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CNNW Inside July 4, 2024

Ohio sends a signal to the nation. Voters there decide on a Ballot Measure with big implications for women and 2024 as brand new poll numbers show a second straight summer of Deep Discontent with the Supreme Courts decision to wipe out roe. Plus the reset ripples all the way the to the top. Ron desantis replaces his Campaign Manager. Will the shird shakeup in less that be a month be a charm. And tell it to the heart. Republicans say an Impeachment Inquiry is the only one and the only way to move forward versus joe biden. New cnn reporting pins down when House Republicans plan to do this. Im dana bash. Lets go behind the headlines and inside politics. First, a Special Election that will tell us a lot about 2024 and just how much Abortion Rights will motivate voters. Today ohio goes to the polls. It may seem like a mundane question about constitutional math, but you read between the lines, it is very clearly about abortion. Republicans want to make it harder to rewrite the states constitution, which would make it easier to sideline attempts at expanding access. The august fight is anything but small time attracting big money from National Groups and already big turnout from voters. Lets get straight to ohio, where jeff zeleny is. Explain whats going on there and explain the stakes. Reporter Polling Places like the one behind me here in columbus are open across the state. They are at the halfway mark. This is a rare Special Election in august, as you said. This is why. Republican leaders of ohio scheduled this election to change the rules for what it takes to change the states constitution to simply vote on if it would take a 60 Super Majority of the public to change the constitution from the current 50 for a century its taken 50 to change the constitution. At issue here is Abortion Rights. A separate issue in november is going to be on the ballot then to try to enshrine Abortion Rights into this states constitution. Before that, Republican Leaders want to make it more difficult to get that passed. They were trying to schedule this during august during a Sleeper Election month when many are on vacation or not paying attention. Tens of millions of dollars have been spent, Television Ads are full of this topic here and conversation. The voters were talking to say that they were not caught off guard. It has drawn so much attention. Take a listen to one. The evidence is that the reason why it got put on the ballot this summer was for the abortion quote, but when you look at the other things that are coming along, whether or not the min munl wage or other things that the legislature is not taking up or taking up in a manner that they are not happy with, its aimed at preventing that. Reporter so this is a bit of a revolt, if if you will, against the legislature. The Citizen Initiative petition, citizens have their voice and say. You heard the voter talking about this is more than about abortion. Minimum wage is also beginning to be a potential constitutional amendment coming up next. Thats also driving much of this conversation. But abortion is first and foremost the topic here. We will see when the polls close tonight what this specific issue does. But regardless, that Abortion Rights issue will still be on the ballot in november. One year after roe vs. Wade was overturned, the states get their say. Just to reiterate, it will be on the ballot in november. The question is what threshold does it have to meet in order to get it passed. Really interesting to see whats going to happen today. Now here we have brand new cnn polling about Abortion Rights and how it could play in the 2024 election. As you see, cnns political director David Chalian is here. This is a national poll, not just look ing at ohio, where yo just saw jeff. Its telling us a pretty consistent story over the last year. Take a look. A year ago when dobbs came into place and roe was overturned, you had 63 not in favor of the decision. 37 actually approved of that Dobbs Decision that overturned roe. Its about the same now. Youre talking about nearly twothirds of americans in this poll who are opposed to what the Supreme Court did last year. And i just want you to look at some key demographics that we look ed at in this poll. Theres only one number here that is north of 50 . Thats among republicans. 