Deadlocked on stimulus we know the economy needs more stimulus, certainly pockets of it do. Does the stock market, though . What is if it doesnt happen im not sure if the stock market is pricing it in, happening right now. I mean, theres no scoreboard that i can tell you definitively its being priced in, but i dont think its in there. So if you do get something, i think it will be good for sentiment and it will probably lead to new highs, but if you dont, independent nm not sure as wbig of a disappointment as i would have thought six months ago. A lot of works continues to work, ive been talking about the housing stocks all year. Lows in particular in that index, low looks prime for a mega breakout, about to take out previous resistance, put that one on your radar. And then theres leadership from energy today, which is kind of weird. We were looking at some of these names and exxon could double from where its trading right now and still be negative on the year thats how beaten up this sector is thats a big mover today i dont think that these things are happening based on stimulus. The one stock that might be i want to point out discover financial, the discover card, its probably the best bellwether for what were thinking about in terms of the consumer stocks up 100 over the last six months its just absolutely ripping, and i think when you see activity in discover, which has some of the lowest credit quality versus lets say american express, i think thats a good indicator that markets are not terribly concerned that theres going to be a substantial downturn in consumer so thats what im looking at. So how do you play this, how do you judge whats happening in stimulus you see the gyrations here alone, a headline here, headline there, market up, market down. I think this played into some of the volatility that we saw in september. I think some of this to joshs point, coming out of the end of july and middle of august, i think we were starting price in or had expectations of an additional stimulus package. I think after the death of Justice Ginsburg and the additional contentiousness around the debates, i think there has been some lost euphoria as it relates to the stimulus i do want to point out im a bit more concerned about this kshaped recovery. That wont necessarily translate to the stock market in the very near term but im concerned about the overall level of consumer activity given the fact that we have a much lower Participation Rate than we had previous to covid. So if we look at the consumer, i think were getting two classes of consumer activity right now without the stimulus, i think that that continues to diverge so i think that can play into some of the retail exposure you might have in your portfolio but also it relates to Consumer Confidence and sentiment joe from the white house Economic Office was on and theyre maintaining, the white house is, that you have a vshaped recovery. In their words, selfsustaining vshaped recovery. I dont know if that takes some of the urgency from the white houses perspective, as jim cramer has been talking about, theyre not feeling a sense of urgency because theres a wide swath of the Republican Party that believes were having a vshaped recovery. Its the people that have a voice and are vocal and the people that are out spending en masse. You look at the Holiday Shopping season if you look at the, you know, different demographic groups, the wealthier individuals in our economy are going to be spending more this year because they havent been spending any money on vacations or other discretionary spend. I think theres going to be a come to jesus moment really for the working class americans who were relying on stimulus, expanded Unemployment Benefits and you and i both know a lot of these Small Businesses are not coming back and were going to continue to see more closures. I think that washington should start paying more attention to working class americans because this is going to continue to be an issue for Household Income at large. We know how much pain is out there for certain. Good point that you make its certainly one that resonates, too jethro, good to see you again. So how are you playing this market do you care about stimulus at all . Should the market care about it at all yeah, we think the market should certainly care about stimulus i mean thats played a role on the consumption side as far as consumers, which has been one of the key factors driving the economy. So, yeah, it is a factor that we do care about. What if we dont get it then . What does it mean for stocks were already sort of expecting a level of volatility to increase as you get closer and closer to the election if there is no more stimulus at all, the airlines get nothing, the American People get nothing, Small Businesses get nothing what does the stock market do . I mean, time will tell. We certainly think, you know, that there will be some sort of negative impact there. We just take the words from chairman powell which has sort of been pounding the table for fiscal as well as monetary measure. Certainly if the fed is concerned, then we would be concerned as well. You talked about the increase of volatility thats