Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20240712 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street July 12, 2024

Oil, 41. 40 we talked for a long time about mike pences hawkish speech on china from a year or two ago but pompeo yesterday oneupped that and this consulate news from china is weighing on sentiment too. Yeah, he upped the ante jim did focus us at the time on Vice President pences speech because it was quite truck lant would be a word to describe it at the time but it continues to go up in terms of the tensions, carl weve talked about it pretty much every day, whether its a backandforth over huawei, whether it has to do with conversations about closing down the app tiktok in the United States, whether it is the closing of consulates here and the response from the chinese. This is not going in a direction that many, who at least are invested in the idea of global trade, certainly, mike, would wanting to see. For sure. On the one hand the market is not necessarily overly focused to this point on these relationships and not really counting on anything to come out of it. Its not quite like the suspense leading up to some kind of trade deal which at least promised to lift the threat of further tariffs. This is much more background noise. Its a sense of i guess were going to be in for a phase the next few months of a couple of candidates competing to be tough on china, how well have to worry about this that said, i do think the market is dealing with its own issues and this is just one of these unwelcome kind of things from a different direction. The market is dealing with huge tech stocks pulling back after getting overheated, over loved, over crowded, overowned. And the real question is can the rest of the market absorb that is this is all going to be as it is now a routine pullback in some of the favorite names so far its okay, it just seems like the market as a whole is back in the trading range we got stuck in for six weeks starting in june. Thats where the s p sits right now. So the china stuff on top of it absolutely not welcome, but i dont think that this was a market already geared for some kind of global trade revival that this would now threaten, carl. Interesting, mike you mentioned the earnings names that have not done well in the wake of results. Netflix, intel well talk about in a moment, microsoft, citrix if were relying on extech to support us, its going to be a challenge given that open table, global mobility, theyre all suggesting that the economy if not rolling over is at least flattening out. Yeah, were not seeing the growth that we were a month ago, even the jobless claims number, carl, also showing a weakening again perhaps. And thats the concern california, texas and florida are not insignificant states i know Everybody Knows that. Theyre the three largest states in the country their economies alone are enormous taken together, that adds up when they are all dealing with well, you heard Governor Abbott earlier on squawk box of texas hes talking about a plateau there but theyre not ready to fully open up again after having rolled back a bit in terms of whats going on. And Economic Activity in those states, particularly that of consumers in terms of going out, going to restaurants, bars, and all the other things has pulled back a bit thats going to have an impact, mike although, again, thats one sector of the market and not necessarily related to the big names that as you pointed out have leveled out a little bit of late but certainly have powered us for some time. Its interesting because you do have that unease about exactly what the cadence of this economic revival, if thats what its going to be, is right now 10year treasury yields still under 0. 6 theres going to be a ton of economic slack for a long period of time. But the way the Market Department with that was well just hide in the big nasdaq stocks because as a category they represent quality and safety so maybe that trade is being challenged just a little bit right here and actually not quite in the faang area, but in big tech we are going to dig deeper into intel following those numbers last night its warning of a delay in developing new Chip Technology shares tumbling this morning, back into negative territory for the year its been pretty much a unanimous and vociferous voice from the street that it was a big disappointment joining us now, joseph moore joe, good morning. Put this into context for us in terms of the reaction to this news that intel had yesterday of a delay in this generation of new products, and what does it mean for the Competitive Landscape for intel and i guess is it now getting already built into the valuation hi, good morning. It was a lot of moving parts to the intel numbers, both the product delay and the thirdquarter guidance indicates some issues. In terms of the product delay, the company has struggled the last couple of years they seem to be getting on somewhat firmer footing but the comment they made last night is that the first seven microprocessor products are delayed from the first half of counter 22 to second half of counter 22. Its probably more concerning in light of the yongoing issues the have had instead of a sixmonth issue. A mitigating factor is they have also talked about willingness to use found reand outsource to make sure products are on time i think a delay of the whole product