Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 12, 2024

We have two huge interviews this hour first stephen ross of related company is a Real Estate Firm of 60 billion in properties. Hell tell us why he thinks Corporate America is entering into a cost cutting spiral thats what hes doing and hes seeing it elsewhere. Power lunch starts right now welcome opini lets take a quick check on the markets. The dough is up. The s p 500 is within striking distance of an all time high amazon and netflix all flat before the session financials and Energy Stocks both up more than 2 right now as that reopening rally seems to be broadening out. Tyler. Thaunk you very much the other group out performing today is boeing and the airlines boeing, united airlines, american, jet blue, southwest all jumping higher as the reopening rally gains steam. Phil has more on the moves in those sectors. High, phil its all about optimism its not looking at the near term which is ugly and how ugly is it. Take a look at the july order and delivery numbers from boeing this is not a surprise everybody expected boeing to report really weak numbers for the month. Negative 52 planes in terms of orders year to date, negative 836 negative 864 orders this year. The backlog stands at 4,496 planes at the end of last year it was close to 53, 5400. July deliveries just four planes those werent good numbers and neither are numbers when it comes to number of people who are on the planes that are in service. That the airlines are flying this is what were seeing over the last three, six months or so youre seeing the number of people flying still down 69 to 73 . Does that matter to those who are looking at Airline Stocks. Not a beat thats why wheen yn you take a back, were going to last wednesday. The president said i can get on board with another 25 billion for the airlines that lit a fire under the Airline Stocks and they have all had a nice move since then this is all about optimism people believe the airlines will come back at some point once they get through this rough patch whether its six month, nine months and boeing will start to see deliveries increase and orders at some point in the future start to pick up again. Phil, one of the themes of this hour is going to be how much businesses are cutting costs to help their profitability. What is the outlook among the airlines for staff reductions and other cost cuts when we get into the fall. All comes down to whether or not they get another 25 billion from washington. They get another 25 billion from washington, that will mandate they lock in the jobs that are there right now so no layoffs through the end of march it will mean theres guaranteed service to all the markets they are being served right now they dont get that other 25 billion, youre likely to see tens of thousands, maybe 75,000 layoffs, furloughs in some fashion. A lot of them being flight attendantss and pilots but ramp workers, ticket agent, et cetera it really does come down to that government aid and the police chief is washington will ultimately put that in the stimulus package thank you very much as stocks inch toward record highs, large Cap Tech Companies have done most of the work propelling the s p 500 back to these levels larry, you point out that while the market has been led higher, largely by the winners, the technology companies, the large cap growth stocks, 40 of the s p 500 stocks are still down 20 from their highs is that where you should be putting money or should i stick with the winners i would still stick with the winners. As we look forward, those are the areas that will continue to reap the benefits if the economy continues to recover if it does all of a suddenhave a second wave of the covid19, i think they will be able to mitigate any of the downside from that perspective. I would still stick with those winners. The other point i would mention is you see the headlines about the economy recovering but i think you have to put them into perspective. Everybody wants to talk about tsa and how numbers are up 800 . They are still down 70 . If you look at hotel bookings, they are up 27 but still down 34 from the peak. I think you have to take them all with a grain of salt when youre investing your money. Sticking with that theme, Something Like we had good job gains over the past few months we are still 42 or thereabouts of the jobs thats all we have gained back of the jobs that have been lost in this recession. How much does the economy need more fiscal stimulus and how much probability do you put on that coming . Well, i think that not extending the stimulus at this point would be a critical mistake. While the economy is in the process of getting back on its own two feet, its by no means able to stand on its own two feet quite yet we do think at the end of the day we will see another round of fiscal stimulus out of washington i think the Biggest Issue is that Neither Party wants to be looked at as responsible for not tli delivering another round theres a narrative if were providing people with extended Unemployment Benefits they will sit on the couch and not go back to work. The reality of the situation right now is theyre not yet jobs for those people to go back to we need to make sure were providing support so the damage done the the economy doesnt become more severe and this recovery that the equity market continues to price in can be the asemblance of what investors are looking for. Larry, let me turn back to you and go back to this theme of where the profits are going to come from and whether the profits in the s p 500 are going to come from real organic growth and recovery and how much of those are going to come by controlling the cost portion of the equation think about what companies will spend on. They will still have to spend on tech they will still have to spend on health care to keep everybody safe cutting cost is important, i think its important to see what companies will is spending on. David, final word to you. What should i do with my