North carolina, and ohio whether we will get a clear result tonight remains to be seen the tenyear note level higher than since early june. Banks among the best performing stocks in the dow and the s p. Oil prices are gaining ground but the Energy Sector is the only in the red. Overall a broad based strong day on wall street. Following gains yesterday as well lets get straight to the big stories we are watching. Mike santoli is here watching the market rally. And ylan moi is following the all important balance of power in the senate for us mike santoli, welcome. Good twoday run in the markets. It is inhabiting the ground we were in the last half of last week and gone right to the middle 3,400 is the middle of the long threemonth range. If you think about it it has taken two days to lift the indexes back onto a balanced footing. We were pretty oversold last week challenged and tested the september lows bounced off of that today. Make sure folks are not leaning too much in one direction as opposed to urgent buying in one election outcome or anything else here is the call weighted s p 500 versus the s p 500 itself. This is when mega caps were dominating the ultimate peak of the margaret, september 2nd. You see a jagged attempt at higher lows, higher highs. We will see if we can break out of it. It seems to be geared towards things that signal a better economy. The tenyear levels. We are almost at this level from june 8th when it was over. 9 . Is it strictly an economic call, stimulus, about Market Makers not being able to take the other side a lot of those narratives out there. Unclear if we have got an escape velocity fortressry yields everything is grinding in the direction of handicapping a better economic environment, whether thats true or not or election dependent or not. The election has been a shortterm factor. The other is rising cases and the reminder of what it can lead to, economic lockdowns in europe and the market seemingly slug both of those factors off. Is that because hopes for a stimulus are slightly up again the stimulus hovers out there on the horizon interestingly you are seeing the pure shutdown stocks underperform, zoom and those name it seems like the margaret is not concerned about a long lasting lockdown one thing is in the u. S. Probably not going to be a wholesale lockdown we have seen it works and that you can bring cases down over time if you take these measures. I think the argument is perhaps the market is attempting to look through it although, you know, there have been haid head fakes before in this direction i would point to early june as one of those where we had the very same dynamics and then the summer surge happened and it unwound. Mike, thank you we will see you in just a few moments lets bring in phil camp rely from jp morgan for more on todays market moves whats driving the optimism thats boosting groups like industrials to the top and testry yields to fivemonth highs . Sara, good to be with you guys again one of the things that really focusing on are the signal thats coming from financial conditions what are financial conditions . Financial conditions are things like Corporate Credit spreads, Interest Rates, also volatility, sara i think what the mark has been saying, this week especially, yesterdays rally and today, is that if you can remove this giant uncertainty that the world has been waiting for since fwhoef 3rd, that introduces another tail wind to financial conditions i think tenyear treasury rates michael mentioned this. Tenyear treasury rates are basically at the highest level that we have seen post the march period and thats telling us that there is no boogie man in the bond market there is no real sinister message come from fixed income and moreover, its one where we see this continued expansion happening along with eventual fiscal policy that keeps rates up at these levels so we are very pleased to see tenyear treasury rates close to 90 basis points right now. That is additive the our view. What level of rates, phil, starts to hurt certain sectors because of their valuations . And are you worried about that occurring . Yeah, wilfred, thats a great question you know, the last cycle we had to answer this as well because every time rates from buttoning up against 3 which locks like another universe from here we were getting that question wilfred, its all about the speed that rates move higher thats whats really disconcerting. If we see what we have seen over the past couple of weeks which is really a grind higher in rates thats a good signal there is no one single rate that the economy cant withstand. A lot of people are talking about 1 at the top of the range. I am not sure if i would necessarily agree with that. We would be concerned if rates unhinged on the back end and caused a tightening of financial conditions quickly Something Like the taper tantrum. Thats not your base case in this economy post election. Whats your favorite sector right now, phil, given the uncertainties out there, also some of the optimism out there as you suggest that we are seeing from the kple and from the credit market . Yeah. Thats a gu question first of all, on picked Income Credit is important. Thats a big part of the view here you need less to go right for credit to work n. A muddle through environment or in a strong growth environment credit goes well. Specific to equity sara if we are right about this Global Recovery story that really takes hold in 2021, the growth versus value outperformance that has considered in a historical way this year drive by a lot of those mega cap tech stocks we would expect that to close somewhat in 2021 you know, those value stocks that have not kept up with the big tech names, maybe you could see a closing of that. Thats the way we are positioned we are a little bit more balanced on the growth value position if we are right