Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712 : vimarsana.com

We start off with the stimulus slide, stocks sliding off Speaker Pelosi held a phone call with steven mnuchin. Lets get the latest from ylan mui. Whats going on here they have agreed to talk again reporter thats right, melissa. We know the phone call at 3 00 p. M. Lasted for just under an hour pelosis office sounded fairly positive on twitter, her spokesman said they continue to narrow the difference differences. Now, pelosi and the treasury secretary will speak again tomorrow, and by the end of the day, that 48hour deadline that pelosi imposed, they should have clarity on whether a deal is really possible before the election however, over in the senate, republicans are moving on. Theres not a lot of appetite in the chamber for the nearly 1. 9 trillion offers that the white house has been made to democrats. So one measure will be to extend the payroll protection program, and another one on targeted relief neither is expected to go anywhere, either, because democrats remain opposed on the senate floor just a few moments go, Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell blamed pelosi for holding up covid relief, saying shes holding it up over a noncovidrelated wish list so we will find out whether or not mnuchin and pelosi can cut one last deal. Back over to you thank you, ylan mui guy adami, obviously the market has moved on the headline that the talks seem to have broken down, at least for now earlier the markets were willing to believe that maybe they could make progress. Its im i think you have to have a view in terms of if it gets better or doesnt get done im you have the view that something will get done. The real key is, what happens to the market after that. See, this might be i think steve grasso spoke of this this might be the event that weve been waiting for the vix suggests even if something happened here, theres still apperehension. So for me, i think a deal gets done this week, and the interesting thing will be what happens to s p 500 post. That was your prior alltime high earlier this year, but thats how it games out. The market we test that 3393 left. I think thats an interesting notion we are entering a period of potentially great volatility we are close to record highs James Mcdonald, how are we setting up would it be sell the news . Its an interesting question. I think the expectation is that we will continue as we have in the past to see stalemates, politicians uses this critical decision i think we do sell the news. I think also that we have to consider, irrespective of the passage of this bill, what will happen with the election whether or not the market responds positively to this shortterm issue, then we have the election itself. A lot of uncertainty. I guess all news is predicated on there being news, means that the still lutz will actually get passed. Theres not much incentive, aside from just the concern for the american people, which some might argue has not been a motivational factor for politicians, to get that done before election day. Right, well, we have seen sorry, tim . Yeah, we certainly have tried to assess whether the lack of stimulus will be indicative of political disposition overall. Well leave that for the politicians. I would simply say i think theres Different Things that the markets are digesting. They also include covid cases which are going to july levels in this country, and maybe europe a couple weeks ahead of us in alarming rates so i think whats really interesting is that the bond market has been rallies in support excuse me, selling off somewhat its all relative here, but were near sixmonth highs or post kind of covid lows in yields, and i think thats something that tells you, hey, the bond mark thinking we might get something done on stimulus but earnings season is interesting. 2q was a mulligan for markets in terms of earnings, and i think a lot is expected for this group, again, relative to where they should be. Earnings season is something also, i think theres some nervousness here its a tough one, because weve seen the short bounceback, but in terms of the outlook, a lot of things are murky, particularly with stimulus floating out there, still to be done. Yeah. I think no matter whether theres an agreement on stimulus, whether its a skinny package, it doesnt matter its not going to start flowing through to the people and the Small Businesses that need it for weeks now. Were talking about, you know, a month since its been the expanded Unemployment Benefits ran out. No matter the headline, the followthrough, other than what goes on in the market, will not be that interesting. I agree with the panel here, i think we probably do sell the news, no matter what happens a couple other things i was eyeing, we were talking about earnings, mel, most of the banks last week did not act particularly well today right out of the gate. Keep an eye on the money center banks. Thats something i would keep my eye on, so the microsoft, apple, google, amazon, acted poorly to the down side. Amazon down 2 , approaching the up trends from their march lows. So keep an eye on that when september when we topped out on september 2nd, and things started going to the down side, it was those names that led in a meaningful way those are the two areas im particularly focused on. Dan, do you think big cap, thats catching on in the that theyre selling off, because this year pay the Capital Gains tax part of this could be, you know i dont want to calm call it gaming the system, but taking advantage of what you know is the tax code no doubt about it, but mel, i say that thats whats going on. It could be a source of funds. Theres such a large proportion of the s p 500, the nasdaq 100, but then look at zoom today, it was up 4 at alltime highs, up 20 in just a week so you say to yourself, well, that would be a good one to take in Capital Gains taxes, so it just seems to me theres pockets where theres indiscriminate buys, and then theres pockets where people are totally overexposed. Guys, is it a sell sell situation, in that we gets the news, and you say sell the news, but if where he dont get a stimulus package, youre still selling the market i think so. Thats been the wrong strategy for quite some time, but the way things set up, before an election, vix trading almost 30, the s p right at this basically 3400 level or so, that prior alltime high we made back in february i think the stars line up getting late in the cycle of earnings, flu season, just so many things out there to me that suggest headwinds, that it becomes a sell sell event. Just the move in zoom suggests this covid situation is not Getting Better anytime soon, in my opinion. Unless you look at the airlines and cruise lines. Its a puzzling bifurcation here james bianca, good to have you here i will start with the point tim was making, the action in the treasury market. What are yields telling us right now . You know, i think theres a concern i have that yields cant fall the fed has bought 3. 