Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 12, 2024

Over by 250 points and this morning you are seeing green arrows for the s p 500 and nasdaq, nasdaq right now up by about 122 points in the future market and that is pretty impressive you are now talking about four days in a row that you have seen gains for the major averages all are within 5 of their 52 week highs and in fact the transports set a new alltime high yesterday too. Right now the dow futures are indicated a little down by about 61 points. Were watching a lot of things that have been happening including news with Johnson Johnson, and earnings are coming out too. And if you want to take a look at the treasury market, right now you will see that the ten year seems to be sitting just around 0. 759 . So not far from where it has been yep, earnings are supposed to take the baton from stimulus hopes, which i dont know whether those are fleeting or not. But supposedly the earnings might be pretty good yesterday kind of weird all the stay at home new age tech stuff was strong as i think the cyclical play petered out a little because of the worry that the consumer might get scared again in terms of leaving their home lockdowns are sudden will i oly out of stroke, but it doesnt mean that the consumer will go out and all of a sudden go inside restaurants, inside movie theaters, inside malls, inside stores who knows whether that happens with all these different states with big number with the infection. Anyway, Johnson Johnson, and well talk to the cfo, temporarily paused its covid19 vaccine due to an unexplained illness in a study participant the Development First reported by stat news notes that the study is not under a clinical hold, that is the more serious hold, and it is not immediately apparent whether the volunteer received the actual treatment or a placebo. Seems like that would be a key difference j j says adverse events are an expected part of a clinical study. If they find out that it was the placebo i read through that lot because it seems to me like youd be able to figure out pretty quickly if it was shutting down your entire thing. But you wouldnt that is why it is called a double blind study. You wouldnt want people knowing who had it and who didnt. Somebody knows, i hope so. The thing i found striking about this, this is now the second one of these that weve had. Astrazeneca as you know put a hold briefly internationally on their efforts, but by the way that effort i believe is not ongoing right now in the United States so if for example there was a hold on the astrazeneca project in the United States and a separate hold now on the Johnson Johnson one and this is not a hold on Johnson Johnson, just a pause. A step below that. But the point i was trying to make is there was a pause if you want to use the word pause, hold, i know there is a distinction between the two, but there was also a pause on the astrazeneca program in the United States. If there also is a pause on the johns Johnson Johnson program, then you are now down to pfizer and moderna as the most promising or the only other two that are even ongoing. So when you think about the time line for when these things become available, it could become more challenged in the like you to find the negative part of it. But i think the other one came back i dont know if you had realized, i had not realized that the there are thousands and thousands of people in all these trials and you are talking about two cases that you dont even know will result in holds. So it may push out the dates, possibly would you have imagined that the astrazeneca program would be running every else in the world xecht t except the United States right now . I havent thought about it. I havent tried to imagine that. It means that it will be harder for the astrazeneca program to become available here in the United States in any kind of similar time line that is the point. Okay. Johnson johnson is due it report earnings around 6 45 eastern and well bring you the interview with the companys cfo shortly after that report. Meantime disney shares are getting a pop this morning, the company reporting a new Restructuring Plan for its media and entertainment divisions putting more emphasis on streaming. They will central liz the Media Business into a Single Organization responsible for the content, distribution, sales and also of course the disney plus streaming service. Here is bob chapek speaking yesterday on closing bell. I would not characterize it as a response to covid i might say that covid accelerated the rate at which we made the transition. But the transition was going to happen anyway because essentially what we want to do is separate out the folks who make our wonderful content from the Decision Making in terms of where the prioritization is in terms of how it gets commercialized into the marketplace. And you might remember just last week activist investor dan loeb called on disney to end the companys dividend to die vervet more capital to streaming content. That is not exactly what is happening just yet, but he did say that were pleased to see that disney is focused on the same opportunity that makes us such enthusiastic shareholders investing heavily in the dtc business positioning disney to thrive in the next era of entertainment. So refocus on the content. Probably going to be some layoffs also though as a function of that restructuring well see how it all looks quite soon meantime softbank, they are getting into the spac game a Senior Executive saying that the bank is planning to launch a blank check Acquisition Company in the coming weeks. He said the trendy Investment Vehicle will give the