road map, i think the hope theyre expressing on the call is well still have our Product Portfolio on time even if we need to go external to get there. And thats a big departure for intel. So overall certainly the product issues remain a little bit of a concern. Im probably more focused on the secondhalf guidance and the issues that may present. Certainly the product issues are a little daunting as well. Now, the outlook implied by the secondhalf guidance, joe, does it mostly come to bear with intel or is it more of an industry call . Because youre seeing right now amd rallying this morning on the intel numbers. Yeah. And i think you know, intels market share and data center is still 95 so its hard to look at it as being too Company Specific i would say the interesting dynamic this year is that intel has called out since january that this would be a very fronthalf loaded year they expected there to be some digestion in the second half and so they are guiding in line with that when you look at it in the Third Quarter of the last five years, intel has grown 13 sequentially and theyre guiding down 8 sequentially so 20 points below seasonal with pcs being down in a seasonally Strong Quarter and data center being down quite a bit i would view that as being a challenge to the overall compute space and thats been our view compute has been really strong in the first half and you need it to rotate toward more cyclical economic exposure for the back half. I think thats playing out and i think we will see it in other names. As far as amd, theyre going to be a direct beneficiary of any delay at intel because they directly compete so i get that reaction amd is reporting next week and they have exposure to parts of the market that are probably a little bit more robust than intel does so it makes sense the reaction that were seeing there, but i would say that intel is signaling that theres going to be a digestion window for server and cloud and where does that take you to in terms of a bottom line on intel. Right now youre talking about under 12 times expected earnings for this year, presuming those estimates dont go down too much obviously you have valuation in your favor is anything else yeah, i think its a very inexpensive stock. You know, when we downgraded it in june, we sort of highlighted that youre exiting this year at a pretty low run rate that i think next year numbers look pretty optimistic. If you look at their guidance that they gave last night, theyre implying q4 is 1 to 1. 10. Next years number is close to 5 that number needs to come down quite a bit. So the stock is not quite as inexpensive as it looks on forwardlooking numbers. Their cap ex is will above depreciation so the stock is inexpensive. Im not sure its inexpensive enough to be exciting of its own if were going through this weak period so im still a believer in where theyre headed long term i think they can get through these product cycle issues, but i think they have a pretty tough year in the next 12 months and i see the stock as kind of Holding Ground but not really showing that much upside in this environment. Joseph moore, thanks very much for weighing in this morning. Thank you. And stay tuned for a first on cnbc interview with intel ceo bob swan at 11 00 eastern. David. Thanks, mike. Yeah, i wanted to get to Goldman Sachs this morning as well because we got Important News from the invest bank it has settled with the malaysian government on the 1 mdb scandal. What a scandal it is a Development Bank essentially raised as much as i think it was over 12 billion over time, but at least 4. 5 billion of that was embezzled, was just spent on who knows what. Financing movies like wolf of wall street and all sorts of other things goldman raised a lot of debt for 1mdb and got paid as much as 600 million in fees and weve been talking about a settlement now for years. When David Solomon ascended to the role of ceo he talked about trying to get this behind them as one of the things he was focused on this is a very important development. Its a 2. 5 billion cash payment so it is well below some of the numbers that weve heard from the years. The malaysian government asking for perhaps at times as much as 7. 5 to 8 billion there was 1. 4 billion in guaranteed recovery value of assets but this refers to assets that have already been identified that 1mdb went out and bought that have been valued that will either be sold or they can borrow against them. So it doesnt mean cash is coming from Goldman Sachs to the malaysian government to cover that so the total is 3. 9, but the really important component is the 2. 5 billion in cash goldman has been increasing its reserves, its litigation reserves it will add to its Second Quarter reserves as well its provision for that will increase materially it says as a result of that and that will be reflected of course in their filing still to come, though, is a settlement with the department of justice, which wanted a global settlement but has been waiting to see what goldman would do with the malaysian government before moving ahead is it imminent im told no, but it should be fairly near term in terms of the settlement there we dont know what the numbers are going to be, guys. It could be another 2. 