about the momentum surge upward, the fact is, once the bear market ends and were not ready to say that this is a new bull market, but weve certainly rallied massively off the lows, more than 50 . When you look at small caps. Theres a unique risk to the potential for a pull back. You look at small caps, basically what you have is aside from the strain of the social unrest, youve also got this dynamic whereby the government is sort of slow playing the stimulus, and if there is any Silver Lining, and its very difficult to find the Silver Lining the amount of tragedy weve seen in the last few days, maybe the scenes that our government is seeing, will cause them to accelerate the stimulus, which americas workers and Small Businesses need. And to the extent that that is delayed toward the fall, thats the risk the small caps in our view just to be clear. Its the run in the small caps plus the delayed stimulus, is that correct and in terms of the pull back that youre predicting in small caps, is it going to be deeper than that of the one youre predicting for the broader markets . From our point of view again, what we think is this trade over 3,000, its significant when you look at todays market action, what it tells you is that you had not just a daily close, but a weekly and a monthly close over 3,000 a lot of the action today is attributed to the passive money coming in, based on the technical signals. From our point of view, what this does, rather than a break out to a new higher range its an extension of the range we see roughly between the 200 week moving average which is that 2680 right now and this area slightly above 3,000, which we think is resistant. What were trying to say is, as an investor, you need to be prepared for a pull back of 15 or so. Were not saying its a definite the summer is likely to be less volatile, when you think about the previous 11 years bull market our advice has always been when we felt stockswere getting ahead of themselves, to prepare for pull backs of 10 to 15 . Now thats centered really more around 15 youre still forecasting new highs for the markets by 2021. This could be a sharp recovery from that 10 to 15 . Absolutely. Absolutely and if you think about it in volatility terms, we are in a new range for volatility, we spent several years with the vicks bouncing between 10 and 20 we would expect the next several years for the vicks to be bouncing 40 or higher. And within that context, its reasonable to expect 15 moves up and down. And ultimately in our view, is if the economy recovers at a pace whereby you sort of buy the economy enough time for medical development. Thats really the recipe that gets you to new highs next year. Julian, thank you brian kelly. What do you make of julians comments its interesting when julian talks about the delayed stimulus as we get toward the end of june, some of this kind of initial sugar high that came in with this big stimulus package on the fiscal and monetary side. Those start to lose a little bit of their impact. It will be interesting to see. As the country reopens as businesses reopen as theyre 25 50 full what does that do to the economy. I think thats whats reflecting in jewel yangs commentary we could have a correction here. Thats probably more aligned with my view, listen, if youre inclined to buy dips in this market at certain times you need to be taking profits to raise cash so you can buy that dip this is not a terrible time to do that. Take a little bit of profit, watch what happens lets see if theres continued infection rates. And then you can make a decision whether or not you want to deploy another 10 or 15 i think julian, were on the same side. Coming up, the race for a cure heating up today, well tell you before a double dose of headlines from two big drug makers shares of chipotle red host today after the company got a new street high price. You doing okay . Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. We got a double dose of headlines today. Lets get to meg terrell with all the details. Lets start with eli lilly, they announced this morning that they dosed the first patients in a phase one Clinical Trial of their antibody treatment for covid19 this is the first of this class of drugs to enter the clinic, and they derived the medicine from a survivor of covid19. One of the earliest patients in the United States to have recovered from the disease its an antibody drug used to treat the disease about theyre beginning this phase one trial in about 32 patients this puts them ahead of regeneron which is expected to begin human Clinical Trials of its drug this month. Lilly accelerated those time lines. They have slightly different approaches will lilly is one single antibody. And regeneron is a cocktail of two different antibodies lilly said so far, what theyve seen in terms of mutations, this antibody blocks against all of those. They say theyre going to continue to look at it over to gilead that stock down today. Even as they reported a positive phase three trial of remdesivir. It did show that those on a fiveday course of the drug were 65 more likely to improve clinically versus the standard of care. While patients got a 10day course, that was not statistically significant. Analysts saying this further shows that drug works, it does have a benefit the benefit isnt a huge one kind of further spelling out what we already know about remdesivir marginal clinical benefit, which really sounds like it wont even it wont be completely viable as the commercial product in that the demand wont be there because its so marginal in terms of the impact the demand is there because it has some impact right now its the only thing thats been proven to work, so the key question for gilead is the supply theyre working off a donated supply and trying to ramp it up, and then were going to hear over the next few weeks where theyre going to price this medicine and theres a huge debate over where they should price it, and will they make money from this drug because brians saying, this isnt going to be a big impact on them. For now, this is the only drug thats approved to have any effect on covid19 tim seymour, this is a conversation weve had time and time again in terms of how we view the company that seems to come up with the holy grail of treatment or vaccine thats amazing thats great to hear, but from an investor standpoint, is it going to be laroche and tamm ma flu all over again where it was an initial bump and then it tails off. Gilead is that stock that is the proxy case to examine that, if we think about gilead, i think its had a bigger impact for market days and for a cat lift to the market and some sense that we are going to get treatment. Again, not vaccine and i think thats really the most important part of what these headlines have been about for any of them. Whether it was abbott on testing and even on some level as we got to the ma dern in a news this is a stock thats largely been sideways for two years. And this is a stock thats largely a very strong Balance Sheet. Has dabbled in cart looking at how to get hiv success stories. We watched how it went from being a driver to something that even if we had fantastic news tomorrow out of gilead, we wonder how profitable. Coronavirus has been a catalyst for investors to get into the ibbtf thats why weve seen this leg higher wondering where you stand on it. Overall, ibb has done really well year to date. It broke out of a threeyear Training Range from that point its gone to a b line which is the all time high we saw in july of 2015. Its at another difficult technical level now after that run between that breakout. Its not cheap now, perhaps that doesnt matter, if we breakthrough this techniqcal level. I would be somewhat cautious and either way were at an important price juncture here, i would watch it over the next couple days to see how it reacts. I dont think you can trade any of these names based on the headlines. Sure, some might benefit in the near term if things go well. Really, its like throwing darts, its going to be difficult to pick the winners and losers beforehand. Gilead and eli lilly, theyre just different stocks. 20 billion in cash, they have a lot of irons in the fire, some of those are going to need to come to fruition but at less than 12 times earnings, not a bad rilsing reward you have a stock like lilly where the earnings and the growth is much more apparent youre paying up for it. Youre paying 21 times lilly is perhaps the safer play here, but probably less upside a virtual walkout at facebook as Mark Zuckerberg comes under fire from employees. Is social media in a lose lose situation when it comes to handling civil unrest. A new all time high for zoom as the company gets ready to present earnings well find out what the Options Markets are saying tempurpedics mission is to give you truly transformative sleep. So, no more tossing and turning. Because only tempurpedic adapts and responds to your body. So you get deep, uninterrupted sleep. During the tempurpedic summer of sleep, all tempurpedic mattresses are on sale durinsnhu lets yo

© 2025 Vimarsana