Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240712 : vimarsana.com

I think you need about 25 points to get back to the previous record that was set, were about 25. 68 points below it. The s p futures indicated up by 21 s p has now been on a sevenday winning streak, and youre looking at the longest winning streak its seen since april of 2019 nasdaq was down yesterday, but it is indicated up by close to 60 points this morning the dow was up by over 350 points yesterday to kick off the week treasury market this morning, right now youre looking at the tenyear yielding right about where it has been. 0. 599 that yields a little higher than we have been sitting. Brian, this news about putin and this potential vaccine is huge, but i think we do need to take it with a grain of salt. Youve been all over this already this morning. Well, trying to make sense of it, becky. Good morning as well you have what you think are the markets sort of key points, right . Trillions of dollars in stimulus, potential for payroll tax cuts, all the market themes weve been talking about all day long powering the markets higher seven days in a row. You wake up at 4 00 in the morning, and russia says, oh, by the way, we have a working vaccine. Its been approved by our institute, and i gave it to my daughter says Vladimir Putin it is a huge developing story. I think, guys, it really whether or not you believe or not and theres going to be a lot of scientists that want to see the data what is this vaccine what is it based on . How many doses are available how much does it cost . Does the world get it . Either way, the market did move a little we were up before the headlines crossed, but it did move a little on this news. And i think, becky, it does call into question what happens on the day and whether that day is today or not, the day the world gets a working vaccine, what happens . What do we do . Do we i guess drink some vodka do we streak down the street i have no idea you know, i might. Look, heres how i kind of look at this news just from what weve been hearing in the last several months from experts, there is a huge debate here in the United States taking place about whether these potential vaccine candidates should be fast tracked even more and brought directly to the public before it goes through the extensive phase one, phase two, phase three testing. The phase three testing you would normally see, its a very high bar they want to make sure not only is it safe for people to take but also there is efficacy we heard from dr. Anthony fauci theres a real risk that you are not going to see something that has 90 or north in terms of its effectiveness. The fda is now looking at 50 as the floor. If they can get 50 effectiveness, they would think that is great. 60, 75 even better. But youre probably not talking about a vaccine where you have 93 effectiveness like you do with the measles shot. My guess is and this is completely a guess weve got dr. Scott gottlieb on in a little bit. We can ask him more about this my guess is the russians have taken a candidate and fast forwarded it without doing a lot of those extensive studies that youre going to see on vaccine candidates here in the United States there are people here in the United States pushing for us to do the very same thing if you talk to some of the more cautious experts, some of the people who look at this, they say, no, we do this for a reason it would be disastrous if you approved a vaccine and it turned out it wasnt safe or didnt work very well, that people would lose faith in vaccination programs its difficult enough to get people to accept vaccinations and do this. There are more people in the United States who are antivaxxers theres a real reason you go through these extensive steps. Again, totally a guess but i dont know how they would have had time to do all the testing that we are making sure every one of the vaccination candidates in the United States have gone through. Thats just a safety question i think when Scott Gottlieb does join us in five or ten minutes times one of the questions would be look at the data weve got so far from the u. S. And european triel trials if you could put safety aside, have any of them shown enough effectiveness, enough antibodies or antigens or whatever theyre trying to create im not sure were there yet on any of the u. S. Data points. To that point, whether its a safety concern or effectiveness concern with the russian vaccine, i doubt well get the data i doubt well get the data today but nonetheless the market is reacting the other thing i was going to say quickly is the last two trading sessions weve already seen a very big rotation out of the tech outperformers into cyclicals and the same thing seems to be playing out this morning if youre looking at the european markets, Asset Classes that are trading like gold golds down 2 the tenyear is almost back above 0. Of this morni6 this morg it does look like were going to sea more of those cyclical values outperform this morning brian, to your point, it would be amazing if we could see this vaccination. Thats it you know whats weird . You put out the news of course twitter is whatever you want to call it. Theres a group of people that doesnt want to believe it i dont know why that is its like oh, well, its not real or its russia. It must be fake. Maybe it is fake, who knows. Im not calling this fake news it would not surprise me if this is a real candidate. My only question is is it something that has been rigorously tested. And look, i think it is amazing and your point to what happens to the market when this happens, when you first announced this this morning, i was blow drying my hair listening to it, and when you first announced this i was like oh, my gosh what did he say this would be so amazing. Yeah, amazing and one thing weve all been waiting for i will say just in the last week identi ive been hoping and hanging my hat on this vaccine as a Silver Bullet, but what ive heard from Anthony Fauci and Scott Gottlieb did raise some concerns about how effective this is going to be whether it will be a Silver Bullet or whether we need to figure out a way to live with this over the next several years as we get better and better medications that can deal with once you get covid making sure you dont come down with the severe symptoms. And you heard Matthew Harrison talk about theres a lot of candidates out there, not just on the vaccine side but on the antibody side, the treatment side, regeneron and others he thinks we could have real candidates by september. September is next month. Let me give you a for reasons to be optimistic. The reproduction rate has been held steady. The question ive got for dr. Scott gottlieb is this were starting to get some indications that americans may be koescloser to herd immunity n we think because t cell reproduction rates have seemed higher in some communities ironically corona, queens, a few weeks ago or a month ago, they found that 25 of the population had developed t cells or antibodies and 25 was not ill indicating that perhaps there is a greater capacity for amazing bodies to skries to generate t antibodies than we think theres a lot of terrible news out there and a lot of families are suffering, but the markets, i think, have looked at the fact 1968, 60 Million People got avian flu, 150,000 or so americans ended up dying from that, about 200,000 in todays numbers. No vaccine was ever created for that you can debate whether or not we have a vaccine it still exists in some form, the point is i think the market is at least looked out a year and said life will hopefully be much different and maybe much more normal than it is right now. Thats the optimistic view the only other point bringing back to the markets is that european markets were pretty strong before this news crossed. Theyve added to that strength throughout their trading session, and asian markets also were pretty strong this morning other than china before this news broke so either way you saw quite strong reaction to u. S. To the u. S. Close yesterday in asia and european markets. Putin bought calls object dakot o the dax and then released the move. According to reports which is encouraging to all of our points whether this is to be trusted or not we want to bring some other data points as well of course this will be fabulously good news and e with all ho we all hope it is true the impact of the pandemic on different parts of the economy retail, Simon Property group said it collected about 73 of its rents from retailers in july thats up from 51 in april and may and 69 in in ujune the company said about 91 of its tenants are back open for business the ceo said he wouldnt comment on a report that said amazon was considering converting some closed stores into distribution hubs the stock closed up 5 on that news yesterday this morning adding a couple percent, 2 or 3 after the earnings report. In the meantime, airline shares surged in yesterdays session after the tsa said that air travel hit the highest volume in nearly five months 831,000 people traveled on sunday alone thats the highest level since march 17th still, tsa traffic is down about 70 from the same time a year ago. Labor unions and Airline Executives have been pushing for 25 billion in council assistan Additional Service if you take a look at the Airline Stocks, theyre surging once again today after all of the news that weve been talking about this morning and that potential for a russian vaccine because a vaccine would certainly mean that people would feel much more comfortable flying and traveling again American Airlines is leading the way among the Airline Stocks up about 5. 7 look at that, wow, good stuff there. College footballs fall season is in jeopardy. The midamerica conference threw in the towel on saturday, and now the Mountain West conference has become the second to postpone until at least next spring they want to play in the spring and i guess again in the fall. The big call is going to be from what they call the power five conferences, the big ten, the pac12, the acc, et cetera, and that decision is expected as soon as today. It all comes amid a push by some student athletes to keep the season impact. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence arguing on twitter that the players are just as likely to contract covid where they are sent home to communities where families will be responsible for their medical care and expenses as well. President trump retweeted the clemson quarterback ask and said the student athletes have been working too hard for their season to be canceled. Wewanttoplay. You talk about economic debates, and becky, i know you went to rutgers. I with dont Virginia Tech big football school, you want to have safety first, but lets not and im not saying they should play. Im not making the argument one way or the other, but i can tell you this much, the financial status of some of these big schools is going to be blown to smithereens without football not saying we should have it thats not the reason to do it if its unsafe its a multibillion dollars industry. Yeah, but the liability i mean, that has to be what they are making these decisions based on if somebody gets sick, if somebody takes it home to a parent or grandparent and they either wind up on a ventilator or die, i think the liability i probably why the schools are making these decisions the quarterbacks probably right, the idea that these kids are just as likely to come out with it in the community, the question is whos going to be responsible for it and whos liable for what happens in these situations arent thai juey just postponin to the spring at this point . Those other conferences were. Thats what they were suggesting flu season is november to february or march, right, so that would be that would seem to be less likely. But you are right, and you know, this is litigation nation, and everything does come down to that liability issue. Id just say you could have all the players if they really want to play sign waivers, for example, and obviously as you said at the top brian, it all comes back to safety the professional sports havent been that safe, which would be the deal breaker either way. I think theres another factor we should all be considering thats the utility that a lot of people, millions and millions of people get from watching it. And that should be considered. I dont think, the peak where is its a case of theres no ppe theres no Testing Capacity that means we have to totally prioritize all efforts to go to those people suffering and i think you can weigh things up to say, look, if you can get the sport on millions and millions of people want to see it and that should be also considered, i think, in these decisionmaking processes. Did you just say we should not give the ppe and the tests to the people who need it the most because we want sports back no, i did not i said were not at the point where weve run out to an extent where thats not considered. If you were short on those things, then that would apply. Clearly there is the ability to were kind of short on tests. I mean, we have millions and millions and millions of tests and i think its reasonable and we have a lot of places where you cant get it and where youre waiting seven days to get them back. Thats people suffering from the disease. No, it wolf, youve got areas where theyre able to get tests back in a day or two that should be the case. If you can get that anywhere in the nation, then i think you can have the conversation about how we have plenty of tests. If you wait seven days its completely ineffective because very few people will actually sit around and quarantine and do what theyre supposed to do and stay home and wait for that test to come back. At the moment, you think there should not be a single bit of sport being played anywhere across the whole world. Thats not what i said. We have plenty of ppe and plenty of testing id like to see more testing around the schools so we can get the schools back in rather than College Football im thrilled to have Major League Sports coming back on i think thats great theyve got the money and the ability to what im saying becky, which is totally fair and accurate is there is a different hierarchy of things that can be prioritized. School is one that should be top of the list because it brings huge value to the children and to the parents both economically, morally, socially. Similarly sports and let the kids back in school first. Of course sports on top of that initially, you know, will bring many more than just the people playing, were not doing it for their wages. Were not doing it for the tv revenue. Were doing it for the millions of people that will enjoy watching it. There is a hierarchy of things you can prioritize to bring back i know weve got to go, a couple quick things. The waivers wont work, wolf, i would just say this. This is the United States and anybody can say, well, i signed it under duress. The whole team signed it i didnt want to sign it i felt like i had to that would sort of rip up that contract if you will i know weve got the president of the university of arizona coming on rlater in the show. If youre able to come back to school, should you also play sports i can tell you this much College Students arent going to sit in their apartments and not see anybody. Im just going to make a wild assumption that whether or not youre on the football field or in a classroom or in a bar or a fraternity house, whatever it is, youre going to socialize and not limit im just making a wild guess about the behavior of College Students. People will continue to make choices either way. Yeah. Okay, guys, when we come back, we will talk more about that breaking news out of russia overnight. We will ask dr. Scott gottlieb about the Covid Vaccine that was just that just received approval by the countrys Health Ministry there. Stock futures did pick up steam after that announcement. Last we checked we were looking at the dow futures indicated up now by about 277 points. S p futures up 22. Thats just within a couple of points of where the alltime closing high is for the s p 500. Another three points higher and youd be there nasdaq indicated up by about 54 points and squawk box will be right back i keep working my way back to you, babe with a happiness that died i let it get away servicenow. The smarter way to workflow. Hike Simon Pagenaud takes the lead at the indy 500 coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. Theyre off. In the kentucky derby. Rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. He scores stanley cup champions touchdown only mahomes. The big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. News breaking overnight, if you are just waking up listen to this, russia president Vladimir Putin said that the first russian produced vaccine for covid19 has received Regulatory Approval from the countrys Health Ministry. The vaccine was developed by moscows Gamalea Institute putin said it formed stable immunity and passes all necessary safety checks. Putin also said one of his daughters has received that vaccine. Joining us is dr. Scott gottlieb, hes on the boards of pfizer and illumina. What do you think of this news weve been trying to figure out what it means and potentially where we go from here. Well, i wouldnt take it certainly not outside a Clinical Trial right now. It appears that its only been tested in several hundred patients at most some reports say its been in as few as 100 patients. Its based on a viral vector being used to deliver the gene sequence you want to elicit immunity against. Its not a trivial vaccine in terms of a technical complexity that goes into manufacturing a vaccine like this. If you remember, the chinese were also developing an add know viral vaccine. Thats in Vladimir Putin<\/a> it is a huge developing story. I think, guys, it really whether or not you believe or not and theres going to be a lot of scientists that want to see the data what is this vaccine what is it based on . How many doses are available how much does it cost . Does the world get it . Either way, the market did move a little we were up before the headlines crossed, but it did move a little on this news. And i think, becky, it does call into question what happens on the day and whether that day is today or not, the day the world gets a working vaccine, what happens . What do we do . Do we i guess drink some vodka do we streak down the street i have no idea you know, i might. Look, heres how i kind of look at this news just from what weve been hearing in the last several months from experts, there is a huge debate here in the United States<\/a> taking place about whether these potential vaccine candidates should be fast tracked even more and brought directly to the public before it goes through the extensive phase one, phase two, phase three testing. The phase three testing you would normally see, its a very high bar they want to make sure not only is it safe for people to take but also there is efficacy we heard from dr. Anthony fauci theres a real risk that you are not going to see something that has 90 or north in terms of its effectiveness. The fda is now looking at 50 as the floor. If they can get 50 effectiveness, they would think that is great. 