something you also have to take into consideration obviously the vix futures curve is already there in the 30s there is also possibility that we may not get the kind of fall were expecting you got to be positioned things might be calmer than we expect or be much more volatile than we expect as well the premise we laid out is should you go big by going small, a play on the move weve seen lately in the small caps which have outperformed month to date and wildly so the russell 2,000 is up 8 , dow, nasdaq have a gain of 2 there is a pocket of the Market Banking on a pick up in the economy, small caps are doing better there are many names i can get to in a second how about the idea that its time to get away from some of those bigger stops and focus on small and midcap stocks . I dont think you need to get away from those big cap stocks, scott. As long as you keep trimming some of the gains in some of those, which i know a lot of the guests on this program have said they have been doing, many of the panelists have done the same i think as long as youre taking some of that money off the table and then putting some of that men into the semx trade, in freeport and many of those kinds of stocks. Infrastructure play, if you want to call it that, scott, those are where im folk right now in particular. But im not like liquidating shares in the tech sector so that i can do that im taking a little off the table in those and those little bits that im taking off because of the outperformance of that gives you an awful lot to push into these others. And just to throw one more thing out, scott, the 100,000 jobs that the Washington Post said we lost forever by may, i think we really risk another 200,000 jobs, not just job im sorry, businesses, scott. I meant to say businesses, not jobs and jobs come with those lost businesses so youre making the same point i hear you i hear you exactly and thats why i really dont know what Speaker Pelosi and leader mcconnell and or mnuchin and the president are thinking because this is going to make a scar on america. This will be just like lehman, scott, a huge mistake if we dont address it and we instead l let lehman fail and all the other things that come from that i think the same is now if they dont do a stimulus. A lot of people share your view, they do. We had a couple of interviews last week where small midcap stocks were the central focus from the strategy of two of our guests chris toomey from Morgan Stanley privatewe wealth was on and her xi qiao said theres going to be a rotation from the large caps to the small and mid caps mid caps have lagged just because the economy has done better with the large tech stocks, but, you know, as the economy starts to rebound and starts to recover from covid and hopefully with a successful vaccine in the first half of next year, midcaps and small caps are going to come out ahead. Okay. So, josh, thats ther view jpmorgan is out with a note today where marco colonavich is one of the authors, well known for moving the market with forecasts and commentary they say buy russell 2000 value he said buy the russell value versus the russell 2000 growth valuation dispersion near record highs at levels not seen since the tech bubble, the stocks commanding such multiples are those with the highest expectations of eps growth, one of the most consistent contrarian indicators of 12month forward performance do you feel like were going to get more of a wave towards this area of the market well, its always possible and i would say historically the data is very clear small cap leads large cap coming out of reception and so the early stages of recovery historically, small cap has been the best bet and if you get outperformance by small cap value, well, thats very good news because the only way that happens is because its a true recovery and because the yield curve is steepening and because there is demand coming back for things like energy and industrials. So i hope thats the case. Unfortunately we can data mine and cherry pick these small periods of time during which the russell is outperforming the 500 and can say its been leading over this month or the last 48 hours. Its been a tough overweight for a long time and it wont be obvious that changed until a long time goes by where that trend sticks so so far weve just had episode after episode after episode where people get really excited about this valuation disparity, they plunge into that overweight and it ends up disappointing them and one time it wont but its very hard to know in advance when youre in that time so i guess my answer would be a truly diversified portfolio always has small cap exposure, always has value exposure but playing that game as to, okay, this is the time to really turn it up in overweight, for ten years people have been hoping that would be the case and it hasnt happened yet. I hear you are. So i dont know that this is the time you have some nice gains. Idt corp up 67 , sun power 43 , beth, bad beyond 40, go pro 37, cody, weight watchers, Goodyear Tire for solar, cleveland cliffs, harley, joshs shake shack, u. S. Steelkohls, you have some nice gains and yet a lot of stocks that havent done well to be fair we