portfolio . Steady as she goes or be move sbo ing into the growth areas . What are you doing my view is we continue to like growth for the long run growth versus value from an equity stand point, i think you want to be plansed we dont want to completely abandon ship theres still plenty of uncertainty out there whether its the situation with the virus itself whether its the election in november melissa. The big story a lot of people are curious about Vladmir Putin claiming russia has the first vaccine. Meg, what can we believe here . Well, putin saying this vaccine quote works effectively enough the amount of data that we know about for this vaccine is essentially equivalent to a phase one study. It would be like us saying we have seen the data from moderna and pfizer, were ready to press the green light and say lets ie prove it now experts are concerned because there isnt broad studies to show whether this vaccine is protective against the coronavirus and whether its safe when given to more people russia does say it plans to again a phase three trial. Without that information the long term effects and the safety of this vaccine remain unclear. We dont know yet how much of a immune response is needed to be protective against the coronavirus. Experts have been weighing on this today and dr. Paul from the Childrens Hospital of philadelphia just joined the exchange and he talked about all of those concerns but also the geo political pressures that this announcement might have. Here is what he said my fear is they would roll out the vaccine not knowing whether it was safe. Not knowing whether it was effective and that would put pressure on other countries. We would the pressured the approve vaccines here in the u. S. Based on the scant amount of data that russia has decided to approve its vaccine on. This is not a scientific breakthrough they just a a lower bar. Theres already pressure on this whole process which is in part while all these phases are being condensed. Im not trying to defend russia what they sound like they are doing in rolling out this vaccine is a live phase three study which is basically whats happening here in the United States here in the United States were injecting vaccines which we dont know much about in terms of the long term efficacy or safety into human subjects its the same, isnt it . We heard they plan to roll out the vaccine to Health Care Providers and teachers and a broad Vaccination Campaign later in fall. They are also ramping up production in terms of the trials that were running here in the u. S. , they will be closely plon t llyd ta they are enrolling 30,000 participan participants its to get a sense of the safety of the vaccines for side effects that dont turn out and make sure its protected if russia is not collecting closed data as they roll out the vaccine they might never know how well its working . We need these placebo controlled dri trials well have more on the market rally we will check out ford stephen ross will join us to talk about what hes seeing on the ground and his latest investments, including a very interesting one. More power lunch coming up next plap its easy to get lost in the economic uncertainty. The volatility. The ambiguity. This moment calls for more. And Northern Trust delivers more. With specialized expertise. Proven strategies rooted in data and analytics. And insights borne from over 130 years of successfully navigating economic turbulence. Giving you new clarity. Inspiring confidence. And helping you uncover new paths forward. Northern trust. Wealth management. Its totally not the same without you. Were finally back and cant wait until you are too. Universal orlao resort. Buy now and get two days free at the parks. Restrictions apply. Welcome back the pandemic has had a huge impact on the real market on the residential side and the commercial side. Our next guest is one of the largest Real Estate Developers in the country stephen ross developed hudson yards. A spectacular property in new york city. Well get to you in maia minute we want to start with you on real estate. Why dont we talk about what youre finding and seeing in hudson yards, which is a magnificent property but i can imagine that it is a struggling property right now the retail is totally closed. The Office Buildings are open. Today is probably 10 of the work force is working there. I cant tell you how thrilled i am to be back and how good it is to be back i think its so important we do the things to open up the cities i think the perspective a lot of people have when you look at new york or im sure other places, the respect that the people really have for this pandemic and how they are dealing with it i feel totally safe coming back to the city. Its unusual its different people when you go into meetings, everybody puts a mask on they maintain their social distancing i think right now, i think new york is suffering and im sure almost every other city is with people really being reluctant to go back to work. Thats really the main thing i know how much better i feel being back here. Ive sort of done a hybrid style partly working at home and i enjoy being back among people. We are human beings and we thrive on social contact i wonder how much thinking and modelling you have done as to how long its going to take for things to quote in the big cities, the big inner cities and youre represented in miami, lots of cities around the country for those big inner cities to come back to something approaching, if not 100 occupancy, something higher than the 10 you said and how long can you sustain the revenue hit that you might have to under the reduced occupancy circumstances. Theres the mental aspect i think people really want to come back to work. Its incredible. You have to give people a will the of credit. They really respect the impact of this pandemic and they are doing everything that i can see when im out on the streets in trying to really adhere to the best policies you could have the government can do what it can to help