September 4. 70,000 people are stranded in the Nevada Desert for the Third Straight day, but roads could reopen today. People at the burning Manifest Value are stuck in mud too thick to drive on forcing organizers to impose shelterinplace o orders. And a manhunt in pennsylvania, this convicted killer less than two miles from where he escaped. And hes still on the run this morning. And donald trump dominates the 2024 republican field and pulls even further ahead in a new Wall Street Journal poll. He is the top choice for almost 60 of Republican Voters. In fact 78 of them say trumps actions after the 2020 election were legitimate. And the Ukraine Defense minister fired by the nations president who says ukraine needs, quote, new approaches as the war with russia enters its 19th month. And workers at the Big Three Automakers prepare to walk off the job in less than two weeks if the unions and companies cant reach a deal on a new labor contract. A strike against all three at once has never happened before and it could have a big impact on the economy. Cnn this morning starts right now. Good monday morning. We hope you had a great weekend. Certainly if you are watching any news this weekend, it was almost entirely focused on this, officials in nevada say the roads out of burning Manifest Value grounds may reopen today after a rare but heavy downpour turned the grounds into a muddy sticky mess. Inundated campsites Leaving Tens Of Thousands of people trapped in the desert. You dont expect this kind of rain. And the effect nobodys ever seen this kind of effect in there ever. Attendees were told to conserve food, fuel and water after it became impossible for them to even walk or drive their vehicles. But some people who were there said it wasnt so bad. My friends are trying to message me if im okay, but in reality, it was really nice. Things actually felt not only safe and comfortable for the vast majority of people from my impression, but actually fun. We all came together and made the best of it. And event organizers say plans to set fire to the Iconic Effigy could happen tonight and exodus of campers will likely start later today. Camila bernal reports from burning man. We plan on leaving right after the burn which is saturday night. And then it started raining on us like that night. Reporter a dramatic washout at Burning Man Trapping Tens Of Thousands at the festival and delaying the events marquee moment when a massive wooden effigy known as the man is set on fire. The decades old gathering in the Black Rock Desert is no stranger to extreme heat. But rarely like this. Were sinking. I think barefoot is the way go. Reporter two to three wo months worth of rain falling in just several hours turning the ground into thicklike paste. This festival grower, dean, shot this video with his ankle deep into the mud. And from the air, you could see the standing water, muddy roads and countless rvs, vans, trucks and other vehicles parked and helpless. When it was really wet, you couldnt do anything, you just lived here. There is really no way to walk miles to get out of it. We couldnt leave. Like we were stuck basically. People could barely walk let alone ride their bikes or drive out of here. And so that is when it started k3 getting a little scary. Reporter many who tried to drive were stuck. The situation so concerning that even President Biden was briefed on the matter. While organizers have often described the 23esfestival as Af Expression Event where harshness meets creativity, few expected it to be this bad. It is a survival event. You come out here to be in a harsh climate and you prepare for that. Reporter event organizers said roads remain, quote, too wet and muddy and local authorities have told thousands of people to shelter in place. Though some attendees braved the conditions to make it out. Including this actor and Comedian Chris Rock and another festival attendee deejay diplo, they posted videos as they trekked more than 6 miles in the mud before the two got a ride on the back of a pickup truck. Local officials are urging those still on site to conserve food, water and fuel. Still, some attendees down played fears telling us that they think that they will manage just fine. I dont think that it is going to like people are going to like starve or do anything over there. The community in itself would help each other and there is a lot of people who overstocked for this thing too. It is really beautiful actually when you go into the camps. Everybody was helping each other out. Reporter camila bernal, cnn, black rock city. So how did just 0. 