always have small caps in our diversified portfolio. Its hard to time. I think in this recession if you look back historically, there are several points in time you can see small caps leading out of recession this was a different type of recession. This was not a recession born by economic excesses, where we saw a significant washout that was an extended period of time that people are buying back into risk people have already bought back into risk. So im a little bit more hesitant on the small cap trade. I agree 100 that once we have a sustainable economic rebound, this is going to be where you want to be and adding an incremental position ahead of that over the course of the next couple of months is probably makes sense if you dont already have that in your portfolio. But this massive rotation that people are talking about needs to happen, i agree with john, theres no reason to there start adding here and there, add a broad index, a lot of losers in that universe as well jpmorgan wants you to keep adding to stocks more so outside the u. S. Than in they have upped their equity allocation to 8 from 6 they say its an opportunity now to take advantage of a better entry point that the correction we saw in september caused but they favor nonu. S. Equities, in particular japan and emerging Market Equities we havent talked about either in quite some time is now the time to start looking outside the u. S. I guess its always a time, scott, to look outside the u. S. , but i actually put very little of our invested capital outside the United States. I just i treasure the liquidity that we have here, scott. I think that we are going to get a big infrastructure spend under any administration and i think that, you know, you and i talked just two days ago about the massive buys in the iwm in that small cap space. I think that continues and if josh and the group are right about what exactly that means going forward, i think small caps will continue to do well and i think they will do much better than european equities, which still, quite frankly, and i know you said emerging markets, not just europe, but europe in particular still has brexit its got to wrestle with, scott. Even though thats not the end of the world for those guys, that holds it back the euro to the dollar has basically been locked at about 117 and i think thats locked there because europe hasnt been able to get around the rest of brexit yet is still feels, too, josh, like theres so much uncertainty before the election. This is part of that, too. Theres always going to be a next election and uncertainty. X2f, this is an ishares index, its of stock market in its right proportion, everything except for the United States is up 4 in the last three years. The s p 500 is up 45 , its a 10x return in u. S. Stocks versus basically a flat return for the rest of the world. This year china is substantially outperforming the United States. I dont think people know that china is up like 15 versus the s p up 4 . It has a lot to do with the pace of their recovery versus hour ours if you read ray dalio this week, its nothing to laugh at what ends up happening, the way you get overseas Stock Performance is traditionally it coincides with currency weakness or strength in the dollar. So if you look at the last period of time where lets say overseas stocks beat the u. S. For an appreciable period of time, its the lost decade from 2000 to 2009 you made zero money in the s p 500, none, flat factor in inflation and its worse. But you made money in europe, big money in emerging markets and that coincided with a weak dollar i think you have these regimes in overseas stock outperformance its not about what happened for six months when these trends get started, they tend to persist for three years, six years, ten years. Thats why you have to have exposure in these overseas markets because youre not going to know you needed it until were already deep into a period like that. You look overseas, find come peming value igatiovaluations, h dividends, growing Technology Sectors and china is a great example but also latin america there will be fortunes made by people who have diversified portfolios when there is a stretch where the u. S. Market doesnt do much but you have to be there in advance. I hear you, however, this one has the possibility of being a doozy. Except we all expect it except we all expect it, scott go find someone that doesnt think this will be a contested election you cant. This week the market was moving up and there were notes coming out on wall street that were saying now theres less likelihood for a contested election because as biden was expanding his lead in many of the polls, if to be believed and it turns out that way, the market is getting its arms around that issue. Do you know what wall street does better than anything . Make bad predictions . No, no. Its really good at explaining what just happened thats wall streets number one export to the world is explanations of what just happened the day before. Theyre great at it. Yeah. Well, you know, look, the election is coming and youre going to have to position yourself ahead of it how you think the outcome is going to turn out, jethro