68 approve of the Dobbs Decision. Every other group is down below 50 . Men, 44 approve. Older voters, 41 . White noncollege educated, 42 . But that doesnt get the majority status. Only republicans robustly support the move. Its so interesting. And its fascinating to see how consistent the polling is, especially on the first number. One of the big debates inside the republican primary contest is whether or not to support state bans on abortion or to make it a national ban. What did our poll show on that . This was a pretty interesting finding. For the outside Interest Groups on the antiAbortion Rights or pro life movement, youre going to see some success here that they have had. A year ago, youre among those who approve of dobbs x approve of overturning roe. 20 of those approvers were in favor of people pushing for a national ban back in july. Thats grown now. Now 34 of the voters who approve of dobbs, republicans, conservatives, pro life groups, 34 now say push for a nationwide restriction. Its still not the majority position, but outside groups, they are having an impact here seeing the base more interested in hearing those republican politicians push for a national ban. On the flip side, where democrats take strength, the potency of this issue is staying here. We asked, would you only vote for a candidate who shares your view on abortion . So four years in the midst of a democratic race, you see the numbers were here. A year ago, it was only 26 overall who said they must share their position on abortion to get their vote. Thats now up to 29 . Look how thats grown as a litmus test for democrats from a year ago. Among independents, its grown from 25 to 28 . Even among republicans, it stayed consistent. This is an issue growing in potency, even a year out, not shrinking. So interesting. A lot more to talk about. First, lets just talk about our listen to what the candidates who are on the trail have been saying about abortion. Im looking at a solution thats going to work. A very complex issue for the country. You wouldnt be having a discussion if you werent able to get rid of roe v. Wade. Every republican candidate for president should support a ban on abortion before 15 weeks as a minimum nationwide standard. I dont judge anyone for being pro choice anymore i want them to judge me for being pro life. She signed a Heartbeat Bill today. We were able to do that in florida. We had a lot of opposition to that. I would start the conversation with a limit of 15 weeks and try my best to get it more conservative. Here to share their i object sights, jeremy diamond, amy walter, and David Chalian is now here at the table. Good to see you all. Amy, im curious your thoughts on the findings of the national move when it comes to abortion. David stole, as usual because hes so smart, the thing i wanted to hone in on. The difference between 2019 and now, just the intensity of the issue. Especially among democrats and those people who describe themselves as liberal, versus people who are republicans, or describe themselves as conservative. And what david pointed out is, you can see on that chart, that the issue for democrats has become more potent than in 2019. Its been the same for republicans. They are more engaged than they were predobbs. And among liberals, this is much more of a biggish for them. Supporting only someone who supports Abortion Rights, Invesversus Conservatives back in 2019. Now liberals are more concerned. It is clear that this issue, number one, as your poll pointed out, its not going away. Its not getting easier for republicans to talk about, but for the democrats, it is still a motivating issue for their base. There was a question of how long was this momentum in politics going to last in terms of abortion being a motivating issue. Clearly, its still seeing a lot of staying power. This vote in ohio is going to be a good test. When you see it reflected in the votes, its another. Good news for the prch in the white house. As they ramp up the economic messaging, they are counting on abortion and other social issues to be motivating for their coalitions heading into the president ial campaign. Ron desantis, heres Somebody Running in a republican primary, court ing the right wing evangelical base, signs a sixweek bab in his state of florida. How does he sign it . At night with no cameras, puts out a foe top. Somehow he doesnt want to kpeeltly own it. He then when pressed about what he would do as the president in a National Federal position, its been a little americaier about let the states decide. So you see how nikki haley, tim scott, even donald trump has suggested this issue is not easy for republicans to run on because the real Public Opinion is overwhelming. So you watch them try to navigate it. Yet you hear the outside groups like the susan b. Anthony group. Im going to talk to an influential evangelical conservative in iowa about this. They argue that the reason why republicans didnt do as well in the midterm elections is because they ran away from it. They didnt have a clear, firm position. Does this bear that out . I think there are two ways to think about that. Abortion out there by itself in a vacuum, which never happens, but we can pretend. Now you marry abortion and donald trump, think about what youre talking about in 2022 kind of at the same time. The January 6th Hearings and abortion. When i talked to people after the election, republicans and democratic strategists on the issue of abortion, it came back to right, freedoms, it wasnt so much about 12 weeks, 6 weeks, we talk about it in medical terms, hast not how voters are looking at it. Its part of the same trend that were seeing. Whether its the capital being