Lets get straight to steve liesman. Jay powell testimony before the House Services committee will note improvement in the economy saying Household Spending has recovered three quarters of the decline and say this is in part response to federal spending and higher Unemployment Benefits which is running down he said housing has rebounded and Business Investment showing signs of improvement but overall employment and Business Activity with well below the prepandemic levels an the out light is uncertain. He makes special mention of the feds main Street Lending program, a 600 billion program with a backstop from the troo z treasury hell be speaking tomorrow before the house financial Services Committee with treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin and this is required testimony about the cares act where they have to quarterly appear before congress and discuss progress with the lending programs. The terminology, highly uncertain, is that different from what the clair has used in the past. This is the same language hes been using and a theme of his from the very beginning while the market has gone up and up and more certain about outcomes, fed chair Jerome Powell and a lot of members stuck to their take on the outlook which is that it is highly uncertain and concerned about a second wave of the virus and how much underlying damage is done to the economy i dont know that it is a specific leaning against the market but maybe they try to provide a bit of a reality check for how the market has sort of priced in different outcomes. Job voting to combat the nonexistent bubble they say theyre not creating steve liesman, thank you and in the testimony he seems to say, we need fiscal. The fed is going to do all that it can and now with all of the rancor surrounding the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and whether or not there will be a nominee tried to be pushed through congress, b. K. , it looks like the stimulus package might not happen this is the risk in the market when t when the markets were pricing in stimulus. Right and i think that is a big part of why we had that selloff today and i know we reversed but i think a lot of the reason why we had the selloff in europe today was that you have to say, Everybody Knows that there needs to be another stimulus package to get the Global Economy going if theyre going to be gridlocked and fighting over a Supreme Court justice or not even that, over the fact that whether or not they should vote on it, there is no room for compromise on a stimulus package. So i think the market was pricing that kind of disappointment today im still concerned about it but i do think watching powell and mnuchin tomorrow will be very interesting for the market because i dont think mnuchin wants this market to go much lower. It is way potpourri of reasons at the beginning of the day to sell when we had the spike in cases and the fear about new lockdowns in europe and potentially here in the united states. We have are the rain corp in congress here at the same time we really finish off the lows. It was impressive but i love to quote the great philosoph philosopher yogi berra, but if you dont know where youre going, youll end up someplace else that is why the market is now. You get it you have a case here where we came from extraordinary place on september 4th where youve had some of the major market cap of the world pull back almost 18 intraday and apple down almost 25 . But if you look at the charts, theyre still broken well have the technicians on to give us that but a market waiting for stimulus that is not here and a market that needs the fed to chime in every five seconds, if the fed is just stepping in on a bad market day, that is really scary. I dont think that is what happened but remember where were coming from which is a world where the fed is not getting out of the way and told us over and over last week were going to have powell three times this week and be reminded that the fed is going nowhere therefore market needs to get back to key levels. I think it is the june 26 level based on the nasdaq which is around 245 in the triple qs and well see where we go. There are many great philosophers in your world and i know you were thinking about yogi berra when tim said to quote a great philosopher, the market turn around was extraordinary. And we started the show with apple and the remarkable turn around that happened in apple shares to close the day up 3 . Does that tell you, is that a true tell of the markets ill give you another great philosopher, neil young from canada and he said there is nowhere to the fed point i think it is a tell in so much as apple, and tim nailed it, from peak to trough, apple is down 25 which is your selloff in terms of what weve seen over the last seven or eight years for apple. I think that is an encouraging sign i would like to see that reversal on significantly por volume than weve been seeing but it didnt happen but what else encouraged me today was the s p from peak to trough, the exact number as the carter worth said it is bounced off of that. And i thought it would happen in a day but it seems to have happened over the last couple of days, the vix topped out north of 32 1 2, 33 and it closed today south of 28. So you see the significant sell in market and volatility pull back which is one thing i said we needed to say so you saw all of those things it is encouraging. Is it all over but you have great levels to trade to answer your questions. And karen you stepped into the market and you bought some things yeah. I bought a couple of things. Fedex, i really like that. I feel like it is retraced almost entirely that big pop that had after the earnings and i feel like theyve shownthey could make a lot of money in the pandemic i think also if they get back to a more normal environment theyre btob which is a retch line for them and so i bought some of that i bought some facebook i just feel like its very oversold could