60, 75 even better. But youre probably not talking about a vaccine where you have 93 effectiveness like you do with the measles shot. My guess is and this is completely a guess weve got dr. Scott gottlieb on in a little bit. We can ask him more about this my guess is the russians have taken a candidate and fast forwarded it without doing a lot of those extensive studies that youre going to see on vaccine candidates here in the United States<\/a> there are people here in the United States<\/a> pushing for us to do the very same thing if you talk to some of the more cautious experts, some of the people who look at this, they say, no, we do this for a reason it would be disastrous if you approved a vaccine and it turned out it wasnt safe or didnt work very well, that people would lose faith in vaccination programs its difficult enough to get people to accept vaccinations and do this. There are more people in the United States<\/a> who are antivaxxers theres a real reason you go through these extensive steps. Again, totally a guess but i dont know how they would have had time to do all the testing that we are making sure every one of the vaccination candidates in the United States<\/a> have gone through. Thats just a safety question i think when Scott Gottlieb<\/a> does join us in five or ten minutes times one of the questions would be look at the data weve got so far from the u. S. And european triel trials if you could put safety aside, have any of them shown enough effectiveness, enough antibodies or antigens or whatever theyre trying to create im not sure were there yet on any of the u. S. Data points. To that point, whether its a safety concern or effectiveness concern with the russian vaccine, i doubt well get the data i doubt well get the data today but nonetheless the market is reacting the other thing i was going to say quickly is the last two trading sessions weve already seen a very big rotation out of the tech outperformers into cyclicals and the same thing seems to be playing out this morning if youre looking at the european markets, Asset Classes<\/a> that are trading like gold golds down 2 the tenyear is almost back above 0. Of this morni6 this morg it does look like were going to sea more of those cyclical values outperform this morning brian, to your point, it would be amazing if we could see this vaccination. Thats it you know whats weird . You put out the news of course twitter is whatever you want to call it. Theres a group of people that doesnt want to believe it i dont know why that is its like oh, well, its not real or its russia. It must be fake. Maybe it is fake, who knows. Im not calling this fake news it would not surprise me if this is a real candidate. My only question is is it something that has been rigorously tested. And look, i think it is amazing and your point to what happens to the market when this happens, when you first announced this this morning, i was blow drying my hair listening to it, and when you first announced this i was like oh, my gosh what did he say this would be so amazing. Yeah, amazing and one thing weve all been waiting for i will say just in the last week identi ive been hoping and hanging my hat on this vaccine as a Silver Bullet<\/a>, but what ive heard from Anthony Fauci<\/a> and Scott Gottlieb<\/a> did raise some concerns about how effective this is going to be whether it will be a Silver Bullet<\/a> or whether we need to figure out a way to live with this over the next several years as we get better and better medications that can deal with once you get covid making sure you dont come down with the severe symptoms. And you heard Matthew Harrison<\/a> talk about theres a lot of candidates out there, not just on the vaccine side but on the antibody side, the treatment side, regeneron and others he thinks we could have real candidates by september. September is next month. Let me give you a for reasons to be optimistic. The reproduction rate has been held steady. The question ive got for dr. Scott gottlieb is this were starting to get some indications that americans may be koescloser to herd immunity n we think because t cell reproduction rates have seemed higher in some communities ironically corona, queens, a few weeks ago or a month ago, they found that 25 of the population had developed t cells or antibodies and 25 was not ill indicating that perhaps there is a greater capacity for amazing bodies to skries to generate t antibodies than we think theres a lot of terrible news out there and a lot of families are suffering, but the markets, i think, have looked at the fact 1968, 60 Million People<\/a> got avian flu, 150,000 or so americans ended up dying from that, about 200,000 in todays numbers. No vaccine was ever created for that you can debate whether or not we have a vaccine it still exists in some form, the point is i think the market is at least looked out a year and said life will hopefully be much different and maybe much more normal than it is right now. Thats the optimistic view the only other point bringing back to the markets is that european markets were pretty strong before this news crossed. Theyve added to that strength throughout their trading session, and asian markets also were pretty strong this morning other than china before this news broke so either way you saw quite strong reaction to u. S. To the u. S. Close yesterday in asia and european markets. Putin bought calls object dakot o the dax and then released the move. According to reports which is encouraging to all of our points whether this is to be trusted or not we want to bring some other data points as well of course this will be fabulously good news and e with all ho we all hope it is true the impact of the pandemic on different parts of the economy retail, Simon Property<\/a> group said it collected about 73 of its rents from retailers in july thats up from 51 in april and may and 69 in in ujune the company said about 91 of its tenants are back open for business the ceo said he wouldnt comment on a report that said amazon was considering converting some closed stores into distribution hubs the stock closed up 5 on that news yesterday this morning adding a couple percent, 2 or 3 after the earnings report. In the meantime, airline shares surged in yesterdays session after the tsa said that air travel hit the highest volume in nearly five months 831,000 people traveled on sunday alone thats the highest level since march 17th still, tsa traffic is down about 70 from the same time a year ago. Labor unions and Airline Executives<\/a> have been pushing for 25 billion in council assistan Additional Service<\/a> if you take a look at the Airline Stocks<\/a>, theyre surging once again today after all of the news that weve been talking about this morning and that potential for a russian vaccine because a vaccine would certainly mean that people would feel much more comfortable flying and traveling again American Airlines<\/a> is leading the way among the Airline Stocks<\/a> up about 5. 7 look at that, wow, good stuff there. College footballs fall season is in jeopardy. The midamerica conference threw in the towel on saturday, and now the Mountain West<\/a> conference has become the second to postpone until at least next spring they want to play in the spring and i guess again in the fall. The big call is going to be from what they call the power five conferences, the big ten, the pac12, the acc, et cetera, and that decision is expected as soon as today. It all comes amid a push by some student athletes to keep the season impact. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence<\/a> arguing on twitter that the players are just as likely to contract covid where they are sent home to communities where families will be responsible for their medical care and expenses as well. President trump retweeted the clemson quarterback ask and said the student athletes have been working too hard for their season to be canceled. Wewanttoplay. You talk about economic debates, and becky, i know you went to rutgers. I with dont Virginia Tech<\/a> big football school, you want to have safety first, but lets not and im not saying they should play. Im not making the argument one way or the other, but i can tell you this much, the financial status of some of these big schools is going to be blown to smithereens without football not saying we should have it thats not the reason to do it if its unsafe its a multibillion dollars industry. Yeah, but the liability i mean, that has to be what they are making these decisions based on if somebody gets sick, if somebody takes it home to a parent or grandparent and they either wind up on a ventilator or die, i think the liability i probably why the schools are making these decisions the quarterbacks probably right, the idea that these kids are just as likely to come out with it in the community, the question is whos going to be responsible for it and whos liable for what happens in these situations arent thai juey just postponin to the spring at this point . Those other conferences were. Thats what they were suggesting flu season is november to february or march, right, so that would be that would seem to be less likely. But you are right, and you know, this is litigation nation, and everything does come down to that liability issue. Id just say you could have all the players if they really want to play sign waivers, for example, and obviously as you said at the top brian, it all comes back to safety the professional sports havent been that safe, which would be the deal breaker either way. I think theres another factor we should all be considering thats the utility that a lot of people, millions and millions of people get from watching it. And that should be considered. I dont think, the peak where is its a case of theres no ppe theres no Testing Capacity<\/a> that means we have to totally prioritize all efforts to go to those people suffering and i think you can weigh things up to say, look, if you can get the sport on millions and millions of people want to see it and that should be also considered, i think, in these decisionmaking processes. Did you just say we should not give the ppe and the tests to the people who need it the most because we want sports back no, i did not i said were not at the point where weve run out to an extent where thats not considered. If you were short on those things, then that would apply. Clearly there is the ability to were kind of short on tests. I mean, we have millions and millions and millions of tests and i think its reasonable and we have a lot of places where you cant get it and where youre waiting seven days to get them back. Thats people suffering from the disease. No, it wolf, youve got areas where theyre able to get tests back in a day or two that should be the case. If you can get that anywhere in the nation, then i think you can have the conversation about how we have plenty of tests. If you wait seven days its completely ineffective because very few people will actually sit around and quarantine and do what theyre supposed to do and stay home and wait for that test to come back. At the moment, you think there should not be a single bit of sport being played anywhere across the whole world. Thats not what i said. We have plenty of ppe and plenty of testing id like to see more testing around the schools so we can get the schools back in rather than College Football<\/a> im thrilled to have Major League Sports<\/a> coming back on i think thats great theyve got the money and the ability to what im saying becky, which is totally fair and accurate is there is a different hierarchy of things that can be prioritized. School is one that should be top of the list because it brings huge value to the children and to the parents both economically, morally, socially. Similarly sports and let the kids back in school first. Of course sports on top of that initially, you know, will bring many more than just the people playing, were not doing it for their wages. Were not doing it for the tv revenue. Were doing it for the millions of people that will enjoy watching it. There is a hierarchy of things you can prioritize to bring back i know weve got to go, a couple quick things. The waivers wont work, wolf, i would just say this. This is the United States<\/a> and anybody can say, well, i signed it under duress. The whole team signed it i didnt want to sign it i felt like i had to that would sort of rip up that contract if you will i know weve got the president of the university of arizona coming on rlater in the show. If youre able to come back to school, should you also play sports i can tell you this much College Students<\/a> arent going to sit in their apartments and not see anybody. Im just going to make a wild assumption that whether or not youre on the football field or in a classroom or in a bar or a fraternity house, whatever it is, youre going to socialize and not limit im just making a wild guess about the behavior of College Students<\/a>. People will continue to make choices either way. Yeah. Okay, guys, when we come back, we will talk more about that breaking news out of russia overnight. We will ask dr. Scott gottlieb about the Covid Vaccine<\/a> that was just that just received approval by the countrys Health Ministry<\/a> there. Stock futures did pick up steam after that announcement. Last we checked we were looking at the dow futures indicated up now by about 277 points. S p futures up 22. Thats just within a couple of points of where the alltime closing high is for the s p 500. Another three points higher and youd be there nasdaq indicated up by about 54 points and squawk box will be right back i keep working my way back to you, babe with a happiness that died i let it get away servicenow. The smarter way to workflow. Hike Simon Pagenaud<\/a> takes the lead at the indy 500 coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. Theyre off. In the kentucky derby. Rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. He scores stanley cup champions touchdown only mahomes. The big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. News breaking overnight, if you are just waking up listen to this, russia president Vladimir Putin<\/a> said that the first russian produced vaccine for covid19 has received Regulatory Approval<\/a> from the countrys Health Ministry<\/a>. The vaccine was developed by moscows Gamalea Institute<\/a> putin said it formed stable immunity and passes all necessary safety checks. Putin also said one of his daughters has received that vaccine. Joining us is dr. Scott gottlieb, hes on the boards of pfizer and illumina. What do you think of this news weve been trying to figure out what it means and potentially where we go from here. Well, i wouldnt take it certainly not outside a Clinical Trial<\/a> right now. It appears that its only been tested in several hundred patients at most some reports say its been in as few as 100 patients. Its based on a viral vector being used to deliver the gene sequence you want to elicit immunity against. Its not a trivial vaccine in terms of a technical complexity that goes into manufacturing a vaccine like this. If you remember, the chinese were also developing an add know viral vaccine. Thats in Clinical Trial<\/a>s in canada, and the early data on that vaccine isnt very encouraging. A lot of people had antibodies to the viral vector itself and so they effectively neutralized the viral vector because it was base odd an common cold, the virus being used to deliver the gene sequence in this case its not clear how efficacious the russian vaccine is going to be and whether or not people have prior immunity to the adenovirus theyre using to deliver the coronavirus gene sequence. When you say you wouldnt take it, is that because youre worried about its safety or efficacy both at this point. Something thats only been tested in 100 patients, you wouldnt want to take that outside a Clinical Trial<\/a> where youre being closely monitored in a lot of these situations you might only get one shot at taking a vaccine in a season if you put a vaccine on the market thats not efficacious, its going to hard to revaccinate the population you want to make sure it works you also want to make sure its safe this isnt a trivial technological platform thai using. Its not a protein based vaccine where theyre injecting some segment, theyre using a viral vector to deliver that ep toep thats technically complex you can get a reaction to the viral vector itself. Dr. Gottlieb, its Brian Sullivan<\/a> they started the