attacked, the Supreme Court taking away something we had for 50 years, they hear about a judge who says you cant have contraception or the morning after pill. It falls into that same category. You cant disentangle that now. Especially if trump is youre a standard barer. Thats really interesting. The Freedom Narrative is something we saw in bidens campaign. They are taking all of these issues together, lwhether its book bands or transgender rights or taking away Abortion Rights. They are putting it all under this narrative of freedom, which is interesting given that freedom is something you associate with the republican brand. They are trying to appropriate it to use a very modern term. I want to quickly surk the back to what jeff zeleny was reporting on about whats going on in ohio. I want to remind people, its a bit confusing. There is going to be a referendum on the ballot in november. The question is going to be what the threshold is. They want to see if it should get to 60 or not. Look back at some of the other referendums. Theres a reason why they are trying to make a 60vote threshold. When i say they, its republicans that dont want this question to be on the ballot. Do you think republicans were aware of those . It shows you its a higher burden for those who support enshrining Abortion Rights in the constitution. Which is why the folks on that side, on the pro abortion right side have made this Special Election in august, which republicans also hoped Special Election august maybe know its happening, they made it about abortion issue. Not about some rule changes, but about Abortion Rights. Everybody standby. Were going to talk about the campaign in crisis, the biggest shakeup yet for ron desantis. Well give you the new information, after a quick break. Ks. But the same aipowered security that protects all of google also defends these services for everyone who lives here. My most important kitchen tool . My brain. So i choose neuriva plus. Unlike some others, neura plus is a multitasker supporting 6 key indicators of bin health. To help ke me sharp. Neuriva think bigger. Rsv can be a dangerous virus. [sneeze]. For those 60 and older. Its not just a cold. And if youre 60 or older. You may be at increased risk of hospitalization. [coughing]. From this highly. Contagious virus. 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The florida governors Chief Of Staff in tallahassee, the new boss has a reputation, hes going to be the new Campaign Manager, he has a reputation as an enforcer and it comes after six months of sinking polls and second guessing about how the campaign is spending its money and the candidates time. The change at the top was first report ed by The Messenger. Lets talk about it here. David chalian, your thoughts . We have been watching now a slow burn here for four weeks of a campaign reboot. So first of all, getting the Campaign Reset seems to be going as well as the campaign itself for the desantis team. I dont know why its taken this long, if youre making the decision, things are not going well. We have to shed a third of our staff. Were way overspending money. That needs to get into control. Our polls are slipping. Our donors are starting to complain to us. This has been happening for weeks. Now you invite yet another round of questions because now youre switching the person at the top. So i dont think this is a role model for any campaign of a fourweek process to actually say, hey, we know its not working. Were put ting a new thing in place. I just keep going back to, you know what, a campaign is a reflection of the candidate. You can change a lot on the campaign. But its the candidate that seems to be the big issue here. Now is he going to act differently . Is he going to implement a new strategy because theres a new person on top . Is he going to suddenly become a different kind of candidate . I have doubts about this, but fund thely, the challenge that he hz is that nothing he has done thus far has worked. The message of im the candidate who is the more reasonable trump or winnable trump candidate. So he tried to be that k candidate. Then hes the woke candidate, trying to take that lane. And now its the, well, trump really didnt finish what he started. I know how to finish what he started. He had three messages, but The Messenger himself is the bigger challenge, i think. Why do you say that . Because he doesnt necessary ily agree with that. I want to remind everybody what he said on fox at the end of july. Im not a political opera tuf. Im not a campaign professional. You set out the vision and you execute. If its not being executed, you make the court correction. Whats interesting is that going to that point is both his prior Campaign Manager is and this new Campaign Manager, neither of them have run a president ial campaign. And thats significant in and of itself. The only Silver Lining is hes choosing to do this in august and not just before the iowa caucuses. At least hes getting ahead of it,

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