Big tech earnings. First, stocks struggling to stay above the flat line the s p 500 up 0. 2 . Weighed down by banks and other older economy areas. The nasdaq outperforming up 0. 9 right now. Relief rally in amazon after some relatively reassuring results from the company last night. Tech also finally getting a bid after its been down more than 2 for the nasdaq this week its a painful week if youre in tech, even though fundamentally the big tech earnings havent been bad. It was a little reveal of how crowded the stocks had gotten and, perhaps, how much faith had been placed in them that they were going to be able to blow away numbers meta getting a little bit of a bid today, too its a little bit of a rethink of the immediate selloff in stocks like alphabet and meta that didnt necessarily seem to match up with the numbers. Checking on rates the tenyear note yield a little higher but still below 4. 9 and below the 5 level we reached on monday its been a busy week for Economic Data that gdp, pce, today personal spending numbers, durable goods among others what do we take away from this data and what does it mean for the feds next move . Lets bring in cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman. Most, if not all of it, steve, has been better than expected. A pretty good week, sara. I guess theres a lot to worry about, a lot to complain about it was a week of mostly stronger Growth Growth tended to exceed estimates and the prior readings with inflation remaining a bit sticky here. Thats probably the rub. And all continuing to raise questions about the strength of the economy in the months ahead. Take a look at this graphic we prepared here. Arrow is helping you figure out gdp accelerated sharply. Came in above estimates. That had already been revised higher core pce in line with estimates. Personal income a little light relative to estimates and below the prior month. But the bigger story, Consumer Spending beating estimates with a persistent theme here of stronger Consumer Spending all this week and all last week. Stronger than most forecasts durables higher than estimates. This is interesting because it shows some rebounding of business investment. It had been weak in the gdp report all this seemed to cement the markets expectation for no change in the fund rate next week and even reduce the probability of any future hikes this cycle with a Federal Reserve that seems to be ready to sort of watch it and let it play out, and also as you said, sara at the top of this, these high Interest Rates doing a bit of the work for the fed. I can make two arguments on this you know, core pce, i mean, you can do opposite ends of this you could say inflation is still elevated, its sticky, not coming down to target, still 3. 7 at core which is more than it should be or you could say if you look at the threemonth core pce, its about 2. 5 it has come down sharply and i wonder inside the fed how theyre going to look at this data. I think what i would add to that conversation is, again, this continued expectation that the consumer will slow here with the student debt loan payments real disposable income when you adjust for inflation is negative so, thats something also the idea of savings running down i think they want to watch and see, now that youve had this really sharp increase in Interest Rates, there hasnt necessarily played out through the economy. I think the fed is going to take it month by month or meeting by meeting. Look, if they need to do more, they will do more. They made that clear i just dont think theyre in a hurry to do more because they think there is some slowness, that slowness weve been waiting for hasnt happened. They think it may happen now. Steve, the market thinks it may happen, too. Im not talking about the bond market because its being driven by everything weve been talking about for weeks. This stock market is basically bracing for a pretty steep slowdown i was looking back to prior quarters when we had at least 4 or so gdp annualized as we just got reported it doesnt tend to fall apart all at once, right its rare it goes from 4 to blow 1 , as a lot of forecasts are saying, but again, this is a weird cycle. There is some momentum to the economy here a bunch of the analysts that i read this morning, michael, said that its very hard for them to see a recession in the current numbers because of what you just said this idea that it would require the economy to stop on a dime. I think there was a pretty good expectation that things do calm down a little bit. Youre not going to get these very strong Consumer Spending numbers weve had in the past. But one thing that is interesting here is that goods goods inflation was negative it was deflation and so what people did is they stepped up to buy stuff because prices had become more reasonable so, if thats the case, you could still have some continued good momentum. I just dont think youll get these strong numbers we had. So, its possible that things slow the fed wants to slow below potential. Im not sure its going to get that. What is q4 gdp practitracking if i told you, sara, all id say is theyve been revised again. Theyre down in the 1 area. I didnt get my rapid update i could do a quick search to see if its here from my friend justin from moodys. I dont think its here yet. Its a lot lower. The last check i have is 0. 