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CNNW Inside July 3, 2024

So that has to be part of the thinking. And it is. But the immediate focus is on making sure that israelis are protected, defended, and that this cant be repeated. With regard to the second front. Try to take advantage of the situation. The president has been clear about that. He said very starkly that any state or nonstate actor considering that should not. Dont do it. And hes backed that up in a number of ways, include ing as mentioned the other day deploying our Biggest Group to help ensure that anyone contemplating getting engaged doesnt do it. But beyond that, a big part of my own conversations here throughout this trip, including today, following up the next couple days is working with other countries to make sure they are using their own influence, their own relationship. Welcome to inside politics. We have been listening to the u. S. Secretary of state Antony Blinken in hamas backyard. Hes in qatar. He called hamas actions unconscionable and warned any country against offering them safe harbor. Talk about that in a minute. Particularly, given where the Secretary Of State is right now, were seeing israeli tanks on the move. Buss of troops are getting closer to the gaza border as strikes intensify. This just hours after the idfs warning to more than 1 million civilians leave Northern Gaza now to deal with hamas terrorists. Now even though hamas told everyone to stay, some are listening. But then the u. N. Is warning that getting everyone out is an Impossible Task that could have dire consequences. An Open Question is where are gazas arab neighbors. Its the assistance for innocent pales palestinians. Were going to start our coverage in israel with nic robertson. I want you to talk about what youre seeing there but as you do, i know you were listening to the Secretary Of State Antony Blinken, Very Interest Ing Word that he had while in qatar. Act being deliberate about hamas and the actions, the terrorism, that terrorists took last saturday and beyond inside israel and trying to do a dell indicate dance there. On the one hand telling them, but they need to rebuke hamas, who they give political space to to operate in qatar. Been to qatar a couple times, specifically to interview the leaders of hamas. Because thats they are allowed to reside and give their messages, if you will. The Prime Minister yesterday said all these political offices that hamas have Around The World should be shut down. They are carrying part of that message that this is a way by shutting down those offices of signaling to hamas that they have crossed a line, that they are going to be penalized and punished for this. On the other hand, hes speaking to the qatars yis, because they host hamas, of having a dialogue with hamas about releasing the hostages. So qatar can play several role there is. Its played roles in the past when there have been contacts. Its egypt that gets involved to find ways to reduce the tensions and end the conflict, but its often qatar that comes in through its relationship, the relationship it chooses to have with hamas, to help put money into gaza that will alleviate some of the social hardships to undermine hamas, that they have access to that money and use it for the projects it want wants Palestinian Civilians given the right to and work inside of iz are real. About so qatar has played this Important Role across all facets of diffusing the situation, and the Hostage Issue is on a very fine timeline, because israel is getting ready for a ground incursion, which puts the hostages in a very immediate and greater jeopardy. So complicated, so nuanced, and were so lucky to have you to explain. That context is critical. You are standing there near the border with gaza. You have been reporting on what the idf, the Israeli Military is doing to prepare for a possible ground invasion. What are you seeing at this hour as night has now fallen there . Reporter more Artillery Strikes on the northern end of gaza, the area that the idf has told gazas residents to move out of. Pst its not at a very high tempo, but its started up. We have seen a few rockets come out of gaza today, but not as many as before. And last night on gaza that we have seen so far, no rockets coming out of gaza, which i think tells its own accounting of how to stop the rockets coming out when theres heavy fire going into gaza. Hamas cannot operate and get their rockets out. But this tempo of buildup and buildup and the requests to civilians to move out of the way for safety, this is all instructive about how close we maybe getting to a possible ground incursion. Perhaps not tonight or tomorrow, but after that, the expectations are that it becomes a very reallife possibility when israel gets the information, intelligence, actual realtime that will help it achieve its goals. Nic robertson, thank you so much for that fantastic reporting. And here with me to share their insights based on their years of experience is retired Intelligence Officer Colonel Lathen and former Deputy Director of national intelligence, beth san er. You were sitting with me for the end of the u. S. Secretary of state and his comments. You were sort of nodding your head when you were listening to nic explain the goal that tony blinken has. He has multiple goals when dealing with the qatar people and other stops hes going to have along the way. He certainly does. The key thing about this is to think of qatar as kind of a switzerland in the middle east. What they are trying to do is they are trying to bridge the gap between several different Major Players in the middle east, one of them being hahs mass, the other being israel, and