Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 12, 2024

The nasdaq gaining 1. 7 . There could be a big threat bubbling underneath this market. President trump and chinese president xi jinping both dialing up the rhetoric today at the u. N. General assembly. Reporter President Trump has often used his annual speeches at the u. N. General assembly to challenge his adversaries, whether its the Nuclear Regimes in iran and north korea or for the second year running china, which he took direct aim at in his speech this year that was prerecorded despite consummating a trade deal with china in january. At this years virtual diplomatic gathering, the speeches were prerecorded and shorter than usual, but President Trump pulled no punches against china, which he accused of letting citizens leave the country and infect others and accused it of withholding information about the virus. The Chinese Government and the world health organization, which is virtually controlled by china falsely declared that there was no evidence of humantohuman transmission. Later they falsely said people without symptoms would not spread the disease the United Nations must hold china accountable for their actions. Following shortly after trump in the program was president xi jinping who both at the u. N. And d davos has extolled the virtues of globalization all countries are closely connected and they share a common future. The two countries also went toe to toe to the extent that you can in prerecorded barbs on clima climate. Notably missing which we always get at the unga are the cut shots of the audience members so you understand a little bit more about how the speeches are being received because we didnt get that this year, its hard to know how some of those remarks landed, but certainly as i mentioned before no punches being pulled. Tim seymour, ill go to you in earlier years you were known as the ambassador for good reason what do you make of the u. S. And china right now and how it could impact the markets. Whether its supply chain and other things that have been disrupted. Its hard to say this is meaning less having said all that, i think the liquidity factors for the market right now are a lot more important and i think people also look at the politics of this beating on china is a bipartisan issue right now going into an election season. China certainly has to push back based upon huawei and the tiktok dynamic. If the shoe was on the other foot, can you imagine how this would be perceived here . Were focused on the factors that are probably more important to the market right now which are covid19 and fed liquidity china will be important to the growth story still. Why do you think the markets are so enured to whats going on here the market hasnt cared i think tim hit the nail on the head on why the market hasnt been concerned whatsoever. The market seems to think, correctly or otherwise, that somehow theres this fed backstop and liquidity overrides everything, which probably is true it probably is that simple, but the rhetoric is continuing to be ratcheted up you get a point where its the straw that broke the camels back the rhetoric today out of the u. N. General assembly, virtual or not, is just one more escalation, in my opinion. At a certain point, i think the market should care clearly, i thought it would care months ago and that hasnt been the case we saw the markets basically melt up, go higher since mnuchin and powell left their seats on capitol hill theres a veritable potpourri of reasons to be skeptical of the markets and yet there keeps being dip buyers out there why do you think that is and would you be one as well its really a matter of the best of the worst. We talked about the pandemic, how its having a global effect. We talked about the global rate. We talked about some of the push and pull between manufacturing data we talked about the differences between large and Small Businesses you have all these dynamics coming into play people are pointing to the fed, to the fiscal stimulus we had, ease of debt and saying these are the things that are going to continue to drive us higher. I personally think the risk reward is to the downside doesnt necessarily mean im a market seller. Just at some point you do have to start taking chips off the table whether its putting in stocks, buying puts, whatever. The vix is telling you something. I think you do buy dips. However, given that youve seen apple move 10 intraday, what has been a historical pullback, i think you need to double or triple that and take into account the increased volatility that were seeing on both the down and the upside. Its funny. I mean, just kind of keying off what bonawyn said, the volatility in some of these big market leaders, apple melted up in the month of august it went from 95 to 138. It fell like a Straight Line and then it went from 138 on september 2nd. I think the low yesterday was maybe 102 or 103 it gave you an opportunity to get back in. It basically filled in the entire gap from earnings and the move afterwards. Ill say this. I think were probably in a market, given all the headwinds going back to the issues with china that the market doesnt care, they might care at a certain point. They might care about the election they might care theres no more fiscal stimulus until after the election who knows what about the debt ceiling. Theres a lot of stuff out there and maybe thats priced in after the selloff that weve had but it does feel like were probably going to see sellers on rallies. The down trend even in the s p 500 is very sharp, so we might be in a situation where its one step forward, two steps back because of the uncertainty and also because of how far weve come in a short period of time im not saying sell, sell, sell, but it really feels like the tide has changed a little bit, especially the forces that pushed us higher over the spring and summer are really not in pla place. Do you think that the u. S. china tensions are any worse than they were six months ago . Thats a good question. I dont think theres been any indication that the longterm trend for