The s p 500 posting best quarterly performance since before 1998. Lets go back in time to q 4 of 1998 the index finished the quarter of 19. 95 . In december of 1998 the employment rate stood at 4. 4 . Today we are at 13 . Back in the day u. S. Gdp growth was 6. 6 importan . Back then it was 5 . Why are we playing this song we have a few Britney Spears fans the big lebowski one of the biggest movies back in 1998. The party ended with the dotcom bubble burst what happens now, guy . Can i start the game with a would you rather there is no game. Go ahead would you rather go see Britney Spears in concert assuming we can go see concerts . Or go to amc and watch rerun of the big lebowski i know where i stand. Id go with the dude. You know something, someones in your ear right now telling you because you never saw the big lebowski. All right i read about it. Anyway, go on. Listen, good for the market unbelievable quarter, half year end, whole thing goes out on a high note. Its fantastic you cant attribute it to much more in my opinion than this fed backstop that everybody is pretty convinced we have quite frankly the news on the covid front doesnt seem to get any better fedex had a great quarter. Good for them. On the margins the market gets more expensive by the day. I see why were going higher we defended that 3,000 level we talked about the reversal yesterday. Those are all really good things it continues to be a buyer beware for me. Steve if you compare it to 98 then you have to compare it to 08. We picked 98 because it was the best performance since 98. You make your own comparison. If you compare it to 98 youre saying this is the best quarter since that but the First Quarter was the worst quarter since 2008 im trying to figure out where were going after this its sort of pick your poison. I would say this looks like 2008 and the rebound. This was a forced fall, if you will were much closer to a vaccine than when we first started i would have to assume that the markets are going to reflect that if the markets reflect that, the mis get better, the world gets better, eventually we recover and the market acts in kind. Its not going to be a quick spike higher but i dont think were going to see a collapse like we did after the 98. I know what the next step would be, where we fell after 98. Dan i just think what we have going on right now, i dont really care about 98 of 2008 whats really important is what does unemployment look like in the back half of this year and 2021 structurally some very big things changed in our economy in just the last four months. When you think about whats been happening to Small Businesses despite all of the fiscal stimulus and all of the assistance theyve gotten on the monetary side, its really going to change things for the next year to 18 months. A lot of deficiencies have been realized by a lot of companies are going to keep unemployment very high. I go back to 2009 where unemployment topped out at about 10 after the worst financial crisis weve had since the Great Depression at that point you could say obviously this is the deepest recession weve had since the Great Depression also. But i just think fundamentally things have changed a great deal i think the jobs report this thursday is going to be really important to see if that Unemployment Rate ticks back up there. Listen, the market ripped on the number at the end of may when the number was surprisingly lower. To me, i think it really relies on unemployment here i dont think we have any clear vision into what that looks like, but i suspect it stays very high for at least the next year or so. Lets say it stays high but it doesnt get worse is that all the market needs to keep climbing or at least remain stable yeah, i think so. When you talk about 1998 the most important thing is, to me, that that was the year that after the Asian Financial crisis and the russian financial crisis longterm capital blew up. You had the first orchestrated bailout by the Federal Reserve since then its been a story of fed bailouts and its gotten absurd thats exactly the analog to today. Thats why 1998 is important we had that quarter because the market was down 25 over the summer and then essentially you got every bailout that markets, it was a new concept back then and its with us today the most important thing for the markets right now is this flood of liquidity and the expectation of more stimulus is enough whether it gets done or not. I think, yes, i think the data points which dans pointing out weve got some enormous data out in the next couple of days here and around the world with the fed and liquidity where they are and no sign of ever removing emergency funding despite what he said yesterday, i think markets have to go higher. So its a bubble . I mean with the fed pumping liquidity into the system, its a bubble. Yeah. What will pop that bubble if the fed is always going to be there . I wish i could answer that. Theyd write books about me in the years to come. They might do that anyway. I dont know theres so many things that have happened over the last six months that i thought could have been nothing seems to matter. I still think the u. S. china relationship is potentially a bit of a powder keg. We dont even talk about te electithe election coming up in 4 1 2 months theres so many things out there that can move it i think right now the market seems to think the fed has their back and theyve been correct to think that ill say this. Jerome powell said when the time is right theyll put the tools back in the toolbox. No, they wont i wont saya lot of things but no, they wont they tried to put the tools back in the toolbox in october of 2018 and you saw what happened there. The market called their bluff and they brought the tools right back out theyre at a point where they can jawbone all they want about putting the tools back theyre in this now and for the longterm. Ill say i think were going to get to a point where diminishing marginal returns in terms of what the Federal Reserve can do