theres no other alternative either trump gets another four years, bidens elected, the other variable is a potential blue wave, which is now being factored in to forecasts as as well that has broad implications for future Stock Performance yeah, to some extent thats true you have the options certainly you can choose to take more of a directional sort of positional sort of bet into the elections. Actually what we chose to do is go a bit more with a neutral stance we had been net long in our portfolio. Now weve kind of moved towards a net neutral position which makes a little bit more agnostic in terms of how the election works out. Is it going to be tactical play, a lot of cacophony on different sides. But sift through the noise and find companies that will exhibit decent earnings pour during the Economic Cycle so john, speaking of earnings powers, samestore sales from costco up 15. 5 , beating an estimate of 9. 2 dominos had really good comps, too. The stock getting hit real hard today, the worst day since march because of some commodity and margin pressures, Commodity Prices up there hurting cheese prices mcdonalds up 46, cramer, id buy all three. What say you id buy all three and id buy b. J. s and walmart with the sams club and their expansion to compete against amazon, scott, with their amazon prime walmart has been absolutely killing it their argue ta their target and you know i love that at opportunity to the dominos play because ofthose costs tha caused them to miss on the profit side of that. Of the ledger. But i think overall these will continue to do very well, mostly because they have really eliminated a lot of competition by the way that they play the game now in particular, walmart, target and amazon i mean, theyve really crushed it now, costco is not really a delivery play the way those others are but, my gosh, those other three are just crushing it i think that continues, scott, as well as some of the can i throw one name out there . Agreed. So similar to what john is talking about, heres a small cap and a retailer you will never hear me talk about a small cap and retailer again after this probably, but gap stores from a technical standpoint, ill get into the fundamentals in a second, this stock, i dont own it yet, i may soon, this stock is snapping a down trend that dates back to 2014. It not in an up trend but it starting to be and snapping that down trend is the first step had a golden cross on the stock, the 50day is sloping positively and above the 200day. Whats going on here they put a new ceo in in march literally the day the pandemic started, that was her first day. But she is the woman that built old navy, added a billion in sales to old navy while she was running it they almost spun old navy off, the pandemic happens they said you know what, lets put sonia in churarge of the whl company. Shes been running this thing. The stock is starting to movier and they have done a very good job now finally. Theyre moving into digital. I was looking at gap stores versus lululemon you could not get a bigger tale of two cities than the way inve investors are valuing these two names and probably the truth belongs in between if gap can get momentum back. Lulu is 82 earnings, 1 1 staple sales. Gap is 5 time sales. This is the type of small cap that im interested in where the technicals align with something changing in the fundamentals and a Company Really recognizing how big they could be on digital gap has 60 million monthly regular customers, and they havent even scratched the surface in terms of how to monetize that digitally. So these types of names can work, and if you get that fundamental improvement here, which barkleys is starting to see, the technical calls are lined up for a big move. Im looking for ideas like that in small cap the stock is moving as were talking about it, too. You also had tapestry and target getting positive out of Deutsche Bank maybe its the time to look at retail again i was going to say weve seen a lot of upgrades for retailers. I think going into the holiday season, maybe some pentup demand there i think the tale of target and t tapestry is very different fors they two i probably am a big more skeptical for tapestry its brand portfolio, in a kshape recovery, you dont want to really be in the middle thats my concern with that brand. Target i this i wink will conti trade with pal mawalmart. Is it part of your daytoday shopping, do you go to the middle of the store . Its going to be where theyre deriving their revenues. For me its always a margin play with target. I think this upgrade is probably appropriate but i still think thats going to be more of a trade for most investors over the course of the next couple of years. Let me ask you before we bounce for a quick break im looking a the costco why is costco not you more why is it up less than a half percent, 1. 