5 for q4 Steven Stanleys at 2 00 and mike is at 1 or median is 1 with the cnbc rapid update for q4. We just have three economists weighing in. Well do a little more work on this over time you have the magnitude exactly right, sara. Thats pretty good on the fly, steve. Not bad we have to wait for the atlanta fed ive got it all here somewhere. I just need a minute they nailed it and everyone criticized them and said they were too optimistic. Steve, appreciate it. Well continue this conversation with our next guest who believes it is unlikely the outlook for 2024 will be particularly positive on growth, adding it may more closely resemble a copy and paste of 2023. Joining us is max kettner. You think thats what the consensus is going to be pencilling in for next year . Absolutely. You were just talking about the consensus number for q4. Lets be honest, if we just look at two months ago, that consensus number for q4 growth was very close to zero again, right . Thats just been changed and revised a little bit higher. When we look at q1 and q2 next year, we again have consensus numbers very close to zero you guys were talking about it as well. It is definitely very rare that you go from a reacceleration of growth, such as weve seen in the last couple of quarters, to suddenly, you know, suddenly 1 or below that even to numbers like that. So, to me, i think theres two things that really stand out number one, its still pretty resilient growth number two, even if we slow down, and i do agree, right, were not going to get those below ad Consumer Spending numbers. Thats fine. But as long as consensus is still on track with these really, really subdued and close to zero growth expectations in the next couple of quarters, thats great, right . All we need is sort of like 1. 5 growth and its already going to be much, much better than expected than consensus expectations that ultimately should help risk assets. Yeah. Youre generally positive on equities, on other risky parts of the capital markets, i suppose. What does the yield picture mean for that outlook, though i mean, i think the markets collectively have been in this kind of parallel panic of, oh, no, yields are flying at the same time. We dont think the economy can handle this rapid increase in rates. Weve gone from goldie lockso reverse goldilocks nothing works. All you want is dollar and cash. Thats not a particularly thats challenging from Asset Allocation perspective if everything sells off number one, its for me not really the yield per se. I think right now there is an extreme focus, gr bond yields, but what were seeing is were seeing the bond yields moving higher, real yields moving higher, also as a reaction of Growth Growth actually staying resilient. Growth numbers being much better than expected. People are only really, if we think about, for example, things about the equity risk premium, theyre only focusing at that equity risk premium on the second term, that bond yield theyre not factoring in the possibility of earnings, right, of that earnings yield i actually think a little better because growth is remaining a little resilient thats number one. Number two, i would want to add is, its not necessarily the level of bond yields im so concerned about because if that is followed through by better earnings, fine, ill take it what i am concerned about is, is the bond volatility. Its the movement, its the speed of the move. In fact, if i tell you equity risk premium, if i tell you, i know for sure, i come from the future and i know for sure the bond yield is 5 over the next 12 months. Fine, ill take it if i tell you its somewhere between zero and 10 , what are you going to do . Youre going to say i need a higher earnings yield to compensate thats more what im worried about. Im more worried about the volatility in rates rather than the level. And i think the markets agree with you there theyre wishing for more calm in those rates. Thanks very much appreciate the time today. What did Michael Hartnett say, not until we see discipline from the United States can we get those in bond rates. Its not happening. We dont have the movement for that also the shortfalls been on the revenue side i would be interested in the conversation talk on what well do with the trump tax cuts when they expire in 2025. Longterm. We turn to the latest in israel rockets breaching the iron dome this morning, hitting an Apartment Building in tel aviv now there are claims from the idf in israel there are terrorists headquarters under a major gaza hospital. Nbcs jay gray in tel aviv with the latest on this developing story here, pinpointing some terrorist operations jay . Reporter yeah, sara, its just come out in the last few minutes, an idf spokesperson saying they have intelligence that tells them that there are ten hospitals inside gaza with command and control centers underneath, including the hospital where they say there is a command center for terror, is how they put it, underneath that hospital hamas has come out and categorically denied that any of those hospitals are being used in any anything thats going on with the war saying that its just an kus again, these are their words for the idf to focus attacks on hospital thats something that well continue to watch. Just beginning to play out right now. And it comes after what was a second night of targeted raids that included troops and tanks moving into gaza, clearing out the area along the border between israel and gaza, taking out some more of those command centers as well as some of the antitank installations, the troops on the groundworking as well and the navy involved this time just off the coast with significant strikes to structures during their move during that raid so, clearly, the idf continues to say this, they are preparing for the next phase of this war, which would appear to be some type of ground advance but no timing specified at all you mentioned this coming in after numerous attempts today all blocked by the iron dome, a lot of air raid sirens here in