another one being iran. Plus they have to deal with the saudis. And they also have a major american presence in their country in the form of Military Base there is. So that becomes the jumping off point for discussions on the diplomatic front. Thats why qatar is so important to the Secretary Of State on his trip right now. Lets talk about the israeli order to evacuate, or at least part of gaza. My question for you is, the obvious, how are they supposed to do that . Lets just take one example, the u. N. Working with israel to allow the refugees out, to find a corridor out. Egypt, the neighbor there, allowing a court odor out, corridor out, or some of the wealthy countries, including qatar where the Secretary Of State is right now, helping. Whether it is financially or any other way, their fellow arabs inside gaza. I have heard this kind of horrible cynical phrase that a lot of middle east experts have said that the arab states are willing to fight israel to the last palestinian. It kind of tells you a lot about where were coming from, what the history has been here. Is so on the one hand, you have just so much pressure from israel saying no. They are not going to let up this siege until the hostages are released. Then theres a complication of people moving south. Are there going to be fighters mixed in with that. And. Were putting up a map that gives a sense of the other arab countries and then when blinken goes to these countries, these are the things hes talking about. Basically three things. One is included very much so included is iran. Preventing this from escalating. And kqatar is one of the main continue wits. Theys hosted the taliban negotiations. They have a long role in that. But the hostages and then the refugee situation, thats going to become very important in egypt. We give them a lot of money. So i think a lot pressure has to come to bear. Give who a lot of money . Qatar is under a lot of pressure now. Ameer was in germany and talking about this natural gas deal they are doing. Many people in germany are saying maybe we shouldnt be giving that deal to them. This is a conversation about what happens to the innocent civilians. You are both Intelligence Experts and have a lot of experience. What about the hostages . Do you have any hope that there is real insight into where they are inside the intelligence communities in the u. S. And in israel . More israel because they are more tactically focused. Although the u. S. Can provide some data that can help with Something Like this. I do hope some can be freed based on historical precedent and the Israeli Forces and perhaps based on a potential success in negotiations, even tha partial success. But its something that would take some time to realize. I dont know how much time we really have. Its pretty limited. 13 have already been killed. We dont know if thats true or not. We know they are spread out in tunnels. I dont think they have a complete understanding of that. Theres hope they will be able to get out women and children, maybe in exchange, but i think we also need to prepare ourselves mental for not a good outcome of the hostages. There are massive protests around the globe today. How high is the threat level should the threat level be right now globally and here in the u. S. . I think one of things we have to look for, it is a ring. We have schoolings closed down in europe because they are worried about threats here in the United States. We have to worry about jew ish places of worship. But in iraq and syria in particular, where we have these proxy groups with a lot of deniability but links to iran, i think we are up on very high alert there. I agree. I think you look all the whats happening in iraq, in yemen, big protests in several other cities, and several other places in the middle east. Its pretty clear that the fuse is about to be lit. And we have to be very, very careful with this. So if i were working a Warning System or the terrorist alert levels, i would have to say that definitely have to be possible raised, it should be high at this point. Well, thank you both if for this incredibly important to talk to both of you given how long you both worked in intelligence. Were going to continue to cover all of the latest developments out of israel and gaza. Meanwhile, here in the United States, republican chaos like we have never seen before in congress, and that is saying something. They have no idea who the next House Speaker will be. Well talk about that, next. Welcome back to inside politics. House republicans will try again at 1 00 p. M. Eastern, so 40 minutes from now, to vote on a new speaker nominee. Its not clear if anyone in the republican conference can et get the 217 votes they would need to win on the house floor. Congress has been Payroll Liezed for nearly two weeks now with no speaker, and the way forward is very, very unclear. Melanie zanona joins me now. I was saying before the last break, i have seen a lot on capitol hill. None of that comes close to the dysfunction thats happening inside the House Republican conference right now. Youre right. The sudden collapse of Steve Scalises bid has plunged the gop into further chaos and heightened this Leadership Crisis that they are facing. They are back at square one, and there are serious questions about if and how they are going to move forward, which is just a kind of crazy thing to say, but its absolutely the reality now. Now the current plan, as you mentioned, is they are going to huddle again at 1 00 p. M. To have a another Candidate Forum or try to rally around a new speaker. As of right now, there are two candidates in the race. That is jim jordan, who tried to run against Steve Scalise