60 or so . Whats up with that . Very High Expectations for the stock. Theyve executed teamlessly over t seamlessly oaf the course of the last six months, have a competitive reopening, its poised for perfection i think from an analyst perspective. Im monot saying they could not necessarily continue to hit those numbers but this has been an amazing period for this stock and this company and theyve executed very well the expectations are just very high we come back and talk tesla shares that stock has surged more than 400 this year you can always watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app. Were back on the half right after this you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. With the carrier rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. Welcome back tesla got a new bullish vote of confidence today on wall street. New Street Research upgrading it to a buy, price target now the highest on the street. Its 578 doc, you still have calls here they are talking about an Addressable Market in excess of 20 Million Units already, which they say is hyper growth ahead yeah. Well, thats what im betting on, too, scott this is one that you just havent wanted to be on that bear side of or, if you are, you dont want to be on it for moments in time because the vshaped turns this one has are incredible we had 40,000 calls at one strike last week, scott, when i think i spoke about it on the Halftime Report and the thing screamed higher. Yesterday they were buying the 420 strikes. Its already boomed through 431 today. I think this is one you can certainly follow the fast money in here. When that fast money lightens up, thats when you should lighten up right now just a question of all of these bullish outlooks, they just keep coming, scott. And the volume on the stock and the derivative side is incredible just to be clear, you already owned tesla calls, you bought more yesterday, right. Yup the october 420s, october 430s, november 450 thats correct, scott like i said, you look at the open interest. Open interest is one way we judge how many options are out there open that people have purchased, that obviously means there was a seller, too. When youre looking at that opening of new positions higher and higher and higher strikes, again, this stock is im not saying unstoppable and ive already made my case for you want to be disciplined and take money off the table. I have been rolling up from the 410s to the 420s, to the 430s, as you say out there into the 450s now in november i think all of them continue to work as long as youre just disciplined and pull some money off the table when you get big moves like today go easy on the 420 stock, in you know what im say. Okay, yeah. Thats one of elons favorites, too, scott, for obvious reasoreasons. This firm which goes street high price target is also modelling out well into the future, which is always its dangerous to do obviously. But theyre looking 16 earnings per share in 2026. They say 1,200 stock price at the end of 2025. I know its easy to make fun of that, but the fact of the matter is they put it on paper. Jethro, you used to own this stock and you dont anymore. Right we had owned it. It worked very well for us we had great performance from tesla but we decided to, you know, pull back and take the chips off the table, if you will obviously at the time we bought it, we recognized that tesla was more than just an automobile company, right solar, clean energy with respect to some of the longer term thematic areas in tech but it got a Little Pricey for us and we took chips off the tab table. Phil lebeau is emailing to give us some perspective, too, and nobody know it is better than phil, that every industry veteran that he talks to thinks its, quote, lunacy to believe tessly can evla can ever hit the most auto makers is 10. 5 to 11 million it good to put it in perspective like phil does when looking at these forecasts, which were chuckling about. The numbers are big and they do go far out i think that total Addressable Market is a blessing and a curse in some ways obviously theres a huge total Addressable Market for automobiles but there remains a lot of skeptics as it relates to electric vehicles. The ability of tesla to share their intellectual property and monetize it across other industries, thats still nascent. So for us this has always been a tough stock to be in we havent bought the stock. Were not in it now. Certainly we want to see sustainability and a plan to get to not only those vehicle numbers but also to monetize all of this great intellectual property tesla is demands as it relates to this valuation. Well take a quick break and come back. Lets show you the s p sectors energy, another good day for energy as josh was mentioning opec with perhaps positive comments on the space. Thats twothirds of a percent were back in two. At cdw we get you want happy, productive employees. Well weve made our office pet friendly. [ bleat ] [ cooing ] maybe a little too pet friendly. Well you know cdw can design a Mobility Solution with light powerful devices from lenovo to make your people more productive in or out of the office. Anyone have any questions before we go . Thats great cause i really need to get out of here. Snake people are freaking me out. Hey sheryl, you have a sec . Nuh, uh. For work place productivity you need lenovo, and it orchestration by cdw. People who get it. Welcome back, everybody. Here is your cnbc news update. The fbi has arrested six people tied to a plot to kidnap