about the story for each trickle higher and we really do get escape velocity over the next segment we would except overgrowth. We are not jumping into that trade just yet but we would expect that. Phil, thank you for joining us. Okay. The president ial race is taking up a lot of the oxygen today but the battle for congress could have big implications for your money also ylan moi has the latest on what to look out for on that. Democrats are betting they can regape the majority by running to the middle. In Competitive Senate races across the country they are challenging republicans with moderate candidates who have already come out against ideas like medicare for all and expanding the Supreme Court. Kansas is one example. The democrat on that ticket used to be a republican she switched parties in 2018 while serving in the state legislature because she said that mrlly the party was not going where we are compass resides. She is slipping against congressman marshal for that seat but the race is tighter than expected. Meanwhile in colorado hickenlooper is widely expected to beat corey gardner. Hickenlooper is against the Green New Deal and critics say he has flipflopped on fracking. You have to Pay Attention not just to which party wins the elections but who the candidates are because even if there is a blue wave democrats could end up with a relatively centrist caucus. Ylan, how detailed has the polling been when it comes to how people plan to vote lower down the ticket. Even if you do get trump disillusions republicans what is the expectation they might split their ticket and still vote republican in the senate the polling has been strong in some of the senate races because they are competitive we have done our own polling with change research or this as well and shown a similar tine mick that is the bet some of the candidates are making. There are, theically in the suburbs, particularly among woman some voters who have been turned off by President Trumps tone, his style, sub of the substance of his policies and are looking for an alternative that is giving some democrats who are running below joe biden on the ticket a boost as well n. Some cases some of these Democratic Candidates are even running ahead of joe biden in the polls. Ylan moi thanks so much for that all crucial factors to be watching out for tonight for your money and the markets the markets by the way at the moment slipping a fraction, down to only 500 points higher on the dow, having been up 688. Still ahead much more on the market rally as we await Election Results plus an etf on pace for its best day since march. We will ask an analyst which fund should be on your radar you are watching closing bell on cnbc. See yourself. Welcome back to the mirror. And know youre not alone. Because this. Come on jesse, one more . Is a reflection of an unstoppable community. In the mirror. Welcome back health care moving higher today with anthem and mckesson among the biggest winners. The group slightly underperforming the Broader Market since President Trump was elected in 2016. Up 25 compared to the s p 500 rallying 58 for more on how this election could Impact Health care stocks, jared holtz. First broad question, if its possible to simplify it this much, which president which candidate as president will be better for health care as a whole . Good afternoon, thanks a lot for having me. We have done a lot of thinking about this i actually think that a biden presidency would be better for health care than trump becaused on, you know, some of the work weve done, what we believe to be his core underlying policies, and given the fact that the aca in our mind is the biggest risk, biggest impediment facing health care and the Supreme Court which is going the hear this case against next week that seems to be the biggest risk than anything biden has planned for it at this point. The aca being rolled back i think is what you mean what are the chances of a biden president sy immediately expanding Health Care Coverage it seems thats priority number one everything he said about the Health Care Industry and his plans for evolving the landscape over the next few years has been pinpointed on expanding medicare, medicaid coverage to, you know, many more patients who are still without insurance now. I think if we take that and view that as being factual, to me thats very significant for health care. I think health care as a sector performs fairly well under a Biden Administration the only negative this we really heard i am not sure you can call it that is this idea of a public option potentially taking business away from the publicly traded managed Care Companies over time. Still given where we are with covid19 and all the challenges that thats presented it diplomat seem like thats a near term head wind for the industry. Last time around, jared, whenever Hillary Clinton spoke the Drug Companies would fall because of threats there to crackdown on rising prices we have seen President Trump trying to tackle the issue, too, through executive orders th i am not sure anything came of it. Is that issue no longer a threat for this industry in is it on the back burner because we need these companies so badly in the fight against covid . It is a great question. I think the drug pricing as sort of a backdrop or as topic we are going to have to content with from here until the end of time i dont think that this drug pricing story or narrative goes away that being said, yes, to your point we have already gotten such a significant amount of pressure by the Trump Administration and the executive orders would be one example of dramatic pricing pressure evolving in health care, especially when it comes to pharmaceuticals and Biotech Companies i would doubt that a Biden Administration has anything up their sleeve thats all that much worse. Certainly i think the noise factor