5 trillion worth of bonds since march weve been trending sideways since march. The fed has been crowing that theyve been suppressing Interest Rates okay, theyre telling us rates would go higher if they werent there, yet theyre still creeping up. I think the past for least resistance is higher i think theres a concern that all the stimulus talk, but if we get a deal, we could be looking at inflation returning in 2021 not a lot of inflation, but lets remind everybody if we get core infashion to 2. 5 , thats a 27year high thats all you really need to start getting the market worried about inflation. A lot of people think rates go up because the economy is Getting Better they can also go up because you have inflation that would be problematic for the stock market if its a bit of inflation fear. Thanks for joining us, jim. Vice chair out there was throwing a lot of cold water on the market, but patting the fed on the back, providing better economic stimulus than people had thought. Why is the fed so vocal right now . As it relates to politics and obviously pushing hard for fiscal, but these kind of comments for me are bizarre. I think we dont know where fed policy is going. You know, i think they know what they want fed policy to be. They want no rate hike for three years. They want everybody to think the stock market is up and it has nothing to do with the fed, that there is no stimulus push for Monetary Policy to push the market higher. I think what their fear is that its somewhat out of their control. Yeah, they condition sincere, but if a set of circumstances, inflation, manifests itself in 21, theyll have to change course, so i think theyre kind of concern that things are a little out of their cele theyre just guessing, that they think they have a hand in controlling the future and theyre hoping their guesses are right. Hey,jim, you want inflation hit a 37year high or whatever, so what makes you thing one more stimulus bell, whether its a skinny bill now, and then an administration Going Forward the next four years, thats hellbent on infrastructure, is going to call the sort of inflation that we thought might happen, but never has happened. Its a good questions deficit is 16 of gdp theres only been a handful of years when it was bigger than that one after world war ii, one after the Great Depression supply side, the economy is smaller than a year ago. Were producing less stuff than a year ago less supply keeps stimulating demand it should show up in higher prices if it doesnt, then we can go full in on trillions of more stimulus next year and trillions the year after that. I think ultimately well keep going down this road until we get inflation. I think its going to come sooner that is next year. I dont think youll see it this year, one year past the lockdowns, i think it will show up thats why you have record budget deficits, and being contraction. That should produce higher prices. Jim thank you for your time. Good to see you. Thank you. James mcdonald, inflation coming next year is sooner than a lot of people believe. Well, its important to understand, this is all new to us weve never seen situations like this weve never had a fed cut Interest Rates twice inside of two weeks. We never had a fed say theyll do whatever it takes to protect the economy. We cant look at potential indicators in a historic sense whether inflation creeps in or not, the fed will be concerned about the po pinchal for employment, for Business Credit and for the economy to stabilize. They made these emergency measures, because weve never seen anything like this pandemic before, and weve had experts say this pandemic could continue for years to come, which is worse than what the fed thought when they came in with their intervention earlier in the year we were looking at a potential vaccine here in the fourth quarter. Thats been pushed out a year. Even when we do get a vaccine, thats going to just stop the bleeding, so do speak, so inflation isnt as important a metric as it is in normal environments tim ultimately the trade here around this dynamic is to buy resources, and probably to buy foreign stocks, especially if the dollar stays weak. I think its hard to understand where it is, except for the fact if you layer on some type of infrastructure package, and we are absolutely getting that, no matter who is in the white house, i think the trades that we continue to see first of all copper is weak as the economy has been stubbornly resilient. I think some of that are the supply issues that have you been well flagged meanwhile, i think other parts of the resource trade of alive and well, and those stocks did well today the jury is out. We know we have inflation in the real economy we note this measure of inflation is actually wrong. The fed can say all they want, but its about the trades that are works, and resource trades are working for the last year and a half and will continue to work. Coming up, the tsa hasnt done this sing march, and it sent Airline Stocks higher today. Plus ibm with its Conference Call under way well bring you the details when fast money returns when i was in high school, this was the theater i came to quite often. The support weve had over the last few months has been amazing. Its not just a work environment. Everyone here is family. If you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. We thought for sure that we were done. And this town said not today. Welcome back to fast money. Something just happened at our nations airports, and it could be the reason why Airline Stocks were higher today. Phil lebeau has the details. That something is that for the First Time Since march 17th, more than 1 Million People flew in one day here in the United States that may not seem like a huge deal, but it is an important milestone. Keep in mind it was down as low as 90,000 people at his low people its still down 69 of traveling a year ago the airlines. That has always been the case both of those airlines have said, look, we are. Will fuel that pressure to perhaps start putting people in the middle seat. Theyre not quite there yes, but you can expect as more people fly, that question will come up more often. Is there a delayed effect, phil, in terms of the numbers being up