michigan governor whitmer. Reports say the governor was not in imminent danger the Trump Campaign says it agrees with the proposal by joe bidens campaign to push an inperson debate to october 22nd this after President Donald Trump said he would not participate in a virtual debate next thursday. In italy, people are waiting for hours to get tested for covid19 despite the long lines, italy reported nearly 4,5,000 new cases today. And in paris hospitals are activati activating emergency measures to deal with new high levels of covid. French officials are expected to announce new Safety Measures a bit later today. Appreciate it, sue. Lyft shares are down more than 35 . Option traders betting on a turn around doc, a nice day today. You got three on your list today. Yeah, ill make them quick, s scott. Youre right lyft perhaps a little optimism in this one. November 30 call, scott, theyre buying these actively. That would be carrying them through the election, in particular that election out in california where on the ballot is something for lyft and uber and theyve been spending a lot of money there theyre buying the 30s with the stock at 27 and change, i bought those as well. Second trade taiwan semi i added to taiwan semi and lyft. Taiwan semi is the 95 calls all the way out in april, scott, with the stock at 8750 theyre giving it time but theyre thinking its got a lot of up side i like that one. I added to my taiwan semi trade as well. Lastly, exxonmobil, josh talked about it top of the show people are betting pretty big that in the short term, november 6th, carries through our election just to november 6, they are buying the upside calls, big numbers, scott, i joined them and bought there first time ive been back in energy for a while lets see how it works. Good stuff. Thank you for that, doc. Thank you, sir. Send in your questions to ask halftime cnbc. Com were back right after this. Ask halftime cnbc. Com were back right after this. Ask halftime cnbc. Com were back right after this. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. With the carrier rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. The traders are answering your questions now we begin with a video request from california. Hi, half tiltime hi, scott. I have a question for John Najarian vale i open it. Should i keep it or add to it . Thanks doc, what do i tell doc about vale obviously ferris minerals, as well as base metals and so forth and it the base metals that really get people excited right now, john. The reason is tesla is saying, hey, will you go out and get us a whole bunch of nickel that we need had for these batteries in our evs. Thats big its happening who have the stock up i like vale, volcan tears, a lot play out well on the infrastructure and increased demands from all the ev makes are right now. Thanks, john for the question thanks john for the answer abby in florida, verizon, is it a great 5g play . It depends what youre looking for. I think they will benefit from 5g theres a lot of services that can be layered on to existing plans and will be a lot of excitement for the new phones. Its not going to give you a high beta return for that you probably want to look at Chip Companies involved. Im in verizon i never sell it. I use the dividends to reinvest and buy more shares. The company has been able to grow its dividend of year for the last 17 years and on a total return basis, this is way better than being in bonds. Im willing to accept equity volatility for this highdividend yield. If the stock price goes up because of 5g, its almost like a cherry on top for me is ups a buy at the current price . Yes, it is. We bought in march and we ben from the covid19 Online Shopping trend, online ordering is here to stay. Theyre looking to endeavor to increase their brand profile and replace some of fedex business and be able to really continue their role as the leading package deliverer in the world and so i think theres continued up side here in the stock. Quickly, josh, just since were talking about transports, right, its not just ups and fedex and things like that transports are at all alltime highs today. They sure you are and thats getting zero help from the airlines probably the strength of the nonairline transports is being understated. The rails the rails have pricing you power. People are, like, buying dishwashers and cars and the rails actually have something to say about what their shipping rights are and that is thats a good thing for the economy when Pricing Power returns to things like transports so i think thats a sign of how strong business is jethro, to you from molly in connecticut. What are your thoughts on cloud flair . We tip to like cloud fair were in an environment where theres an increasing scarcity of growth and a pretty dubious economy. We think it should stay own named that are geared to longterm secular tail winds and cloudfare in particular is a web Infrastructure Company that has high exposure of cloud security, internet content delivery and fire wall protection the stock has had a nice run we would be accumulating on disbut we thidips but its a good longterm entry. Whats a good entry for Unity Software this is tough because