Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 12, 2024

Weve given all of that back and then some. Yesterday, the market was down by 1,861 a decline of 2,443 points. All of that over the previous sessions we had given back futures are up by 626. Normally, thats the type of move that would make you sit up and say wow s p indicated up 69 points nasdaq up 192. Treasury yields have been moving all over the place as well we did see the 10year on monday up 0. 9 . Higher than that this morning, up 0. 2 on trading yesterday. Accelerated on the day everybody was on tender hooks to watch what would be happening here are some highlights of what is on tap car line, former citigroup ceo, former white house chief of staff, founder and chairman of Interactive Brokers joining us there. A lot going on there todays top story, uk gdp following 20. 4 in april the largest monthly fall on record as the pandemic lockdowns have battered the economy. Londons ftse down more than 18 , thats just year to date. Has liesman heard yesterday, the annual kansas fed symposium in jackson hole canceled steve gets to fly fishing out there. Instead, their have a Virtual Meeting navigating the decade ahead where Interest Rates will be zero the entire time. No, no maybe not. He didnt say that but zero for a while thats a big job to go out 10 years on anything. Not necessarily well be zero for a while unless we go negative lets not go negative when people go low, lets go high first year since 1982 and i think liesman has been to every one. It is the kansas city fed. A great place. Great jazz great states i pick jackson hole too right makes sense. Especially in the summer. We do talk about it every year, right . Used to be greenspan and bernanke every year, there is big market news that happens just in time for that. So it plays right into their hands. It is awesome to go to steve and hear everything they are talking about. In recent years, there seems to be market turmoil that takes place around it. Virtual doesnt do it compared to jackson hole it is such a great spot. Dry, sunny it is nice good place fishing for steve room to move. Quicken loans is expected to file as soon as this month reporting the target valuation is still being worked out but still would be in the tens of billions that could surpass the largest which is warner media group. Phenomenal that this company has not gone public just with what they planned to do in this industry theyve moved far ahead of everything theyve seen there. You anticipate that this would be an ipo that picks up a great amount of interest a stock ipo or just based on real estate, mortgages and Interest Rates things like that it is a stock. Based on their book they have a massive mortgage book based on something, not on a cruise ship, a cruise line or something much more. No. This is a real business. With rates being so low, you are seeing demand with those getting more mortgages and refinancing quicken loans has done an amazing thing, theyve done it so big and oner all based on tech theyll give you a delay and tell you they come back in 15 minutes. They realized people didnt believe the numbers. So they slowed down how they do these things theyve been able to do it and build up this huge branch because they rely so heavily on technology how many times did you look at the stock mark between 2 30 and 4 00 i was glued on it the entire time im not going to talk about the past but when you see things like here i go. When youve seen things like 1987, you know anything is possible it just starts snow balling. Ill tell you what i was watching the dow at a high level and those points set up. I was watching the s p one thing i was taking solace from is that it was holding above 3,000. We all would have signed on for 3,000 like two months ago. For a year end 3,000 or anybody who said 3,000, it was like, you are on there 7 when we were up last week, not saying we are out of the wood by in means i did feel a little better not necessarily sugar coating things even Scott Gottlieb said, it is not a second wave but sort of states that have gone through a second wave. Europe has been some what successful in reopening. About two weeks, a month ahead of us or so. They have not had a worse Case Scenario is there still hope. Im hopeful. There is always hope. Well show you some sound that popped up from Warren Buffett in 1962 when the market saw the greatest point drop. In 1962, he was 31 at that point. See it put into perspective. Video too i had never seen video. Ive seen pictures but never video. That should be good look forward to that he was probably similar to what he says now. Ill show you 10, 15 minutes. It reminds you of things weve seen before. That was in the middle of the kennedy slide. From january to june of 1962, you saw the s p drop 22. 5 as of one day, the dow was down 1. 85 . It had people reeling and wondering what would come next where did you find that on twitter. Not all bad when we come back, one of the biggest concerns for the markets. The resurgence of coronavirus cases in about a dozen states. Dr. Scott gottlieb will weigh in next after the selloff, we continue to watch technology. Microsoft, amazon, facebook, apple, alphabet all closing lower. Those stocks this morning, take a look at that in a moment squawk box will be right back. Can i find an Investment Firm with a truly longterm view thats been through multiple market cycles for over 85 years . With capital group, i can. Talk to your financial professional or consultant for investment risks and information. Talk to your financial professional or consultant our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. We can spend a bit now, knowing were prepared for the future. 