right now and people are booked these trips when the numbers were still decent a month or two months ago, and there could be an expectation that things could go reverse, you know, in a month or two months. It all has to do with the pandemic i think most people are saying, if we see a surge, and you start to see quarantines and lockdown, those are the two things that kill airline travel. If youre supposed to be going someplace and theres a quarantine in effect, youre not going to go. Those are the things theyll be looking for. As of right now were not seeing that we are seeing more restrictions in certain areas, and that certainly hurts in terms of there may be less. If you dont see quarantines or lockdowns in play, you may see a gradual recovery continue. Phil, thanks. I understand the part about quarantines and lockdowns, nathan, but im still scared of the virus. Maybe im in that camp i think theres still fear, because theres no vaccine, and there have been questions about the i have indication of remdesivir. If guy should shut his dog up for a second, i could get a word in ijust saw a headline that ire lands wants to shut down we know that amsterdam is thinking about doing it to some extent. The issue here is visibility specifically here in the United States, where if you want to go after over the holidays, about you it goes on a hot spot list, and you come back and you have to quarantine and that affects your kids school or possibly your work, youre not going to do it, right we just dont have the visibility right now what do Airlines Need to do . They need to book routes, all that stuff, so i dont think consumers have that it on the business front, lights out why is zoom up 20 in a week and a half or so no businesses are planning to have that people banging around the company or internationally anytime soon. Guy can you not can you be a believer in zoom and the airlines at the same time . The price action suggests were not close to getting to the other side im not saying that with glee, im trying to read the tea leaves in terms of the tsa numbers, that would be great in my opinion if it was on the back of this virus dissipating this is on the back of people getting lazy or antsy. Lazy, antsy, use the adjective you want to use. With that said, they hit the nail on the head in new jersey said 36 states you have to quarantine if you go to. Including guam and puerto rico doesnt look good but delta i will continue to look at. Coming up well have a full report on ibm earnings speaking of earnings netflix is on deck, should you chill or buy . Well dive in. Much more fast money straight ahead. Like where to find the cheapest gas in town and which supermarket gives you the most bang for your buck. Something else thats good to know. If you have medicare you may be able to get more benefits without paying more through a Medicare Advantage plan. Call now to request this free guide. Learn about plans that could give you more benefits from humana. A company with nearly 60 years of experience in the healthcare industry. Humana offers a wide range of all in one Medicare Advantage plans that include medical and Prescription Drug coverage. Plus valuable extras that may include the Silver Sneakers Fitness Program and mail order prescription coverage. With humana youll have lots of doctors and specialist to choose from and peace of mind, knowing youre covered for doctors visits and hospital stays. Plus routine physicals and Preventative Care all for an affordable plan premium and in many areas no plan premium. Youll also get zero dollar copays on telehealth visits, unlimited inpatient hospital stays, plus an annual out of pocket limit for added peace of mind. Humana even rewards you for making healthy choices like staying on top of Preventative Care. Many plans also include, dental, vision and hearing coverage. And when it comes to prescriptions, in 2019 humans Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug plan members saved an estimated 7,800 dollars on average on their prescription costs. So if you want more from medicare, call now to learn about humana Medicare Options that are good for your health and your wallet. A licensed humana sales agent will walk you through your options, answer any questions you have and help you enroll over the phone. Plans with a zero dollar monthly plan premium are available in many areas. Call now and well also send this free guide. Humana, a more human way to healthcare. Welcome back to fast money we have earning alert on ibm shares down, now the report. The mresults were already telegraphed the question is can they turn the ship successfully around they outlined the earning call about splitting the cloud and Speaker Pelosi<\/a> held a phone call with steven mnuchin. Lets get the latest from ylan mui. Whats going on here they have agreed to talk again reporter thats right, melissa. We know the phone call at 3 00 p. M. Lasted for just under an hour pelosis office sounded fairly positive on twitter, her spokesman said they continue to narrow the difference differences. Now, pelosi and the treasury secretary will speak again tomorrow, and by the end of the day, that 48hour deadline that pelosi imposed, they should have clarity on whether a deal is really possible before the election however, over in the senate, republicans are moving on. Theres not a lot of appetite in the chamber for the nearly 1. 9 trillion offers that the white house has been made to democrats. So one measure will be to extend the payroll protection program, and another one on targeted relief neither is expected to go anywhere, either, because democrats remain opposed on the senate floor just a few moments go, Senate Majority<\/a> leader Mitch Mcconnell<\/a> blamed pelosi for holding up covid relief, saying shes holding it up over a noncovidrelated wish list so we will find out whether or not mnuchin and pelosi can cut one last deal. Back over to you thank you, ylan mui guy adami, obviously the market has moved on the headline that the talks seem to have broken down, at least for now earlier the markets were willing to believe that maybe they could make progress. Its im i think you have to have a view in terms of if it gets better or doesnt get done im you have the view that something will get done. The real key is, what happens to the market after that. See, this might be i think steve grasso spoke of this this might be the event that weve been waiting for the vix suggests even if something happened here, theres still apperehension. So for me, i think a deal gets done this week, and the interesting thing will be what happens to s p 500 post. That was your prior