the stocks only been trading for two weeks. You cant really look at a chart. If you want to be an investor in it, just buy it. Im long on the stock, i own it preipo. I have no plans to do anything with it. I want to be invested in this for the long term. Video games are just so the growth in video games this year and whats coming in the Christmas Season i think these stocks will all do well and unity is the only name i own in the space. Good stuff. Keep your questions coming well play them on the air sen them to askhalftime cnbc. Com as we go to break, a check on some of the other stocks hit willing alltime highs today theres p g, United Health and nike back after this. I had saved up some money and then found the home of my dreams. But my home of my dreams needed some work sofi was the first lender that even offered a personal loan. I didnt even know that was an option. The personal loan let us renovate our Single Family house into a multiunit home. And i get to live in this Beautiful House with this beautiful kitchen and its all thanks to sofi. How did you come up withd opened all these backstories . Tudio. And i get to live in this Beautiful House i got help from a pro. My financial professional explained to me all the ways nationwide can help protect Financial Futures in peytonville. Nationwide can help the greens get Lifetime Income because their son kyle is moving back home and could help set up a Financial Plan for mrs. Garcia. And he explained how nationwide can help mr. Paisley retire early and spend more time with his pal, peyton. And their new band. Exactly yeah. Dont forget the band. I havent. Well, audreys expecting. Twins grandparents we want to put money aside for them, so. Change in plans. Alright, lets see what we can adjust. Wed be closer to the twins. Change in plans. Okay. Mom, are you painting again . You could sell these. Lemme guess, change in plans . At fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. Time for the futures outlook the tenyear dipping lower today. One trader positioning himself for rising this is one of the biggest stories in the market for sure the direction of rates, which have been moving higher. I think its a sentiment that rates cant go higher from here. Thats one of the reasons im starting to get bullish on rates. Im selling treasuries inflation is starting to show up pce numbers last week, 1. 6 . Moving to the feds 2. 0 were looking at massive stimulus qe1, qe2, and qe3 top ticked the treasurys bottomed out rates. After elections, 2008, 2012 and 2016, very similar patterns. Top tick treasuries, bottomed out rates. Once we get through this treasury, massive printing, massive supply in the treasury departments. I think well see rates rise, treasuries go lower. I want to position in the december futures contract. Sell right here. 138. 24, 138. 27, whatever you can get. Stop above that pandemic high, risking 2,000 target to the downside 134. 24 thats sort of where we were in 2016 i want to see that be tested 4,000 is the risk reward. I plan on trading around this trade in the next few months i think its going to be a winner. Tnkou final trades coming up next. Missed a show . Dont sweat it the Halftime Report now has a podcast. Marketmoving interviews, call of the day, unusual activity and, of course, ask halftime look for us on alepp podcast or your favorite podcast app. And subscribe to the halftime today. Welcome back john, first, tell me about peloton, the calls you had, that you dont anymore . All right, scott. Peloton, we had unusual option activity on this one on tuesday. We talked about it with you. The stock popped all the way through 118 a share. Since it was shortterm options, scott, we took that off. That was a gift. And, by the way, father lorenz and mike, thank you for saying hi to me when we were out the other night. Very good up 35 are shares of peloton over one month you can see that performance lets do final trades. Ladies first shan l3 harris, we bought this earlier in the year. On the cutting edge of military technology should see margin growth and we think this is a great way to play into next year. Josh, invitation homes, im assuming thats you, right yeah. I bought some more yesterday they Just Announced a major deal with a private equity firm thats going to provide them with additional capital. They continue to buy new homes to bring into their network. I love the business model. Dividend income plus growth. Space thats just been red hot. Thats been a winner for you jett r jethro, whats your final play avaya holdings. They have a partnership with ring central jon najarian . Jd, we bought that during the show today upside calls. Good stuff. Love that. See you all tomorrow the exchange is now. Thank you, scott hi, everyone heres whats ahead this hour. Will they or wont they . The dow briefly went negative after Speaker Pelosi said no skinny deal for the airlines this after the president called talks productive we will have the latest on these market moves plus, banking bonanza. Morgan stanley, earnings next week well look best how to play the financials. Mcdonalds blowing past expectations, hiking its dividend well speak with the u. S. President ahead. Do