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Is that a word maybe resurgence or the first wave arizona is reminding hospitals to be in emergency mode over the weekend as they approach 80 capacity the number of cases has risen 300 testing has increased 53 but the actual increase is quite a bit more than that positive tests have been ticking higher as tests have gone up texas set three Straight Days of hospital idsation records surpassing 2,000 a day the ceo of one houston hospital said the proportion of tests positive are all flashing warning signals. Thank you nashville mayor announced a delay of phase three of that reopening plan following a rise of covid19 cases. The majority of the Public Health metrics are satisfactory. 14day new cases remain slightly elevated, prompting us to stay in phase two of our road map joining us is dr. Scott gottlieb, former fda commissioner, cnbc contributor and serves on the boards of illumina and pfizer. Great to see you this morning. Thanks. I dont know that there is anything that really explains the markets huge surge up and decline we saw people will pin it on things saying it looks like in some of those cases with some of those states if there is a resurgence if they worry about a second wave or first wave hitting areas they hadnt seen before. How concerned are you about any of those ideas i dont think this is a socalled second wave. I think we have to look at what happens in the fall with the outbreak of a second wave. They are seeing an up tick of cases. To some extent, some states have isolated cases arizona, they are averaging 12,000 cases and in texas. They are texting more and capturing more cases but the percentage of cases are rising in arizona now 15 , texas around 7 , South Carolina around 11 . The fact that that is going up is concerning. The National Trend is still relatively flat. Around 20,000 cases a day on average. Positivity rate is around 5 perhaps they let their guard down a little bit. They have theopportunity to ge this under control and dot testing at time to trace back their sources. Doctor, joe mentioned this oped in the journal. One of the things the governor in texas mentioned saying it is much more contained than the numbers in that state would suggest referring to 45 , i believe, of the cases we have seen since early may are the function of things that have happened in nursing homes, in prisons and in isolated meat packing situations does that make sense and does that mean it is isolated not really, those institutions have been very hard hit nationally theyve become the sources of larger outbreaks across the country. What often happens is the virus gets into the setting and spreads outward to the community it would be reassuring if they were able to isolate those isolated insofar as the handling of the cities. They have a chance to get this under control when new york had a couple thousand cases. Now they have enough testing that they know the true scope of the outbreak in texas. They have an opportunity to intervene. You saw what happened in oregon overnight when the government put a pause on the reopening there. 170 cases they hit, it is a lot of cases in a small state. Another state that got through the first wave without a major epidemic texas may need to do something similar where they pull back in parts of that state. You have to ask, should bars be at 75 capacity in houston with an outbreak under way . They may want to pause things until they isolate it. If these states are showing much worse levels and potential outbreaks were we wrong to have a National Policy where we shut down the entire country at the same time . I dont believe we are going to shut down again this is going to be the new normal where we have these rolling outbreaks. Im not talking about shutting down the entire country again. Should we have shut down the hot spots before and let other areas go about their business in the outbreak too and then shut down. Sort of like a rolling shutdown or did we do the right thing by shutting down nationally thats the question people will be talking about a lot time could we have targeted better. The problem was we didnt know where the hot spots were we had no testing. We had major epidemics under way. The shutting down was driven by peoples fear and worry thats what happened in the uk. The white house did not shut down the nba the nba shut down the nba as a reaction of what was happening to people. Thats what is happening in reverse they are tired of the shut down most states didnt reopen the criteria or the white house a lot is driven by consumers, School Districts with policymakers can i follow up on this i apologize could you have seen a scenario where, for example, you shut down flights but you didnt shut down huge parts of the country you look at a hot spot in new york, part of the problem was people were continuing to fly in an out of new york for some time and we decided to keep airlines up and running entirely, if flights had been shut, wouldnt it have changed the entire dynamic . Ive heard that suggestion there were discussions about shutting the flights the volume collapsed on flights immediately. Would have denied people who needed to travel for family emergencies by and large, people stopped moving around. Would that have cut down on interstate travel anymore. When policymakers were in place where we would overreach mirroring what was going on. In local communities, where they made the decisions to close the schools, by and large. This will be debated and could we have targeted this for the regions that were hot. We didnt know we didnt. We were flying blind in february and march and take for granted how much capacity right now we did not have that in february or march. Will we be better prepared if there is a resurgence in the fall will we be prepared to better prepare for that and have the ability to do localized shut downs or do what the white house said yesterday, that we cant shut down again and we wont see any shut downs anywhere . Well be much better prepared