alltime high earlier this year, but thats how it games out. The market we test that 3393 left. I think thats an interesting notion we are entering a period of potentially great volatility we are close to record highs James Mcdonald<\/a>, how are we setting up would it be sell the news . Its an interesting question. I think the expectation is that we will continue as we have in the past to see stalemates, politicians uses this critical decision i think we do sell the news. I think also that we have to consider, irrespective of the passage of this bill, what will happen with the election whether or not the market responds positively to this shortterm issue, then we have the election itself. A lot of uncertainty. I guess all news is predicated on there being news, means that the still lutz will actually get passed. Theres not much incentive, aside from just the concern for the american people, which some might argue has not been a motivational factor for politicians, to get that done before election day. Right, well, we have seen sorry, tim . Yeah, we certainly have tried to assess whether the lack of stimulus will be indicative of political disposition overall. Well leave that for the politicians. I would simply say i think theres Different Things<\/a> that the markets are digesting. They also include covid cases which are going to july levels in this country, and maybe europe a couple weeks ahead of us in alarming rates so i think whats really interesting is that the bond market has been rallies in support excuse me, selling off somewhat its all relative here, but were near sixmonth highs or post kind of covid lows in yields, and i think thats something that tells you, hey, the bond mark thinking we might get something done on stimulus but earnings season is interesting. 2q was a mulligan for markets in terms of earnings, and i think a lot is expected for this group, again, relative to where they should be. Earnings season is something also, i think theres some nervousness here its a tough one, because weve seen the short bounceback, but in terms of the outlook, a lot of things are murky, particularly with stimulus floating out there, still to be done. Yeah. I think no matter whether theres an agreement on stimulus, whether its a skinny package, it doesnt matter its not going to start flowing through to the people and the Small Businesses<\/a> that need it for weeks now. Were talking about, you know, a month since its been the expanded Unemployment Benefits<\/a> ran out. No matter the headline, the followthrough, other than what goes on in the market, will not be that interesting. I agree with the panel here, i think we probably do sell the news, no matter what happens a couple other things i was eyeing, we were talking about earnings, mel, most of the banks last week did not act particularly well today right out of the gate. Keep an eye on the money center banks. Thats something i would keep my eye on, so the microsoft, apple, google, amazon, acted poorly to the down side. Amazon down 2 , approaching the up trends from their march lows. So keep an eye on that when september when we topped out on september 2nd, and things started going to the down side, it was those names that led in a meaningful way those are the two areas im particularly focused on. Dan, do you think big cap, thats catching on in the that theyre selling off, because this year pay the Capital Gains<\/a> tax part of this could be, you know i dont want to calm call it gaming the system, but taking advantage of what you know is the tax code no doubt about it, but mel, i say that thats whats going on. It could be a source of funds. Theres such a large proportion of the s p 500, the nasdaq 100, but then look at zoom today, it was up 4 at alltime highs, up 20 in just a week so you say to yourself, well, that would be a good one to take in Capital Gains<\/a> taxes, so it just seems to me theres pockets where theres indiscriminate buys, and then theres pockets where people are totally overexposed. Guys, is it a sell sell situation, in that we gets the news, and you say sell the news, but if where he dont get a stimulus package, youre still selling the market i think so. Thats been the wrong strategy for quite some time, but the way things set up, before an election, vix trading almost 30, the s p right at this basically 3400 level or so, that prior alltime high we made back in february i think the stars line up getting late in the cycle of earnings, flu season, just so many things out there to me that suggest headwinds, that it becomes a sell sell event. Just the move in zoom suggests this covid situation is not Getting Better<\/a> anytime soon, in my opinion. Unless you look at the airlines and cruise lines. Its a puzzling bifurcation here james bianca, good to have you here i will start with the point tim was making, the action in the treasury market. What are yields telling us right now . You know, i think theres a concern i have that yields cant fall the fed has bought 3. 5 trillion worth of bonds since march weve been trending sideways since march. The fed has been crowing that theyve been suppressing Interest Rates<\/a> okay, theyre telling us rates would go higher if they werent there, yet theyre still creeping up. I think the past for least resistance is higher i think theres a concern that all the stimulus talk, but if we get a deal, we could be looking at inflation returning in 2021 not a lot of inflation, but lets remind everybody if we get core infashion to 2. 5 , thats a 27year high thats all you really need to start getting the market worried about inflation. A lot of people think rates go up because the economy is Getting Better<\/a> they can also go up because you have inflation that would be problematic for the stock market if its a bit of inflation fear. Thanks for joining us, jim. Vice chair out there was throwing a lot of cold water on the market, but patting the fed on the back, providing better economic stimulus than people had thought. Why is the fed so vocal right now . As it relates to politics and obviously pushing hard for fiscal, but these kind of comments for me are bizarre. I think we dont know where fed policy is going. You know, i think they know what they want fed policy to be. They want no rate hike for three years. They want everybody to think the stock market is up and it has nothing to do with the fed, that there is no stimulus push for Monetary Policy<\/a> to push the market higher. I think what their fear is that its somewhat out of their control. Yeah, they condition sincere, but if a set of circumstances, inflation, manifests itself in 21, theyll have to