Evening. Im Erin Burnett out front tonight. A Swing State Surge new polls this Evening Show the Vice President s campaign is picking up speed and crucial Battleground States. That includes pennsylvania, where Kamala Harris has now opened up a Sixt Point Lead 51 to trumps 45. Now, that is outside the margin of error in michigan, 50 of likely voters right now backing harris 45 trump. The Race Razor thin those still in wisconsin, just one point separating the two candidates. These three states are the exact same three that harris is targeting this week. She was just in pennsylvania tomorrow, michigan again, friday, wisconsin today, a major move by the fed that frankly could end up having implications of helping harris, the Central Bank cutting Interest Rates by half a Point Double what had been anticipated. And this is why that could be really important, right . Interest rates go down, that has impacts for everyone but after the fed cuts rates on average, all The Way back to 1974, the markets go up. Markets have gone up by more than 5 after three months on average since 1974, 10 after six months, and 11 after a year. And that may be why trump is crying foul the economy to kind of buy that much so i mean, theyre not just playing Politics Economy would be very bad, or theyre playing politics. One of the other but there was a big guy well, do you know where trump was standing when he said that he happened to be inside a bar in new York City. So let me just go back to those Swing State polls, including the one that i led the show with pennsylvania that has him losing by franklin overwhelming margin. A state that if harris wins and is really, really hard for her to lose the election, maybe youd Think Trump would be in pennsylvania or another one of those Swing States. But he was there in new York City. And as i speak, hes about to hold a rally in uniondale, new york now that area is a republican stronghold. But of course thats just one area. The campaign says its given out 60,000 tickets. Right. So you can have a successful rally there, but heres the thing. Trump lost new york by 20 percentage points in 20202016 so hes being delusional when he says this i love new york, i always love new york and were going to give new york a big play. And i leave here i mean, you see the crowds and so friendly i love new york. I think we have a real chance of winning point spread, you know, maybe when biden was at the ticket that was actually they were starting to be some serious conversation. There really hasnt been any of that sense, but that may be why democrats are all too eager to welcome trump to new York State Party Chair Tonight saying quote, Id Love to have im here because anytime hes a nassau county, hes not in pennsylvania. Hes done It Wisconsin and michigan. Hes not an arizona, nevada, georgia, North Carolina, so we can stay here. I think its a real good use of his time. Alayna treene is at the rally in uniondale where trump is going to appear in a few moments. So alayna, why is trump in new york . Well, erin, all of the questions that you are asking is exactly what im hearing, not just from democrats and others, but republicans as well. A lot but people are questioning why Donald Trump would just 48 days until Election Day is spending time in a state where his campaign recognizes that this is not a battleground. Now before trumps part, he argues and insists continuous like that. He thinks he could win in new york. But in my conversations with Donald Trumps team, as well as his allies, they recognize that this is its not a strategic move coming here today. Instead, they told me that a lot of this, whats behind this visit is steeped in nostalgia of Donald Trump grew up in new york. He loves new york and hes always wanted to hold a large rally and a big arena in new York City or in new york itself particularly ever since he went to them bronx and did an event there in may and thousands of people came out to support him. Now, ill actually remind you, erin, that a couple of months ago, Donald Trumps team actually talked about trying to do something at madison since square garden, of course, the logistics of that, the size of Madison Square Garden just wasnt feasible. So this is kind of how theyre settling here. But at the same time they record, they argue that this is close to a lot of Media Markets that it will get played and Battleground States that this is a town where theres a lot of blue Collar Union but work for Small Business owners, so theyre really going to be targeting trump with that and talking about the Economy Tonight and immigration if Donald Trump can stay on message. Erin. All right, what well see what happens obviously theyre big rally in nassau county. Alayna, thank you very much all right. Im joined by my panel, so lets go first to the former governor tim Pawlenty And Governor youve got harris ahead of trump in these new Swing State polls and the pennsylvania numbers, obviously, i just kind of Hit A Pause there. Obviously its one poll, but they do sort of stop you in your tracks. Governor because you know, if she wins pennsylvania shes gotten most cases has to win it to win. She has some other paths, but if she does, when it is really hard for her to lose, are you worried, governor about polls like these . Well, it does begin to show a trend that shes opened up a lead in this race. Now, keep in Mind Trump traditionally under polls, most professionals would say by 123 or 4 . So thats still puts him within the margin of error, but i think its fair to say she has a lead and going into this, he had an advantage on the issues that Swing State voters care most about Swing Voters in those states care most about namely the economy, but really inflation and also illegal immigration. And hes been unable to fully focus well and effectively on those issues and he gets distracted by a lot of other stuff former congressman rose that those polls, and i know, you know, people can cherrypick polls where everyone, but the governor is accurate, right . There has finot trend. And youre seeing it now, youre seeing it in swing polls. Youre seeing it in more national polls. Do you think she really has opened up a why a wider margin here . Absolutely. Look, its not just about the actual margin in this one poll when it comes to polls, particularly at this scale, you have to look at the trend and the momentum is denial on the Vice President s side. And the only assumption that one could make is that momentum will continue to the next poll. You see a potentially even wider margin, but the governor also made a Critical Point there, which is in the past President Trump has kind of under poll, there has been this silent trump voters that you cant even model. I would argue that this time around, thats going to be the case for the Vice President with her significant Momentum And Messaging to Gen Z voters really young voters who arent getting really young, theyre not getting pulled, theyre not being done, not the models theyve never voted before. We could see the margin even