strategic competition has changed. In fact, i think in some ways theyve only doubled down this approach there has been some notable changes. The chinese have changed their tune diplomatmatical maically be are largely to increase its resilience y to the longterm competition with the u. S theres been no signal that the chinese are not willing to compete longterm. Theyre frankly concerned about a potential biden election that might make other countries more open to u. S. Overtures to gang up against china or try and force china economically and politically to change some of its behavior to answer your question, i dont see this relationship getting any better over the longterm. Just some slight tweaks tactically here in the near term. You think beijing would prefer a Trump Administration mainly because they think biden would be tougher when it comes to trade and other issues. Unclear but we certainly know that the chinese diplomatic offensive look, we had three trips to europe here over the last two months culminating with xi jinpings Virtual Meeting with angela merkel. So they are concerned about biden really changing the America First approach, which china has benefitted greatly from as weve stepped away from our strategic and traditional allies yes, i do think theyre concerned about biden. But they also would like to see a calmer, more predictable relationship and they think biden would provide that trump is, in their minds, hard to predict and hard to plan against. All of these steps are really about securing beijings ability to compete longterm with a trump or a potential Biden Administration thanks so much for your insightful commentary. Weve been speaking quite a bit about the effect that increased u. S. Tensions might have on the likes of apple, et cetera. Would you give me an idea of a few other companies that you think might have headline risk here on this front its a good question. I think there are several areas that i would be concerned about if i was in the emerging new Technology Space this is a place where both countries have put in place expert control laws, and so the are in effect decoupling through regulation and law if youre in semiconductors, for example, i would be extremely concerned about that if you have supply chains anywhere along that supply chain, i would be concerned about that weve seen cotton and tomatoes on the agricultural side these are high risk areas if youre in these sectors or in this particular location and i would be concerned about that. Id rather go there to specific companies but there are some real sectors here at risk. Thank you tim seymour, he mentioned semiconductors we all know that is a risk to china u. S. Relations yet, that hasnt fazed the sectors. I think if anyone should be at risk here, its apple the question to be asked is at what point is apple going to be a target when you consider the attacks on Chinese Companies that, again, maybe rightfully have come from over here but theres no question that tencent is one of the most strategically important Chinese Companies in the world n thats the one i would be more fearful of pushing around than huawei. Tim the Trump Administration is correct to push back on this, but im not concern that forced technology transfer, you know, to combat forced technology transfer, which is really what theyre trying to do with the Bytedance Tiktok thing, is the way to do it when you think about it, our major innovative companies, facebook, amazon, google, they do not have access to china. That is a huge, huge market here all those companies are facing regulatory risks here in the u. S. Something really does need to be done here, because our companies are desperate to get in there and the rules need to be fairer. And i actually do think they should be more worried about a Biden Administration than they are about a Trump Administration over the next four years the point he makes about pulling out of tpp and having this weird unilateral relationship with them has really been beneficial to china as they expand in their belt and road process with the long game here and were just in chaos. I think they prefer the chaos. As a country, we need to protect our companies, protect our technology and really have a much more multilateral approach to this whole process. It just cant be one off and it cant be chaos like we have right now. We have an earnings alert on nike shares soaring as the companys call kicks off this is a blowout quarter the companys ceo just giving his opening remarks on the Conference Call with analysts talking about how its really innovation that drove the growth and the better than expected performance in nike, talking up some product hits, which is always how nike opens its Conference Call. For instance, they launched a new yoga collection that he says is driving incredible growth and theyve gained share during the pandemic in key markets in u. S. In nike and jordan the big news on the Conference Call usually comes when the cfo takes over and announces guidance, if they are providing that the epf came in almost double what analysts were expecting as far as sales, they were also better than expected, but know that nike is not immune from the pandemic and the consumer slowdown weve seen globally, still down 1 overall. The biggest highlight as far as the sales number was digital continues to soar, up 82 for nike digital some context around that number, last quarter that number was a little bit lower, around 80 that was during the pandemic when things were shut down the momentum there has continued. This has grown to be about a third of the overall business. It was a goal they set for 2023, happened two years before that china numbers back to growth, rising 6 as that country has come back online north american sales were down 2 analysts were expecting double digits as far as the impact here, traffic is down according to nike in the release because of safety related measures. They cant open the stores at the normal capacity, but they did say thats been partially upset by higher conversion, which is retailspeak for fewer visits to the store but people