change course, so i think theyre kind of concern that things are a little out of their cele theyre just guessing, that they think they have a hand in controlling the future and theyre hoping their guesses are right. Hey,jim, you want inflation hit a 37year high or whatever, so what makes you thing one more stimulus bell, whether its a skinny bill now, and then an administration Going Forward<\/a> the next four years, thats hellbent on infrastructure, is going to call the sort of inflation that we thought might happen, but never has happened. Its a good questions deficit is 16 of gdp theres only been a handful of years when it was bigger than that one after world war ii, one after the Great Depression<\/a> supply side, the economy is smaller than a year ago. Were producing less stuff than a year ago less supply keeps stimulating demand it should show up in higher prices if it doesnt, then we can go full in on trillions of more stimulus next year and trillions the year after that. I think ultimately well keep going down this road until we get inflation. I think its going to come sooner that is next year. I dont think youll see it this year, one year past the lockdowns, i think it will show up thats why you have record budget deficits, and being contraction. That should produce higher prices. Jim thank you for your time. Good to see you. Thank you. James mcdonald, inflation coming next year is sooner than a lot of people believe. Well, its important to understand, this is all new to us weve never seen situations like this weve never had a fed cut Interest Rates<\/a> twice inside of two weeks. We never had a fed say theyll do whatever it takes to protect the economy. We cant look at potential indicators in a historic sense whether inflation creeps in or not, the fed will be concerned about the po pinchal for employment, for Business Credit<\/a> and for the economy to stabilize. They made these emergency measures, because weve never seen anything like this pandemic before, and weve had experts say this pandemic could continue for years to come, which is worse than what the fed thought when they came in with their intervention earlier in the year we were looking at a potential vaccine here in the fourth quarter. Thats been pushed out a year. Even when we do get a vaccine, thats going to just stop the bleeding, so do speak, so inflation isnt as important a metric as it is in normal environments tim ultimately the trade here around this dynamic is to buy resources, and probably to buy foreign stocks, especially if the dollar stays weak. I think its hard to understand where it is, except for the fact if you layer on some type of infrastructure package, and we are absolutely getting that, no matter who is in the white house, i think the trades that we continue to see first of all copper is weak as the economy has been stubbornly resilient. I think some of that are the supply issues that have you been well flagged meanwhile, i think other parts of the resource trade of alive and well, and those stocks did well today the jury is out. We know we have inflation in the real economy we note this measure of inflation is actually wrong. The fed can say all they want, but its about the trades that are works, and resource trades are working for the last year and a half and will continue to work. Coming up, the tsa hasnt done this sing march, and it sent Airline Stocks<\/a> higher today. Plus ibm with its Conference Call<\/a> under way well bring you the details when fast money returns when i was in high school, this was the theater i came to quite often. The support weve had over the last few months has been amazing. Its not just a work environment. Everyone here is family. If you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. We thought for sure that we were done. And this town said not today. Welcome back to fast money. Something just happened at our nations airports, and it could be the reason why Airline Stocks<\/a> were higher today. Phil lebeau has the details. That something is that for the First Time Since<\/a> march 17th, more than 1 Million People<\/a> flew in one day here in the United States<\/a> that may not seem like a huge deal, but it is an important milestone. Keep in mind it was down as low as 90,000 people at his low people its still down 69 of traveling a year ago the airlines. That has always been the case both of those airlines have said, look, we are. Will fuel that pressure to perhaps start putting people in the middle seat. Theyre not quite there yes, but you can expect as more people fly, that question will come up more often. Is there a delayed effect, phil, in terms of the numbers being up right now and people are booked these trips when the numbers were still decent a month or two months ago, and there could be an expectation that things could go reverse, you know, in a month or two months. It all has to do with the pandemic i think most people are saying, if we see a surge, and you start to see quarantines and lockdown, those are the two things that kill airline travel. If youre supposed to be going someplace and theres a quarantine in effect, youre not going to go. Those are the things theyll be looking for. As of right now were not seeing that we are seeing more restrictions in certain areas, and that certainly hurts in terms of there may be less. If you dont see quarantines or lockdowns in play, you may see a gradual recovery continue. Phil, thanks. I understand the part about quarantines and lockdowns, nathan, but im still scared of the virus. Maybe im in that camp i think theres still fear, because theres no vaccine, and there have been questions about the i have indication of remdesivir. If guy should shut his dog up for a second, i could get a word in ijust saw a headline that ire lands wants to shut down we know that amsterdam is thinking about doing it to some extent. The issue here is visibility specifically here in the United States<\/a>, where if you want to go after over the holidays, about you it goes on a hot spot list, and you come back and you have to quarantine and that affects your kids school or possibly your work, youre not going to do it, right we just dont have the visibility right now what do Airlines Need<\/a> to do . They need to book routes, all that stuff, so i dont think consumers have that it on the business front, lights out why is zoom up 20 in a week and a half or so no businesses are planning to have that people banging around the company or internationally anytime soon. Guy can you not can you be a believer in zoom and the airlines at the same time . The price action suggests were not close to getting to