larger. And that well, that would be quiet hey, something because that would be obviously in the us The Way the u. S Voter World is divided. That would be a huge Victory Lulu though within the polls, the governor does point out immigration and the economy, right . And trump is ahead on those issues, even in these polls, the Economy Voters say is the most important issue. Harris is still trailing, trailing trump on that. The Rate Cut and i mean, i just was putting Market Performance after Rate Cut on average. Know, you can delve into that in different ways. And trump is correct when he says when you do a Rate Cut double of what is expected, sometimes that indicates economic weakness that could also be true. But this Rate Cut really might matter yeah, it might matter. And i just want to note these numbers. I mean, lets think about what Kamala Harris was where biden was when we started all this and the race is really narrowed on these key issues. Were talking about. The economy shes only a few points behind him aggression, i would argue her weakest issue, only a few points behind. This does show that her messaging, her outreach has actually worked. And so i think first of all, theyve got to be cheering this. I know its only one poll, but, you know, this is going in the right direction. Its good news for them on the issue of the Rate Cuts. Also good news. I mean, that is why Donald Trump is alleging that this is politically motivated. Of course there is no evidence of that. The fed has been very, very careful to message the whole time that the only thing that theyre looking at is the data the politics of this, but of course, the politics matter. And this is Something Everyone ive been waiting for, and its going to have a big effect. Max, it comes on the day that the Teamsters Union says its not going to endorse anyone which is significant. This is the first time that the Teamsters Union has not endorsed the democrat since 1988. Okay. Ancient history and their internal data show members backing trump over harris 60 to 34 Thats Trump over harris when it was biden and Trump Biden was winning i mean, that talk about a swing. Sure. That is that is unbelievable. That makes all the rest of this look like absolutely nothing chump change what, what do you see there well, certainly for all the talk that we have, the euphoria around the Harris Campaign this does represent an area of Potential Improvement down the road an area that she definitely needs to focus on. But this also speaks to something much larger than this election, which is politics in an age of trump, where you have literally the Teamsters Union Coming Out, not against but refusing to endorse the party that saved their pension in the american Rescue Plan fusing to oppose the party that opposed supporting their pension by voting against that very same bill. And a clash of economics and culture. And its exactly what the democratic party needs to focus. Governor pawlenty, when you look at this and, you know, Teamsters Union, i mean, that biden was winning over trump and now its harris. Trump is winning over harris 60 to 30, 34 i mean, governor is this about Race And Gender . What is this about when you look at a swing that huge well, my dad as a Truck Driver was a teamster. Ive been a former Union Member myself. And for a lot of years now you can see the separation between these unions as organizations and the Rank And File people who are the members of those unions and trump for all of his other challenges, has been successful in some political jujitsu in attracting labor, the Rank And File laborers to his campaign and in exchange, the democrats have picked up a folks who are more highly educated, more woke or whatever if you talk to the Rank And File people who are driving around in vans and trucks with ladders and doing the work of hard labor in this country and you talk to them individually they are very skeptical of a leftward lurch in the country. One of them told me not too long ago after being working on his hands and knees his whole life with arthritic hands. He said you know, i was in the military. Ive worked my can off my whole life and im not voting democrat this time as a lifelong a democrat this time because they think im privileged just because of the color of my skin thats one little glimpse into how the democrats lost Rank And File labor. I would disagree with that. I mean, nine out of ten years unions of the major unions in this country has endorsed Kamala Harris, the teamsters, i think stands apart from many reasons, it is a more conservative leaning union. And in particular, trump has been successful with men and, you know, not all members of union our men, if you think about in nevada The Union there, the culinary Workers Union and others. I mean, there is this idea that laborers working with your hands, thats a very traditional idea of what labor is in this country. But there are many service workers and others in this country than dont see things the same way. All right. Well, thank you all very much. I appreciate it and appreciate the conversation. And next, we were just talking about the teamsters, Tim Walz is Kamala Harris is secret weapon with one key group of voters. Who are they were going but to delve into this in the latest of our voters outfront series, plus israel declaring a new era of war, twoway radios exploding today after thousands and thousands of pagers blew up in peoples hands and pockets yesterday. How exactly did they do it . We do have some new details coming in night for you and the legendary journalists, Connie Chung like youve never seen her before. Were going to talk about it for Career Role models, being fired from her job as Dan Rather has coanchor i think that if i were a man or a plant, hes so would have not wanted that thing, there to share got news for you is coming to cnn this fall pros and cons less pro, hosted by Roy Wood Jr. Row with Amber Ruffin with michael ian black. Oh, okay. What are the cons we could run out a news by then oh no, no. The world is still on fire thank goodness. 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How is she going to sit in a room with the adversaries of america if she wont even sit down for a friendly Media Interview it comes as harris is turning to Tim Walz to help cut into a crucial source of Donald Trumps support. Men. And Jeff Zeleny is in North Carolina for tonights Voters Glass Ceiling arent enough. We need to make sure that that Glass Ceiling is shattered and Kamala Harris, stepson Tim Walz is hard at work on one of his most important assignments. You thought Kamala Harris can take care of herself . Our job is to do the blocking and tackling and cover her back. He and his Running Mate rarely discussed gender, yet the Gender Gap may help decide the election strong support from women has put Kamala Harris within reach of defeating Donald Trump 48 days to go, her campaign is racing to win over another critical set of voters, Men Itll be phenomenal to have the first female president and thats exciting