and came up short, and now we have a new candidate that just decided to get sba the race into the race. Thats austin scott. Hes against jim jordan. Really think about this in hes just running as the antijordan alternative. And i will tail light you theres a lot of sentiment in the party right now that they do not want to just get behind jim jordan. They are burned by how this process went down. A lot of people in the middle of the party are deeply concerned with the idea of a jim jordan speakership. Is the conference ready to elect jim jordan . Very close. Theres still some holdouts that i understand. They need to be talked to individually. Whats your level of concern about jim jordan . I think i laid that out yesterday. Has that changed at all . Not overnight. Thats a mystery that is wrapped in ini guess ma. The bug picture is hes going to face a difficult time trying to get the 217 vets hes going to need on the house floor. So they will have another election where they get behind closed doors, elect someone new and then they have to go to the floor. They are also dealing with attendance issues. A number of frustrated law miccers decided to skip can down. But as of right now, no consensus, no speaker and not ability to govern. Im going to keep it clean. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. I actually want to go become. Were going to have a discussion about this in a minute. I want to go back to israel. Nic robertson is live. What are you learning . We have just learn ed from te Israeli Defense force they have put some troops across the border into gaza in the past 24 hours. They call it a local, im looking for the language here exactly, a local raid. So a limited incursion, a local raid is a language they use to describe the troops that they have sent across into gz is a. Its not clear how many they have sent across. Its not clear yet what their mission was. Its not clear if their mission was successful. Its not clear yet if they had any casualties. But this is the First Time Since the weekend, since this big buildup of forces that we have heard from the diidf this they have sent troops inside the gaza strip. They say this was over the past 24 hours. The indication seems to be that this was limited. And the indication seems to be that it is over now. Those troops are out. That would perhaps be within the sort of expected operational parameters for Something Like this that the idf would not announce Something Like this while they had forces over the Boarder Inside Of Gaza itself. It really is Interest Ing Tht they did make this public. And you said very clearly that we dont know what the mission is right now. You would think it might be too full. They located some of the terrorists or some of the higher ranking officials in hamas. But what does it tell you that we know this Information Nou . Theres another thing to add to that mix of what it might be as well. It might be going into recover bodies. It might be going into recover soldiers who died over the weekend. It could be as simple as that. But what it speaks to, what it speaks to is that israel is more and more on a foot ing where it can go into a dangerous area for troops and be ready to protect itself and carry out a mission. Its indicative there will be more missions like this to come. Until we get the details of precisely what it was, it was more than just a body recovery, then that will tell us that they are really on a Forward Footing at the moment. Thank you so much for that. I want to bring back colonel cedrick lathen, who will give us perspective on what nic just reported. What are your thoughts . The key indicator here is that this was a series of small raids. Every single one of the options you talked about, possibly a hostage recovery mission, possibly the business about going after Senior Leadership of hamas, or the recovery of the remains of dead iz relaty soldiers, all of those are possibilities. Im thinking its either number one or two. What they are looking for would be a perfect thing for Israeli Intelligence to recover. In the wake of the debacle on the strategic front. Where there are special Operations Forces come in and actually have a successful mission. We dont know yet whether or not the mission has been successful. We have no idea what the targets were. Where special Operations Force gos in and have very fine targets that would go in and they would be able to take actions on them and meet limited obje objectives. Im just being told in my ear that the idf says that they were searching for hostages as part of this raid. We do not know if that was successful. What does that tell you . So the likelihood is very high that we might be disappointed of the outcome of this because of the way hamas operates, but we could see hopefully some success, but i dont want to give anybody false hope at this point in time. Its very early in this idf, if things are successful. At some point, they are going to announce that they have rescueds hostages and that would be a big political as well as Military Victory for the israelis. It would also clear the way for further incursions from an operational standpoint on the military side, further incursions of a conventional nature if they choose to do them in gaza. So were kind of in this environment now. So if this was a Hostage Rescue Mission or trying to find out where the hostages are, that would be a classic special Operations Mission and it would be something that would have a high payoff for the israeli political and military leadership. Thank you so much for jumping on and helping us make sense of this breaking news. Fascinating and important breaki

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