trials on this drug actually wak back in midj and by midjuly they said they hoped to have a working vaccine by midaugust, which is basically where we are so they have been working on this and testing it on humans for two months is that enough time to come to any conclusion i think in terms of their development right now, theyre a little bit behind where we are with the vaccines that weve in development. Our vaccines here in the u. S. Are in phase three Clinical Trial<\/a>s theyre getting dosed in thousands of patients as we speak. Theyve cleared phase one, phase two studies so theyve been tested in 100 and in some cases a couple hundred patients. Thats about where russia is right now. Theyve cleared the equivalent really of a phase one Clinical Trial<\/a> in terms of 100 to maybe as many as 300 patients. So it needs to be evaluated in a large scale Clinical Trial<\/a> what it means for them to give some kind of preliminary approval to start vaccinating people outside of a Clinical Trial<\/a> is unclear to me they might be trying to do this they talked about getting volunteers to take the vaccine outside of a clinical trail. That might be some kind of registry thai seyre setting up where theyre going to continue to follow these patients there might be a little bit of semantics going on in terms of how theyre treating this from a regulatory standpoint. Its not really fully approved theyre certainly not ahead of us, and we certainly wouldnt allow a vaccine to be used for mass distribution at this point based on the data we have in hand we dont know that the vaccines are safe and effective. If safety was no longer a question for the rack seevaccin trial in the u. S. And in europe, would they be worth taking it based on the data we have on how effective they are would they be Game Changing<\/a> in terms of delivering widespread immunity across a whole nation based on that part of the data that we have so far . The vaccines that we have in development here look encouraging. The challenge is that even if you believe that they were safe based on the data we have in hand and i dont think you can draw that conclusion just based on, you know, a couple of hundred patients you really need to put these in large scale trials where youre testing them on patients a broader, more diverse population, people who are more likely to experience side effects of a vaccine, people who are older. People who might have other health conditions. You dont have all the safety data you would want to have in hand the other question is if you allow mass distribution of a vaccine and it turns out that vaccine isnt effective, have you actually done something thats productive . Because youre not going to be able to revaccinate people right after that you might get only one shot at this over the course of a season theres also theoretical risks that cant be full elucidated in a small scale Clinical Trial<\/a> theres a theoretical concern that the vaccines themselves could actually potentuate your propensity to get coronavirus in certain situations we believe thats not going to be the case but you dont fully discharge that potential risk until you get into a large scale Clinical Trial<\/a> we have seen this phenomenon before particularly with the dengue vaccine doctor, thats my concern with it is there are already so many people who are who dont trust vaccines at this point if you had something that was out there and that either didnt work or wasnt safe, that it would be a huge disservice, it would make more people think that you couldnt have this, and i dont think it would just be a one season situation where youd be facing trouble with vaccines, i think you could be looking at decades or longer where people wouldnt trust vaccines, including vaccines we know work well is russia actually being a bad actor here by introducing something here before it goes through these testing phases i think thats right, becky we have a lot of challenges in this country with Vaccine Hesitancy<\/a> and people not getting vaccinated with the flu, only about 40 of americans go out and get the flu vaccine each year, and some years its lower than that. If we were to license a vaccine or make a vaccine available for coronavirus for mass distribution that wasnt effective or had some side effect associated with it. I think it would impinge more than peoples willingness to take the Coronavirus Vaccine<\/a> people need to have confidence in the regulatory process thats making these available its really not clear, the headline is not very clear with respect to what the russians are actually doing they talked about making it available for volunteers that doesnt sound like its being fully licensed for mass distribution in russia on the basis of maybe as few as 100 patients in a Clinical Trial<\/a> yeah, doctor, outside of that there was a comment i want to switch gears there was a common belief we needed to have 65, 70 of the country develop some kind of either the illness or enough exposure and viral load to create this idea of herd immunity with the t cell counts that we have seen in some people that have not shown any symptoms, do you believe that we could reach this concept of herd immunity with a far smaller percentage of the population actually being asymptomatic, maybe 25 or even 30 . In other words, could we be closer than maybe the headlines lead us to believe well, we could be closer, but its probably not because of this theory that there is a vast army of people out there who have t cell immunity that creates cross immunity to this particular crave that might be the case for some people there might be some prior exposure to similar coronaviruses and antibody immunity as well its really unclear whether this actually has cross reactivity and affords some level of protection youre probably not going to need to have 60 of the population to have effectively the equivalent of herd immunity. Some people as you suggest do have cross immunity. Some people just arent vulnerable to the virus because of behavior, because they do go out. Not everyones equally vulnerable what ends up happening with an epidemic like this is the people who get infected first are the people most vulnerable once they develop some immunity infecting that next person becomes much more difficult for the virus because that people is harder to find for the virus the rate of transfer starts to fall thats probably whats happening in the south as well when you look at states like florida where maybe upwards of 20 of people have been infec d infected, texas probably about 15 , arizona may be as high as 25 . The rate on transmission is probably starting to decline now for the virus to infect that next person is more difficult. Hey, dr. Gottlieb, we appreciate having you with us every day. But especially today because there are some Big Questions<\/a> about this breaking news thank you so much for your time. Thanks a lot. Thank you. All right, coming up, more on the fallout from the pandemic and lockdowns. New numbers out of Small Businesses<\/a> you got to hear them it is the heartbeat of america we bring you those right after the break. Right now take a look at some of the biggest premarket gainers in the s p 500. You got the travel companies the reopen stocks or the get back out and go do something trade if you will. Look at that, united airlines, norwegian cruise lines up. Dow futures up 262, vaccine possibly closer to herd immunity, maybe. Markets on pe acfor eight straight day gains were back right after this. Surprise we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. Im good at my condo. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. A lot goes through your mind. With fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations. Thats the clarity you get with fidelity wealth management. Good morning, mr. Sun. Good morning, blair. [ chuckles ] whoo. Im gonna grow big and strong. Yes, you are. Im gonna get this place all clean. Ill give you a hand. And im gonna put lisa on crutches wait, what . Said shes gonna need crutches. She fell pretty hard. You might want to clean that up, girl. Excuse us. When owning a Small Business<\/a> gets real, progressive helps protect what you built with customizable coverage. And im gonna eh, eh, eh. Donny, no. Oh. Small Business Owners<\/a> are in survival mode. Kate rogers joins us with more hi, kate. Hi, wolf, good morning, the National Federation<\/a> of independent business is showing a decline of 1. 8 points in july to 98. 8. This is after a big jump up we saw in june as states in the country began to reopen. The biggest declines were in those who expect the economy to improve. That fell 14 points as well as those who expect to sales to rise even with states reopening, the nfib says sales are often lower due to business restrictions, social distancing requirements and a still reduced willingness of consumers to go out and mingle with the general population thats something that cnbc has also seen in our own polling surprisingly, the quality of labor is back in the top spot as Business Owners<\/a> single biggest problem thats followed by taxes and government red tape and regulations. Finding good workers has not become easier for respondents. July also brought abround the en of enhanced Unemployment Benefits<\/a>, and whats coming out of these negotiations with regard to additional stimulus and new programs like ppp being renewed and potentially lower interest, longer term loans that may be available to them all of that likely weighing on optimism as well thank you so much for that. Special programming note by the way. Tomorrow the cnbc Small Business<\/a> playbook Virtual Summit<\/a> will gather the most trusted and inspirational voices many business, sheryl sandberg, kevin oleary and many others. The resources to survive todays crisis and a path forward to thrive tomorrow. Visit cn cnbcevents. Com smallbusinessplay book stock futures surging after russia said it approved a Covid Vaccine<\/a> and that one of Vladimir Putin<\/a>s daughters has received it more reaction straight ahead. The latest on the pandemic relief efforts in america. Well tell you whats next for the president s executive orders and stalled talks with lawmakers. As we head to break, a look at yesterdays s p 500 winners and losers as business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. You can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. Welcome back to squawk b box, everybody. If you are just waking up theres some big news breaking overnight. Something worth paying attention to russian president Vladimir Putin<\/a> saying the first russianproduced vaccine for covid19 has received Regulatory Approval<\/a> from the countrys Health Ministry<\/a>. Putin said one of his daughters received that vaccine already. He said doctors would begin receiving the vaccine later this month or early next month with the aim of being broadly available in january now, as you might anticipate, stock futures did tick a leg higher when the news broke around 4 30 a. M. Eastern time. The market was already up by 150 points now the dow futures are indicated up by 264. The nasdaq up by 54. We should put this in context. We spoke with the former head of the fda under President Trump<\/a>. He said he would not take this vaccine. That its only been tested on a few hundred people which really makes it more like a phase one vaccine candidate compared to what weve seen here in the United States<\/a>. A big grain of salt to take this with there has been a debate here in the United States<\/a> about whether the fda should set aside its requirements for phase one, two, three testing to get any of the vaccines immediately available at this point regulators say no, you need to go through those steps to make sure the vaccine is safe and second of all its effective. I also liked what he had to say about the nonvaccine route. It does appear that more americans have probably been exposed to at least a small viral load of this and that t cell responses in many people because of exposure to prior coronaviruses may be helping us get to that level of socalled herd immunity maybe quicker than some people think. At the impinge of this, Johns Hopkins<\/a> said you need about 70 of the population generally to be exposed to get to that level. What were seeing is you get a lot of people who say ive never been sick. As far as i know event been exposed but theyve got a t cell response their body is already fighting it this is nowhere near the fist coronavir coronavirus that many people of a certain age have been exposed to, has helped us achieve a level of strength we didnt know we had i was happy to hear him say that s. There have been some tests that have been done where theyre trying to weed out the people that might have Natural Immunity<\/a> to some of these things it could mess with the results of the testing there are some people who have potential unique immunity to it. Its probably because of what youve said, being exposed to oh coronaviruses. Were still so early in the research on all of this, theres a lot were learning, and honestly, the medical profession is getting much better at treating people, too theyre smarter about how theyre handling this in the hospitals and they know more about what works and what necessarily doesnt. And thats the most important thing. Case numbers are always going to go up. Every new up is our new record, the hospitalizations, the fatality s is what we care about. Outside of the virus, another huge issue is how we deal with the ongoing pandemic and lockdowns, especially in Small Business<\/a> which Many Industries<\/a> need more stimulus right now those talks are still at a standstill on capitol hill. Lets find exactly where we stand with those, ylan mui joining us with the latest from d. C. Brian, the press conference that President Trump<\/a> delivered last night was dramatic for a number of reasons. The president was called away from the podium by the secret Service Moments<\/a> after he began speaking we later learned trhere was a shooting about a block from the white house. It involved another secret service agent. The Briefing Room<\/a> was temporarily locked down. When President Trump<\/a> returned to the room, he picked up where he left off, and that was talking about the rally in the markets, which he said was a direct result of his own economic policies still, there have been a lot of questions around some of the president s recent executive orders, especially around Unemployment Insurance<\/a>, treasury secretary steven naumnuchin saih believed states could start paying out that extra 400 in benefits in the next week or two. Yesterday after a Video Conference<\/a> between mnuchin, the Vice President<\/a> , and the nations governors, the states put out this statement they said we are concerned about the significant administrative burdens and costs this latest action would place on the state th s. States have asked for 500 billion in direct relief, and that remains one of the stumbling blocks in these negotiations back over to you thank you very much a guest now on the stimulus talks and what to expect were joined by u. S. Public policy strategist at morgan stanley. Michael, thanks so much for joining us the key question so many have about these executive orders is whether theyll bring both sides back to the negotiating table and whether they make a full congressional deal more orless likely yeah, i think thats the right way to think about it. I do think it helps bring both sides back to the table. Basically the orders advertises a certain amount of actions that are going to benefit americans immediately. We dont really think theyll behave that way. You already mentioned the state governors concerned. With the Unemployment Insurance<\/a> youre basically asking states already cash strapped. By our estimate, there are 180 to 375 billion short on revenue to the end of next fiscal year to kick in money and on top of that set up a completely new program. I think its entirely possible, weeks, possibly months before this money could potentially get out and it would be smaller. You could say the same thing about the payroll tax cut. Its basically a shortterm loan to employees will employers want to extend that loan and call back a bunch of money at the end of the year. These benefits arent necessarily going to get out anytime soon once that realization sets in beyond the headline created by the executive orders, i think youll see Congress Come<\/a> together quickly and get back to the negotiating table. What chance do you put on a full deal and by when given that we just referenced how the president was talking about the stock market last night. Do you think that it might require another sort of pull back in the market or a disappointing months of jobs numbers to crystallize any deal . Yeah, i mean, its an interesting dynamic. With our discussions with clients, i think clients also mostly sort of confident in the idea that there will be a deal here at the end of the day that could be helping markets, and therefore, in theory could be delaying a deal a bit however, i dont really think thats whats ultimately going to push a deal over the line or not. Its going to be the feedback that lawmakers are getting from the governors in their states. The people in their states, the businesses in their states that need that aid. Id say that were still confident that youre going to get a deal over. Over what time frame, i do think some time has been added to the clock by these executive orders. Now you have both sides in their corner trying to see how this is going to play out, maybe talking to their constituents, looking at polls this probably went from a middle of august situation to it could be taking most of august, potentially could leak beyond labor day. The other big political issue everyones focused on in the marketplace is whether china tensions continue to escalate and if theres going to be retaliation from china what are you guys expecting and do you think the election could change the direction of travel on that particular issue, or do you think whoevers president is going to keep the pressure on china . Yeah, the shortterm, this august 15th meeting is an important touch point, and i think our anticipation is that it will be relatively quiet, i think kind of the sweet spot for both countries is to push each other on medium and longterm issues, which include a lot of nontariff actions. A lot of the things weve seen already with sanctions and export restrictions, but not to create a kind of shortterm acute economic stress situation by returning to tariffs. So thats how the phase one deal can probably remain kind of in a fragile piece relatively quiet zone the second part of your question, what happens after the election we get this question a lot would a President Biden<\/a> be different for this relationship . I think its fair to say that it could be in different in sort of stone and approach, but would you see tariffs come down quickly . I dont think so would you see a difference in the nontariff actions i dont think so i think at this point chinas skepticism is relatively bipartisan the administration wouldnt want to relieve the actions that have already been taken while they have so much more to negotiate for in a potential phase two agreement. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you very having me. On deck, will that ugly, etch empty former Department Store<\/a> at your local mall become an amazon fulfillment center, it certainly could. Mall owner Simon Property<\/a> group reportedly in talks with amazon to do just that. Futures up 250 on hopes for a vaccine and tax cuts tethba rhtk box is ckig afr is thats up from 51 in april and may and 69 in may and june. Simon says 91 of the tenants are back open for business that is a little bit of good news in what has been a terrible year otherwise for many retailers. 25 different companies, look at all of those names, have filed for chapter 11 so far this year leaving many others. Simon group wants to change that they want to turn that into distribution and fulfillment centers. Joining us is scott crow chief investment strategist at Center Square<\/a> Investment Management<\/a> scott, welcome do you believe the reports do you think soon coming to your local mall is not going to be a store, it is going to be effectively a warehouse . Absolutely think its true. The worlds blurring between physical space to sell and distribute goods and the internet which is amazon and other webbased sellers. So the model of the future is what we call omni channel, the ability to sell in both formats. It strikes me after simon has resisted this idea for many years, this is not new, we have seen in the past prior retail to warehouse conversions, theyve understood theyre better swimming with the tide and getting on board and today 1 3 of all goods travel through a distribution warehouse to the physical Retail Store Store<\/a> front. Thats moving 40 to 50 . If anything has been given a big boost in that direction by covid. And the best move, i would imagine, is that it solves two problems number one, solves the problem for the owner of a large, empty building which is ugly and may have cotenancy clauses and cause others to break their leases and malls tend to be close to one thing, people thats been the biggest challenge that amazon has is getting close to individuals you cant build a million square foot facility in somebodys neighborhood, but now you can be a couple of miles away from where they live. Youre right. It is a bit of a winwin for both simon and amazon. Simon solves a problem of vacancy. They avoid spending cap ex to get a new tenant they can do it marginally. These tenants like jcpenney and others were paying very, very low rent amazon has a problem thats the last mile of distribution thats very tough to resolve you need to set up in an infield area one of the things we know about malls is that they are located next to very, very Good Transportation<\/a> infrastructure and people, but particularly as it relates to road transportation, which is what you need to get those little brown packages on your doorstep. But heres the problem simon has let the fox in with the hens amazon is their biggest competitor have they just helped amazon take a market that may have been one or two day fulfillment to same day fulfillment by helping solve a. M. Ma stops problem, by solving their own problem, have they created another problem . Yeah, scott, fair enough, weve got to go, but ill leave you with this. If its a place you picked up packages, if its not just a distribution center, if we actually go and get them, again guess what, now were at the mall oh, by the way, im picking up a box. Maybe ill walk to the gap or the apple store. Thats true. Youre letting them in the hen house, then you want to poke around, not kill chickens. It brings energy back into the mall and i think thats the key thing because malls are becoming irrelevant. This brings them closer to relevancy. Scott crow, real pleasure to have you on. Big story there. See what happens at the local mall appreciate it buddy still to come on squawk box. Check out the three major indices since the start of the month. Well dig in to whats behind tech pauses. The s p looks for a new record of its own the dow the big outperformer a major interview you dont want to miss with Ginni Rometty<\/a> coming up at 8 15 a. M. Here on quk x. Sawbo im pro athlete stylist Calyann Barnett<\/a> and together with nicole and miles were gonna find the shoes that inspire the look at dicks sporting goods. For me, its all about the shoes. You start with the shoes and then you build your outfit up. For me, the shoe is definitely the biggest focal point. I mean, airmax 90s, cmon now. Look at that, look at that pattern. I had no idea how many shoes dicks had. Whether youre in the classroom or on camera, find the shoes that inspire the style. Day one starts here. Breaking news overnight. Russias Health Ministry<\/a> has approved a covid19 vaccine and Vladimir Putin<\/a> says one of his daughters received it. A live report from moscow is coming up. Stock futures jumping after that news. Now pointing to big gains at the open the s p is just a few points away from a new record will the news change the outlook for big tech and internet stocks . Many names in that sector surging on the stay at home trade. Well speak to an internet analyst mark mahaney as the second hour of squawk box begins right now good morning and welcome back to squawk box. Welcome to squawk box right here on cnbc what has become a very busy tuesday all of a sudden. By the way, im not joe. Im Brian Sullivan<\/a> thats not andrew, thats wilfred frost along with becky quick. Joe and andrew have the morning off. Somewhere they are together tanning. What an image yes, it is. And i just ruined my day. My eyes. Could 8 be enough. Seriously, i hadnt actually thought about it now i have well, youre welcome, wilf. I just bring joy to everybody. We may find out if eight is enough today because stock futures, they are surging right now. The major averages, they are up seven days in a row. Coming into today. By the way, the s p 500 is now less than 1 away from its february 2009 record high. Believe that driving the move and maybe shocking the world, Vladimir Putin<\/a> saying that russia has created what he calls a safe working Covid Vaccine<\/a>, that it has gotten Regulatory Approval<\/a> from that countrys Health Ministry<\/a> the Scientific Community<\/a> still trying to get more information on this. The details right now, they are pretty sketchy we are very pleased to be joined by nbcs matt bogner joining us with this developing story matt, a shock of the world right now. Reporter a little bit unexpected, yes. Russia has been hinting for the past several weeks that they were perhaps ready to approve a vaccine as early as this week, but no one officially was leaning into it. Today Vladimir Putin<\/a> led the news saying its here, its ready to go and my daughter is taking it. Theres a lot of questions still. Its only passed through phase 1 and 2 trials really officially not even 100 people have been injected with this vaccine though there are indications perhaps up to 1,000 already have there have been reports maybe members of the russian elite have been participating in trials all of this officially denied. I think the best way to think about whats happening here today is that russias essentially doing its phase 3 trials live. Were going to see in the first round of those who are vaccinated in the next several weeks as production begins it will be doctors these are people close at hand to keep an eye on. Perhaps in some ways this is a bit of a rhetorical exercise yeah, matt. I shouldnt say its come out of left field they talked about it in june, they were working on it, human trials they said in july. It may be ready by august. Certainly that apparently is where we are do we know more about the scale of these tests we had dr. Scott gottleib on hes like, we dont know how many people. Maybe a couple hundred only. Is there any information on how many people this may have been tested successfully on yeah. So an official control trials, were talking about several dozen. 70 to 100 people these were tests run by the gamelian institute in cohorts with the Defense Ministry<\/a> as well as the university here. These were just phase 1 and 2 trials, very low scale the big question is weve not seen any longterm studies of the vaccine and theyre essentially saying were going to have to do these longterm studies as we go and so theres really there really are a lot of questions, especially on that we even heard Vladimir Putin<\/a> say today its a twostage vaccine the second one appears to give you a fever. Vladimir putin said his daughter had a fever for a day, and this is something weve heard from other people who have taken the vaccine including the head of the Russian Direct Invest Fund<\/a> who has really emerged the forefront of promoting this saying he and his family suffered from this side effect but long term we still dont know very much about what this vaccine is going to do to you. Matt, i think just to clarify, because there are a lot of people waking up this morning and thinking, fantastic. Theres a vaccine thats been approved we should put this in context for everyone this is a situation where the candidate that they have doesnt sound like its anywhere advanced as the candidates we have here. I would argue some of the candidates here in the United States<\/a>, those vaccine candidates are further along its just that our regulatory structure here in the United States<\/a> wont approve anything like this until it goes through very extensive testing, phase 1, phase 2, phase 3 Clinical Trial<\/a>s to make sure its, a, safe and, b, effective. It sounds like the russians are circumventing that approving this anyway. I think they did a similar thing with the ebola vaccine they claimed they had an ebola vaccine and i dont believe there was ever much proof that the ebola vaccine worked. Reporter theres actually a relationship between the ebola vaccine and this vaccine the official word of how they got so far ahead theyre doing this phase 3 trial live, whereas, in the United States<\/a> and in the u. K. The oxford vaccine, for instance, is officially already in phase 3 trials so you could, indeed, argue that russia is in fact behind when you take a more stringent reg ulatory approach t t. Russia claims it can skip these corners because this vaccine is based not only on this ebola vaccine they had but also a middle east respiratory syndrome vaccine that worked on the same engineering principles. The big problem is none of this stuff has been released for peer review no independent scientists outside of these groups have had access to verify the claims. We dont know if the people who have claimed to have taken the vaccine have taken it. While its certainly hopeful news, theres so many questions still about it. Sorry to be pedantic but on your last point, it said the president said his daughter had taken it, past tense you said in your earlier report, she was going to take it do you know what the precise translation of what president putin said on that particular topic was . Apologies had taken it. Past tense. Thanks. Past tense. Much appreciate it. Reporter pleasure. What does this all mean for the markets . Well, they did move higher on this news in european trade. Had been a strong sense in europe mike santoli joins us with all of the latest and what to expect in the day ahead in the last few days, quite a few rotations. Quite sure, wilf, up side risk weve talked about this that its not allowed skeptics of this rally to get comfortable. There will be news that will provide excuse for the rally to stretch further. This is one year of the s p 500 etf getting the etf to have the premarket move rej 12erd not quite virtually at the february highs the one thing i was going to vaguely draw in here, this is obviously imprecise, thats roughly the 200 day average. Its barely budged the shot down was so fast, didnt have time to change the overall trend. This spread is over 10 above the 200 day average. Its actually not quite as far as it was in february but its pretty close that is simply to say that the market itself on an index basis is getting a little bit stretched. No matter what else is going on, no matter how big the streak is, no matter how we get to or clear the highs. You mentioned the rotation this is where the game is being played in the other relationships between the nasdaq 100, the acknowledged leader for a long period of time. The s p 500 and the equal weight s p 500 are the three ways i would look at it those are tiered nasdaq 100, very, very strong. In the middle is the s p and then you have the equal weight right here thats the average stock it is still not back to where it was in june and its still well below. You could look at this and say, wow, theres a lot more ground to make up for the typical stock now that weve hidden. Thats the bullish case we can have broadening out not a zero sum game out of the big stuff and into the smaller, more cyclical stuff. This is what were dealing with as we get to a point where we see the rally perhaps starts to culminate. Mike, stick around. Lets bring in a couple more voices to discuss the markets in more depth katheryn rooney is head of Global Research<\/a> and chief investment strategist and Brian Leavitt<\/a> is Global Market<\/a> strategist for north america at invesco. Very good morning to you both. Brian, ill come to you first. This recent rotation, weve seen attempts at it quite a few times. Not just in the last couple of months but the last couple of years. Do you think it lasts this time . Yeah, i think it lasts here were following a consistent pattern in a recovery. You would expect to see at some point the more economically sensitive parts of the market start to participate and youre starting to see some better signs with regards to cases. Theres obviously a massive policy response from the Federal Reserve<\/a>. Were likely to see, at least the market is expecting to see, more support on the fiscal side and then obviously theres some hopes around therapeutics or vaccines as youre talking about this morning if you believe that this recovery is feeling like fits and starts do we need to see a full stimulus deal in congress for that to continue well, i think the market is precipitated on that eventual y eventuality. If we dont get an additional fiscal stimulus, then i think it will paint ugly for the markets going forward. Lets face it, were at very close to alltime record highs and the main driver of that appreciation in the s p 500 has been stimuli, both fiscal and monetary. Mike, clearly hard to pinpoint exactly what markets are moving on this morning, whether it is that russian vaccine news, but interesting to see the ten year go back above 0. 