Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712

Action, announcing a fourweek shutdown of all restaurants and bars and france requiring people to remain in their homes except going out for essentials and here in the u. S. , a new round of coronavirus a hit to the economy because of recessions abroad. Guy, what do you say its fascinating. The market hasnt cared about a lot of stuff you mentioned except for this week i have been wondering why the market hadnt been selling off one of the things i was saying was it was stuck above 25, but the market didnt care so my views were dead wrong. Now the market cares i will paint a rosy picture tomorrow tomorrow they closed either side of 40. Go back and look i think june 11th it popped out at 40. You could potentially see a washout tomorrow morning down to 32. 09 which was a september low. Maybe close off those lows some huge earnings from these companies, maybe it will be the mother of return gains friday. I think 32. 09 is the likely place of support on the s p. Today was shocking, tim, but you expect more . If you look back to the levels we peaked in march and dont weave in the volatility around the election, you could make an argument we could see a spike double what it is here the context of what we can understand about the virus means i dont think we should recreate those numbers, but what we dont know about the market and whats ahead of us, and without getting too wonky, we dont understand where people might be positioning going into this i think volatility has to go higher because of the apex of the round two or late round one of corona is not with us we are going into the biggest day in earnings on thursday. If you think about where we were last quarter, every one of these Companies Beat the bar and destroyed their numbers to the upside the bar is very high the leadership has never been more needed by the market. I think you have concerns. My Glass Half Full and my rosy look is that it is still here. The market has been here before. 3200 takes you back to the june height or where we have been at times and thats a 10 correction the dynamics where we are around covid and lack of fiscal, i think markets and a lot of players have decided to sit this one to the side. Your take bonawyn you mentioned it today in terms of gold as well. Things we viewed as things you can hold for historic value are also being sold. Its implying about 2 1 2 move on an annualized basis they just seem to be catching up to that. You i think you have to get used to an increase in volatility in the interim. Karen, what do you use as a hedge these days i dont have a great answer to that except that i am selling some of my hedges. Wife seen volatility spikes before, not that it cant go substantially higher it can, but to me there is a lot of fear priced in already, so what i am trying to do is sell some of the things that are hedges, so s p puts, for example and i have a list of things to buy. I didnt do any buying today, but on my list is disney and ups and terrible stock reaction which guy thought would happen fed fedex, i already own some. A resurgence is not good for t. J. Maxx, but longer term this is an Extraordinary Company and you dont get to buy at this price very often it feels keshl when things look ugly, but i just keep sell some every day no the volatility. This is the third day of losses for those conditioned to buy in the dip, this might be a rude awakening. What is your message we didnt get much of a bid to bonds. Nothing worked today listen, you know this better than anyone. We have seen days, weeks like this over the last year and a half before. The hedges you spoke of havent worked and then a few days later they start to work people who have waited and bought when the market sold off to this place have been rewarded i think the fed is still your friend and into tuesday i think there will be a concerted effort to see this market stabilizes in some fashion thats just me trying to read the tea leaves you have to take emotion out of it on days when the dow goes up 500 points, everybody deems it to make sense and days like today its panic it can be panic on both sides and fundamentally driven on both sides. I am glad karen mentioned ups. I didnt think anything would happen but i pointed out they went up in a Straight Line from the summer and needed to have remarkable numbers for that to continue i thought we would see a pullback and here we have it today. We have some news on regeneron. Lets get details. We had already seen initial data on regeneron suggesting that it worked to lower the load in patients recently diagnosed with covid19. We are seeing more from this Clinical Trial for 800 patients overall with recently diagnosed covid19, the study is showing this drug reduced the risk of needing to go to the hospital or have other medical visits by 57 compared to those with pla seebz. With patients in higher age, other body risks, the drug reduced the risk by 72 . If you could reduce the risk by treating people early by 57 or 72 , that would be a big difference in the disease. The problem is regeneron only has 57,000 doses right now they are waiting for approval by the fda and are ramping up for production to get to 300,000 in the next few months. This is the same antibody treatment for hospitalized patients, no this does not have emergency use authorization at all this is the cocktail the president was treated with this is for people who have not been hospitalized but diagnosed with the disease they are waiting for word from the fda. Eli lilly is in the same position it was shown not to help people in hospital settings but it could be helpful early and regeneron shows it does. That could be helpful psychologically if a treatment existed to prevent you from getting to the point of a hospital, or reduce your chances. Thats right. More signs of a vaccine as opposed to a treatment think about some of those first announcements for the market when we were not far off the apex of where we were in the early spring into summer the markets response to those events was powerful. The market neepds those. They have been given the sense where there is progress on multiple