So, what allen, will whoever else commented, he mustve been looking at scam artists, or something. They do not require they required a lot of paperwork and proof of income and situation, but they do not require us to pay upfront money to modify the loan. Unfortunately there is a balloon payment at the end of our mortgage, which scares me because if i lived past that stage, we have that to worry about. For now, we are in our home, and we live in a beautiful part of florida, near the beaches. Homes around here can vary from , dependsn to 100,000 on where you are at. We are kind of in the rural area, so we got a good price. Host got you. Just a tease you about our conversation coming up, and invite from the New York Times this morning says that vice has talkedoe biden to advisers about a possible look at a president ial run. No formal announcement yet. If you have not heard, a Candidate Forum is taking place, and more recent polling also taking place as well. We will com have a discussion about polling. , a democratic pollster and strategist, and a republican strategist, David Winston, will join us. Bloomberg reporter Michael Riley will join us. We tease you about our Newsmakers Program earlier. It comes right after this program. Senator Richard Shelby, the chairman of the banking, housing, and urban affairs commission. He spoke about squabbling as ast republican senators topic of leadership in the senate. [video clip] shelby i think theres a lot of tension in the senate, and the house too. There is some tension in our caucus. You have witnessed some of it in recent days. Weve a lot of people running for president of the night days out of the senate. That brings a different dimension to everything, and i guess a different perspective. That but you have been in the senate a long time. Is this tension something you have not experienced before . Can you harken back to different points when there was disagreement in the republican conference and the senate like what were seeing right now . It is probably more tension than i have seen and a long time. I go back to when senator dope was majority leader. He ran the senate well, i thought. People did not surprise each other. Recall senators attacking each other. It is a different game today. Why do you think that is . What has changed . That is a good question. I dont really know what has changed, other than that there are a lot of people running for president. There are a lot of people with different issues, and they want it now. They wanted to happen immediately. They want things to change immediately. People come to the senate sometimes, and they want to run the senate. It doesnt work that way. Or the house. You said you didnt think that anyone wanted to shut the government down, but sanders, like ted cruz, have raised the possibility of doing just that with the efforts to defund planned parenthood. Do you think that is a scenario that would play out in the fall . Shelby i hope not. It is not good for the democrats, not good for the republicans, and not good for the country. It sends a message that we are ineffective. That is from art Newsmakers Program, senator Richard Shelby is our guest. That is right after this program. For the next hour, a discussion about the campaign in 2016. Stefan hankin, democratic pollster and strategist. Joining us as well, David Winston, a republican pollster and strategist. How much attention should be to polling . Be paying guest it is the most important thing. For most americans, it is a little early. For those of us in the beltway and political junkies, this is what we live and die by. Look, we are still 45 months away from the first primary for both democrats and republicans. We have a long way to go until the general start. It is early. It is fun to look at, but what we are seeing in the polls now is not necessarily indicative of comewe will be seeing, 2016. Side, on the republican polling is critical given that is how they decide who will be in the debate. It is very important for all those candidates to be able to be on that stage. In this particular situation, but where our research is playing is critical. Host when it comes to the fox debate, and the polls will be the factor of getting in the debate, what polls are they looking at . What numbers are they looking at . How do they determine margins of error . Guest i dont think that is particular clear at this point. All of the polls will have margin of error. Be a on stage,l and you have 15 candidates. The eighth twot the 13th or 14th spot, they are all within what you described as the margin of error, a range of accuracy that a poll can get to. A person could be. 8 behind another person, they dont get in, and that is well within the margin of error. Going to the other point, im not sure what polls theyre going to use at this point. There is another point, what is the methodology . Percent of that poll will be independence versus republicans. There will be some open primaries, some close primaries, and how will that work out. Guest as a democrat, im sitting back, getting the popcorn ready. To davids point, what polls are you using National Polls, staples . National polls are the ones that get talked about, but they are generally meaningless. Candidates, it is probably clear, top three or four. There is some candidates that are pretty much at the euro, zero,ou pretty much at then you have the middle candidates. Im glad i dont have to deal with any of this fund. Even these polls, and though we may not be specific about which polls, are they by colleague people and nothing questions . Are they done by computer . How does that factor in . Guest i will defer to my colleague on this one. I have not pay that close attention to the role. My understanding is that they , three ora handful four of the major polls, and take the average of that. Guest there are five of them. They will be Major Network polls journal, nbc. They will be national. What is unclear is is that will just be a survey of primary which represents the universe of 1000, or will it be a subset of a National Poll. The margin of error increases significantly when the polling size gets smaller. Host if you have questions for them, you can call the numbers on the