it go lower . Of course it could go lower. But these are things that i wanted to add to and here is the chance so in terms of the market, though, just to quote the again great philosopher yogi berra, i think were lost but were plagui making good time and i want to give kudos to bk who said all along in stimulus might not happen and i think that is weighing on the market a lot. Especially with Justice Ginsberg death and a chance of a stimulus is pretty much, i dont know, close to zero. Or at least before the election. So that wait on it and then well get to it later but clearly the banks and well discuss that later but that is weighing on the market but i was very happy to see the triple q turnaround and maybe made up 400 plus points from the bottom in the last hour. So that was encouraging. Well see overnight if europe picks up on that or asia. And it wasnt just apple. We saw huge turnarounds in square, in a lot of the chip names into the close so it wasnt just an isolated appleled nasdaq turnaround. Brian kelly, im wondering, is there a kacatalyst in the Third Quarter to believe that you have a level to trade against at this point . Does having any sort of stimulus passed at this point become a huge market catalyst what is that catalyst because there are elections coming up. Right. And there is nothing here earnings earnings will be the catalyst. Well there might be if we think about what is driving this market, it is dont fight the fed. Were going to get more stimulus and negative real rates, right so any three of those could come back with a vengeance. I would say to me what im looking for, i want to see the fed take some action i want them to say, hey, listen, were going to cap yields. Were going to do yield curve control or something else. Because by doing nothing, all they did was tell me, hey, Interest Rates are low for a long time. So me as a business person or as a trader, what do i do i dont have to do anything. There is no urgency. So the fed needs to do something other than vigorously shake their finger and say we want the inflation to go up we might get a stimulus, closer to the election, depending on the unrest and there might be a political incentive for a stimulus to come through i dont know about but the third thing if there seems to be a gap and it is biden really taking a lead or even trump really taking a lead, where it looks like there is not going to be any election uncertainty, think the market might price in some stability so that is what im looking for. It hasnt happened yet but if i see that it will make me more constructive. You need to see all three or one of the three. Any one all three would be like, i dont know, like hitting the lottery. I mean, yeah. Guy, what are you looking for in terms of the catalyst for q3 . You sounded constructive, almost it is funny it is funny you say that i get this, youre always a doomsdayer the people on the twitter are abusive. Youre doomsday and always negative i try to be honest im not always anything other than that. And i try to tell it like i see it and today was an encouraging day for a number of the reasons that we talked about do i think it is over . No and facebook for example, and we talked about 245 in facebook for weeks and karen mentioned it last week, if she had an opportunity at 245 shes going to jump in i think the low today was 244. 19 and it closed above the 245 level. So the market gives you opportunities. In terms of catalyst, you could page cally get some headline about a vaccine coming to market in the First Quarter of next year and the market is all hyped up i think a President Trump victory in november is probably market bullish so there are a number of things that could be positive but the back drop suggests tremendous headwinds. Today though specifically was a very encouraging day for people playing on the long side. The next guest said the big tech high flyers lets bring in michael. It is great to have you back thanks, great being back. We hope youve been well. In terms of the Market Action today, im just curious, from the mixed income side of things, did you see things as encouragingly as some of traders do i would actually argue, i did not. The yield curve flattened today. High yield credit spreads were wider. Soo there was definitely some stresses in the market nothing to get too worked up about. But we saw weakness that is percolating into the credit market and it is going to be hard for the equity market to really to rally substantially without credit support and vice versa. I think youre going to likely see wider spreads with lower equities so today wasnt necessarily a surprise that you had high yield weakness in a flatter yield curve but i wouldnt say it was a great day. You say there is nothing to be alarmed about on the credit side but at what point do you become alarmed and are we close to that . Im trying to figure out how far away we are from that level . That is a good question i think the fed has put a lot of support in the environment grade market it depends on where were focused. Investment grade feels really good to me even if you get economic weakness throughout the fall, im okay in that high yield is a different story i could see the approach of 8 , 9 percent over the next 12 months and that fed when it backstop against Investment Grade credit and high yield went along for the ride and i think as i look at corporate credit, im focused on default rates, im focused on fed support and im focused obviously on yield curve this is an area that we look at and have some support from both the fiscal and a monetary perspective. But if you dont get a deal, i know you guys were just talking about the fiscal deal and the support there, if you dont get a deal at all, that could be something to watch off a uni perspective. It is karen nice to have you on. Let me ask you, the fed hasnt been aggressive so far in what they said they would buy in investment or grade or yield or etf, do you think theyre going to pick