to identify outbreaks. As we are now. Well probably have evaded our attention. Hospitalizations arent up substantially. We need to be prepared to take targeted interventions in houston, should bars be open to full capacity or would you close them for a week. Maybe or maybe not we shouldnt view targeted interventions seeing these outbreaks occur. To do it and not view it as another shut down. Even those there is a political view with that i dont think people would want that or demand it. At a local level as out breaks occur. The policy framework showing somehow how to defeat against the virus. The last day that was a very good point said her local new jersey deli had shut down after someone tested positive for covid19 that wouldnt have happened if Contact Tracing showed that customer went to a walmart or target is it fair to be shutting down Small Businesses and not the big businesses. I think it is fair for the sources that spread thinking about those establishments that facilitate that. Where there workers that suggested working customers. The essence of the Public Health work would do. Is there a certain facility where there is an outbreak under way, yes, you have to shut that facility down and make sure those workers selfquarantine to shut off the transmission. Thats what we have to do. We have the tools to do that thats better than shutting down the entire city better than where we were in march when we didnt have the tools to do that work thank you. Well see you back here on monday thank you, becky coming up, we return, as becky mentioned, a blast from the past well show you an interview, a rare one with Warren Buffett the day after a major stock market sell off in 1962 take a look at the biggest premarket gainers in the s p 500. Yeah yyeah yeah hey, hey yeah okay, give it a try. Between wisdom and curiosity, theres a bridge. Between ideas and inspiration, trauma and treatment. Gained a couple of more pounds. Thats good for the babies. Between the moments that make us who we are, and keeping them safe, private and secure, theres webex. Beautiful. Welcome back, everybody those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. A clip from Warren Buffett from 1962 a day after the dow lost 5. 8 at that point in time, that was the biggest point loss they had seen since the Great Depression. Before the bloomberg terminal or the internet and access to stock prices only ticker tape could do that it could take the tapes hours to post that trade. People would know probably three hours after the close how much money they lost on that day. You could imagine what they were feeling. This was a bigger drop thaed seen percentage wise back then, it was a pretty big deal and significant move. Here is what Warren Buffett thought the next day when he was interviewed on camera. The stock market has been a good forecaster in the past and rather poor occasionally the last four or five years, the stock market has been booming along and forecasting Better Business stock prices are 50 higher thereabouts. So maybe the stock market is really correcting a previous incorrect forecast this time rather than making a new correct one. This happened in the midst of what was called the kennedy slide from december 1961 through june of 1962 lost 22. 5 . That was a huge drop in the midst of a massive slide and uncertainty there. The bay of pigs invasion and other things happening after that, there was a huge s p boom that took place in the years and years to come after that a big run up from that time on showing these things to come and go the stock market can confound anybody at any given point i had seen old pictures of Warren Buffett before. Never heard him speak. A lot of the mannerisms are the same he was 31 years old in that interview. Hed probably say, if i knew now hes 31 how much has he learned . Hes learned a lot obviously we shouldnt assume that hes the same person he is now. That was pretty good analysis there and impression but you figure between 31 and where he is now, how many things has he seen and learned and put into his brain to come up with a lot of things he comes up with now interesting to talk about what he was like back then and what he was thinking. Mistakes he hasnt made or mistakes he hand learned yet one thing he has learned is dont come on and do Television Interviews trying to remember what i was doing at 31. I dont think it was good. Definitely wasnt on tv talking about my investments his partnership, he had just put it together in january that year i think he had 7 million he was managing at that point mostly friends and close family he had put together. I guess i was cold calling now that i think about it. Cold calling, prospecting. Using those dale kacanagy lines should i go to break now, would that be better for you looking to stocks and yesterdays 1,800 point selloff. Futures indicated up 560 points. A look at yaesterdays biggest decliners in the dow and the s p 500. As business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will you can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. Good morning welcome back here on cnbc. We are about three hours before the market opens showing you u. S. Equity futures after a red and down day showing today, the dow would open up by 572 points higher looking at about 62points higher and 175 points higher also showing you a couple of boards higher. About this time yesterday, they were among the biggest losers. United airlines higher showing you cruises and where they stand also pressing higher as well carnival cruises up to 11 a big rebound given concerns yesterday maybe about covid spread and maybe about comments where the economy and unemployment may be later this year. I think we settled on covid i dont know if powell said anything the dow coming off one of the worse percentage losses. The

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