screen. Republicans, 202 7488001. Democrats, 202 7488000. For independents, 202 7458002. Dont forget, we talked about the fox debate, but cspan is participating in a form this week of president ial candidates, alongside the New Hampshire union leader. You can see that tomorrow at 7 00 in the evening. Not only on cspan, but also cspan radio and cspan. Org. Lets take a call. It is mike up first on the democrats line. Go ahead. Caller i want to talk a little bit about the arrangement. I think it would make sense to ,end the time for the debate and have everybody on that, but , ory half hour scramble rotate, who is on the stage. They dont as the same question to all 10 candidates anyway. Debate, with everybody on the stage for three hours, instead of two, and ask questions of all the different hours, andover three have them all out there. That is basically all i have to say. Host a question about format. Both of you can weigh in. Guest what i would say to that i agree with the caller in the sense that there should be some way to work out to get everybody on stage. They are all candidates. Youre looking at some people who may not get in who are twice elected governors from major states. Its not like they are minor players. I think there should have been some arrangement, some level of creativity, applied here to make sure that everybody had their chance in terms of participating. Host being in ohio, could governor kasich not make the time spot . Guest right now he is on the bubble. I feel it you are doing the ncaa who is on the bubble . He is one of the candidates on the bubble. When you think about it, picking he did verykasich, well last time, and the fact that he may not even be on stage is sort of not a positive sense in terms of what this debate should be try to capture. I agree with everything that david said. It is incredibly tough because if you did something where you will have some subset of the candidates for one hour, and the next, and the next, how you pick which candidates go when. Clearly there are some personalities in the race. Donalddouble chop if trump, if you are in the group with him, it will be a completely different dynamic. If you mix people at the top of the list with people polling at. Ne or zero there are a lot of questions why do not think there is a perfect answer, but i think it is a johne ridiculous that kasich, for example, to your point, governor of ohio, has run very well there, is very popular according to polls, and it will be in his home state, and he might not be on stage. A little strange. Ohio is up next on the end that line. Go ahead. Caller first of all, i live in ohio, and people think that case as rottenkasich is as can be. Here is the truth here. We are a police state. You can watch tv. We are a police state, a military state, where funds are taken from the good of the people i get into the military so they can go with the illegal workers. The way that this breaks down this ism from ohio regions of the country, certain groups of people. The last five wars were started by texans. My freedom of speech here is on the play right now. Collar, to the point of polling or the topic right now . Caller the polling is taking place out of the state of texas. Now my freedom of speech here, you are going to hang up on me. Dont hang up on me. Freedom of speech all of the media is controlled out of the south texas, georgia, florida. Part it is the jews and millionaires on the east coast. Four holes are taken from. If that factors in into any of your experiences. Guest bob koehlers are based in d. C. , california, new york, all over the place. The major media polls. The methodology is solid. It is getting representative samples of regionally and demographically. If you do not like the results your right, that is to not like, but in general these are tried and true methods and when you see pretty similar results come out of every single poll, it is eyeopening. Guest there are all centers all around the country, and what youre trying to do is your trying to get a neutral voice. Do you mean guest the person on the phone is no idea where they are calling from, in terms of accident or region of the country. Not to create any bias. That is for a reason, because youre trying to make sure that you get the best response from the individual youre calling you can get. Host from gettysburg, pennsylvania. Good morning. Caller good morning. In terms of the polling, the 17 , if i had candidates to select one i would have a great difficulty doing so because there are eight or 10 that i would support. Why dont you poll in terms of reading each candidate one to 10 isget a strength of the strength really lies instead of the skewing. Guest that is not a completely unreasonable here. That this point there are a lot of people who are looking at potentially having 45 be they are interested in. Would ors to choose, they will choose, but the idea of potentially giving readings is not a reasonable way to look at the selection at this point. Guest i agree completely. Understanding with media polls, they tend to i do not want to disparage them, but a lot of them are for getting attention and eyeballs on websites. They do not go to a great deal of depth. All of these campaigns, especially on the republican side are factoring in all these different types of what if this person drops a move what if this person comes in, what does that mean for us. That is the internal poll for the campaign. Ost questions to our guest both talked about how which attention to pay to early polls. A lot of numbers would again to Hillary Clinton. Likability of things came out. Clinton was seen as not honest, trustworthy, or to the problems of the people. Guest it is not great. In the big picture, our view of what is happening on president ial level is that the shiftstic demographic , this is hillarys race to lose. These things are smaller stories of the big picture. Certainly do need to address this. If youre 57 think she is not trustworthy they need to be going out and doing something about that. They do not want that number floating out there for but i do not look at the number is a she had trouble. Host do you think that number will change . Guest probably not. She is a wellknown