Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 12, 2024

Its been an unstoppable run for this stock up more than 160 from its lows in late march. One analyst think its got even more fuel in the tank. He will joins as power lunch starts right now the dow is higher for the sixth day in the row thats pacing for the longest winning streak since september lets get to bob for more on the markets. We are sitting at session highs. A little pop about an hour ago that was declared we had entered a recession in february. Let me show you because once again its the reopening story thats moving the tstocks laggig two weeks ago had been leadership groups. Tech is under performing its very interesting how its underperforming. Its not like they are selling them the volume is light in this sector its not a lot of buying interest the same with megacaps you know about the megacap leadership apple is at a new high this is another interesting group. Visa and mastercard have been monsters they have showing some lack of interest today a bit of rotation as we go into the other groups i want to remind everybody what drives stocks. What i think we need is we need some Earnings Guidance to really move the markets earnings, are they growing or not in theyre not growing theyre going down the market multiple is expanding. What we need to see, all of those 40 of the companies that with drew guidance, we need a few of them to come out. Weve got a better idea of whats going on now. Thats wh the market needs to move into the next phase back to you. Thats a key point to watch thank you very much. The dow is higher today as bob was just discussing. We are coming off three straight weeks of gains earlier on squawk box investor said hes been caught off guard by the quick Market Recovery what is clearly happening is the excitement of preopening is allowing a lot of these companies that have been casualties of covid to come back and come back in force and with a combination of helped with the fed money and in particular a vaccine whether the news has been very, very good are there more gains ahead . Bryan, should i believe the v recovery and does it matter if i do or i dont . The market doesnt seem to really care its just going ahead. Thanks for having us. We went through this post the financial crisis every one was looking for the correct letter of the recovery which ended up being a big giant sauce recovery with the slowest most boring economic recovery in history. I think people that make bombastic calls, its humbling the scope of the the climb has been brought by overly negative macro data and macro forecast that came out in february and march that everybody focused on my whole issue with the market continues to be that people are way too macro focused. Thats why the stock market has been rallying because its not just about the fed its a big part of it but it has to do with we have Great Companies if the United States were going to see guidance come back and thats why the market is up. Does the second half get easier for stock picking or harde harder. I think it gets harder. We have this initial v shape but the economy will be, at least, not accelerating quite as fast we do have the potential for a second wave. I think most important, you have the u. S. Election which well be talking a lot more in the next couple of months potential for a blue wave which i think will be fine for the overall economy redistribution of economy for those who have more of a propensity to consume it for the u. S. Market on a relative basis thats going to be a little bit tricky. I want to push back on something, if you dont mind, were at session highs if theres a blue or democratic wave that results in change in the white house, a change in the senate that the economy would motor right along. I question that because generally, the Democratic Party has called for raising Corporate Taxes. They certainly are not going to be calling, it would seem to me for a payroll tax cut nor would they seem to be calling for a cut in Capital Gains rate which is larry kudlow has called for i wonder whether a blue wave would be a nonevent for investors and corporations i wouldnt say that at all. This is where we have to distinguish between the economy and the market the economy would be okay because its broadly a redistribution its more money in hands of people who spend it. Its more investment theres no question that the market will get lhit by a blue wave because likely Corporate Tax will go up and theres going to be a change in regulatory policy its not always the economy and the market move the same Corporate Tax rates go up. Thats going to hurt the market. The economy after perhaps a bit of a liblip you draw a bright line distinction between a blue wave being sort of a nonevent for the economy because money is just going to be moved around and whose pockets it lands in my be different but it lands in somebodys pockets and it might be good because it creates a propensity to spend if it lands in right pockets but a difference on the market give us your thought on the election risk and to the economy. I think evan is spot on with respect to what happens traditionally when you have a democrat in the white house and actually this blue wave or whatever has gone over the weekend. That was usually one of the big bullet point conclusions that i read over the weekend. I think its way too early i think its way too early now that covid, thank god, started to decline in terms of worries and the markets have gone up. Now we start to talk about the election i think peoples views are way too emotional. Lets go back from a fundamental perspective, less registrationlatioregulation, less taxes i think its really difficult to make this emotional more feeling type of conclusion with respect to the president of the administration i think people are being led with their emotion and not led with analysis. All right thank you very much. Kelly. New york entering phase one of its reopening process reporter as officer workers return, it will not be business as usual starting at the front door the ceo of relates gave us an exclusive look inside as well o sector the days of 8 00 to 8 00 zoom calls is not that productive they will be greeted by they are cal scanning equipment if your temperature is over 104, youre retested with a hand scanner and if its till that high, you have to go home. That swipe tells the elevator where youre going you dont need to touch the buttons. Elevators will be limited to four riders. Hudson yard already had state of the art air filter systems but they will pump up the circulation. Im curious about a couple of things number one has this dented at all the attractiveness of hudson yard Going Forward and what about privacy concerns for some of measures that are under consideration . Reporter the privacy concerns we asked jeff about and he said none of it is recorded its all anonymous if your temperature is too high and youre told to go home, they dont ask your to name they dont record it anywhere. Everything is anonymoanonymous. You can expect to see more people come back in the offices. He plans to have even more by september. Really depending on the citys phases to reopen thanks so much. Thank you. Coming up, we are right near the highs of the session maybe backed off a little bit. Oil lower today but Energy Stocks are on fire leading the market along with industrials like boeing. That move is, a lot of this move youre looking at is thanks to boeing double digits again today. Were talk to one analyst who says this recovery rally has more runway right after this lbeig bk. K. Wel rhtac this is decision tec. Find a stock based on your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. Welcome back, everybody. Airline stocks are moving higher again today as investors remain optimistic about a quick snap back in the travel industry. Phil has the details hi, phil there are more people flying. This weekend we had two days where the number of people screened by the tsa topped 400,000. Thats the first time we have seen that since around march 22nd you might say it looks like towards an up tick were still down 83. 