Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240711 : v

CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report July 11, 2024

Materials, industrials hitting new intradays. The small caps doing well. The russell 2,000 at the far right side of your screen. Jim, i want to know where you think we are now you have great vaccine news. Its consistently great. Were not that far from 30,000 on either day we have headwind tailwind. Each day you can make a tailwind case i can make a tailwind case that you have to buy the airlines right now. This norwegian cruise deal is done, you want to buy that group. I can make a case that you have to buy the stay at homes, the deep cyclicals, a case for the technology stocks. This is what weve looked for. Thats why i came in gunning for the armageddonists theres a fabulous piece out that covid did not rescue the armageddonists from underperformance and purgatory its time to call them out im asking all the panelists to call out the people who said it was the end of the world call them out. Well, weve gotten great vaccine news it sounds like to me youre saying you can still buy the cramer covid index and i can still buy the cramer ghost stocks. Thats exactly what im saying the idea that its a false dichotomy. Ive got plenty of cloud stocks working incredibly well because people recognize that the cloud is still the answer. Listen, bill gates this morning talked about how people arent going to go back on planes a lot of these companies are about that a lot of companies have come in ingrained in the american way of life i think theyre not going to go out. And then ive got to the only theory that right now i think could hurt the market is one that Graham Allison proposed in a really interesting article in the atlantic in july trump may not relinquish power you were talking about that earlier this morning do you really think that thats a risk that investors need to consider does he impress you as someone who thinks theres such a thing as the hook . Have you read his tweets i have. I mean, have i to tell you, if i were biden, i mean, i would say, i need a recount. I think im losing can anyone any one of you people, can you create a scenario where President Trump says shakes bidens hand and says, good luck. No. But that doesnt mean hes not going to leave office. Why just because those norms are not going to take place. Look, im trying to play devils advocate i think i think the market, steph, has been too complacent about this issue like jim. Weve been talking about it on this show. You have two universes you have a universe in which biden was elected president and another universe where the current president doesnt think he lost. And the market has been able to brush past all of that until when, steph . This is 2020. This is what were living through. Im not even sure what is important in terms of the presidency its more important of congress. If congress is a mix, and it looks like its going to be, but that is the key to me because a mix means gridlock as an investor, i want gridlock. I dont want massive policy shifts either way. So, i have to say this market has been resilience because slowly but surely visibility is improving. Yes, progress on the vaccines for sure also on the economy, you know i always list a couple of data points today we got Single Family starts the best since 2007. Yesterday nhab was the best on record retail sales slower. That is progress on earnings, 85 of the Companies Beat earnings. They sound more confident. They sounded so much more confident that theyre doing m a at record paces. M a was up 100 year over year good risk assets and more cyclical than the stayathomes only because the valuations are so depressed i fully expected when we were going to have this conversation that you may suggest that the cramer covid index was about to go on the shelf. The vaccine news is fabulous yes, we have to get across the bridge, so to speak, from here to there, but maybe it is time to start looking at those reopen ams. There are two components trumping everything. Theres the stayathome and then the workathome and i think theyre very different i think when we get a vaccine, we will go out and about, but were going to buy cars. Steph loves cars we are going to be building new places, new homes. Thats nothing changed there many of the covid index are lets put them derivative of zoom or roku were going to hang out. We are not going back to the way we used to be and you guys all know, judge, its cheaper for companies to not have them come back and not go away and not have the three martin any lunches and get on planes, stay at luxury places, four seasons where its fabulous and i love it thats over. Jon najarian, there are things that are going to stay in vogue. There are peloton, crowdstrikes, some other things that have just become a way of life are not going to disappear just because you have a vaccine and you get a shot in the arm. Is that right . Do you agree with that well come back to john. See, he doesnt. We have to work on jons audio which is almost an everyday problem joe, take that same question, please i think you left out one name and thats docusign. I could have gone down the list i stopped. Your points well taken. No, but theres a reason i mention docusign because i think docusign is an example of what i would call an emerging growth stock thats not going away. Theres been this paradigm and theres incredible, scaleable value in docusign. Thats not going away. I think there are select stocks that will stay with us for the duration and that you could still own. Look, what jim and steph are talking about is this broadening out in the market. If you study the s p 500, scott, 90 of the s p stocks are above their 200day moving average we have not seen that kind of broadening out strength since 2014 the move of the market in the last several days seems to be much calmer. Volatility continues to decline. And i think what were seeing is a representation that it does not have to be binary. It does not have to be all growth or all value that can be a blend to both. Yes, false dichotomy. Thats right and that is what is bugging me i think people say, you know what, it cant be growth and value at the same time thats just not true you have all these new buyers. Lets