commodity, from 1992 when bill was called she has been in the public. This is not a new person for the American Public wants someone makes up their mind about someone, they do not see numbers shift radically. Host would you question the source, the methodology . Guest it is pretty sound. Strangee somewhat 36 coming out, which of undecided and colorado is not true. There are not that many people up in the air. People consistently putting donald trump on top of polls . Guest there is a group of people, and this exists across the spectrum, republicans, independents, and democrats, there are a group of people who are unhappy about the direction of the country and have been unhappy about the direction of the country for a while. We do not think the political discourses addressing those concerns. So the people supporting donald ones playing 52 card pickup at this point. They just want to make a statement of that they are unhappy about the discourse that is not addressing their concerns. For the moment were just going to shake things up. Host do not never stay consistent, do you think . Guest because it is being driven by Something Else we were talking about this earlier. Herman cain led for five or six weeks, Newt Gingrich led for her six weeks, it gave the people time to work through a mindset and the issues they are dealing with. This goes last for four or five weeks. The debate coming up in terms of thursday will go a long way in terms of speeding that process of. Up. We did a National Holocaust will of weeks ago and a couple of poll weeks ago and we broke the groups down to three major ones. We were shocked to see that trump was leading in all three groups. We were expecting people who say they are to the right of the republican party, that was where he was going to get his support, but we found them in all three groups. My gut is that it is in war , and he has pan the ability to blow this up with one great statements that him way down. But the difference between this and 2012 was romney had the establishment wing of the party to himself. This go around you have rubio, you have bush, you will a few other people who are in that who up. Splitting that group we had a lot of people in 2012 running, but this year it is definitely showing different colors. Matt, independent line. Caller thank you. Cspan because the program you were to run monday night is probably going to be the very best of any room full of wiccans will be able to see from all of their potential very best for the republicans that they will be able to see from all of their potential candidates. We are looking at this thing, it will be trumps show. In one people will be watching thursday night because they see what trump has said, and the see how the other people up on stage react to him. Hats off to cspan for really giving the republicans a look monday night. I also heard earlier that the i enjoy their comments. Of thehat is the four cspan is participating in for me could watch it live and listen in on cspan radio. Mr. Winston, this could change perspective because the host or to try to nail them down on specific policy positions. Guest one thing that he has done is being very good of provocative statement. That gets review attention. To give you a sense of automatic that was, john kasich was announcing last week and cnn rather than send somebody to cover the case sick announcement and covered a donald trump speech in South Carolina in the and he a train one provided one by heading out Lindsey Graham cell phone number. As he goes and to this debate his assets in terms of generating news has been a provocative statement. Ultimately the electorate will decide based on policy. He has this tough transition and how you take those statements and turn it into covert policy. We will see what he does, because i think the panelists will be clearly trying to push him in that direction. The problem for all candidates can young remember generically in terms of the audience, can you remember any other statement that any other candidate made . Guest that is what gets him a lot of attention. And this is not a democrat or republican thing. All it takes,k of they are sick of the usual politicians. I believe every candidate is underwater in their favorability rating for unfavorables are higher than their favorable on both sides. A lot of this is just coming out of people tired of the single signal. She isnt in different, there is no arguing he sticks out with the challenge for both the moderators of the debate and the other candidate is how you handle this . How do you not turn this into the donald trump show . Host how you prepare . Again, i am completely glad im not on that side because you need to build up even bush and rubio are floating. Round 15 you have a long way to go, you have to get peoples attention on you as a person and what you stand for, and how do you do that with this going on on stage . You did have to say some crazy stuff, and youre going to want to react to it, but that is not helping or brand. To be ultimately it has what is your compelling idea that overwhelms the provocative statement that trump is making. Electorate is engaged with the provocative statement because there is the sense of frustration, but they has to be a where is this going to move the country . That is not a simple thing to do. Host caller from indiana. Caller i wanted to make the comment that all of these polls are skewed. Are you there . Host go ahead. You never have the polls at the right positions. Or places. He will call metropolitan annapolis, metropolitan chicago. You never take one county in arizona arkansas and go through them. Pay any attached to these polls because they mean nothing. In the last two or three pollsons we had all the say this, and then we had a landslide that we never see n. Donald trump has more brains and knowhow when it comes to running this country or anything if you wanted to put his mind to it than all of them together. What have they done . The Community Activist . I do not understand why everybody gets so enamored with the person. As for john mccain, and his state in arizona, does it bother him at all the screen door . Host a lot of people on twitter this morning briefing up the skewing questi