for it. The tools dont fit in the box anymore. They tried, they failed and the tools just got bigger and stronger and did more heavy lifting. I dont know how you take that back i think whats really clear here and some very smart people that i talked to on mmt, it comes down to scarcity of risk assets you saw that sothebys art sale last night things went record after record. People are dying to put their cash into hard assets. Liquid assets, its really the stock market guy and i have been talking about this a lot if you see it break that march 9th low, 50 basis points was the close, 31 on the intraday. I think this is a lot of things that wont like that price action you just said were in it for the long haul. The analogy would be japan, whos been in it for the long haul look what happened to their Banking Sector its down 80 in the last two or three decades. Jp morgan today at 94 underperforming the broad market, i think its telling you that the back half of this year is not going nearly as rosy as the Second Quarter i also think that about rates. Keep piling into the maga and this high growth winners of the pandemic thats fine. People are making a lot of Martin Luther king, jr. Doi money doing that id rather look at jp morgan than zoom to get a sense of where this market is going the back half of this year. First half, wild first half in the books officially. We thought it would be a great time to map out the rest of 2020 with the chart master as we head into this back head. Carter worth is here to lay them out. Hi, carter. Its definitely a bubble. There is an expression, the fix is in. The fed reserve believes they had fixed it we shall see nobody is bigger than the market were looking at three excellent things, if you will. Not that i say theyre excellent, but their charts are excellent. A conventional buy, a bearish to bullish buy and a stay longbe long buy lets look at the first chart. This is ibb. It goes back to 2009 you can see it from 25 to 150. Then this tight range in which biotech has been mired for the better part of three years and theyre justs now breaking out above the tops of that its a convention generally agreed upon what a breakout is thats exactly what is going on here one area that i think is quite good for the second half second chart is a little bearish to bullish reversal buy. Its silver. It peaked in 2011 at almost 50 then collapsed weve been carting on the bottom ever since bear to bull, however you want to call it but this is also what i would characterize as something thats going to be quite good in the second half. 18 about today and i think much high i higher finally the third chart, the royalty of health care this is Thermo Fisher and danaher plotted together on a buy chart. If youre not present, get present. If you are present, stay and enjoy. Look how steady they are keep in mind you see the appreciation there over a fiveyear period, 107 what the s p has done is 49. These stocks are better than the qqq. Wait a minute, then theyre overdone heres the best part guess what their beta is pmo has a beta of. 84 and danaher of. 87 meaning they have lower beta than the market theyre outperforming not only the market but the qqq carter, always great to speak with you Carter Braxton worth of cornerstone macro. So ibb, silver or the royalty of health care, grass row, which one would you go for ibb you got amgen, gilead, biogen. Id rather be more versatile, mute my risk as i said before, the vaccine is around the corner. Its a matter of six, eight, 12 months all of these will benefit tr frm tha that it would be ibb. I agree with steve but i dont agree with steve i like the ibb too because i think these are companies that have at tratractive valuations relative to the market they have fantastic Balance Sheets this is a fiveyear breakout on the ibb. Id rather go with that case, carter you have a dynamic here where, if anything, i dont necessarily agree that a vaccine is going to be a catalyst to the sector or even one specific stock. We dont really know what the costs are going to be or the benefits again, in that myriad of choices, i definitely think ibb is breaking out and you stay there. Well take a look at big winners and losers in q2 this paves the way for one of our favorite games trade it or fade it. Lets start off with paypal at 82 this quarter. Tim, trade it or fade it you know, i reluctantly trade it im reluctant because the stock is up 40 boabove prepandemic highs. They added 7. 4 million new users in april theres no question that Contactless Payments pandemic based and also around before the pandemic stay with them im going to fade this one here listen, i think all of us have been on this train we all thought this is a secular shift that you cannot avoid. Its important to note when you talk about Contactless Payments. Venmo is not that device youre using to buy things. Its a peertopeer thing. This is a stock that broke out above 125 and now were looking at 175 this is in a matter of months. I think at ten times sales, up 110 from those lows, im saying youre going to have a better opportunity to buy this. I think you can continue to wade into this. Theres lots of different ways to play Contactless Payments im not sure venmo is it. Sdx up 71 since the start of the quarter. Guy, trade it or fade it trade it. Im going to play the game correctly. Im upset they didnt fire the trade it or fade it graphic or whatever thats your favorite part, right . I could listen to that on a loop i often do, by the way, after the show is over, but i digress. Trade it good for tim seymour been on the back of this for a while. I think commodities are going higher, i think copper will go higher playing the game correctly, i would say trade it you do a fine job of doing the audio, guy lenar big this quarter trade it or fade it . I think that everybody is in place. I think you trade the Home Builders here. I was looking to fade them earlier in this pandemic period. They are cheap rates are staying low. There are certain shifts away from urbanization