vision fund a new way of investing in private companies and allow public investors to access softbanks portfolio picks softbank itself of course is a publicly traded company, the vision fund not a publicly traded company of course when it comes to conflicts, the question is in this day and age, whether the softbank spac could end up buying a softbank vision Portfolio Company and who ends upholding what but that is the chatter. And what is the point i dont get it just spacs are hot . Just another vehicle to potentially more money and also to take Companies Public lets talk about dr. Fauci, he was a guest on the news with Shepard Smith last night he addressed the controversy over the trump campaigns use of a sound bite in a political ad there are a lot of things going on that you would prefer did not happen like the ad which put me in a political context which ive spent my entire career staying out of political context. That is not helpful. But im certainly not going to give up. This is too important a problem. Dr. Fauci also rejected the idea of widespread shutdowns. Were not talking about shutting anything down were talking about using Public Health measures as a vehicle or a gateway to keeping the country open, to keeping the economy going. It is not an obstacle, it is actually an avenue to keeping the country open if we can convince people of that, were in good shape. You can see more of tintervie right now on cnbc. Com. And weve got so much coming up on the program today, two big tech stories to watch, well talk about those shortly what has now delayed amazon prime day and what it means for the stock. Also the Holiday Shopping season, i dont want to suggest that it has been delayed, it was delayed, but here it is. Plus well get you ready for apples big iphone launch event later today. All that and so much more, earnings ahead aflac now tell me, what does aflac do . Aflac pays you money directly to help with unexpected medical bills. And is Aflac Health Insurance . No, but it can help with expenses Health Insurance doesnt cover thats right. Are there any questions . Coach yes . Can i get one of those cool blue blazers . You know i cant play favorites. Alright lets talk coverage. Its go time get help with expenses Health Insurance doesnt cover. Mmm hmm get to know us at aflac. Com you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. With the carrier rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. Welcome back two big days, apple unveiling its latest product and it is prime day at amazon. Joining us now to talk about it is tom forte from d. A. Davidson. Good morning what should we expect . And i always ask this, are you supposed to have already bought on the news or the rumor are and sell on the news if you will on a day like today when apple comes out with all the new products in the case of apple, the fact that the stock hit a 2 trillion market cap without the single sale of a 5g iphone is remarkable but in this case when you think about the potential for 5g to result in multiple years of product unit sales positive unit sales for apple, i think that you are a buyer on the event. Historically you buy on the news and perhaps sell on the event, but given the potential for this to create a multiyear tail wind for the stock, you buy on the event. So there will be several phones that will be announced today. 5g of course part of all of those phones what are you expecting in terms of the various price points in terms of unit buying of a of those phones what is unique is the launch of the se earlier this calendar year as a lower price point option so it is possible that todays announcement may not have a dedicated low end phone and the se may have served that purpose. So really what you are looking for today is potentially the most expensive iphone ever when you think about the prospect of a large screen 5g and the device so i think what you are looking for today is numerous phones as you pointed out that leverage the 5g network, including what should be the most expensive iphone to date and just so were clear, at least as the rumors go, were talking about an 1100 phone, right . Absolutely, yes how big a market do you think that there is for an 1100 phone right now . I think there is a large market for a big format 5g iphone so i think that there is a tremendous amount of pent up demabd but what makes this situation unique is that the 5g network, especially in the United States, is not really ready for primetime. So i think what you will see is more phones being sold as networks upgrade over the next couple years and it moves from within areas of large cities to across the United States and i think really that is the big opportunity and why apple stock has done so well into this upgrade cycle that it looks to be multiyear tom, i think that you are speaking hoe to the single issue that i here investors talks about and people in the communications industry, which is this is just that 5g is not widely available across the country. In fact the way the report suggests is that the phone will throttle between 5g and 4g partially to save battery, but i also imagine 5g just wont be there. So how much is going to be a super cycle this year versus really a super cycle next year or potentially pushed out a year beyond that . The argument that can be made if it is dependent on the network, youre right, 21 may be better than 20 but to the extent that you have pent up demand and consumers waiting multiple years to get their hands on an iphone with a materially faster network, 20 should be quite good as well and the other big tech company, prime day, it had been delayed. Here we are. It thousand comes ahenow