5 compared to the same time last year while there is some mild improvement here, its a long ways from where things were precovid19 the Airline Index is up 79 in the last month easily out performing the s p 500. Is this case of the stocks going too far, too fast. Are the airlines optimistic. Closing bell will have ceo of jet blue on exclusively. Thats next hour shares are on track for the best month ever you might be saying best month wasnt it last monday. One week the stock is up 55 in the last week boeing will report its may orders and deliveries tomorrow keep in mind year to date, negative 516 in terms of order theyve had more cancellations, more adjustments in the backlog and thats probably going to be similar story tomorrow well find out tomorrow morning when the actual orders and delivery numbers come up back to you. Thanks so much. Our next guest initiated coverage with boeing and a 277 price target saying the risk is baked in now the shares are still 30 on the year welcome thank you very much good afternoon this will be an interesting discussion because we spoke last week with a boeing analyst who is much more cautious. His concern was around the max tlifrly schedule whats your expectation as we look into next year and beyond in. Its fairly light most are deliveries coming out of inventory what i assume is right now for many numbers is the max would return to service in september what i also called out in the notes specifically was that there was risk that could slip every possibility that risk could slip i thought the most important thing had most to do with long Term Forecast and how i think boeing will perform Going Forward. What does that look like . I think if you were to take a look, i think what was needed here was some perspective. Also, whether or not in the long term boeings delivery forecast is reasonable. Putting that in doesnt sit fit with historical trends and what we have seen boeing coming out of a recession im curious as well if we talk about the 277 price target, what does that valuation for you predicated on. Were only about 40 off of that level right now. The stocks moved up a bit more than i would have thought and one day certainly. My price target was based on a 2023 estimate of about a bit over 18 a share catsh flow. It was predicated on boeing returning to what we call a mid sickle valuation boeing is a cyclical stock i think what happens is as we move and start to discount mid cycle, i think multiples expand. The price target was based on a mid cycle multiple 15 times and 1845 a share. You thought it could return in september or by year end. Were getting used to hearing these endless forecasts for its return that never come true. I dont know if covid has probably added complications around both the governments abilities to kind of move this along and maybe some additional safety procedures in terms of manufacturing the plane and so forth. What happens if the max isnt back by january . The main thing here, i think. You have to assume the max is going to return within some reasonable time frame. Maybe as i said to the end and maybe even january i take a look at boeing in terms of the long term, what i think a recovery is going to look li like thats a more important thing. That assumes the max is going to return to service in some reasonable time frame. Want to be sure the max is meets their standards. If i can jump in with a quick question if you can put it into simple terms for me, how healthy do airline s have to be for boeing to be yell thi its inching back. Some think it will be years, not months before it gets back to anything approaching the prepandem prepandemic generally airline vs to be fairly yell thi in other words to be able to buy airplanes. They have to be profitable now the other thing is the other good news is that if you take a look, this is not this situation coming out of a recession isnt entirely unique. Coming out of a recession airline suffer and have to return to health, et cetera. Thats the thing i look at and i think they have. Theyre Production Forecast is quite a bit less than what they had planned for precrisis. You have to be really healthy but i think boeing accounting for that thank you so much for your time today we appreciate it still ahead, amazon is higher as the stock is set to rally as more people will continue to order online even after the lockdowns are over the traders will debate that call, next plus another winner of the coronavirus pandemic private equity vanity fair writer will join us to talk about why private equity may be too big to fail right now. More power lunch is flexion. Min. Min. Oh yeah, we gotta take off. You downloaded the Td Ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets . Yeah, actually im taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. Excellent. And you have thinkorswim mobile so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. You two are all set. Have a great flight. Thanks. Well see ya. Ah, theyre getting so smart. 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The analyst behind the call on cnbc earlier today maybe most bullish of all, prime penetration. It reached a record high level 67 of u. S. Households appear to be prime members lets debate with trading nation team today. Do you think the good news is reflected in shares of amazon . Its had a great year i think the key take away pr the report is the top three categories with consumer interested in apparel and groceries are the least penetrated by Online Amazon has this enormous potential to increase its foo footprint in all sorts of retail that wasnt available before i think at its core, amazon is really about reducing friction in all sorts of transactions. To me, amazon is unique as a big company. They are just focused on the customer ta are not guilty of this monopolistic disease which is my way or the highway they are constantly trying to make it better for the customer. Perhaps not short but when looking at the stock, should you stay long . Yes, you should whats important to note is the rallies for april in amazon marked very important break out through 18 month resistance dating back to september of 2018 following such an extended period of little progress for the stock, we see the runway for additional up side and we think the stocks will be rewarded given the bullish macro backdrop as well. Theres very little resistance on the up side we can point to when it comes to investing, so important to let your winners run and this is a winner all right well leave it there for more trading nation head to our website or follow us on twitter. Back to you. Thanks very much ahead, has private equity become too big to fail and will you be on the hook for their losses well dig into that. A Huge Movement is sweeping america forcing investors to rethink everything including where they put their money billions of dollars are flooding into esg funds well talk to top funds manager about those trends, coming up. Stock slices. 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