that benefit these guys to me, given the valuation, liquidity, rates and some of the shifts that are likely to be around, you probably can get long even after these massive runs off their march lows im going to have to play this game correctly and im going to have to fade these. I think Home Builders are really on the expectations that the market has fallen apart under the consumer the consumer is potentially in a better place at least with stimulus and the fed reserve very low rates arent necessarily going to be enough for housing. Weve seen that for the last five years nice run on Home Builders but im not chasing them here. Well hit ge finishing the quarter in the red down 14 . Steve, tradeit or fade it . I would trade this one. If you have to think about when the economy recovers, its not if, its when. When economy recovers whats going to be better, aviation and power. Pmis are better. The entry point, youre under 7 you have the ability to have a double in this stock or at least a 30 gain rather quickly once the economy recoughkocourecovers i would be a trader of ge . Guy, would you trade it or fade it . Oh. You said it was your favorite. It is my favorite at this price point its probably worth a flier in this environment. Im disappointed it hasnt moved higher we talked about danaher earlier. Now you have some danaher dna in ge danaher was named after a creek in montana that the rails brothers were fishing on that is the more you know. You can fire that graphic if you want as well if you have it handy. Fast money classic. Its not a dime. Weve got to move on. We have an earnings alert on fedex, the stock soaring in the after hours session. Thats been handling much of this increased demand due to covid19 fedex ground seeing volumes increase by 23 . Much of that was at less profitable b to c. Operating margin falling year over year because of that b to c increase shock and awe in a good way. People were bracing for Something Like 6 or 7 margin for ground the express margins more than doubled sequentially one of the knocks on this company is theyve been overspending on cap ex a 1 billion decline the company saying every single line item was impacted by covid19 that includes a 125 million increase in operating cost, much of that to buy ppe for employees. Fedex declining to offer fouryear guidance because of the uncertainty of the virus ups with a surcharge of large retail customers, a move expected to generate 50 million for ups in june alone. Back over to you steve grasso, better than expected quarter, bigger than expected move as predicted by the Options Market here in the after hours. When i look at it on our chart right now, it hasnt maintained above the 200day moving average for any length of time since the middle of 2018. The 200day moving average is lets call it 141. Last sale is 152. 65. I would probably sell this move thinking its going to come back in range back to that 200day moving average or thereabouts. Id be a seller. One theory is put forth by citi group when they raised their price target a week or so ago to 160 a share is that with all the reopenings b to b business will be picking up. Theres really upside once you get past the roughest part of the year dan, what do you think this is one that as of todays close was down 50 from its january 2018 highs theres a whole host of issues sfoesk th specific to this Company Earnings were down about 45 prn from the peak in 2018. Earnings revision after earnings revision have pounds this thing down if they do have an inflection on that ground margin, thats where i think investors really want to see. Its a cheap stock, then you put together the optimism about a Global Recovery and you dont get to buy too many brands like this down 50 or so. I kind of agree with steve, up 1213, up 10 or so on one clip without fullyear guidance, you probably get a shot for this thing to settle back in a bit. Coming up, the race for Coronavirus Vaccine is on but the fda could slow things down we have the deeds. Lilera hare going a tt czy without sports you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. You should be mad at forced camaraderie. And you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. But youre not mad, because you have e trade, whos tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. Dont get mad. Get e trades simplified technical analysis. Swithout even on yoleaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, youll only have to pay for the data you need starting at just 15 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. 5g is now included with all new data options. Switch and save hundreds. Xfinity mobile. Welcome back to fast money. Were getting new details on the fda on what conditions need to be met for approval of a Coronavirus Vaccine. Hey, meg we are just a couple weeks away if you can believe it from the first large scale phase three covid19 vaccine trial beginning. The fda putting out guidance giving some idea of what to expect for how well these vaccines need to work and what they need to show before they get approved the fda says these vaccines have to be at least 50 effective at preventing even infection from the virus or disease and they also have to test not just one of those things but also evaluate whether they prevent severe disease and the infection as well. They say they wont accept surrogate end points, meaning you cant just show antibody generation data because they say it hasnt been proven yet what levels you need to confer protection safety is the most important thing. They say subjects must be followed for up to 12 years at least even if the vaccines are approved just to follow along and get a sense of the durability of the protection moderna say their trial will enroll 30 participants in the united states. Their primary goal is prevention of symptomatic disease and the secondary goal is avoiding hospitalization and preventing the virus from being able to infect cells pfizer is neck and neck with them planning to start a trial in july. Astr