The s p and dow. Nasdaq gains which it saw on friday. For the nasdaq and s p and russell 2000, it was the worst month in the year. For the s p and nasdaq with the dow slumping 3 . Nasdaq down 5. 8 for the month. Treasuries is the big picture. This is why we see the weakening. Treasury markets are picking up. 10year is now 4. 74 . The 2year treasury is up at 5. 11 . Mortgage prices are ticking higher. If you want a 30year fixed mortgage, you are looking at 8 . Check out the price of crude oil. Crude oil prices with energy back on the rise. Up to 91. 50 for wti. Brent at 93 a barrel. Joe talked about bitcoin. Picking up to 28,300. Up 4. 4 . Joe, the reason behind this is because gary gensler etf comments. I saw any Government Shutdown would delay any consideration for the spot etfs that everyone wants. Because the s. E. C. Staff would have been out and nothing gets approved. Does that mean i think they are thinking about it. They have been thinking about it check your watch. Thats a big move. Andrew has asked why is it at 26. It could be 30. Talking about the Government Shutdown. It was averted over the weekend. The bill provides temporary relief. Emily wilkins has been working the phones all weekend. Whats going on . Reporter andrew, congress was able to keep the government funded over the weekend after Kevin Mccarthy did a 180 agreeing to work with democrats to pass a stop gap measure in te 11th hour. This continues the funding at current levels until november 17th and has 16 billion in Disaster Relief funding. It doesnt include ukraine or funding for the southern border. Chuck schumer took to the senate floor and vowed that he would be trying to move forward on funding for ukraine. This is a bridge cr. Temporary solution. Not the final destination. We will not stop fighting for more economic and Security Assistance for ukraine. Majorities in both parties support ukraine aid and doing more is vital for americas security and democracy around the world. Reporter mccarthy said any funding for ukraine in the house needs to be paired with policies that limit immigration at the border. Further complicating this debate, mccarthy is facing a treat to the speakership. Representative gaetz is frustrated that mccarthy turned to democrats for the stopgap bill for the funding. Democratic house leaders have not said if they will back the republican counterpart, but in a statement this weekend, they encourages them to vote on the aid for ukraine. A lot of dynamics here. Emily, thank you. What are you thinking . Im thinking we need to talk before we talk about who is going to be on. Heres what im thinking. Mccarthy wanted to pass something that the republicans had no chance in the senate. Like the last, he could say i passed. This come to the table. Guess who blocked any possibility of that . The same guys. The same guys blocked that. Then when thats blocked, he has no other choice. He does this. Then they are mad about this. They say you cant do this. We know what these guys are doing. Bidens number one issue calling gaetz his favorite republican. The speaker has to promise something for a vote. That weakens his stance and the Republican Party. The journal calls these guys jacovins. I looked it up. These are people during the french revolution. The most radical group that isi ushered in the theres about eight of them. I dont know how this happens. They would say were principled and this and that. Were spending too much. It is all true. Matt gaetz doesnt like Kevin Mccarthy. For a lot of reasons. Thats neither here nor there. In divided government, you have to figure out a way to do something. If some compromise as distasteful as it is, for republicans who want to cut spending, that is the way it is if you dont have the white house or senate. Do you want a government or not . Im going to hold my breath or blow the whole place up. There is this movement to potentially oust gaetz. Ethics committee. Mccarthy will probably lose four. The question becomes are eight or nine. Andy biggs and matt rose. Ricky gervais Hakeem Jeffrie important person. Call off the impeachment hearings . Ukraine. Ukraine funding. It was pointed out by Congress Member from florida and it helps democrats by weakening mccarthy further. The question is who would replace mccarthy . A year ago, steve scalise. He is fighting illness. You have the impeachment thing or another budget. I dont know. The reason you see yields higher this morning on the tenyear is because this gets us down to november 17th. There are a lot of questions as to what happens. It is a huge surprise that Kevin Mccarthy was able to avert a shutdown. I talked to him last week with. I knew it was the only choice. The only thing. Andrew, there is a Company Royal a. Spelled differently . You dont know. I think you can say it. How about asshat . That is code word for the full. It doesnt mean anything. You use it in place. Thats why i dont think you can use it. Its cable. Its cable. I know. We got bernstein coming. Exactly. From the white house. We have that. 8 00 hour. Bottoms up. Middle out. Repeat after me. Bottoms up. Middle out. Right. California governor gavin newsom will appointed Laphonza Butler to fill the seat of senator feinstein. In california, the governor has the power to appointed a senator to serve until the next regularly scheduled statewide general election in 2024. He said he was going to appoint a black woman. That is in keeping with that promise. The United Auto Workers and big three are still talking following the expansion of targeted strikes. Uaw president shawn fain telling members on saturday not to let messages from ford, gm and stellantis get them to give up the fight for justice. Fain making the comments while meeting