call them robin hood they like things they are going to be buyers of boeing we all knew boeing was going to get approved they were like, wow, boeing. I have to buy boeing they just kind of like the thing, too im going, come on jim. What . Jim, i think theres a big difference between cyclicals and value stocks i really do. Cyclical means youre going to benefit from the economy reopening, getting better. These companies have cut costs so dramatically, the operating leverage is enormous thats not to say i dont want to own secular stocks because we talk about this endlessly. We talk about this all the time. Cyclicals are a little different than value some of them are in the value sectors but cyclicals are the ones you want to own if you think the economy is going to recovery and profits are going to recover someone downgraded honeywell today. What is the point of that . Do you know on october 12th i recommended ford versus gm they were at seven look at those two stocks ford and ge, those are the two biggest robin hood names how smart are those people jon najarian, can you hear us i hear you loud and clear, scott. Welcome to the conversation well, thank you, sir. Certainly zoom and a lot of those countries are going to do extraordinarily well still that doesnt mean their stocks will do as well. Its exactly what jenny was saying the other day its like kleenex, like xerox. Zoom has certainly done that, scott. Can i say that that valuation deserves the sort of endorsement it got during the covid shutdown i cannot for that reason i think the Company Continues to do well and they innovate but i think the valuation comes in line with more of the rest of the market, scott. As that happens, forgetting about just putting aside the competition from google and microsoft and all the rest, log me in and all the rest, i think youre going to see the valuations come down even though the companies do very well. Some of them already have jim, you have teledoc on tonight. Zoom is down 30. Zoom was at 50 times sales. There are some stocks that got overheat i know thats absolutely true. There are other Companies Like teledoc resting. Too Many Companies are in the teledoc business theyre not just that anymore. Theyre also how to beat diabetes, how to cope with diabetes, how to cope with hypertension they have done a lot to make them thin med. Fintech never quit how about thin med, what do you think . Obviously the trend is there. Valuations are pretty high you have to either stick with them, stay patient, own them for the long hall or be prudent. You taught me, trim a little bit here when they pull back then you can reload, if you will. Med tech, thin med, anything health care at this point is also very, very attractive the most the yesterday we had the bottom fall out because of pill pack is anyone here willing to step up and say walgreens, cvs or even good rs buys . Anybody . You know who is standing up and saying health care is a really good buy right now, besides costen and you are Warren Buffett and the buys at berkshire hathaway, but what about health care, jim, as a space to look at i have to go with these valuations i remember when bill clinton went to the ceo decided merck was worth a whole lot less and the industry was going to be crushed. We are in a period where people think this industry is going to be crushed mckesson is distributing the vaccine. Mckesson is integral to the Health Care System i dont think thats a mistake to buy i think thats a really interesting stock. I think its hated look at united health. See that go up yesterday i want hated i like hated joe completely agree. Technology is coming for health care in terms of disruption. Its the next sector in which you will see price transparency, which is clearly missing in the sector day like today, thermo fisher. Down significantly i think its down 15 pressing towards its 50day moving average. I would step in, buy it there and i just might do it myself later on in the day. I agree with jim health care provides a tremendous opportunity when looking at growth and value. I think the Health Care Story, unfortunately, was misplaced earlier in the year. It was all about biotechs. Theres way more to the Health Care Story and that along with the industrial sector, i think, is going to benefit from technology jon najarian, you have the action i agree. The largest maker of vaccines in the world, scott, isnt any of the names we talked about its not pfizer. Its not ma determi moderna its glaxosmithkline when they put together more of these vaccines than anyone, thats where the rubber are meets the road the creation of the vaccine, my hats off to them were all rooting for it then its the delivery of it and so forth these are the kinds of companies, glaxosmithkline, sanofi, these are the guys that actually get it out there, scott, in the sorts of doses that are in the if you need a booster shot, 30 billion doses because were talking in the neighborhood of 15 billion folks need this and that second booster shot and so forth to carry them on. I think those are stocks that have not been talked about enough they deserve some as well. Like joe said, not just the biotechs some big pharmas do the heavy lifting. I want to get back to Something City of said earlier as we have this conversation about the transition and how messy it feels right now and how messy it could still become, there are several weeks between now and january 20th, lets assume just for this conversations sake that the transition happens that we have a transition. I know how far fetched that seems to have a conversation about that. And then you get back to a goldilocks scenario. A biden president , maybe a republican senate, under that scenario you have no tax hikes, the likes of which biden was talking about. You have spending but not huge the likes of which biden was talking about so you dont have rates going crazy. You have the fed all in. You have the vaccine coming down the pike thats great for stocks. The only thing youre missing is a stimulus package, which is driving us both nuts i do think the only thing that first of all, i agree with that scenario the question is, are we anticipating that scenario is so much of that in the market i would say when you see stocks go down that reported great numbers