the other side im not saying that with glee, im trying to read the tea leaves in terms of the tsa numbers, that would be great in my opinion if it was on the back of this virus dissipating this is on the back of people getting lazy or antsy. Lazy, antsy, use the adjective you want to use. With that said, they hit the nail on the head in new jersey said 36 states you have to quarantine if you go to. Including guam and puerto rico doesnt look good but delta i will continue to look at. Coming up well have a full report on ibm earnings speaking of earnings netflix is on deck, should you chill or buy . Well dive in. Much more fast money straight ahead. Like where to find the cheapest gas in town and which supermarket gives you the most bang for your buck. Something else thats good to know. If you have medicare you may be able to get more benefits without paying more through a Medicare Advantage<\/a> plan. Call now to request this free guide. Learn about plans that could give you more benefits from humana. A company with nearly 60 years of experience in the healthcare industry. Humana offers a wide range of all in one Medicare Advantage<\/a> plans that include medical and Prescription Drug<\/a> coverage. Plus valuable extras that may include the Silver Sneakers Fitness Program<\/a> and mail order prescription coverage. With humana youll have lots of doctors and specialist to choose from and peace of mind, knowing youre covered for doctors visits and hospital stays. Plus routine physicals and Preventative Care<\/a> all for an affordable plan premium and in many areas no plan premium. Youll also get zero dollar copays on telehealth visits, unlimited inpatient hospital stays, plus an annual out of pocket limit for added peace of mind. Humana even rewards you for making healthy choices like staying on top of Preventative Care<\/a>. Many plans also include, dental, vision and hearing coverage. And when it comes to prescriptions, in 2019 humans Medicare Advantage<\/a> Prescription Drug<\/a> plan members saved an estimated 7,800 dollars on average on their prescription costs. So if you want more from medicare, call now to learn about humana Medicare Options<\/a> that are good for your health and your wallet. A licensed humana sales agent will walk you through your options, answer any questions you have and help you enroll over the phone. Plans with a zero dollar monthly plan premium are available in many areas. Call now and well also send this free guide. Humana, a more human way to healthcare. Welcome back to fast money we have earning alert on ibm shares down, now the report. The mresults were already telegraphed the question is can they turn the ship successfully around they outlined the earning call about splitting the cloud and Infrastructure Service<\/a> business will benefit ininvestmentors have a listen. Set of businesses each can capitalize on their respective missions, well have more agility to operate or financial models and both will partner with others and both will align their investment and capital structure to this focus area. Now when we get to q a analysts are likely going to ask what he plans to do with cost savings from the new plan. Ibm is has capital rebust return plan has created it to lag far behind the giants. Under the plan, early indications are that krishna is more willing to reinvest but ibm is a long way off what microsoft and amazon and google are spending kavanaugh on the call said the last seven months have made clear that Companies Need<\/a> to modernize to succeed in this new normal melissa, thats certainly true for ibm. Deadra thank you. Keep us posted on the Conference Call<\/a> tim, when that spin off announced the business this panel greeted it skeptically i wonder what questions remain in your head regarding this plan. The questions are how are you going to grow the top line to be high multiple business you got to have the kind of growth were see in the other Cloud Business<\/a> and frankly what was guided here, upper Single Digits<\/a> is nothing to get that worked up over yes, it makes a lot of sense, the market understandably rewarded the focus on software and spin co can take the gts legacy business which will be a decent business. Where is the top line going . Stocks down 8 percent not counting afterhours move off that euphoria which everyones saying they have to prove it to us somewhere north of 160 is where the stock needs to break to get out of the range its teasing investors. Right now the growth isnt fast enough well see where they go. To get to 160 thats a lot of sky above current share level, dan. Yeah, i mean, listen as debo laid it out this is a confusing set up and youd like to see them kitchen sink things when you look on twitter the effective tax rate in this quarter reported was 7 percent the gap results are not good when you look at the cognitive and cloud group it grew 5. 5 percent year over year thats not the sort of growth that will be reward in this market to me it seems like a big mess. James, your take on ibm i think the path forward for ibm is acquisitions we got disruption across the cloud not just in service but Infrastructure Management<\/a> on the cloud platforms. Theres a lot of upstarts that look good that could make them more competitive against the big boys in the room and i think thats what excites me about this stock, upside potential. Excites you, meaning you would own it yes i think this is an expensive space and ibm is not going anywhere, its a forever business, theyre smart guys and a think an acquisition could give them access seller ant. Im looking for assets with future potential that arent terribly over valued. Ibm just one of the names reporting on the docket, tesla, intel among others so we thought it is perfect time to play trade it or fade it, earnings edition few key names. First up, tesla, reporting on wednesday. Dan, kick it off to set a good example for our new member james. Trade it or fade it . This is going to be an easy one. Ive been fading it the whole way and ive been wrong the stock has not made a new high. I bet james does better with tesla than we do listen, we already know what the deliveries are, at this point its just whats the momentum in the name, obviously its big here, but im not buying it for events that we know sometimes are mental gymnastics the way they report the results. Next up procter and gamble . I got to fade it. Were no longer short paper towels procter and gamble are in so many businesses but that price is way, way too high. Yeah. Tim woulda agree or disagree with james take tell you what, i think the have trades weve touched on the theme of covid, i