6 this morning. Thats a relatively meaningful move i guess does paint some optimism towards the broader economy, whether its linked to a vaccine or not. Yeah, it definitely means a little bit of a retreat from that safety bid in bonds it also would support the idea of perhaps a more cyclical tone to the equity market because the extremely low yields it has been a backdrop for all of the Long Duration<\/a> thats the answer for why the nasdaq has been doing it a lot of treasury supplies it is in gear with this idea that we might have a phase where the cyclical stocks can do some catchup. Katheryn, if youre a u. S. Equity investor, dowell come the weaker dollar weve had of late . Well, certainly its a positive ill tell you the combination of variables we have is very fortuitous for the markets its driven mainly by Retail Investors<\/a> which we know a barons article came out saying 25 of recent market moves is brought on by Retail Investors<\/a> what i think is the bullish case here is the potential for a real vaccine, maybe not the russian one, but potential for a real vaccine in the course of the next six months. If thats the case, then we have that fundamental base which is that nation growth solidified. If that happens, this vshaped recovery that weve seen thus far really has legs. From there on, wilfred, what we need to see is retractment of the fiscal stimuli it makes the Lehman Brothers<\/a> reaction seem like Small Business<\/a> consumption is already growing exacerbated by a Federal Reserve<\/a> thats dramatically increasing its balance sheet. Brian, would you, therefore, similarly be very bullish with 20212022 . Yeah, i think were going to have a long cycle here its similar to how we came out of the 2008 financial crisis things didnt look good for a while. Its taken a while to repair the market doesnt care if things are good, they care if things are Getting Better<\/a> and so what you should expect over the next couple of years is things to get better at a gradual pace and given that its a gradual pace, were likely to see policy accommodate well into the future in a modest growth accommodative policy environment that should be very good for stocks and for credit. Similar to what we saw in the aftermath of the 08 Global Financial<\/a> crisis. Thank you all for joining us. Thank you still to come this morning the ceo of adaptive biotech. Efforts to sequence the human genome russia says theyve developed the first Coronavirus Vaccine<\/a>. We should put a big asterisk with that. They have not gone through any Regulatory Approval<\/a>s that the u. S. Has gone through. Its only been tested on level 1. Bear all of that in mind we have that interview next. Later, well Talk Internet<\/a> stocks and get Investment News<\/a> from mark mahaney. Squawk box will be right back. At leaf blowers. You should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. And you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. Make ice. Making ice. But youre not mad because you have e trade which isnt complicated. Their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. Dont get mad get e trade and start Trading Commission<\/a> free today. Dont get mad get e trade and start trading Simon Pagenaud<\/a> takes the lead at the indy 500 coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. Theyre off. In the kentucky derby. Rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. He scores stanley cup champions touchdown only mahomes. The big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. Wreaking news overnight. Shocking the world Vladimir Putin<\/a> says russia has a working Covid Vaccine<\/a> and it has gotten Regulatory Approval<\/a> from the countrys institute. Vladimir putin says his own daughter has received the vaccine and he hopes that russia will soon begin mass production. Dr. Scott gottleib on earlier in the show offered this big word of caution something thats only been tested in several hundred patients, thats effectively a phase one Clinical Trial<\/a> you wouldnt want to take that outside of a Clinical Trial<\/a> where youd be closely monitored. You could see stock futures up 255 they were up already before the news but they did take another leg higher effectively adding about 100 points when the news broke right around 4 30 a. M. Eastern time a lot of questions this is coming out of russia scientists, im sure, around the world trying to get more information on the drug trials, on the vaccine itself. More news right now the markets didnt even react. You can see the tick up at 3 30, 4 a. M. Joining us to discuss the news this morning and their efforts is chad robbins. Adaptive biotechnologys cofounder and ceo the stock gaining about 25 so far this year and adaptive recently partnering with Industry Leaders<\/a> including microsoft to decode the immune response to the coronavirus. So working certainly on Vaccine Development<\/a> and trials as well as drug trials chad, youre a perfect guest to have on in this news day what are your initial thoughts about this news from russia . Well, my initial thoughts on the news of russia is weve got to be extremely weary. In order to have an effective vaccine you have to determine safety and efficacy. Id like to see what the data is to show both of those things one of the things were seeing in determining efficacy, well talk about it more, is the antibody response is not enough. You have to look at the t cell response to the virus. Yeah. And outside of this vaccine which, again, has so many questions i should call it the alleged vaccine as well, chad, to your point. We talked to Scott Gottleib<\/a> about t cell responses and this idea of herd immunity. Outside of a vaccine with your trials that youre doing at adaptive and your partnership with microsoft, are you maybe confident that as a country perhaps more people have been exposed than we think, either to this or prior coronaviruses and maybe we are inching our way to Natural Immunity<\/a> faster than we think . I think that thats a possibility, but were really going to need the proper tools to be able to measure that and one of the things that weve done over the quarter is weve comprehensively mapped the t cell response to sars covid 2. So not only to the vaccine the part of the virus called the spike protein that all of the vaccines have targeted but 11 other parts of the virus and weve developed a new tool called immunot map Covid Vaccine<\/a> developers can integrate it into their trials to accurately and reproduce briiblp it and track it over time using a small blood sample. And thats important. Its not just the bodys initial reaction, its the bodys ability to continue that positive reaction to build the t cells because the coronavirus will come back or if they fadeaway so in those tests with your partners, are you free to share with us, chad, some of their results . I mean, how has that t cell response been to some of these antibody candidates . Well, actually, we did announce yesterday on earnings a very favorable comparison in a real world setting that said the t cell response had a higher sensitivity rate than an antibody response. And so thats an important new piece of data for sure. Chad, just to get into what weve heard from the russians this morning i brought this up with Scott Gottleib<\/a> and ill bring it up with you, too. My concern would be if something gets rushed out there that has not been tested for both safety and efficacy, that it raises all kinds of questions about vaccines in general and that that could be harmful to the broader push to try to get this under control do you have any thoughts on that first of all, hi, becky i do have some thoughts on that. In the United States<\/a> we have a very structured process to be able to evaluate safety and efficacy and were following that process so the good caution i would have is that we really stick to our guns and make sure that we have a safe and effective vaccine before launching it out to market because its incredibly important that we really stick to our protocols and process chad, we are going to leave it there adaptive biotechnologies congratulations on your success. Stocks up 25 . Results out last night we appreciate you rolling with the breaking news. Thank you. Have a great day. Thanks for having me back on the show appreciate it. When we come back, the struggles of getting schools up and running and what Virtual Learning<\/a> will look like. Were going to speak to university of arizona president Robert Robbins<\/a> about just that by the way, hes not just the University President<\/a> , hes also a cardio surgeon and some of his work at the nih. He has a very good feel for how to handle all of this. In the meantime, check out Airlines Stocks<\/a> this morning federal data showed air travel at the highest volume in nearly five months. This morning theyre up sharply once again american air liensding the way up 7. 7 . Squawk box will be right back. [ engines revving ] its amazing to see them in the wild like th shhh. For those who were born to ride, theres progressive. music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. Welcome back stock futures the bottom right of the screen, they are much higher indicating an open of 230 points on the up side for the dow industrial average s p 500 and nasdaq rising as well watch the s p 500 futures. Ill tell you why. Were just about 25 points below the february record high on the s p 500. The nasdaq hit a record high, about 32 of them this year thats old news. The s p were about 25 points below that 18 right now we wouldnt hit a record if we gained as much as futures are suggesting add another 7 to that and youve got yourself, wilf, a new record high despite millions of unemployed i guess the stimulus up and out. European stocks up and the ten year back above a yield of 0. 6 this morning squawk box, the reopening of the nations colleges and schools. Well speak to the president of the university of arizona next then microsoft, twitter, facebook and many other names in the big tech space continue to have a great performance so far this year. Well discuss next with analyst mark mahaney futures at this hour, as we just showed you, up 240 points on the dow. s easy to get lost in the economic uncertainty. The volatility. The ambiguity. This moment calls for more. And Northern Trust<\/a> delivers more. With specialized expertise. Proven strategies rooted in data and analytics. And insights borne from over 130 years of successfully navigating economic turbulence. Giving you new clarity. Inspiring confidence. And helping you uncover new paths forward. Northern trust. Wealth management. A lot goes through your mind. With fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations. Thats the clarity you get with fidelity wealth management. And tailored recommendations. I keep working my way back to you, babe with a happiness that died i let it get away servicenow. The smarter way to workflow. Welcome back, everybody. We have been talking all morning about these comments from russian president Vladimir Putin<\/a> this morning that his country has developed a Covid Vaccine<\/a>. In fact, the market has been trading higher on this you saw an extra hundred points or so on the dow futures based on the idea that russia has approved the vaccine to be clear, no data has been published by researchers its only been injected into a few hundred people so far. A phase 3 trial is due to begin later this month thats very different than the process that takes place here in the United States<\/a>. There are many vaccine candidates here in the United States<\/a> that have already gone through much tougher testing on all of this and looked much more viable dr. Scott gottleib joining us earlier this morning offering some words of caution on this and he just tweeted this out russia was reported to be behind disinformation campaigns to sew doubts and they approved phase 1 data it may be another effort to stoke doubts or goad u. S. Into forcing early action on our vaccines they have warned against and cautioned against saying theres a reason we have such stringent hurdles and we should feel very safe with any of our vaccines as a result wilf clearly a similar tone. Perhaps a more sturdy tone even slightly than the interview earlier. Definitely suggesting to us early on in that tweet not to extrapolate from the headlines that this means well have a widely available and effective vaccine to use in the u. S. Any time immediately soon. Well have to wait and see. Yeah, but, agreed, the better news i got from that was the idea that the doctor sort of admitted, maybe we dont need 60 or 70 exposure to achieve this concept of herd immunity, maybe we can do it with less because, a, some people are just naturally resistant. Were still trying to figure out why. Or, b, weve all been exposed to other coronaviruses in our life and maybe those exposures, while certainly not covid19 or as severe, have helped us achieve maybe a stronger t cell response than we think. I mean, again, im taking the positive tact here because the market clearly is. Norwegian cruise lines and m American Airlines<\/a>, theyre acting like everybody will pop back on a plane. 830,000 people went through their checkpoints. Thats, by the way, down 70 from a year ago but still the first time above 800,000 since march 17th i only know that because it was supposed to be the rbi this morning but we didnt do it because we had the russian news. There you go i just did it. I would look at this not as anything slamming the potential for vaccines in the you states we have very vigorous candidates and very likely well get something out of some of those candidates i think this is more just take with a huge grain of salt the idea that russia says its there first and approved the first vaccine. Thats not the case if you dig into any sort of how these studies were done. Id have much more faith in vaccines being produced in the United States<\/a> and western countries. Market still higher up 2. 6 . Up 1. 6 before that russian news this morning were up about 0. 75 on the dow futures this morning a new study out this morning is the first in the nation to estimate the number of students who will be learning virtually this fall. Steve liesman has an exclusive on that story for us steve . Wilf, thanks very much. Yes, this new study by the online startup berbio finds more than half of the students in the u. S. Will be studying virtually when going back to school or have already gone back to school 52 will be doing Virtual Learning<\/a> only accord to go this study by burbio. They aggregate School Calendars<\/a> and put them online. 25 in person only and 19 some form of a hybrid 4 remain undecided. Im surprised thats not higher. Looking at a map of the country, you can see certain obvious trends the state in the out west, the in person index is very low there. More virtual there look at the northeast, theyre coming back including the big decision by new york governor mario cuomo to allow schools to open in the state and texas does the best job look at the texas panhandle. Those are going to be in person only largely rural. Southern texas, rural area where theyve had more of an outbreak from san antonio on south. That will be virtual Harris County<\/a> is a great example of all of the differences that were seeing across the country. The city itself of houston will be virtual but some of the School Districts<\/a> in that county of Harris County<\/a> are going to be in person. So decisions, wrenching decisions being made district by district and, indeed, school by school but the trend done by burbio is that its more towards Online Learning<\/a> the cofounder julie rose writing we have seen a dramatic shift to online only learning in the past three weeks many districts have thresholds for covid19 levels that could result in converting back to remote learning. We have decisions to make. Those decisions have been reversed and gone the other way. There may be other decisions made these are not easy decisions there is no right decision as you can see from the map, there is no National Decision<\/a> being made its a very, very local decision steve, i think the bottom line probably is a liability question schools get nervous about what theyll be blamed for, what theyll be held responsible for. I think thats right. There are competing interests. Parents care about their safety. Also care about themselves theres teachers there are Community Aspects<\/a> to this which is weve talked about this before when we first introduced the burbio data i dont think we can say the country is open. Until the libraries and schools are open thats why were following this so carefully its a big cultural part of the story and a major part of the economic story going on with the pandemic the decisions from this map are going to have implications from retailers trying to do back to school clothing. A lot of kids, more than half of them arent going to need the back to school clothing. There are a lot of computers being bought and sold as a result of this Online Learning<\/a> thats going on. Steve, thank you. Well continue to watch what youre following brian, do you have a question . His lips are moving but his mike is cut off yeah. Which all of america hopes is always the case, by the way. Steve, very quickly. Has anybody donnie sort of studies on the loss and im not making an argument for going back to school im talking about the pure economic side. Say half the kids succeed at remote learning, the other half vanish, disappear, dont tune in to the zoom. That has happened. The longterm Economic Impact<\/a> of this, this is going to be a decades long story yeah, its a great question, brian. Economics has this idea, which is sort of depressing but its true, you cant get back a lost year of your life. Thats why one of the objectives for federal monitoring policy, try to keep the Unemployment Rate<\/a> down as much as possible, if you lose that year of employment, you dont get it back if you lose that year of wages, you dont get it back. Were used to looking at the stock market, it goes down, were back to where we were. Economists look over that period of time you were down, you were down forever for that period of time thats an issue. Kids losing the school and being able to get it back is a big issue and the impact of that but, brian, of course, safety and health would appear to trump that consideration in many cases. Steve, thank you very much. Steve liesman. For more on getting back to school, we are joined by Robert Robbins<\/a>. President robbins, thank you very much for being here today i just want people to know you are not only the University President<\/a> but you are also a cardiosurgeon. Youve worked at the nih and spent a lot of time in texas running the biggest Medical Center<\/a> there so you know what you are bringing to this very complicated set of questions and issues thank you for being with us, sir. Thank you for having me this morning. Lets talk about back to school what are the biggest risks youre facing . How are you doing this what are your plans for getting kids back on campus . The biggest risk is that there will be transmission of the virus once we bring students, faculty and staff back to campus. Im happy to report though yesterday our numbers in arizona are going down we had the lowest transmissibility in the country of any state in our great country. 0. 