like walmart and home depot, youre already getting a chance to buy them again why . Because those declines are presuming that the comparisons next year are going to be too hard i dont think so i think a lot of these Companies Like brian cornel said today, they have picked up a giant amount of allegiance i think these companies have wiped out a lot of Smaller Companies because theres no stimulus i hate to say this, but i think congress has doomed so Many Companies. The president has doomed so Many Companies. Youre going to get walmart, its amazon, its target, its costco, its home depot. I still think lowes i dont think lowes is a sale here thats who won they dont have credit lines they cant keep up theyre the empty support front to the country i think thats a terrible thing but nothing to do with the stock market its shameful its shameful. The lack of stimulus is shameful jamie dimon cites, quote unquote, childish behavior on the part of politicians its shameful. I dont know how to put it. Hes not ashamed. He doesnt play for dinner tell us the truth. Its incredibly frustrating steph, go ahead im sorry i still think we will get a fiscal package, we just dont know the size or the timing. It is shameful for sure. I wanted to say one thing about what jim said about the winners. Theres also a coincidence they have invested heavily, aggressively not only in the past year but the last five to seven years and they took it on the chin think about a year ago what brian cornel had to do he had to slash costs and change their mix and make changes and get the right products in the stores that goes to all the companies you talked about the one you mentioned. This is a terrible, terrible environment for the smaller players but the big guys stepped up thats why theyre doing so well because theyre now actually able to outperform in profits, in sales, in margins and market share. Youre absolutely right i visited with brian cornel in flatbush neighborhood. It was booming he chose to be bold. He was bold everywhere remember when everyone said, you cant do the small formats that works then were not even talking 5g, which is why dupont can be a good stock we have so many secular themes are terrific that i cant just write this market off after this big run. Im not going to be one of these armageddonists holy cow im not going to name any of them one time i was on the judges show and i named them and im not doing that this time i am ten bears and i come in peace. You raise an interesting point. Its hard to be negative given the reasons i laid out and what pfizer and moderna have told us over the last ten days theres so much optimism around that then its like the economy and the issue jim raises about lack of stimulus, its why you can be positive the market and negative on the economy and the heartbreaking side of this pandemic which continues to impact so many millions of people exactly right were going to see some sort of stimulus its unlikely georgia flips, its likely to be much smaller even than what was offered in august nonetheless, you have to dance with what you got. The market youve got, not the market you wish for. When i look at jims winners and why theyre so successful, the big invested like steph said and are set up for this. Also, they created new categories they did it off amazon because when walmart adopts the equivalent of a costco or sams club except with delivery and target does the same thing, that makes those clients even stickier, scott. We knew that was coming. We talked about it this week they approved it how many more Digital Sales did they get they blew it out those are going to be the stickiest customers because they paid that annual fee, just like when you go to costco and pay that annual fee. Youre going to go back there. In the case of these, you dont have to go they bring it to you theyve made it so much easier i think, scott, were going to continue to see that play out over the next weeks and months and i think the surprise could be if the stimulus ends up being instead of 500 billion or shy of 1 trillion, maybe its nudging over 1 trillion, thats the surprise were not anticipating anything in the 2 trillion or 3 trillion this whole conversation has me thinking about the banks. Without stimulus, youve got all of these smaller businesses that are at risk of failing, which is a weight on the banks. You have, who knows, the possibility of bigger businesses getting in trouble the prospect of economic turnaround happening faster maybe pushed down the road, which is not good for the banks. Rates stay low the stock market can go up in that environment but the banks cannot thats right. Look, First Horizon is a fantastic bank based in memphis tennessee. It has an amazing ceo. They have an incredible record and it doesnt matter because people have decided they have bad loans. They are conservative lender 4. 8 that gets left behind. I had a company on last night. Its symbol is ride Lordstown Motors they have nothing but they have hope they have hope they have an interesting pick up people come in and they buy that the younger people never seem to run out of money robin hood on tomorrow night theyre going to become public they buy things that are they researched them and say, this is a great new thing. I dont know how you fight them. You dont know how you fight the specs and the 5gers, and fight the urban to suburban and fight the new ways people do business, docusign, joe. Theres just a lot that works. Now its the oils. Its been pretty remarkable, the moves. Look, there are parts of the economy that are struggling. We talked about it travel, leisure, hospitality some banks will have exposure to those industries and its not going to be pretty its all the reason why we need a fiscal stimulus to help these parts of the economy and other parts are doing quite well housing, auto, several areas within manufacturing, parts of the consumer are doing well and, oh, by the way, theyre saving at record level at 14 versus historic 5 . The consumer has some spending power. I only own a few of them wait, wait. City of, you added to Morgan Stanley. You added to the banks at the same time a Warren Buffett is bailing on almost everything except for bank of america and your old pal cramer, i dont hear him too

© 2025 Vimarsana