think procter and gamble will continue to do well, whether 30 times trailing or where we are Going Forward<\/a> i struggle with this having said that, all right, what do you want me to do, im going to trade it. I dont like the valuation i think the stock stays well bid. I think we pulled forward a lot. Were trying here. Tim, almost played the game guy like you go. Almost. Which is badly. Ha ha. You know something, no, thats not true. Okay first off, i appreciate you going to me last or third or whatever because i got to listen to the other guys. You got to warm up. Learn the rules of the game yeah so if youre ready for me, im ready to go here no i just cant your take on p g fade or trade . Fade it valuation makes zero sense this trade is on forward multiple and look at Earnings Growth<\/a> and say why would i possibly by procter and gamble my opinion. Snap is set to earnings tomorrow, tim, chance for redemption, trading or fading it tell you what, im going to trade this one, not because i love the valuation but you look at trend and scarcity in social media strayed and growing relatively faster than facebook or twitter, snaps a trade i havent necessarily been endorsing and im going to try to get this one right for tomorrows trade dan all right i think you fade this one. I didnt hear the buzzer but i think you fade this one. Stock is up 75 percent of the year to me it has nothing to do with valuation, i think in the last quarter they disappoint in dau but Revenue Growth<\/a> was better than expected. They benefited from the advertising boycott that guy likes to talk about, from facebook into late june into july i dont think you will see the same sort of bump they had theres any disappointmented on daus youll have this stock in mid20s quickly. Chipotlely reported on wednesday, trade it or fade it. Burrito blow out, youre trading that sucker. You hear the cash register, trade it dan can streak this, option market suggest 7 percent move and stock sold high since september 2nd, they have become one of these Restaurant Technology<\/a> plays, i think it trades through the recent alltime high of september. Coming up, Restoration Hardware<\/a> in the red as one sees 15 percent slide in the stock. More on that, and james taking the name you should add to your cart right now fast pitch on deck when fast money returns y about that. Umm. What. Its. Um. Boss you alright . [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e trade. It has powerful, easytouse tools to help you find opportunities, 24 7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures Contract Prices<\/a> around. Dont get mad. Get e trade and start trading today. If youre concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes . If you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities . For nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in Companies Making<\/a> a difference because we see value in doing good. Talk to your Financial Advisor<\/a> about investing responsibly with calvert. Welcome back to fast money. One ecommerce giant rallied more than 120 percent this year but its not over yet. James, give us your best fast pitch. Talking about mercadolibre a monster company. We got data, we got reality. This is a market with 640 Million People<\/a> in 18 countries, 200 million are just starting to buy Merchandise Online<\/a> and hundred million more coming online and this is the place to capture this growth. It has great leadership in major tech firms this founder has been there since the beginning and 75 percent have been there over 20 years, and 95 percent employees rate this firm better than others only 84 percent of amazon employees would recommend jeff bezos for their friends. The Balance Sheet<\/a> is great 3. 3 billion in cash. 3 350 348ds million recent stoc buy back and get an ebay craigslist shop it buy. And amazon all in one and a huge, huge market in latin america. Let it sink in, number one e commerce, shipping, payment, ad network and number one Cloud Service<\/a> in a single stock that is me lrli, its payment processg system makes it fintech play as well will do business in ways never done before. This company is beating amazon thats probably thebiggest reason to own this Company Amazon<\/a> is doing everything right but cant get traction in these markets where there is considerable upside growth i love this company. 5 million new customers thanks to covid, providing tailwind for the business increasing profits year over year this is a stock you got to earn. What a first fast pitch wow. Guy, you got a question for james. Throwing high heat. Im glad james mention brazil as you know i speak portuguese, different show, different time james addressed everything, all those things i get, but my question, how do you get comfortable despite everything you said, with their valuation so valuation cant matter here because of the upside. If you look at where this thing is only 5 percent of this market in this latin american situation is using ecommerce so the ramp is so steep and so significant that the valuation will continue to expand because the money is going to keep coming, valuation is not compared the same as in the state because the market is so new. Buying or selling his pitch guy 1234. Guy . Im going to stay long into november 5th. Tremendous power pitch, well done, james. Tim seymour who has been known to traffic in this name. James this is a great, great call by you, nasty cheese up and in, by the way thats a map of south america, okay. Yeah, i love the dem grattic story, i love the 4 percent penetration on ecommerce on 675 pops in latin america, its huge, huge business. Good job dan. Very nice job, james. Im not a buyer. I love the fundamental story this was a show that didnt look at charts and parabolic moves, the stock rallied 35 percent in the last month alone i suspect all of what james said could be true but it could pull back from september highs and youll have an opportunity to buy at not alltime high great pitch im not a buyer. Thats fair its your turn now, head over to our twitter and tell us if youre buying. Up next, stand out stock since midmarch one analyst saayys m be hard time as head well bring you the name when fast money returns for skin as alive as you are. Dont settle for silver gold bond champion your skin i paid off my credit cards and apand felt a weightnal loan. Come off my shoulders. Thank you sofi for a great experience and for helping me get my money right. Welcome back to fast money. Major buzz kill for shares of rh, jeffries, under performed. Could fall 15 percent. Guy, youve liked rh what do you think of the call . Well, i respect the