5, 3 who knows in terms of money, but it certainly is not expected to be more than what theyre paying at this point the malaysians but i will leave that in the realm of speculation overall though, mike and carl, this is seen as a positive for goldman, finally starting to get this incredible scandal behind them thats an amazing chapter being put to bed we hope for goldmans sake, david. Thanks for that. I think well take a break here weve got a lot to get to. American express obviously we havent touched on, verizon results and well talk to hans later on this hour gold above 1,900 for the first time in nine years and intel with four downgrades looking at its biggest drop on earnings in nearly 20 years. Were back in a moment save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. 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I got notification my sample arrived the next day its turnaround time for results is 48 to 72 hours. Anything after that i would worry about people taking tests and thinking the tests mean anything sure enough i got an email saying my results were in. Negative this is not the only Company Providing athome test collection the fda has authorized about a Dozen Companies to provide this service. Important to note, this is just home collection, this is not yet that sort of holy grail of actually being able to perform the test at home, sort of like a pregnancy test that is the homelapedfor next. Guys. Meg, its david the key question here is accuracy also on these instant tests or i should say the rapid tests as well Major League Baseball dealing with as this juan soto negative, negative on those but positive on the one that is more conclusive. What about how much we can actually believe when we get the results . Its the question, of course. For this test, this is the rutgers test that got emergency use authorization a few months ago. The company says that they have perhaps a false negative rate of around 10 , which they say is better than other pcr diagnostics tests. As you point out those point of care tests, the ones that are done with the abbott machines or the antigen tests, they do tend to have a higher false negative rate, so its recommended if somebody has symptoms to be retested if you get a negative with a pcr, another kind of pcr test but of course all of these, that is the main question yeah. Its got to be better than whats going on right now. Meg, thank you meg terrell of course reporting on all things related to the spread of the virus and the treatments for it and the testing, of course. Lets take a look at shares of verizon because were going to be speaking to the companys chairman and ceo later in this hour verizon reporting earnings today following at t yesterday not applestoapples comparison when it comes to customer additions so well go through that as well with mr. Vest berg. Experience the adventure of a bigger world in a highly capable lexus suv at the golden opportunity sales event. Lease the 2020 nx 300 for 339 a month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Experience amazing hey lily from at t here. With some helpful tips. Tip 1 you can currently get the amazing iphone 11 for halfoff on at t, americas Fastest Network for iphones. Second tip you can put googly eyes on your stuff to keep yourself company. Uh for example, thats heraldo. Hes my best friend. Oh, sorry nancy, i forgot you were there. Get the amazing iphone 11 for halfoff on at t, americas Fastest Network for iphones. China ripped off our intel jacket trade and its causing millions of jobs across america. It sucks supply chains from america. We stopped huawei is weve called it what it is a True National Security Threat and weve taken action accordingly. Thats the secretary of state yesterday talking about what he called the virulent strain of communism out of china and asking the Chinese People to distance themselves from xi. Well talk more about that speech and how it may impact American Business and american investing in a moment. Experience the adventure of a bigger world in a highly capable lexus suv. At the golden opportunity sales event. Get zero percent financing on all 2020 lexus models. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. China has ordered the u. S. To close the consulate in chengdu in retaliation of the u. S. Closing the chinese consulate in houston eunice yoon is in beijing to talk about what this means in terms of tensions and how strained theyre becoming. Hi, eunice theyre very strained, carl the Chinese Foreign minister referenced the deterioration in relations with his german counterpart today saying that the u. S. Is entirely to blame for these difficulties and that no country, he said, with a conscience would side with the u. S. On china. Now, these comments came after secretary of state mike pompeo made that blistering speech overnight where he was calling on countries in the free world to band against china and just stopped short of asking for regime change here in china. The Chinese Foreign ministry as we expect dismissed those remarks. They also said that they had told the consulate in chengdu to close up, that they would be closing, and state media says that its going to be 72 hours in which the staff there will have to leave. State tv has set up a live cam so that the population here can watch people leaving, once they start walking out, if they do. 38 Million People have been logged on watching the activities with some people asking when the fire brigade would arriv

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