81 r naught value yesterday. The number of cases rolling seven day average has been going down dramatically. Two weeks from yesterday we start classes at the university of arizona on august 24th. Were very excited about that, but were also very cautious it wont look like it did before mid march when were on spring break and we asked people not to come back to campus. So my biggest challenge is we know there are going to be cases when the students come back, but my biggest challenge will be to try to minimize the number of cases, try to identify those cases that are positive. The sim tow ma particulars are fairly easy. People have symptoms, they go, they get tested, but were doing an extensive testing, tracing, treating program where were trying to identify those asymptomatic people, get them out of the general population and get them isolated so that we can keep the transmissibility low. How do you do that . How often are you testing people how are you choosing who to test if youre looking for asymptomatic people as well . Were testing everyone whos made the decision to come back, and were excited about so many of our students wanting to come back to tucson and continue their life as you speak in the earlier segment and moving on and learning and working towards their degree so they can go out and get a job and get into the marketplace. So we think that anybody whos going to live on our campus, were requiring them to be tested we tested 600 students yesterday. We had one positive out of 600 which is lower than i thought. I thought it was going to be between 3 and 5 positivity, but we have to wait. Weve got about 6,000 students coming to our dorms. Then we are offering testing and strongly encouraging every student, every faculty, every staff were providing free testing for everyone and those are the students we were testing yesterday. Those who are going to live off campus and not being in our dorms. I just want to point out, weve had over 7,000 people, students, faculty, staff coming to our campus, doing research labs. With the numbers going down in arizona. With people following the washing of hands, covering their face and physically distancing, i think that combined with our testing, tracing and treating modalities, weve got a chance but people have to follow the rules. Thats great news that you havent had any issues with the 7,000 kids who have been on campus i think were all watching whats happening with college sports, with College Football<\/a> in particular right now and the number of case that is have been picked up there, the controversy about whether thats safer than what the kids would be doing at home obviously youre going to be keeping an eye on the kids while theyre on your campus what happens when they go out, maybe to the bars, maybe out on town, maybe to fraternity parties or other places . Thats where i would anticipate thats where the spread would be more difficult you cant control what goes on outside of the classroom absolutely. Thats our biggest concern the governor has done a great job by getting our case numbers down people in society. The governor can only do so much with rules i think not having bars open, closing gyms certainly for our athletes, weve had 100 Football Players<\/a> return to campus weve had a few positives once theyve come back but none since theyve come back. We thought it was safer to have them in our facilities theyre not doing any contact practice or anything like that, but they are working out, trying to stay ready in case there were a season, they could be in shape. We think having them back on campus in a bubble and not having to go out to their Community Gym<\/a> in their communities all across the country is safer and i think that by having them follow the rules, and im so proud of them, we are testing them frequently with three different tests they are model students. Theyll be a big influence ive seen other universities where star players have said, please, if you want to see us play, you know, in the fall, i think the last one i saw was unc chapel hill, if you want to come to the dean dome, follow the rules. If you dont, we cant have school, we cant have games. President robbins, were about out of time but very quickly, you said you anticipated seeing 3 to 5 of the students tested coming back positive what would be the level that would cause you to say, we have to shut this down . We cant have people on campus or in classrooms i think thats always the big story. How much of an outbreak . How bad would it have to get for us to shut it down the short answer is, if we cant handle it in the system, if we dont have enough isolation beds, if the local hospitals which we follow very carefully every day dont have beds, dont have icu beds, then we would know that its time to send everybody home the people who have chosen to come back too late. Yeah. Its not too late if we watch these numbers prospectively, and we have a team of medical experts, Public Health<\/a> experts who are advising me and well be watching every day and the hope is we will see cases starting to trend and we will stop inperson activities and go into lockdown. And i think youre going to see that come up and down over the course of this year. President robbins, i want to thank you for your time today and want to wish you the best of luck in the start of the school week coming up in two weeks. Thank you so much as we say, bear down and mask up. Agreed. Thank you very much, president robbins. Thank you. Coming up, were going to talk tech and the stay at home trade for mark mahaney Ginni Rometty<\/a> will join us and help people find work and employment in the new york metropolitan communities w in dn. Up, gold is one of the were back right after this. Peo. And their financial wellbeing. Its evident in good times, with decisions focused on the longterm. And crucial when circumstances become difficult. That continued emphasis on people our advisors, associates, clients and communities gives us purpose, strength and a way forward. Today. And always. Pampers the 1 pediatrician recommended brand, helps keep baby skin dry healthy so every touch is as comforting as the first pampers. The 1 pediatrician recommended brand a programming note tomorrow join the cnbc Small Business<\/a> playbook Virtual Summit<\/a> as we provide Small Business<\/a> owners resources to survive todays crisis and a path forward to thrive. Well hear from neil bradley, u. S. Chamber of commerce and Maria Contreras<\/a> sweet, the former head of the u. S. Small Business Administration<\/a> and facebooks Sharyl Sandberg<\/a> and many more. Go to cn cnbcevents. Com smallbusinessplay book well talk to mark mahaney when we return. I keep working my way back to you, babe with a happiness that died i let it get away servicenow. The smarter way to workflow. Puts its customers a wiin charge . Rier well, the good news gets shared. And it gets rated 1 for customer satisfaction. But dont just take our word for it. Take theirs. Its your wireless. Your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile<\/a>. Call, click or visit a store today. High flying tech stocks taking a breather. The nasdaq has been up gaining 22 . Mark mahaney joins us now. Mark, thanks so much for joining us good to see you. I wanted to start, if i may, on the news that amazon might be considering buying former stores from simon Retail Property<\/a> group. Do you think thats a smart move for them well, lets see the ability to expand their physical footprint this is something thats a decade long move by amazon the whole foods deacquisition was part of it amazon is trying to fix its costs. What i mean by that is theyre trying to vertically integrate into further distribution fulfillment centers. If they can find inexpensive real estate thats well positioned, i. E. , near consumer centers, some of these malls have been, seems like a smart move to me i dont know about the exact pricing. Yes, theres an opportunity for them to continue to expand the distribution capability, seems like thats part of the strategy. Would it strangely suggest that the whole Foods Acquisition<\/a> was unnecessary and over priced, that they can buy things that could be used as Distribution Centers<\/a> at a much cheaper price than a profitable retailer as it was for whole foods . Thats a i love that question, wilfred. You may well be right. I dont think the whole Foods Acquisition<\/a> has been proven. I havent seen it. We might just have lost mark there. Well see if we can get mark back in the meantime, the last couple of days weve seen a rotation out of those tech stocks the nasdaq two days in a row, quite significant underperformance of course, havent had much more than two days of rotation out of those tech stocks. Mark can join us again mark, you were saying whole foods hasnt been proven yet no, it hasnt i dont know how long thats going to take. Thats a fiveyear journey for amazon to prove the value of whole foods. We havent seen a lot of synergies come out of that the big win for amazon is getting further into the category that theyve been only marginally involved. Weve had this major event, which is covid which has caused this dramatic two or threeyear acceleration in Online Grocery<\/a> shopping whether amazon can come out of this proving whole foods, thats the question. Mark, its Brian Sullivan<\/a> obviously a lot of talk this morning about the alleged russian vaccine. Who knows if it is, if it works for testing, whatever. At some point well get through this, get a vaccine, just whatever how does that alter your calculus when you look at these companies . Are we getting work from home fatigue . Are we getting zoom fatigue . Do you think it will change it how many of these changes that weve had to deal with do you think are permanent . Oh, i think weve gone through permanent changes. You go four or five months into something where weve changed the way we work and live, that will lead to a permanent change in Consumer Behavior<\/a> if i think about the stocks, for good or bad, weve had remarkable winners from the covid crisis online retailers, amazons, the i think some of the web presence companies, that would be shopify and home entertainment, thats been netflix. Monster stocks to date were looking you err to date. Recovery stocks, vaccine stocks. The ones i like are the ones that have lagged year to date but i think are Good Business<\/a> models that are starting to recover maybe more slowly than i thought two or three years ago but are starting to recover. Those are the ubers, lyfts, travel names like booking. Com and advertising names like facebook our top three stocks are uber, facebook and booking the advertising names work negatively impacted. Weve started to see them recover. Interesting as this recovery play hopefully unfolds. Mark, as you look at your stocks, do you want any one of them in particular to buy tiktok and at what price . That stock is a very good asset. Weve tracked it for a year. Were seeing dramatic adoption of it. Theyve had a wonderful formula, a mobile first algorithmically driven, highly entertaining and addictive service. What it indicates to me is a failure of innovation, Companies Like<\/a> youtube this should have been youtubes ability. Congratulations to tiktok. Now facebook with instagram reels has something thats very compelling if you are forced away from tiktok, i think you will very quickly amp up on reels. I think reels is a pretty good product out of the gate. How long does the lack of an acquisition have to persist . Thats a good question. I think its very unlikely reels takes all of the market share. You would have to have an outright ban of tiktok you shut down tiktok, reels with the history of the internet, youd need three months for reels to overtake tiktok assuming a straight out flat ban. Quickly, final question the decision last night in california for uber and lyft, was that expected . Priced in already . That was expected i think thats largely priced in looks like weve lost mark again but you heard his conclusion there it was expected and largely priced in. If theres any more detail, well make sure to bring it to you later. Mark mahaney of rbc. Wilf, thank you very much. Coming up on squawk box, former chief of staff to president obama bill daily will join us. Well talk about the stimulus stalemate and what the president might do to boost the economy. Plus, are boeing shares expected to go up . Dont they still have a big 737 max problem to deal with outside of the pandemic . Stock futures up 251 on the dow. Could we hit a new record high for the s p 500 today . Were getting close. Were ba rhtft ts. Ckig aerhi breaking news. Russia claims it has a working Coronavirus Vaccine<\/a> and futures are up 250 there is no published data former fda commissioner dr. Scott gottleib says the news might be described to make the u. S. Move faster than it should on its own. Meantime, congress with a stalemate on the next virus relief bill but the president may have moved on already. Taking executive action himself. He says he is now looking at new tax cuts thats also helping the markets. More than 20 of americas most powerful ceos stepping up to transform work for underserved communities in and around new york. Ibm former chair woman Ginni Rometty<\/a> will join us for a very special interview. Final hour of squawk box begins right now. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to squawk box here on cnbc im becky quick along with wilfred frost and Brian Sullivan<\/a> both joe and andrew are out today. Weve been talking about this unproven sunbathing. Whats that sunbathing to get back to those images. We have been talking about those unproven russian claims of a vaccine. We are looking right now at dow futures up by 264 points s p futures up by 16 the nasdaq had been 234 positive territory. Its now down by 5 points. The s p is looking at gains that would take us very close to the record level that was set back on february 19th s p needs to be up by 25. 5 points to hit that were just about 9 points shy of that right now where the futures stand. Vaccine hopes helping to push what weve been calling reopening stocks higher. Those are the stocks from businesses like the airlines, the hotels and the cruise lines that would see an immediate benefit from people getting back to normal and not having to worry as much about catching the coronavirus. If there were a working vaccine, that would certainly be the case we should point out with russia, this is something theyve done with only about 100 people or so who have been tested at this point. There are vaccines here in the United States<\/a> that are much bigger in terms of where we stand in the testing process. President putins daughter supposedly, of course, one of the people who has taken the vaccine so far, but lets get more about what we can make of these claims of a russian vaccine. President Vladimir Putin<\/a> saying one of his daughters, as i just mentioned, had taken it. The vaccine underwent tests and data is published by researchers. Its only been injected into a few dozen People Safety<\/a> of the vaccine remain unclear. With us earlier in the show, dr. Scott gottleib passed out on the vaccine. I wouldnt take it. Certainly not outside a Clinical Trial<\/a> right now. It appears that its only been tested in several hundred patients at most joins us now with what we do know about the supposed russian vac seen meg, can we have anymore optimism than dr. Gottleib failed to have there reporter i dont think so, wilf from what we can glean about the available information and data behind this vaccine, it is no further ahead, as becky just detailed, than many of the vaccines in development here in the United States<\/a>. I mean, to say for russia to say that it has won the vaccine race by approving this vaccine now, its because its moved the finish line to halfway through the race we have vaccines in testing that have more data than weve seen on this russian vaccine. So essentially what putin said this morning was that it looks effective enough and shows an immune response. This has been what vaccine experts have been concerned about, that we could sort of jump the gun on giving emergency use authorization to vaccines before we know whether they actually protect people against infection. You know, there are things called biomarkers. The levels of antibodies generated by these vaccines that people are looking at to see if they could suggest that they would be protected but this is a brandnew virus and we just dont know yet the level of immunogenicity that is needed. So what experts are cautioning about these russian claims is that its just not known if this vaccine will be protected and also its not known how safe it is when you give it to lots of people you could see effects that you dont see in smaller trials now the company sorry, the country says that this is technology that they have developed for other diseases based on using two other viruses called add den know viruses to deliver the genetic material to the coronavirus. This is not an unknown technology other countries are using adenoviruses russia is combining two of them. There are just a lot of question marks here, and to think that this means theres been some breakthrough, there hasnt no Scientific Data<\/a> has been presented here its just the country saying, were ready to approve it based on less data than other countries. Guys yeah. Meg, i think thats really important to point out russia may want to claim that its got the first approved one, but its because they lowered their standards and, again, i would put a lot more faith in what you hear from the results coming out of some of those vaccines here in the United States<\/a> and some of the other western countries as well. Reporter yeah. We are depending on large trials of 30,000 participants each. They say you have to test it broadly to feel that it is safe and to know that its protected. Those are the things we need in vaccines nobody wants to take a vaccine that wont work or could potentially be harmful this is very important that we know these things. Science matters meg, thank you reporter thanks. In the meantime, the stimulus stalemate is being watched. They remain far apart even after the Unemployment Benefits<\/a> expired and even though they desperately need another package. They