comes e holidays what numbers should rest we we looking for . I expect to be a wonderful prime day, but a Fourth Quarter prime day is very different from a june july prime day. This is about easing the pressure on the Fulfillment Center network from black friday cyber monday and trying to recapture lost sales. I think amazons inability to maximize revenue in the covid surge led to strong results for target, walmart, ebay, etsy, overstock, wayfair and this is about capturing as much lost revenue in the Fourth Quarter for amazon so you are suggesting this is really just going to be a pull forward from holiday sales, it will effectively start now that is the goal. There is a bottleneckat the Fulfillment Centers for amazon they cant have all the products they want to have and 4e cant sell everything they want. So the goal is to ease the pressure on the system, get products sold early in the Fourth Quarter as many as possible and then free up more Inventory Space for later in the Fourth Quarter, black friday cyber monday. Tom, you made an interesting comment, this idea that they have struggled to fulfill in certain respects and they have. You question online, it appears that they have a product, however it is not shipping for two weeks, three weeks, four weeks. Clearly not prime if you will coming the next day obviously. And that has moved including the sorkin family which gets so many prime boxes to go to walmart or target or othther shops help dou think customers who were maybe amazon only prior to there are now walmart, target, potentially walmart plus in the future or once they get the logistics piece back relative to the supply constraints that they were having, that they get that business back as opposed to it going elsewhere. So an excellent question. And a very important point and i would argue and say lost customer amazon has retrained the consumer that unfortunately there are times when amazon cant get you the product in a timely manner and to their credit, walmart, target, overstock, wayfair, ebay have. And i think that is a huge problem and one of the big lessons and mistakes amazon made when it come to the companys ability to meet the demand surge caused by covid19 and what does it mean for the price of the stock then . So it means that the stock will still do well on the notion that there is intense demand for ecommerce including amazon, but they are leaving sales dollars and therefore Market Share Dollars and stock price on the table. Okay. Tom, appreciate you walking us through both of these things fascinating perspectives on both look forward to seeing what happens and hopefully having you back to talk all about it. Thank you. My pleasure well get Quarterly Results from jpmorgan and Johnson Johnson this hour, and plus well hear from citigroup and Delta Air Lines later this morning. Check out the futures, you will see that there are green arrows for the s p and for the nasdaq nasdaq actually up by another 145 points after the huge gains we saw yesterday dow a little under pressure, a little over 1 because of news on covid well talk more about that this morning too. Dow futures down by 52 points. Welcome back it is officially earnings season blackrock just reporting its numbers beating expectations adjusted earnings at 9. 22 a share, better than the 7. 80 the street was expecting revenue also beating consensus, 4. 4 billion versus the 3. 92 billion the street was looking for. In the Third Quarter they saw 7 annualized organic asset growth and 9 annualized organic fee growth 129 billion of inflows that they stretched across all client types and asset classes. Over the last 12 months, they say clients have given them 400 billion in new business and that is really something. Well get the chance to talk to larry fink, he will join us at 7 00 a. M. To talk more about these results, talk about what he is seeing in the markets and much more. Again, that is in just over a half hours time right now though, time for the executive edge National Federation of independent business is out with its mostly read. Kate rogers is joining us with more hi, kate kate, i think we just lost her all right. Let me tell you more again, these numbers just hitting. Blackrocks earnings much better than anticipated stock up by about 0. 4 part of what they said they saw is 47 billion that went into active strategies across equity, fixed income, multiasset and alternatives because they are generating returns for clients when they need it most their Portfolio Managers generating alpha they say, 87 of taxable fixed income and 81 of fundamental active Equity Assets under management. It will be really interesting this morning to hear a little more about how larry fink feels about this because sometimes when you hear from those who have been watching the markets the longest, even though the markets are so strong and again you are talking about all three of the major averages, less than 5 away from the 52 week his, dow transports setting another new high yesterday and nasdaq only a couple percent away from its high when you hear from a lot of the people who watch markets the longest, they have concerns about what might be coming so interesting to hear what larry thinks about all this because he is seeing a huge inflow of more funds, people wanting to put more money to work in the markets. Joe. And coming up, the election countdown is on. Bo boths on t boths on the campaign trail. And were just 15 minutes away from reports from jpmorgan, Johnson Johnson. Right now here is a look at yesterdays winners and losers as business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. Yo

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