call a great deal i think they said 320 price target thats exactly where the stock was trading before they reported that ridiculous quarter, after hours went to 321 there about. Ill say restore ratio hardware 20 times last years number is not ridiculous growth in terms of valuation i think theyre playing a bit of stock market i will say a week or so prior, cohen initiated with 434 price target you already had the sell off, i dont see it getting back to 320 i respect the call but think youre buying weakness. Housing has been a bright spot, another record, is rh still a good buy here . Well, i think its relative value. So guy is pointing out you could make an argument on a forward number they were more attractive than trail because they had a great year and looks like this growth may stay. We talk about some of the other places you can get better value. I think Sherman Williams<\/a> and williams sonoma, we talked about it 16 times, whether selling a lot of dutch ovens or not, the valuation for Restoration Hardware<\/a> does make a lot of sense. Dont know why that cooking vessel keeps coming up in our conversation James Mcdonald<\/a> your favorite play in the housing space . Well its a great question. I like the home builder etfs. I like home depot. I like company thats are going to stay the course or bask it. This is a very dangerous time right now. We may be peaking with this pandemic now hitting our economy. I think were on the way down. Even though rates are low, sentiment is high, great numbers, three consecutive months in a row best numbers for housing, i think the trend stops so home depot is my pick Going Forward<\/a>. Coming up, will tell you how trading netflix into earnings tomorrow and time for james fast pitch on mercado libre. Fast money back after this when i was in high school, this was the theater i came to quite often. The support weve had over the last few months has been amazing. Its not just a work environment. Everyone here is family. If you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. We thought for sure that we were done. And this town said not today. Welcome back to fast money. Its not too late to register for tomorrows cnbc fa summit with a huge lineup visit cnbcevents. Com fasummit to learn more Netflix Streaming<\/a> stock has been on a tear and option traders betting on big gains ahead mike with the action, hey mike. We saw calls out pace puts by 2 to 1 thats not unusual weve been seeing that for past couple weeks already. Right now Options Market<\/a> is implying move 49 a little over 9 percent of the current stock price. Sounds like a stock but this stock move as lot averaging 7 percent over the last eight quarters or so one of the more popular trades today targeting earnings specifically was weekly 540, 550 call spread buyers spending 3. 70 to make bullish bets, but are betting on smaller move, targeting move of 2. 7 to 4 percent to the upside. That would represent obviously a good earnings result. Thanks for that mike. James, you like netflix here i love netflix because of the potential. A lot of people talk about whats happening now this is a Technology Monster<\/a> in the room Artificial Intelligence<\/a> is going to eventually introduce incontent advertising and netflix will be beneficiary of that i will see triple digit growth for Companies Like<\/a> netflix that have the distribution and brand loyalty. For that reason i got to own it. Hey, mel. Hey, guy. Last night i had the Remote Control<\/a> and apparently theres a microphone button that you push it down and tell the Remote Control<\/a> what you want and so i pushed the button and said netflix and then i said, the crown. And it actually worked we watched this crown thing which i found be extraordinarily boring. I love the crown. Of course you do, of course you do its a wonderful show. I learned a lot actually its fascinating what went on, a lot of intrigue in early 50s. I dont think Winston Churchill<\/a> is as nice a guy as history portrays him but i completely digre digress, you look at what netflix has done, over lay amazon and theyre in union. Im with cocoa be wear. You know the crown is fictional not a documentary in anyway in terms of what happened back then. Dan, whats your take on netflix maybe even the crown if you like to add your thoughts as well. Interesting what mike said about the call trade activity hes seeing, theyre looking to move up to 550 if you look at july high and this month its at 573 or so. To get a break out youd see a meaningful acceleration in users. I just dont see that i think some people think they have Pricing Power<\/a> here i think you see it come back towards 500, the up trend. In the near term dont see it breaking out more options action friday at 5 30 eastern time. Up next last chance to vote on mercado libre. S twitter results after this at cdwwell weve made our happy,office pet friendly. S. [ bleat ] [ cooing ] maybe a little too pet friendly. Well you know cdw can design a Mobility Solution<\/a> with light powerful devices from lenovo to make your people more productive in or out of the office. Anyone have any questions before we go . Thats great cause i really need to get out of here. Snake people are freaking me out. Hey sheryl, you have a sec . Nuh, uh. For work place productivity you need lenovo, and it orchestration by cdw. People who get it. As business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. You can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. Welcome back to fast money. Time it find out if our viewers at home are buying James Mcdonald<\/a>s debut fast pitch, it was tight, down to the decimal point, you hear it, sthar theyre buying your fast pitch on mercado libre. Youre having the time of your life look at him dance. Time for the final trade lets go around the horn tim . I had the time of my life all right, james . Oh, sorry, u vrks xy, i got to own it. Uvx yrks this the uncertainly is finally going to be realized is 40 etf at 17 right now. Seller of ibm. Dan guy . Cleveland i am here to level the plain field for all investors there is always a bull market some where i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, i am cramer welcome to mad money, welcome to cramer america. My job is not just to entertain you but to educate you and tweet you. Call me or tweet me jimcramer what if earnings just dont matter anymore","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia601703.us.archive.org\/31\/items\/CNBC_20201019_210000_Fast_Money\/CNBC_20201019_210000_Fast_Money.thumbs\/CNBC_20201019_210000_Fast_Money_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240716T12:35:10+00:00"}