attempted to get relief flowing by going around congress with a series of executive orders last night President Trump<\/a> said he is considering even more measures to try and help shore up the economy were looking at also considering a Capital Gains<\/a> tax cut which would create a lot more jobs. So were looking very seriously at the Capital Gains<\/a> tax cut and also at an income tax cut for middle income families were looking at expanding the tax cuts that weve already done joining us now to talk about getting the next stimulus deal done in d. C. Is bill daily former chief of staff to president obama. He is currently a vice chairman at wells fargo bill, its great to see you. Thank you for joining us this morning. Thanks, becky, for having me. What do you think about where we stand right now first of all, are these executive orders legal will they be challenged . Just in terms of getting the two sides together, are we further apart or closer together i think the executive orders, and youve seen the confusion even around the effectiveness that they may have from the ones he announced on saturday so talking about tax cuts that are really for congress to do. I think the pressure, weve got 84 days to election. Democrats seem to be very confident about maintaining the house. Republicans have concern about the senate theres got to be a deal done. All parties believe that, both because of the pain and for raw politics i think the president with all of these actions around the executive order are very weak in terms of effectiveness in policy for the next 84 days the president needs to have a chance to have checks sent to the American People<\/a> again with his name on them like happened in the spring, and that will give people some confidence and politically will probably be helpful to him so i think theres enormous pressure to get something done i think secretary mnuchin telegraphed that the other day. What youre talking about was the 1200 that was september out to americans making under a certain amount of money that went to the majority of the country. That cant be done by executive action or executive order. No. It has will it be part of some i absolutely believe it will be part will that be something that will be sorry, becky. Thats why you think both sides will come together it seems like in the last go ahead, sir sorry. I think that and other reasons. Youve got a lot of relief thats needed in Different Industries<\/a> we talked about it over the last weeks and months i think there is a pressure building something has to happen both from an economic point of view and that will come together in some resolution in my opinion over the next number of weeks. Brian sullivan. Do you see any chance that in the next ten years middle class tax rates cannot not go up they have to go up to pay this bill, do they not . I dont think theres any question at some point were going to have to pay the piper, as they say. Weve been kicking this deficit and the issues some people believe inflation and Interest Rates<\/a> will stay low. Brian, your tenyear window, its hard to imagine in that period there wont have to be some increased revenue in tax increases on a very large chunk from the American People<\/a> in order to replenish what has been lost and get a stimulus going. The government and congress didnt come together in the spring for trillions of relieve. When they did that in the spring, we were all optimistic this will end at some point relatively soon. It looks like this is going to be a longterm situation the political situation has a hard time dealing with longterm problems they can deal with the short term fairly successfully but long term it has a very difficult way of getting to that resolution okay. So the followup, bill we know the taxes to your point then probably will need to go up and pay for this income tax hikes are hard to sell politically lets be clear the folks that are in charge now wont be in charge in ten years. Theyre in their 60s and 70s do you foresee a National Sales<\/a> tax like europe as a way to get this bill paid brian, for many years they have kicked that around as a real solution to our problems. It doesnt seem to ever get real traction at some point when you look at the different options, i think some version of that is should be seriously considered now how do we seriously consider policies in the way were so divided in our politics, but i think it has to be on the table because i think over time based upon the difficulty were going through and the need for some chan change, i absolutely believe sales taxes should be on the table. As you point out, a tenyear period if we cant come to some solution of our longterm fiscal issues, at some point especially in that period, then the future is not very bright for a lot of our grandkids and their kids. Bill, i wanted to pivot and ask you a little bit about wells fargo if i may i guess the main question which falls specifically into what youre leading the charge for internally is how unfair the asset cap has been on wells fargo. How damaging has it been how fair has it been during the crisis which has requires you to do something and, therefore, increase your assets despite having this in place. Its been fair to the extent based upon the action of previous leaders at wells fargo and the need for reform in wells and the regulators have been very clear as to what they want from us and charlie sharp and his Leadership Team<\/a> that hes brought in is addressing the issues and moving forward. But its a reality that were living with. They did give us a break during the ppp program, and that was helpful. Moving forward, hes doing what he needs to do to get wells fargo in shape the cap is what it is and were addressing what the regulators have required of under the circumstances in an required of us and we will be very successful over time with or without the assets. Is this a removal of 2020 event . Oh, i doubt that. I think were on a schedule. Its up to the fed really. Theyll take it off when they think were in the shape that we need to be in, and i think thats appropriate charlie has said this repeatedly and weve got to get our act together and it laid out what were about to do. Bill, what can you tell us about how the economys fairing right now from the perspective of wells fargo obviously they have deep relationships with banks and with people and Companies Across<\/a> the country. What do you see right now . Well, i think what most of your guests see, that is a very challenging period and the uncertainty of you talked a lot about this russian vaccine i think your skepticism is a proip ra pope rate and there is a skepticism about where we are going to be in three, four, five months the market gets excited as you know better than i about news like this. Thats not real success. When you talk to real estate people and retail people, their concern is real. Obviously it will go down when youre a smaller business. We have a Program Going<\/a> as a result of the charlies decision to take all of our ppp fees, which are 400 million, to get to Small Businesses<\/a> and help them recover from this dilemma and the needs seem to be not only greater than one would imagine but will be longer term. Again, as we get back to the government having a hard time with the longterm economic dislocation, businesses have it even more so so were trying to do all we can to create some relief, but i think most people see this as a much longer period than some of the people who see news like from russia today on vaccines and think were right around the corner from getting this thing under control medically and getting our economy back i dont think thats the case. Bill, want to thank you very much for being with us today. Thank you have a good day. Thank you very much. Thank you you, too all right. Coming up, a special interview with ibm executive chairman Ginni Rometty<\/a>. She will join us with an ambitious new project. Getting them prepped for jobs of the future its an important one. You wont want to miss it. Lets check out shares of uber and lyft those companies were ordered by a california judge to classify drivers in that state as employees which would entitle them to the state of california. Both uber and lyft we are seeing dow futures up nearly 300 points. Gh sain on pace for maybe a eithtrght day of gains and were back right after this. You say the customers make their own rules. Lets talk data. Only Xfinity Mobile<\/a> lets you switch up your wireless data whenever. I accept 5g, everybodys talking about it. How do i get it . Everyone gets 5g with our new data options at no extra cost. Thats good. Next item corner offices for everyone. Just have to make more corners in this building. Chad. Your wireless. Your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile<\/a>. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get 400 off when you preorder the new Samsung Galaxy<\/a> note20 ultra 5g. Back to squawk box. Futures pointing to higher half a percent higher for the s p 500. The nasdaq was pointing to about half a percent of gains a couple of hours ago but has slipped quite considerably as you can see is just about in the red the dow continues to lead up about 290 points or more like 3 4 of 1 that relates to the european indices up 2. 5 this morning they added a percent or so to 1. 5 of gains after news on the russian virus on the russian vaccine that we got earlier. Oil prices up 2 gold slipping 2. 4 this morning. Down considerably given recent gains and the 10year at 0. 61 moving higher. First time weve seen above 0. 5 something in a long time in the meantime, the 27 largest employers in the new york area are this morning launching a coalition to prepare and build Career Pathways<\/a> for new yorkers in diverse and under served communities. Members of the new york jobs ceo council include j. P. Morgan chase, mount sinai, google and ibm. Joining us is Ginni Rometty<\/a> and the councils executive director gayle mellow welcome to both of you good to see you this morning good morning. Thank you gayle, this is a pretty ambitious take it looks like 100,000 jobs youre looking to create over the next ten years how did this come about . Where what were the origins of the idea . The origins of the idea were sort of moving around for quite a while, almost a year ago, when i think Companies Began<\/a> to really realize that the issues of getting the right talent into their companies and making sure that that was a Diverse Talent<\/a> has really come to the forefront. And as they came together, i think there was theres some leading companies. Ibm is one of them really it was the understanding that particularly in new york city that coming together as a partnership would be able to scale something that really had an impact in a longterm way on new york city and on the viability and strength of the companies that are part of the coalition. Ginni, ibm has been in new york for over 100 years. Its been based in new york. How do you come at this . Whats your hope well, becky, as you know, this is a topic that we have focused on a long time i think ive been on the show many times and this has all been about making this digital era an inclusive era and there are large, under served parts of the community that are not part of this economic equation so what this is in my mind really all about very clearly is Economic Opportunity<\/a> it is the only way to solve things like Racial Justice<\/a> or equality so this is, in my mind, one way that the private sector can come together and at this scale it really begins to be a movement for Economic Opportunity<\/a> and our background, as you know, on this started with many efforts like ptek which involved community and other companies on this list, which has been a way to have sixyear high schools that have 150,000 students coming through them. That will contribute to this effort which is 100,000 employees over ten years across the five boroughs of new york city ginni, i know at ibm you focused on this for a long time. You call them new collar jobs and what is that can you give a couple examples of where you would put someone and place them in the organization yes weve come up with a name new collar because we wanted to come up with a positive way to describe a new pathway into all of our companies that did not necessarily require a fouryear degree to get started. In fact, that is how we can bring and begin to bring many of these people into our companies. For example, cyber specialists, Software Engineers<\/a> cloud specialists. I met a lady this week, emmy banks, heres an example she was in tteaching third and fourth grade for 17 years as a fiber specialist youre a young person coming out of high school with a community college. You are becoming baristas, nurses, becoming any one of those tech professions becky, this applies to all the companies. It isnt just tech jobs. Gail can talk about were going to focus on health care. Theres a health care need in this city, Business Services<\/a> need in new york city. Gail, how do you find the people who can be placed in these jobs what have you learned so far how do you ramp that up . The amazing thing, i think, is the partnerships. That it is both the businesses and the Public Education<\/a> system in new york city, both the city and university of new york and new York Department<\/a> of education that are coming together to educate and to frame to make sure that the 21st century skills are a normal part of a students interaction with all of their educational experiences. Finding the people is not hard there are almost 200,000 people who go to the City University<\/a> of new york what has been missing is this link, this link between the business and the Education System<\/a> and what we hope to do is make that system less dysfunctional, lis fragmented and really smooth a path, not just so that people whose parents are professionals but for some of the kids that i have seen at community college, individuals who have never been in an office building. Students who had never actually been in manhattan and theyve lived in the queens or the bronx. Part of it is reaching out and making sure theres a smooth path and theyre effective and connecting over a scale. I think whats most impressive to me is that this is not a oneyear focus, this is a tenyear focus these companies have come together for the long term and i think the partnership and the scale and the longterm prospects are really extraordinary in reaching the individuals that ginni has talked about people have been under served in new york the pockets where the benefit of the Thriving Companies<\/a> has not been fully felt and including them with companies so that in 20 years maybe one of these students will take ginnis place. Gail, how much more difficult in the short term is this to do, bringing kids into offices, doing all of these things in an era of coronavirus when theres nobody in the offices . Thats true the offices are virtual. Its not as if business has stopped, becky the process is really making sure that were talking to each other, that there really is a partnership, which i have already begun to feel with extraordinary support from the companies and from the City University<\/a> of new york and the new chancellor rodriguez and finding the actions that really make a difference. Were going to be an actionfocused organization. We are not interested in theory and were not interested in making something perfect 30 years from now we want to try things from now so we will, like any startup, were going to go for the minimal viable product to start, see what works, if it works, great. If it works, great, build on it. If it doesnt, let it go each one of the companies does training, apprenticeships, bringing them on what we want to do is bring on a whole different generation. You know, becky, if i can just add, i think one way to look at this since youre connecting the buyin demand and youre getting the supply, building the right set of skills so its a Public Private<\/a> partnership and then connecting it to the demand side but a really important piece on the demand side is getting all of our companies to change the way they do hiring to allow these people to come in without fouryear degrees to get started. This to me is one of the most important things that has to happen on the demand side. Weve been at it eight years 15 of our hiring last year in the United States<\/a> was these types of people and it was 15 of a big number and even now you mentioned during this pandemic we just added another 1,000 internships for kids coming out of ptec as an example. So there is openings in these skills in every one of these companies and its a matter of them getting this skill not to be a mismatch with the population but to be a match i believe this is an unprecedented collaboration for new york city at a time it needs it the most because there was a miss mch befomatch before the p. There were over 1 million jobs but 400,000 unemployed this is about getting that match between openings and skills. Ginni and gail, i want to thank you both for your time today. Good to see you. We hope to get updates on how this is coming along. Great thank you. Thank you thank you were just waiting for some Producer Price<\/a> inflation data. We could check in on the 10year and the futures whilst we wait the futures nicely higher throughout the morning for the dow. 300 points gaining steam the s p is up 17 points. The nasdaq though has slipped significantly into the red over the last couple of hours or so lets get the data Rick Santelli<\/a> standing by at the cme in chicago and has the numbers on ppi. Wilf, theyll be coming out momentarily. Were expecting it up. 3 on july Producer Price<\/a> index double that and you hit the mark up. 6. Up. 6. This is a really aggressive number much more intense than we were looking at the last time it was higher than. 6 it was up. 7 that was in the fall of 2018 if we go through it and we strip out the food and energy, were up. 5. Thats. 