with workers outside the stellantis plant in ohio. The auto workers are trying to create doubt with the carmakers. Bill ackman gettin apprppror s sparc. It is not clear that elon musk is alolooking for a deal with h. Other companies that would work with sparc is mature unicorns. We will speak with bill ackman at 8 00 a. M. It is the return of the spac. This is a different model. This came after the spac. The spac that would merge are universal and blocked by the s. E. C. He ended up buying that universal stake for his own fund. There were the rights that came with that which were different than the previous generation of spacs. This is approve by the s. E. C. We will see what he buys. He has a lot of money burning a hole in his pocket. Did he get to save that or give it back . He gave the money back. There were interesting warrants which we will talking about which lead to this moment and can he go buy a big business. The question is what business does he buy . Pe company . He threw out the idea that one day could elon musk take x public without going through the public issues . That was the benefit of spac. I argue the problem with spac and they didnt go through the issues and this is worthy because we learned so many went public and probably shouldnt have. We will talk more about that. The comments he made about x. You do a deal with x and the question is the price. Is that more or less than elon purchased . We should discuss with bill. There is a vote that has to happen. You have to vote in to the whole thing. I dont think at this moment that anybody is buying x for 44 billion. The question is are you buying for 22 billion or 11 billion or 5 billion . You do a deal with anybody and it is a question of price. This is him throwing out the idea. No elon. Nobody is talking to each other. It would be illegal for them to be talking to each other at this point. No discussions. When you see the headlines about ackman interested in x. He is interested. Dont get excited yet. Maybe well get excited about talking to bill about it. We talked so long. We cant talk about beyonce. That started what could be a trend. I was watching last night. The jets game . Taylor swift . Watching travis kelce. Afterwards. Maybe i could. It comes naturally. Did you see the ads for the movie . Phenomenal. Smart marketing placement. 2 45 for taylor. Movie chains can now make movies, but also studios can now own right. The antitrust department guy from the Trump Administration and he pushed for more competition and more competition like this. I cant believe amc is in the drivers seat with beyonce. Amazing. You can talk about it. You want to tell people what you are talking about . Beyonce is not going to let taylor be the only box office queen. The makers of the concert film of beyonces renaissance world is in talk with amc. They are not commenting and taylor swifts movie is hitting screens on october 13th. The film is expected to top 100 million the weekend it opens. Nobody wants to run against movies. Its crazy. It is crazy. Crazy that taylors father im like forrest gump. Rick brings up a question. Thats in the history book. Very strange. More squawk box in just a moment. Announcer this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. Visit bairddifference. Com. What do you see on the horizon . Uncertainty . Or opportunity. Whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined Risk Management are needed most. Drawing on deep expertise across the worlds public and private markets in pursuit of longterm returns. Pgim. Our investments shape tomorrow today. Rated m for mature. An xfinity rewards special offer. Xfinity customers, join xfinity rewards and get your early access code to the play the call of duty modern warfare iii open beta. Early Access Begins on october 6th. First on playstation. Visit xfinity. Com rewards. Futures right now indicated in the red on the dow. The nasdaq and s p continue to move higher. Initially there is a warm and fuzzy feeling for the government to stay open. It didnt last long. Lets bring in our next guest. This is out of the way. Temporarily. Now we can back door the other things we have been worrying about. One thing we can none of us live forever. You can avoid death for a while, but it is eventually coming. If you have a soft landing, it doesnt mean there is not recession. Soft landings only last until the next recession. That is a point you make. Thats right. We are releasing our guidance to talk to clients. The main topic we are getting is can the u. S. Avoid recession forever . The answer is no. The good news, it seems to us, the higher odds of the soft landing the next 12 months doesnt mean there are recession risks. It is elevated with 20 recession odds. That means to us that the Third Quarter is the high watermark for growth. From here we slow down and see risks building. The shutdown, it seems, has been avoided for 45 days. We are still talking about it this month. We go back to paying Student Loans and elevated Interest Rates. We do expect a softening of the growth pace. Eventually for a recession to happen, be it 2025 or 2026. And you point out were at the sticky phase, maybe, of inflation. It gets harder and that means why would anyone think if there is a recession, why would they cut rates . That is where we would fade the concerns that inflation is sticky around 3 . We actually think the fed can hit the 2 objective. Really . Faster than they think they can. By the end of next year. It will take until 2026 to do so. That is because we expect the normalization of spending and normalize service prices. Then the lag effect is coming through for recent and autorelated prices. Auto leases and auto repairs. That is why we are watching the risk of the uaw ultimately, we no longer expect the rate cut to happen in the first quarter. We expect it to start by the middle of next year. Most importantly to be faster than the fed expects once it begins. Do you think there is a chance we go up a point higher as far as rate hikes in the next year . Based on the data of slowdown in growth and the water mark of 2 . Do we stay here or go down . We hope we stay here this year and we dont do an additional hike. There is a nearly 50 chance it could happen in november or december. Most importantly, were almost done higher for longer now . I think it is high for longer. Not necessarily higher than we already are. In terms of how high is the conversation. 