tel aviv today, one of the rockets did get through. It struck an apartment complex here in tel aviv just to the south side of the city we know that four people were injured. Their injuries described as light to moderate. So, no fatalities as a result of this strike, but one of the rockets did make it through. The idf says there have been 8,000 rockets fired at tel aviv since the start of the war yeah, Benjamin Netanyahu just tweeted out the intelligence that they say they have, showing the hospital and all the underground tunnels and terror offices. Thank you very much. Jay gray from tel aviv. Still to come on the show, Columbia Sportswear cuts guidance on what that company is calling a challenging u. S. Market ceo joins us next with the stock down 20 this year plus, watching the automakers, ford lower after results and saying it is postponing about 12 billion in planned spending on new ev manufacturing capacity idceueo e w ngso pulli guan d tthuastrike stay with us nice footwork. Man, youre lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. Now you can stream all your games like its nothing. Yes [ cheers ] yeah woho running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. Wells fargo souring slightly on target this morning, cutting its price target by 15 down to 120 still above where it trades right now, about 109d at the moment the firm finds it difficult to get behind that idea, citing detear rating foot traffic, questions on market. Stock is down more than 25 for the year its become a battleground this month. To a degree, yes. Theres some longterm believers in the omni channel advantages and things like that that have built up during the pandemic stock has really lost any valuation premium. Trades very cheap to walmart and others. They still have Cost Efficiency Program going on for a few billion dollars. And the small format stores. Certainly in new york. Maybe thats not a good gauge. Sticking with the consumer, columbia falling this morning after missing Third Quarter revenue. This did cite strength in china and growth in directtoconsumer business but lowered guidance for the full year, saying macro headwind could mean bigger slowdown in some areas joining us first on cnbc is columbia ceo tim boyle good to see you, tim what are you seeing from the consumer right now it depends on where in the world youre talking about the chinese consumer, frankly, is quite robust. Our business there has been good you have to remember we underperformed in that market for several years. We believe we have the right team in place there, so that business is going well our European Business is going well frankly, i think the u. S. Business is as much responding to warm weather than almost anything else. We have a big portion of our products are weatherrelated its important the weather be appropriate for selling winter goods in october is it the weakness coming in orders from wholesale specifically in the u. S. Is that what you see in directtoconsumer has been good, hasnt it . Yeah. When we talk about the most current quarter, its really about loading the shelves for retailers. And then when we talk about the future, its about how we perceive the weather likely weather. We hope for normal, average weather, but retailers are becoming quite cautious. So, we have our own stores, but we also have a big business in selling to other retailers those retailers generally are becoming much more cautious about 24. What about Inventory Management during this period, how are you dealing with that . As you know, and weve been quite open with our investors that we had a lot of inventory at the beginning of this year. Most of it was a function of residual impacts from the pandemic and logistics issues around the pandemic. But we spent the year, and were quite proud of reducing our inventories and still maintaining our gross margins. Thats a big part of our story we have a very strong Balance Sheet so we can approach inventories in a way we can liquidate over time. We dont have to go crazy and mark stuff down impacting our gross margin now its just managing for the residual portion of the inventories. We told investors we plan to reduce our inventories as against last end of year by another 200 million good stuff happening you mentioned the retailers are pretty cautious at this point. Do you think theyre wrong about reading what the consumer is ultimately going to be able to do into next year . We have such a broad swath of retailers that its hard to know if theyre wrong or right. I just think the general focus has been, lets just take a little smaller, more conservative approach to next year and well try to chase goods. If people have them, theyll be fine what about across channels, are your Outlet Stores outperforming the ecommerce and other stores because of the value nature of the consumer in general our brick and mortar stores, which are mostly to Outlet Stores, are outperforming the other components, which are, for us, ecommerce although we have great business in pure play retailers across the world really, so, you know, its a mixed bag all right, tim. Thank you for the update appreciate it. Thank you. Stock a little higher right now. Tim boyle, columbia sports ceo up next, a check on the energy market. Chevron and exxon both lower following their earnings wti on the flip side moving higher as overseas tensions escalate plus, cnbc investigation looking at a Pandemic Relief Program and an Interest Rate that popped up alongside it to cash in on billions of dollars of taxpayer money. Thats next. Exciting music. [mud splat. ] [bird squawk. ] and thats why i never drive those guys. 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