that happen. I think in new york here where the numbers have been probably the best in the country, they still talk about opening the city but they dont theyre not doing nithings to keep the numbers down that people would want to come back to new york for. The results have been incredible the new cases were probably way below the National Average let me go in a couple of dredre directions here. I dont mean to put words in your mouth but i sense you feel they have not been forthcoming enough, aggressive enough in reopening. Am i right are you critical of whats happened in new york i really am you look at hudson yards, retail they told us if you have certain amount of filtration and you met standards we could open. Now the mayor, we met those standards and de blasio says its not safe. It makes no sense. Everybody would benefit with it being open these are the things we have to do to get our economy back on track. If we keep waiting, like you say, how long can you wait and how long can you sustain yourself do people feel comfortable going back and part of that equation is coming up with vaccine. When you think about a return to normal, return to business of more robust levels for a business like an equinox or hud s son yards, is the vaccine the holy grail will the vaccine flip a switch with peoples behavior absolutely. There are trends going on. People want to live in cities. Thats today and thats the future and if you ask young people, thats where they want to be. Why are they leaving the cities why is there such a big rush to the suburbs . We see it right here in new york city its its not right now. People said to me when things are good, people dont see how they get bad things will change i think we have the patience theres a lot of things we can do in the interim and also this pandemic will have an impact on the future and how we really kind of lead our lives and what we expect. People, i believe, will go back to where they were theyll follow the trends. City will be the important part of American Life and growth. We have been asking mr. Ross the questions. We will get to you and your very interesting approach to helping to control the spread of the virus. I have two more questions for mr. Ross, if youll indulge me a moment more. Well hear from tilman in a few minutes. One of the things hes going to say and hes also been a critic of new york and new york state and new jersey and their rules for reopening. In that area you share a point of view. He has been kwiets critical and i expect him to say in the next 20 minutes that landlords need to do more to negotiate with their tenants so that good paying tenants can get cut a break and can survive. What are you doing and how do you see the landlord tenant relationship as companies whether they are store, restaurants, Office People are having trouble paying your rent . How are you working with them . I think you look at it, i think big business, large corporations that are really the office tentenants, they have the capabilities of paying the rent and its a whole eco system. The people that are suffering are Small Business i think you have to look at it and you have to see who youre dealing with and what peoples obligations are or should feel that to be get the economy to feel good, the world to keep going, theres certain things you have to do i think you look to big business to continue the pay the rents and you might have to do a lot to help Small Business stay in business and so they can continue to provide jobs and services which are so needed final question. Its not one right answer to say what do you do final question. Mr. Ross, as is your right and lots of Business People do, you have been a supporter of President Trump. Youve held fund raisers for President Trump and that has been a controversial move to some lights. I wonder, particularly, among people who have patronized equinox or soul cycle, i wonder how your support of President Trump and outspoken support of him, which is perfectly fine, has affected your business can you walk us through that its had an impact on the business ive supported President Trump, i dont agree with everything that he is doing i really work both sides of the aisle. Im really an independent. I look at whats in the best interest of the country. You deal with life issue by issue. You do what you think is best. To your point, you have supported candidates on both sides of the aisle now, lets get to what mr. Ross has put some money behind and that is using a form of far ultraviolet light as a way to eliminate, control, destroy virus and disease. This is manager that i gather as the owner of the dolphins. Mr. Ross has embraced at their Team Facilities and down at the beautiful stadium there in miami. Tell us about this technology. Tell us about the Research Behind it that indicates it works. The Technology Behind the uvc light has been around for decades. There are literally hundreds of University Peer reviewed studies that show these forms of uv light are capable of activating these pathogens. Additionally, this specific type of light is 220 nanometer has been studied for the last decade and a half this form of uv light does not affect the human body. Its incapable of penetrating our skin this dynamic system that clous us to clean the space. It does not this is part of a entire procedure that will be part of the new normal we still have to social distance we still have to wear masks and take the right precautions this helps reduce the load we bring into our environment or take away from our environment it allows to enter an environment in a safer way with a reduced load and allows us to go home in safer manner, reducing the load before we take it home to our families. Thank you so much we appreciate your time today and for indullging us as we hada thorough conversation with mr. Ross thank you for being with us. Good luck to the dolphins. They have an Exciting Team melissa. Up next, its time for our weekly specia

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