4 bigger than expected final trade month over month is up. 3. More intense than expected all of these numbers are higher. Now lets go year over year. Year over year final demand looking for a number down. 7 after that down. 4 do remember the High Water Mark<\/a> on the negative sides here was in april of minus 1. 2. If we look at that final demand. The year over year numbers a real rate of change over the months over month. How is it expected on the Producer Price<\/a> index at least for the moment. The ten year wilf. The ten year certainly reacting as if were higher 6. 2 Steve Liesman<\/a> as well. Steve, as rick says, its short term slight tick up theres lots of factors you could point to i think the goal is there. Theyre going to like that im getting mixed thoughts on this the constraints on the supply side is going to drive up prices sz finish consumer energy. Came down a little bit consumer groups down but bottom line is it looks like we have not had we have had some constraints on the supply side that are pushing up demand pushing up prices along with all of this money flooding out whether or not you have a monetary inflation phenomenon, i think we have to wait a little bit longer, wilf certainly this is one of those data points that you might look back to say, you know what, this was the beginning of it. I think it was a very long way to go because as supply opens up, as the economy opens up, you can have more supply and that should keep a lid on those supply constraints that are potentially pitching up the prices steve slightly better than expected ppi data in the ten year now at 0. 624 sorry, brian no, no, no. Just smelled like sidewalk sushi, that last mile for demand because everybody had supply chain disruptions. If you had to get your goods, youre going to pay whatever it takes to get it. Well see steve all day long on cnbc coming up, going to switch gears. What boeing investors need to noah head of Critical Data<\/a> out for them this morning, including where its driving its focus ahead of what could be another month of bad airplane order data oh, and by the way, youve still got the 737 max issue. Speaking of airplanes, look at Airline Stocks<\/a> right now they are, dare i say, taking off on hopes of a couple things, possibility of a working vaccine down the road. More bailouts and a slow return to travel. The tsa saying that more than 600,000 pflyers went through airports on sunday that is relevant because thats the first time over 800,000 passengers since march 17th. We are slowly returning to the skies. Dow futures, theyre in the clouds up 29anwee ck right after this [ thunder rumbles ] [ engine rumbling ] [ beeping ] [ engine revs ] uh, you know theres a 30minute limit, right . Tell that to the rain. [ beeping ] for those who were born to ride, theres progressive. Still to come, boeings got a big morning ahead of it. Orders due out well speak with top analysts and what investors should be paying closest attention to. Stay tuned, squawk box back in a couple of minutes. Welcome back, everybody. Boeings stock coming back off of a strong monday performance shares up more than 5 on an increase in air passenger traffic. Boeing still on a long road back after the pandemic and the 737 max crisis today we will get more information on the companys business when it reports orders and deliveries for the month of july phil lebeau joins us with more on that front. Phil, good morning. Reporter becky, so far this year, when you look at the orders and deliveries from boeing, it has not been anything to write home about. Not a surprise given the numbers with the 737 max and the covid19 pandemic. When you look at the orders year to date, these are the numbers were trying to show you through the month of june. Youre looking at negative 784 planes backlog of 4500 planes and 737 max cancellations. They make up the bulk of the problems for boeing in terms of the negative orders this year. Again, those are the numbers through june later today well get numbers for july most analysts i have talked with have said, look, dont expect a whole lot for boeing you have airlines continuing to struggle both in terms of liquidity as well as just not seeing the numbers coming back as you take a look at boeing, remember, they are slowing down their 737 max production that was one of the announcements that came out last month, but they are gradually building more maxes. Where theyre at right now will eventually get up to 31 a month by 2022. That has been pushed out compared to where it was they announced that last month where it says heres new production rates heres the moment of optimism, if you will, if you are an investor in boeing and the Airline Stocks<\/a> its the fact that we are seeing a gradual increase in the number of passengers here in the United States<\/a> keep in mind, however, still down 69 to 73 depending on the day. The numbers for yesterday, down 71 . The numbers on sunday, down 69 . So theyre all generally within that range as you take a look at the Airline Stocks<\/a>, they are hoping for another 25 billion to be a part of the latest stimulus package thats being discussed in washington, d. C that would ensure payrolls through the end of march basically on the same terms as the previous 25 billion that they received from the Treasury Department<\/a> and, finally, as you take a look at shares of boeing, keep in mind we also get their delivery news today. The delivery is one of the things were focused on. Whats happening with the 787 dreamliner they slowed down partially because of whats happening with covid19 well get the numbers a little later on this morning. All right, phil stick around we certainly have been seeing this socalled reopening trade take shape this morning following russias Coronavirus Vaccine<\/a> claim. Of course, claim is the big word here because we and scientists have little to no other information about this other than Vladimir Putin<\/a> saying we have a vaccine and it works. The Airline Stocks<\/a> are up four, five, six, nearly 8 joining us is ron epstein, Research Analyst<\/a> at b of a securities 185 price target which is below where the stock is now ron, its easy to forget were so focused on the lockdowns and pandemic there is a giant 737 max issue of which we have not gotten a lot of updates where do you think the Company Stands<\/a> on that right the last data we had the faa did come out with four tasks that have to be done as part of the airworthiness directive on the airplane once it goes out for Public Comment<\/a> and when the Public Comment<\/a>s come back the airplane presumably can get back into service by maybe november, december of this year. Then they have to start delivering the airplane. The difficulty is this, boeing has 450 of them in inventory and theres about 400 of them on the ground at airlines that were grounded theres 850 aircraft that have to enter back into service if that were to happen in one year, thats 71 airplanes per month. Thats the highest delivery of all time history for 737s. Its hard to imagine that could happen in the current environment. One thing to keep an eye on is delivery rates i was going to say, we had that tsa number, 830,000 passengers on sunday, ron. That was down 65, 70 from the same time last year although it was the first time above 800,000 since march 17th in your analysis of boeings stock, do you have to make some kind of assumption about when air travel returned to seminormal i mean, could it be years from now until we get 2 million passengers a day yeah, of course we do our assumption now, our modeling assumption for all of our commercial Aerospace Stocks<\/a> including boeing is we get back to approximately 2019 air traffic by 2023. It appears that that might be a little bit optimistic. The International Air<\/a> transport association pushed their numbers out to 2024. Were looking at 2023, sometime in that time frame that assumes, you know, to get to that number, that assumes that you have some sort of epidemiological fix thats otherwise probably by the middle of next year and it can get distributed if that gets delayed, things get pushed out, so on and so forth phil, youve got ron saying three years and that might be optimistic before we get to 2 plus million passengers a day which is the average is that what youre hearing from your industry contacts yes. This is a multiyear story even best case. Youre focused on just the number of passengers here in the United States<\/a>. You have to look at what happens with International Travel<\/a>, long haul travel. Its been dead in the water now for several months it has improved in asia and in china in terms of traffic levels over there, but europe is still a mess were a mess how many people do you know who have said, you know, im in the mood to take a trip to italy nobody is talking about it you cant do it now, but nobody is talking about it for next year, let alone two years down the road thats the other thing that people need to keep in mind is that long haul component ron, id be curious. Whats your sense in terms of are you optimistic in terms of especially Southeast Asia<\/a> starting to build some momentum for travel yeah. Weve seen that, particularly the numbers in china have looked better weve seen some pickup in asia its a key factor, particularly for boeing because boeing is real strange right now with the 787 and maybe ultimately with 777 x. The longer that market is hunky, its more difficult for boeing they cut their rates on 787 during a quarter it was down 6 per month. They were at 7 at their high at 14. Thats a very profitable airplane for them from a cash perspective. The longer the long haul market is puncy, the more difficult it is for boeing to deliver, you know, their most profitable airplanes where they have a key competitive advantage over airbus thats something we watched very, very closely and then also tied to that, right, phil, is the business traveler, right . Yeah. A big piece of International Travel<\/a> is the business traveler, thats even a bigger question when well see that come back. Yeah. By the way, were going to leave it there, ron. Phil, ive got to correct you. Everybody i know is talking about taking a trip to italy theyre not going to go. But there is nothing else they want more to go. In their minds. In their minds theyre on a beach in micanos sipping a glass of wine. Not going to happen, but they want to go phil and ron, good discussion on boeing very important stock in the markets overall. Wilf, where are you going in your mind . To break. Im being shouted at to go to break very quickly futures pointing nicely on the dow and the s p. Not on the nasdaq. Well be back in a couple of mite nus. Turn on my tv and boom, its got all my favorite shows right there. I wish my Trading Platform<\/a> worked like that. Well have you tried thinkorswim . This is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. Okay, its got screeners and watchlists. And you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks youre interested in. Now this is what im talking about. Yeah, itll free up more time for your. Uh, true crime shows . British baking competitions. Hm. Didnt peg you for a crumpet guy. Focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. The volatility. The ambiguity. This moment calls for more. And Northern Trust<\/a> delivers more. With specialized expertise. Proven strategies rooted in data and analytics. And insights borne from over 130 years of successfully navigating economic turbulence. Giving you new clarity. Inspiring confidence. And helping you uncover new paths forward. Northern trust. Wealth management. Come on in, were open. All we do is hand you the bag. Simple. Done. We adapt and we change. You know, you just figure it out. Weve just been finding a way to keep on pushing. All right. Coming up, futures, they keep going up and up next, jims first take on the trading day ahead. The big market move. Futures up and that vaccine news, allegedly, out of russia what does that mean for the markets . Youre watching squawk box right here on cnbc you should be mad at forced camaraderie. And you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. But youre not mad, because you have e trade, whos tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. Dont get mad. Get e trades simplified technical analysis. Welcome back, everybody. The big news this morning, russia says it has a working Coronavirus Vaccine<\/a>. However, no Scientific Data<\/a> has been released. And only about 100 people have apparently gotten this vaccine so far heres what former fda commissioner dr. Scott gottlieb told us earlier on the show. I wouldnt take it. Certainly not outside of the Clinical Trial<\/a> right now it appears its only been tested in several hundred patients at host most. Lets get to cnbc headquarters, jim cramer joins us with more jim, what you do think i never go against gottlieb, the humerus of russia is interesting. Id been in the j j trial. I dont want to die from covid, but im certainly not going to say it works because alex goresin, theyre very reliable and very selfeffacing with no hubris, hopeful for the best putin, hes a dictator ive got to tell you if its j j. Versus russia, id take j. J. Any day its not talked about, its our duty to be able to see if we cant have the best. I am so anxious to be in the j j. I would not be option to be in the russia no, i agree with you on that. Youve been talking about the j j trial for a little while are you definitely in the trial . Its being negotiated its the trial for 65 and over its the only one there is right now its at brigham and womens, im happy to fly up there for the next one when j j does a trial, for heavens sake, theyre thought doing a trial wildly its the antibody. I think the cocktail comes first. The cocktail saves us and then the vaccine, and the idea and dave i talked about this, the idea that a tamiflu comes first. But putin is incredible. Ive got the vaccine, i know people taking it my family is taking it i remember when digil martin fr merck said his wife was taking vioxx. They still pulled the product. Jim, i know you have a lot more to say about this markets up by 250 points. Well tune in. Putins selling tech. His daughter is selling tech, his daughters buying the airline. He says that people listen. But we will be listening to you in just a few minutes. Thanks, jim. Thank you becky, whatever you put it down to, markets are moving higher and the s p closed in on a record high and just a few points off, as futures stand at the moment lets oh, we have a sound bite, sorry. Heres what Jpmorgan Ceo Jamie Dimon<\/a> said on the today show with the insurance, unemployment, et cetera, to get us through the next three to six months as we open up were going have to open up, it can be done safely and soundly sam, chief strategist at cra joins us how sam, the markets are high, its actually a rotation, dow is down, off of broad optimism off this potential buyers news . Good morning, wilfred well, i think its not specifically focused on the russia virus information but, rather, the implication that the whole world is getting closer to some sort of a vaccine. Some sort of a cocktail, as jim just mentioned so, its really, just, i think, enthusiasm that we are progressing from a health care perspective. But were also, of course, seeing the lack of any final stimulus bill, yet cyclical stocks, let bank stocks which you think would rely quite heavily on that stimulus bill rallying the most in the last couple of days and this morning, in the futures market does that make sense to you . Well, i think it does i think congress can certainly teach hollywood a thing or two about drama. And thats what theyre doing. And i believe there will be a stimulus package but i think because of the disagreement going on so far that implies that were not likely to get an additional package beyond this. Were seeing a bit of a rally in anticipation of a final passage. Yield is up, tenyear 0. 2 . Banks up because of that in the premarket. Are they attractive . I dont think theyre necessity attractive at this point. I think also the ppi data came in stronger than anticipated so the implication for those worrying about inflation starting to rise could be the response but i think this year, next year, were going to dont keep inflation in check and, sam, gold moving in the opposite direction today does profittaking there make sense to you yes, it does. Probably bringings down below the 2,000 level because i think we moved above strongly that millennial level and usually, we tend to take some profits after such large numbers. But i dont think that the rally is over. I think well probably end up seeing a bit of a digestion and work our way high. Sam stoveall, thanks so much. My pleasure folks, lets get a final check of the markets as weve been telling you the market has been up all morning long dow futures up 327 points s p, but by 16. The one laggard has the nasdaq, down by 54 wilf, brian, thank you for being here today pleasure as always. Okay. Wilf, well see you later today. Brian, tomorrow morning. Folks join us back here tomorrow morning. Right now its time for squawk on the street. Good morning, and welcome to squawk on the street. Im david faber with jim cramer. Carl has the morning off lets get a look at futures as we get started with trading a half hour from now as weve seen just heard from the gang on squawk, were looking up, were looking up, a lot. Potentially at least, not from the nasdaq, though but all or a lot of this, a result of, jim","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia601906.us.archive.org\/14\/items\/CNBC_20200811_100000_Squawk_Box\/CNBC_20200811_100000_Squawk_Box.thumbs\/CNBC_20200811_100000_Squawk_Box_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240716T12:35:10+00:00"}