up the pace at all i dont think so. I dont think they need to the fed is in n interesting predicament here in march when they announced theyre going to buy Corporate Bonds there were several deals that came through, antiyield deals that came through before they announced they were going to buy so if you are a Large Public Company you had a massive gift from the fed that maybe wasnt necessarily quite frankly and all it really did was allow the apples of the world and the Higher Quality companies, the tremendous Free Cash Flow to borrow at near zero Interest Rate access to capital is not the issue if youre a Large Public Company. So there is no reason to buy Corporate Bonds. The problem, as i see it for the fed, is taking all of the this liquidity in the system and getting it to main street. And how did that happen. So far it hasnt been successful they talked about the plain Street Program today and 2 billion of loans out of several hundred billion out there to be done and getting the liquidity to main street i think is the bigger issue for the fed than going out and buying Corporate Bonds. Hey, michael, it is b. K so im curious, this time last year and going into the end of the year, the market got the nickers in a twist about u. S. Dollar funding and we had to learn crazy things about the repo market and treasury, are you seeing anything that needs to be worried about in the end of september and the quarter here and further out end of year that was big pressure going into the end of last year as you mention. My former colleagues at bank of america did a great job making that call early in the year. This year we dont see as much pressure on the funding side going into year end. I think the other, what i would say investors need to pay closer attention to is how nearly every investment or trade since the bounce, since march, april, to me seemed to be a rates trade. And as im thinking about political allocation, whether that is investing in tech because of the Long Duration aspect of technology, whether it be investing in banks and the rate component of a bank trade, whether it be gold and sort of the real rate component of gold trade, whether it be Investment Grade corporate and the fed support there, all of this, all of these trades are effectively rates trades so i think i wouldnt worry about funding pressures into year end repeating themselves. I would be thinking about is what is my true rate exposure across my fixed income and equity portfolio because right now everything is very, very highly correlated to rates. Good announcement there michael, thank you we appreciate it from Richard Burnstein advisers. I think that final point that he made was really interesting in terms of correlation to rates. Hes always got great stuff and i think hes giving some insight into where credit markets are well ahead and that you priced a lot of this stuff to perfection and emphasized or these are my words not his, but why is the fed out buying high grade debt of corporates like apple. It makes no sense. But watch high yield and watch even the hyg which goes trait to the 200 today. The fed cant defend all of the high yield they cant defund the youth tranche that we were concerned about on a down tick i think credit is the story you need to follow as an Equity Investor and there are your guidelines. We have a market flash on tesla. Lets get to phil lebeau. After two tweets just sent out by elon musk and these were sent out within the last ten minutes and they have to do with battery day which happens at this time tomorrow afternoon in the first tweet he said Important Note about tesla battery day unveil tomorrow. This affected longterm production, especially semi cyber truck and roadster, but what we announce will not reach serious high volume production until 2022 and the second tweet he goes on to say we intend to increase, not reduce battery cell purchases from panasonic, lg and catl and possibly other partners too. However even with all of our sell suppliers going at maximum speed, we still foresee significant shortages in 2022 and beyond unless we take action ourselves. I think the reason we see the stock under pressure is people are foreseeing tesla saying this is what were working on and this is what we envision and that is where were headed but it is going to take time to get there. So a little bit longer time horizon and perhaps some greater investment by tesla in order to get the capacity and get the breakthrough in cell production that they need and that may be the reason why youre seeing shares of tesla under production and again well get the announcements regarding battery day at this time tomorrow afternoon. It is interesting, phil, because the timetable had always been 2022 in expectation of any sort of mass production of any sort of technology the expectation was that it would be a battery with 50 more Energy Density so a more efficient battery by 2022 and that is exactly the time frame of 2022 having to do something ourselves. Right but you know how this works, melissa. The expectations on social media, on twitter, runway ahead of what elon musk and tesla have said in the past some of the expectations that he see out there and some of these are not from people who are informed within the company, but they follow it closely and they say well what if they announce this and then somebody said what if they do this and it get as head of itself and what he did with the tweets is look, we have excited stuff but it is going to take spl time to get into the capacity and to reach the breakthroughs were targeting. Phil lebeau in chicago. Guy, tesla was another stock that had a turnaround into the close. Maybe ahead of the battery day heroic turnaround think about quickly, since august 31st when the stock made an alltime high 502, traded down 34 in a week, 34 in a week and here we are now. This is sort of the fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me remember back in the beginning of may, i think