around health care under a Biden Administration will be less significant i dont think tweets will sort of rule the day as it has, you know, with health care, over the past few years. What about pricing around specifically vaccines and Treatment Options from covid is that going to be taken over by the federal government . Therefore are these Companies Going to be pressured even though they are coming out with these Game Changing innovations . The government has already back stopped most of these companies. The amount of money they invested behind multiple pramts has been very significant. You have seen billions of dollars that have been put into these companies as far as ever inning, research and development, procure men or vaccines that are not even approved i think there has been a significant relationship between the government and these companies thats been forged over the past few months which is fairly significant. And it my wind up taking pressure, you know, off of the companies in the pharmaceutical industry Going Forward to the extent that these vaccines work and they winds up being effective at treating the population so i think there is probably a link between the government and these companies that did not exist prepandemic, which might actually be helpful. Jared, if there is some electionrelated weakness in your sector over the next couple of days what are your kind of top picks regardless of election outcome . For sure, i am trying to stay with what i believe are solid good Growth Companies over the near to medium term that have you know, that demonstrate that type of profile. You know i would stick with some of the med device names, some of the diagnostic names i would use some of the weak innocence pharma to go after a pfizer or a merck on any significant weakness i think abbott labs as far as a company in diagnostics, Garden Health and catalan, which you mentioned earlier, all of those have the profile investors are going to look for if indeed there is weakness to be had here. Jerr holtz thank you for joining us. We have got more than 500, a 42point rally right now for the dow. Dont miss cnbcs election coverage tonight 7 00 p. M. Eastern and continuing all night long we have 40 minutes to go here before the closing bell. Consumer, financials and Consumer Discretionary the cop three performing sectors after the break, joe biden headed into election day with a sizable lead in the polls. But the betting markets are showing a much tighter race. We are going look at what the big money is being spent on in that market, what those wagers tell us, and how traders are using the data next. Later, former defense secretary leon panetta here to aneak down what the election mes for Foreign Policy and much more. S p up 1. 7 . With this seal, this restaurant is committing to higher levels of cleanliness. The expertise that helps keep hospitals clean, is helping keep businesses clean too. Look for the ecolab science certified seal. Under 40 minutes of left dow is up 540 points the final nbc youth news wall street journal poll showing a 10 lead among voters for joe biden. But the betting markets are showing a closer race. Leslie picker has more the polls are giving President Trump about a 10 chance of reelection. The political betting market known as predict it has his odds upwards of 40 although it is declining today. We asked predict its ceo why there is such a big gap. We are not asking people what do you want to have happen we dont care about that had we care about is what do you think is going to happen what do you think is going to happen sufficiently that you are willing to put a little bit of money on the line to back up that conviction. Predict it says their markets are accurate about 80 of the time a notable miss was the 2016 election which gave trump a 20 to 35 chance of wing. Of course most polls also indicated Hillary Clinton the clear winner in 2016 still much of wall street is turning to the political stock market predict it to help inform the strads they make on other financial markets. Guys. Leslie, we talked a little bit about this in brexit, i remember, not just the 2016 election the growing gap between the polls and the betting odds why is it happening . Who is generally right it is a good question what they would say it predicted is when people are putting their money on the line it speaks to a different type of psychology what he said in the sound byte we we just played, what you think will happen versus what you want to happen speaks to a different psychology in your answer they talk about the efficiency of the inputs and how up so much volume, so many trades, especially in a market like the 2020 election, where there is just a tremendous amount of attention and people really wanting to take certain bets on this one that you get so much more you know, you get more inputs than you would in certain polls that you would have. And polls require a certain amount of kind of scientific diligence in order the conduct those. The betting market is a free market you have a buy father outcome, a group of people looking to make trades thats why you see different results especially as it pertains to the 2020 election. Of course you cant directly extrapolate probabilities of outcomes just from polls, but, clearly, they are linked to the odds the interesting thing, leslie, compared to 2016 on this and while everyone is trying to work out if the polls were wrong again, is that the sort of clinton size of lead is being discounted in the polls if you look at individual states like for example, florida where biden does have a lead in the polls. Trump is still ds odds on favorite in the betting market so there is actually a level of discount of what happened in 2016 into the 2020 numbers its just this time around, bidens lead on a National Level for example, is more like double digit p