fronts on vaccine and testing, but the news overthe last couple days europe in lockdown today thats exactly what the market needs and i think what our country needs. You are seeing the binary nature of what is going on this is a recession and rebound. Any news will lead and guide the market in terms of what the psychological response will be you are seeing the market lockstep you are seeing it with not only what is coming out of the earnings but white house days like today reinforce that todays big selloff. Dan is joining us. Great to see you what was today all about, dan . Whats different today versus seven days ago not much. I think this is more of a sentiment driven selloff which is to be expected. I think we all knew coming to this part of the year uncertainty would be daunting. We listen to the experts that come on cnbc, we knew that cases would be picking up at a rapid clip coming into this part of the year the market is extrapolating daytoday very little news on vaccines, antibodies and, you know, the big uncertainties come down to covid and stimulus unfortunately for the market, both are going the wrong direction at least for the market in terms of the european lockdown, does that foreshadow the possibility that perhaps the u. S. Is headed in that direction or even if the u. S. Itself is not headed in that direction, that it will feel the hit economically from economies tilting in recession in europe yes, i think thats right i think Scott Gottlieb was on cnbc today talking about how europe is three weeks ahead of us the extent of the lockdowns, i think we will take a targeted approach but the reality is this pandemic and nature of the virus is self limiting there is already a seasonal poe nent component it will pick up. The more you recover, the more people are interacting, the more you have to step in to shut things down. It puts a cap on where peoples expectations can be for how fast we can recover, at least until we get past the winter dan, its karen thanks for being on. Would you wait for a specific level of the s p before you add to your positions in the market or would you buy right now we dont tend to be daytoday traders you look 6 to 12 months out, i think its a reasonable base case to assume that profits will be higher. I think you want to have stuff in your portfolio that will benefit from that recovery but i dont think we will get a lot of certainty in the next few months my personal view is rather than take most of the market has some sensitivity to fiscal stimulus or covid. There are areas of the market you can go where that exposure is less. China doesnt have a fiscal stimulus coming up and they dont have an outbreak of covid. You can have exposure to areas seeing recovery without these Market Driving trends. That, to me, at least for the near term is a bit of a better riskreward. Dan, its tim one of the things that will be part of the market setup is where we come from part of the recovery that happened off of march lows was not just policymakers rushing in, especially the fed, but we are seeing significant amounts of cash out there. Where do you think the market is now especially as we go into mega cap tech thursday where these have been the places to hide out i think overall it is a mixed story. Its hard to make the argument based on all of the data and sentiment that people are over the moon, but they are over the moon and bullish in certain areas of the market. These are the names you are talking about. Our view has been that what people dont realize is how incredibly berish it is to only be bullish on this handful of stocks those were the big winners during the covid crisis so their performance was justified. But as he would turn the corner, why would you own those names when you can see double and triple the Profit Growth over the next six months. I think thats where sentiment is misplaced for us we could continue to be under and wouldnt add i think a lot of people want to add on this weakness, but this is not the area we would add dan, thanks guy, i thought it was interesting. Think about how incredibly bearish it is to think about how many people are bullish about a very small piece of the market and if you listen to the great dan nathan, at risk reversal, he doesnt say it in those words, but mentions it all of the time. In one way, shape or form, we have talked about it there is a handful of names carrying the load. I know you are a huge abba fan yes, if that song comes on i turn it up and tomorrow is the waterloo for the market. I think you will get decent numbers. I think 40 might be a top end term and maybe tomorrow we get the bounce everybody wants coming up, the chart master. But first check out the after hours action for pintrest. Welcome back we have a busy earnings night for you with pintrest trading higher in after hours. A monster move for pintrest. Julia . Pintrest shares skyrocketing after beating expectations with revenue accelerating to 58 growth monthly active users also surpassing projections by 5 million. A total of 432 million internationals driving that user growth 46 increase there pintrest up about 29 in after hours trading. One thing about that user growth the company said they added 4 million global users who were looking for inspiration around apples operation upgrade. Pintrest indicating those users may be more likely to turn the companys increase in Fourth Quarter revenue which exceeded expectations of 35 in the Third Quarter. A particular strength from small and business advertisers and large advertisers. Also seeing benefit from their investment to bring shopping onto the platform. Pintrest saying it is benefiting from the ad boycott earlier this year. Its unclear how long that boost was and how long that boycott boost will last. But they see it as a longterm advantage. Thank you a preview of what we could expect from pintrest and snap. Guy, i know you follow pintrest closely. There is a lot to chew on in terms of upside. Kudos to rick heisman 340 million they deep to be international. Thats 21 cents per International User if they can figure it out better, they are off to the races. In the u. S. Its 1. 