5. 4 is not sustainable. When you say you look forward to rate cuts. What is the scenario for them to cut rates . Will they be smart and say well cut before there is pain because we want to prevent a hard landing . I have a feeling the fed will not cut until there is a need for it. I agree. I think based on the latest press conference in september, they would be okay being behind the curve. What they want to see is inflation coming down and being sure it is on track to the 2 target before they begin to cut rates. That is the beginning or middle of next year. It also means if you are late, you have to cut faster than you project. More damage in the meantime. Perhaps. Thats where, for us, one of the Asset Allocation questions we get is why not stay in cash . We have 5. 5 cash rates nearly. For us, thats a dangerous place to be having too much cash. Especially because yields are forward looking to the growth slowdown and inflation coming down and faster rate cuts. We really look to take opportunity of the tenyear at 4. 6 because yields peak at three months after the last hike. We can lock in the yields now and benefit from the price appreciation and you could talk about double digit returns from core fixed income. It is a unique opportunity. Unless they hego higher. We are at the high water mark. They wont come down too much. We have to keep an eye on the value. Gabriela, thank you. What do you think the Mortgage Rates are going to look like . Im not trying to buy a home. Im trying to buy a home. We mentioned 5. 6. All of the discussions of the shutdown and dysfunction in congress are important because it means were not going to solve the high deficit issue. It means there is a higher term premium. We dont think the tenyear comes down farther than 2. 75. It is 80 basis points. Thats where it has been for a long time. For a while. Until we get a recession and the fed is forced to cut below neutral. Good news. Im certainly not looking forward to it. Nice to see you. Thank you. Coming up, a high profile tech ceo about to take the stand in the antitrust google trial. And ftx Sam Bankmanfried about to get his day in court and those victims are speaking out. Thats next on squawk box. Powering Sustainable Growth in a changing world. Powering Financial Solutions that transform industries. Powering innovation with access to capital. 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Golo is the only thing that will let you lose weight and keep it off. Who loses 138 pounds in nine months . I did golos a lifestyle change and you make the change and it stays off. soft music microsoft Ceo Satya Nadella is expected to testify at the antitrust google trial today. It is stating that google paid millions of dollars a year to apple to be the default Search Engine. He will be asked to expand the reach of its edge browser and the hurdles posed by the google dominance. There are questions if it could have gotten on apple if it offered more money. It will play into a lot of things we are watching closely. We are going to talk about Sam Bankmanfried with kate rooney in the room on her bir birthday. You will be here . Ill be here six weeks for the trial depending on the testimony. Lets talk about the next chapter in the failed exchange ftx is starting tomorrow. Sbfs trial is getting under way and now some are telling their story to kate rooney. Great to see you. Harrison resigned from his position at ftx two months before the implosion. He krdescribed a tense relationship with sbf. I asked to describe the companys Financial Health when he left. I had no reason to suspect that ftx wasnt anything other than profitable and in great shape. Sam was, you know, embarking on fund raising again. He said both on some internal all hands and extensionally that ftx. Com had 2 billion in excess capital with the result of the raises. Ftx had 600 million and in amazing shape. You think ftx is going to eat the world. Some of the top employees at the time at ftx didnt have a sense of the actual Financial Health of the company . I can only speak for the people on the u. S. Side. We had absolutely no clue. How is that possible . Look, imagine yourself in our position. You are in a high ranking position, but not the ceo, do you think sam has made all of the public and private reporting of the finances of the company. I should get all of the Bank Statements or access to all of those and run through those and see if i agree with the accounting. Sam testified in front of congress he is getting public accolades from the top firms. Should i distrust everything he is saying in those forums . I think everyone in that position would be a time to suspect something is wrong . If anybody knew the real Financial Health of ftx, who would that have been . I would have to think the closest inner circle, the people in the bahamas, and other founders had to know. We now know four people in that inner circle harrison describes have pled guilty to the chance of ftx. Sbf has pleaded not guilty. You can understand how the