are paying higher money. They have higher purchasing intent when they come into the store. Hopes were high going into this report its up more than 9 , trading at new record highs as the Conference Call goes on. Hopes were high going in, but not high enough. Its amazing how off the Analyst Community was off when it comes to nike. They were expecting a ten times bigger decline than what they actually posted. Yeah. What i will say is these same analysts missed it on the downside a couple quarters ago its been a hard one to gauge. With that said, i think across this desk weve been very bullish in nike. This is a stock that seems to be impervious to the Broader Market and whats going on in china if you look at the numbers, sg and a was much better. Their inventory build was up about 15 , but thats offset by their sales growth the only thing you can say negative about nike at these levels is valuation. But thats what youve been able to say for the last couple of years. Literally, ever since that little bit of a hiccup in terms of the stock price around the Colin Kaepernick news a couple years ago, this stock has been a monster. I think you stay long against the previous high, which i think was 120 and change. This has been one bright spot in retail for sure theyre selling the exact right things at the exact right time with a strong brand. Also lululemon announced it was going to resume share buybacks, which is also a sign of confidence in its outlook. Overall retail, i still think it struggles im not past the whole covid19 thing. I just dont think that going into stores and consuming in historical fashion is coming back in the ways that we know it now, what sticks out to me about this Earnings Call is the digital platform, the commitment to that and the pull forward of revenue off of that. I think thats what youre seeing at walmart, target, home depot. All of these retailers that have done well youve seen a commitment to that Online Business tim, quick comment as a shareholder . 35 times 2022 might get a lot cheaper after you see the upgrades on the street that number may not be sustainable. Thats the emphasis here in this digital. I think this is not a quick comment so ill say i think the spending power of the consumer is going higher as they get out of the urban centers. Shares of kb homes on the rsve in the after hours. Fit, the one chart flashing a major buy signal for tech. Were going off the charts with Chris Varrone. The big events are back. Xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. Our next guest says there may be bullish signs flashing for the tech trade Chris Varrone, what are you looking at we start with the s p and put this in a little bit of context. S p down 10 from the highs. Thats a pretty good drawdown. But what weve seen over the last several days is a sign this correction is starting to run its course yesterday55 of the s p trade to a onemonth low. Thats a pretty good signal youre getting close to some ka capitulation type low. When you get this spike in 20day lows, believe it or not your forward returns over the next three to six months tend to be very, very good, well above the historical numbers we have this spike in 20day lows its reflective of some indiscriminate selling under the surface. We think that sets us up for some kind of a tradeable low if we narrow down tech and growth, how quickly sentiment toward the qs has really flipped. Youve had 4 billion of outflow from the qs over the last several weeks. Youve seen liquidation in the etf flows. I think somewhere in that 10,300 range on the nasdaq 100 is going to prove to give good support. I want to give you two names roku, big base it has spent the better part of the last two years in a range that has just started to break out here it got above that key 175 level. We think 250 is the target here longterm. If you look at salesforce, we know how strong that momentum driven breakout was in august. The stock rallied hard on that, but it was on really big volume. This correction is very benign, no real damage done under the surface. We think both those names are good ways to play this trade guy, which chart do you like . Well, i mea the bigger the base, the higher in outer space or some damn thing he threw it out there. Roku, i know dan likes to okay boomer me. He has fricasseed me a number of times. Nbc comcast and peacock signing a deal with roku the stock exploded to the upside i think it closed 197 today. Thats the one i think they report in early november it sounds preposterous but i think you stay with this thing until early november. You can throw roku on the scrap heap of tech media hardware that this is going to go away someday very soon. Ive definitely been a skeptic of this as far as the technology i will just tell you i think its set up in the salesforce. Com makes sense if you are bullish, if you thought that drawdown over the last couple of weeks was enough, then you go back to names like salesforce, same thing with microsoft, got back to 200, play it back to 230 you know, theres plenty of trading opportunities. Buying at those prior breakout levels at that support and trade against that support. Bonawyn, whats your favorite chart there . I will say roku i like crm roku clearly up 20 yesterday on the back of the news definitely bullish there what i will say is i have a hard time thinking theres a lot more to go on the upside until november so if youre going to trade them, trade hem. Make sure you have levels in mind and trade them. In terms of retrenching, i dont think this is the right time heres whats next on fast money. Tesla is billing it as one of the most important days in the companys history, but will battery day deliver the goods . What we can expect from the event just about to get underway and speaking of cars, shares of carvana are hitting alltime highs. Well tell you whats behind the move thats what my dad does. Good job, michael ok, lindsey now tell the class what your mommy does. My mom has super powers. Its like she can see the future. What . its like she time travels in

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