03 what is not to like. I am wrong all of the time, but this is one we got right this is not a bad playing given the environment to take some money off the table if you have had a ride on pintrest you should check out my pintrest page because it gets better by the day. Thats odd seeing as how you havent posted in years. You are right, thats very odd. Maybe its like wine, just age. Karen, the implication is that there is negative Brand Association with the likes of a facebook right i recognize that, but that revenue acceleration is in this quarter. The revenue acceleration for next quarter is phenomenal as a facebook owner, i am happy about that i think the pie is growing i am happy to see facebook down. We will see about earnings tomorrow and i think they will be good. Phil . The reason ford moved higher was because these were stronger earnings than expected in the Fourth Quarter in april production was shut down in north america and a good chunk of europe as well. And in the Third Quarter they beat the street earning 65 cents a share, well above expectation. Revenues stronger than expected. Truck and suv demand its not just ford, people want struks and suv look what is going on when you try to buy an f150. This is a company that has not done well when it comes to execution over the last several years. Break even to a loss of 500 million. That may be disappointing to some people, but keep in mind they have three vehicle launches coming up in the Fourth Quarter, they have the new bronco and well as the mach se. Jim on the Conference Call said we are planning on doing that in the spring one last note regarding jim farley having listened to these going back to the hackett area, different with jim farley, night and day. He said we have weaknesses and this is what we are going to address. There is a clear plan for wall street it is night and day in terms of the tone of the call itself. Phil, thank you phil lee beau in chicago should ford get rerated with the new ceo . Thats great reporting by phil because i think he is hitting on key things especially with the newly designed f150 which is the most profitable model of any car in north america by any auto maker. And the ford bronco, which is probably a 2022 story. Its very exciting the fact they are doing their best in european operations, and really doing their best to get out of them. The year over year Third Quarter revenue was something that was not expected to be positive. It was up 3 coming up, a lot more earnings coming our way. Power traders are setting up for those megareports. And one big rkwahemaettcr says we are entering into a perfect storm. We will explain when we come back welcome back to fast money. If you are just joining us, it was a major selloff the dow, s p and nasdaq tumbling lets bring in jonathan golub. You think a perfect storm is coming this has to do with covid getting worse. What do you for sooe if you take a look in the u. S. , we have gone from 25,000 cases per day to 75,000, a trimming tripling of cases. This is before we started gathering for thanksgiving and christmas. Before daylight savings time and harder for us to get outside if this was by itself it may not be a problem, but it is quite clear that not only once we have a fiscal deal to bail out Small Companies to bail out people before election day, we are not going to get this until after inauguration day, so those wont be available until february or march. That means if we see some economic hit, the safety net has been taken away. I am not saying this will play out in a worst case because i dont think it will. But in the near term the risk is to the downside. Europe is acknowledging that their numbers are picking up more than the u. S. And they needed to take action which arent as bad as we saw in march or april, but they were directionally in that direction and that really spooked the market and rightfully so in terms of what is going on in europe, jonathan, lets suppose that here in the United States things are steady eddie in terms of the increase in positive cases could the hit from europe, could that impact what we are seeing here in the u. S. In terms of our economic recovery . Sure. First of all, if everything i dont think we are going to have a huge dichotomy between everything is perfectly fine in the u. S. And things are rougher in europe, but if you look at part of the reason we have had this cyclical success over the past ten months and you have seen the bonds having risen. It was because we are seeing better numbers out of china. If you take all of europe numbers combined, much more important economically than china alone. There is a belief that the fed will somehow save us because of the lack of fiscal stimulus do you believe that . When people ask me the question, i say lets assume you are a Small Business and cant pay your bills and you have to go bankrupt, how important will it be that the feds are going to buy another 100 billion of tenured treasury they say i dont care. If i cant pay my bills, i cant pay my bills having the Banking System healthy has worked well, but without support for the Small Business and the guy who may lose their job, the fed system will have very little impact in the shorter term longer term may be different you mention the Small Business we want to touch on the market versus economy what will it take for that small and Medium Business to get an uplift less bipartisan fighting i am not going to put words in your mouth. What will it take to see what has been let me spin your question a different way. Why have Big Companies been able to hold on when the small guy has had a tougher time much if you think about things that have happened in our personal life. You cant go to the gym so maybe you buy a peleton. You are stuck at home so you are buying a laptop because you have to work from home. You are fixing up your garden and you go to a Home Improvement store to buy things. Those are big cap names. If you then say who has been hurt, the local dry cleaners, the carwash, your local restaurant it is somewhat random and unfortunate that this bifurcation is not about what is the fed doing and the like it really is

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