8 inches of rain completely cut these people off so quickly . Derek van dam is joining us now. And give ussen ide an idea of h happened. It is all about the topsoil. What you are looking at here with our 3d Visualization Tool is the difference between Desert Topsoil and our earthy topsoil that you and i might use to plant our vegetables in our garden for instance. We call that loam. And water easily absorbs into that earthy topsoil. But when you are talking about rain that continuously falls within the desert, it doesnt take much to pool up and mixing up with that clay creating that very muddy cementlike mixture that ultimately cost so much thousands of people to get stranded in the desert nevada. Just take a look at some of these visuals. The aerial visuals really speak for themselves. Look at these cars. You can see the muddy tracks and you can see completely abandoned vehicles because they simply cannot drive, it is too thick, too difficult to navigate that type of cementlike mixture that is a combination of the water not absorbing back into the ground, we call that an impermeable ser urface and simp the a rain that fell in a short period of time. There are no Flood Watches in effect for the black rock basin, this is known as a plia. In fact well dry things out rather quickly. As soon as get the sun to rise this morning, well get the typical evaporation that would happen within this plia, you see just north of empire, that shading of white, that is a dry basin and normally evaporates the water. But that simply didnt happen because the rain continuously fell over the same areas for a period of time on friday and saturday. But the good news is that the rain has come to an end and so well start to dry things out rather quickly. Thank you for that. In the 8 00 hour, well be joined by diplo. We mentioned that he and chris rock hitched a ride out of burning man and well have a Leave Interview with him ahead. A new poll shows donald trump dominating among his republican rivals. What about a potential trump biden matchup . Those numbers coming up. And the significance of the talks with turkeys prpresident ahead. Please e dont go. Please dont go please dont gogo dont goooooo dont go away please dont go before and bath fitter. Before and bath fitter. If you have a before bath, nows the time to call bh fitter to get a beautiful after. Withur unique tub over tub process, thes no mess or stress. Spend smart on a beautiful new bath done right backed by a lifetime warranty. Join over 2 million happy customers who know it just fits. Bath fitter. Visit bathfitter. Com to book your free consultation. Right now get a free footlong at subway. Like the subway series menu. Buy one footlong in the app, get one free. For freeee. 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Ive never seen anything like this with donald trump. I mean, what doesnt kill you make you stronger . I mean, being indicted, that is making him stronger, raising 10 million using an ugly mug shot to raise money . This is a movement. And anyone who thinks that you can apply the old political rules to trying to defeat this candidate based on hes scary, hes ugly, whatever you might want to call it, this is a movement. And we have to respect the fact that it is a movement. That was Donna Brazile understanding the formidable nature particularly in the Republican Party that donald trump continues to hold. A new Wall Street Journal poll backs her up. 59 of republican primary voters support trump. He is up 11 points from april when the poll was last taken. Look at this, trump is still in a dead heat with President Biden in a hypothetical head to head rematch. 46 a piece. Lets bring in political analyst and host of the Podcast Conversations with coleman, coleman hughes, as well as political analyst ron brownstein, also editor at the atlantic. His latest piece is why biden cant shake trump in the polls. Ron, i think that the value of this piece, and i say this often about your analysis, is you listen to donna brazil and people talk and it is this how, why does this keep happening even after seven years of it always happening. And your piece tracks the code to some degree almost breaking out the why here. What are those four pillars . Obviously one reason good morning, happy labor day, everybody. One reason is that were really dug in as a country and there are not many voters who will switch sides for whatever reason, whatever is going on. But beyond that, there really are four core factors i think that are shaping the environment for 2024. Two of them are weakening President Biden, two of them are weakening donald trump. For biden, the headwinds are concerns about his age. Again today consistently in that poll three quarters of americans say they think that he is too old to serve as president for another term. And inflation. Inflation is incredibly scarring for voters and it is at this point largely eclipsing the power biden has on a variety of economic fronts. You think of Job Creations and jobs specifically slowing out of the trail for a few years. But inflation on one side. On the other side, abortion and insurrection are weakening trump. Abortion was a powerful weapon for democrats in 22. Not everywhere, but in the key swing states that will likely decide 24. Including arizona and michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin. Clear majority of voters wanted abortion to stay legal and a big majority of them voted for democrats and the other factor is insurrection. There is a majority of americans who believe that what he did after 2020 was illegal and unconstitutional even though Republican Voters overwhelmingly take the opposite position. And when you add up age and inflation on one side and abortion and insurrection on the other, what that adds up to right now is stalemate. Coleman, i want to turn to you because we heard Donna Brazile admitting something that lot of people feel like they have known for the better part of eight years. So have democrats really made the adjustment that they need to do account for what shes talking about . It remains to be seen. And that was a great analysis i think byron just now. So youve got these two factors on even 00 side which seem to equal each other out. The question is are there what other factors are going to emerge. So for example independent voters may end up caring quite a bit about the emerging hunter biden scandal. Will that tip the scales . Who knows. Is there going to bes at trump indictments evolve, is the optics of that going to continue to help trump within the gop but hurt him with independents, which is what has happened thus far . I think that you see this 60 number, right, we should remember before the indictments, trump was polling closer to 40 and that is what you might call like the personality cult. Those are the people that just like trump no matter what. After the indictments, there is another 20 of Republican Voters or so that have come home to trump because they feel that he is persecuted and they need to rally to his defense by nominating him. Not so much a vote for him, but in a way a vote against the forces they are upset with. Exactly. And in the end even though biden is in some ways a candidate with some weaknesses, trump is still not the best bet for beating him. So in some way republicans may have to choose between nominating trump and beating biden. And the way things are looking now, it looks like they want to choose nominating trump. Ron, to that point, because i think everybody looks at first up, National Polls this far out on a head to head basis, i definitely want to see trend line, but im not totally sold on why they have a Significant Impact in the race. But the idea of if you break down going into a general election which has long been my question and then you look at the states that really matter, and you nailed them where it could actually come down to the fact that this is literally a georgia, pa, arizona type of moment going into the fall of 2024 when you look at those dynamics, the kind of four key pillars there, how do those states break based on those dynamics do you think . Right. Phil, first point is that we are looking at and historically small number of swing states that will almost certainly decide the winner in 2024. You know there are 40 states that have voted the same way in each of the past four president ial elections which is the highest level of consistency since at least the turn of the 20th century. Even roosevelts four consecutive wins, not as high a share of states voted the same way. So were looking at a tiny battlefield. And i think one thing that kind reassures democrats amid all of this bad news about biden and the resistance to biden in the polls is that in 2022, i think the results clearly he showed democrats still have an easier path to 270 than republicans especially if it is trump. I mean, democrats did win the governorship in arizona, michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin with almost 80 of voters saying they were dissatisfied with the economy and a majority of voters saying they disapproved of booidens performance or didnt want him to run again because of his age. But their concerns about abortion and democracy outweigh those concerns. While the analysis is somewhat reassuring to democrats, there is a lot more anxiety than there was six or eight months ago about the persistence of the unease in the quleek electorate. It could look different over time with convictions and once you face the actual reality of trump, but they are in a more precarious situation i think than almost any of them could have imagined when the indictments started coming down. Sglt re the reason the man feels so locked is part of the jerr gerry gerrymandering, right . In florida, a judge rejected a congressional map that ron desantis was pushing. This is a Battle Where Desantis Is Fighting with fellow republicans. Now, his map fully eliminated two heavily plaque black distri. Can you talk about this ruling and what else is going on in florida with desantis and black voters . I think were so often in the business of delivering bad political news. I think this is a moment for restoring faith in the role of an independent judiciary because what you see right now is a republican nominated judge essentially policing his own side. Right . Saying that that is not a valid way of restricting the districts in florida and that is diluting the black vote. That is the role of the judiciary. And it restores faith that the judiciary is not just playing politics by other means but is actually using jurisprudence to uphold the constitution. In the context of what has been going on, we see other hopeleful examples as well. A few months ago the Supreme Court ruled 54 that alabamas restricting was similarly unconstituti