Held a discussion on the state of u. S. Transatlantic relations and had different European Countries are addressing issues, including russian aggression, trade, and immigration. This is an hour and a half. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us here. My name is rick jones, vicepresident and director of the program here a the brookings. Its my pleasure to welcome you for todays event hosted by the brookings center. This event is part of expanding with our partnership with the brookings transatlantic initiative. This is a multiyear platform that will spur a range of new activities not only on global issues, but that the transatlantic partners can get together. Were grateful they recognize that the value that brookings brings to this is our in depth high quality and independent research. Were pleased to be able to announce a fellow that will be joining us and add capacity to our team in answering questions in the relationship and as you see in todays discussions those are substantial. Challenges faced in europe are numerous from an upsurge in nationalism and populism to turmoil following the brexit decision and concerns after the financial crisis and great exit crisis, slow growth, high unemployment. Russia efforts to destabilize Eastern Europe and the ongoing refugee crisis. Of course, the United States has a variety of its own issues to be working through which adds to the complexity of the challenge. Were approaching a pivotal European Election in germany. And these issues are shaping up not only to be central to those politics, but to the broader european debate as a whole and would i say in both cases, both in the United States and europe, these debates are con straining in the way were working in the world and tackling global issues. So i think the discussion today is extraordinarily timely and underscored the need for this expanded efforts on the Transatlantic Relationship and on the work we can do together. We are going to be building on that effort here at brookings. As you know, our team has had changes. Fiona hill, director for center for europe and the United States, joined the white house for senator senior development. Im pleased they found new leadership in tom wright and he has a book in which the Transatlantic Relationship is located. And we have a couple of other folks joining our team, which is terrific. Victoria newland, who until recently was assistant secretary of state for europe, will be joining the team. So will our current president , he sits down later in the fall and jamie and nicole have joined the team and our french visiting fellow who joins the team now. So as you can see, were adding considerable intellectual and power to power power now i am ill turn it over to my friend and partner who will say a few remarks and well get under way with the meat of the day. Christian. [applause] thank you, bruce. Our distinguished panelists, ladies and gentlemen, a very warm welcome from my side and a big thank you to our colleagues at brookings for hosting us here today in d. C. My name is christian. Im at it is a pleasure to see so many guests and members and familiar faces at the Transatlantic Community for our initial tich or in short the bbti. When asked about the state of transatlantic partnership, recently told press there has quote, unquote never been so much uncertainty in the history of the germanamerican relationship as there is at the moment. Whether or not you agree with the statement i think its beyond doubt were facing one of the most difficult periods for Transatlantic Relationships in decades. This is among many reasons why the Brookings Institute have expanded our cooperation and under the roof of the bbti and its two pillars, High Quality Research and programming, brookings scholars are scaling up research and analysis on the most pressing transatlantic issues and challenges of our time. Over the course of the next year, our two institutions will host a series of events on both sides of the atlantic, to build and expand a resilient transatlantic work, contribute between the United States and europe and to reinvigorate the transatlantic cooperation on global issues and social cohesion. Which is an issue, a challenge, not only in europe, but also in the u. S. , i guess. The topic of todays panel, the future of europe as bruce has said could not be more timely. The challenges that the eu currently faces are enormous and as current German Foreign minister recently put it, have brought the historic project of the eu to the brink of collapse. In the economics sphere, lingering concerns about the future of the euro zone and pro growth and persistently high unemployment rates and many eu countries continue to put pressure on politicians and the european project. And the Foreign Policy externals like increasing authoritarian governments of turkey and russia and Trans National terrorism, on this day, another sad note with the events unfolding in the city of london. All of these challenges test the European Union. One of europes biggest concerns is the large flow of refugees and migrants from africa and the middle east. Since 2011 civil war sent the implosion of the europes neighborhoods, with a massive refugee crisis with several Million People headed to the European Union. One dimensional populous politics, of fear as well as tendency of National Isolation slovakia, looked at the Fair Distribution of refugees among the eu countries and ultimate contributed to brexit and other parties some of which Harbor Strong antieu and xenophobic sentiments. In germany current polls show the right wing alternative for germany to possibly rank third in the upcoming federal election later this month. But, i mean, giving the somewhat uncertainty of polls these days, fifth or sixth place would be possible as well. Fifth or sixth place would be possible as well. This continues to challenge of the project from within. Even the relevance of the relationship is being contested. It is only consequential that the bbt is focused topic must nationalism and xenophobia in european politics with the comparative perspective on similar developments in the u. S. In order to assess the character and dynamics behind them and the constraints they place on Transatlantic Relations. Notll not cool i will come to an end without some hope and optimism. We might not have a sense of humor, but we can be very optimistic. Ins years elections austria, france, and the netherlands proved that many citizens dont believe in the european project as a promise for a better peaceful future, and therefore i am looking forward to the german elections now, because even candidate might come in third place and finally have to face the democratic parties on the established platforms of the democratic system, which i think will be something to look forward to, we still have the that the germany choice is between two real europeans and two democrats who run for chancellor. I look forward to todays insight from the Panel Discussion as well as the following keynote conversation. Do, i thankher a you very much for your attention and look forward to an engaging, thoughtprovoking day. Thank you. [applause] thank you, christian and to bruce. We are excited to be working together over the next few years. My name is tom wright. Im delighted to tear a terrific panel on the future of europe and looking at the Transatlantic Relationship and looking forward to the conversation after this. We have a terrific lineup. I will briefly introduce everyone. Biographies,ong which i will not get into. The newased to welcome visiting fellow in the center for the u. S. And europe and with the planning staff in france. We are excited to have her for this program, the first of many in the next few years. William drozdiak has a new book out this week. Yet, but iead it encourage everybody to do so. It is a terrific look at the state of the eu and where it might be headed, his thoughts on that in a few minutes. Kemal kirisci is the director of the turkey project at brookings. Without further or do, lets , because you have a new imported book out this week. You took many years talking to the Senior Leaders in europe, many officials about this thatkable set of crisis affected the eu over the last five years. There were many people who said, in washington, how do you think about it today in terms of the optimism and pessimism . Rebound thisa year, that it might be about to turn the corner . I think there is a slight mood of optimism premeeting to an today thanks economic recovery that has been taking place over the last few months. I think the landscape is more fragmented than ever. The income gap between north and south is worse than ever. Exacerbated by the economic crisis over the past 10 years, and there is a split between , as we have seen the worsening relations between with polandermany asking for more reparations, which is a very raw, emotional subject. Also, the battles that poland and hungary has been having with brussels. They seem to be turning their on Democratic Values in terms of cracking down on free press and the judiciary. There is going to be a continuing struggle to sort this out, even after the german election. There is a presumption that chancellor merkel will get a fourth term. Crises,ed to the recent the refugee flows have been stopped from turkey into greece, but they have continued from andh africa into italy spain, which is creating a lot of xenophobia and tension. To get russia to play a more cooperative role is still continuing. There is a new resurgence and belligerent russia this week. Conducting wargames in and around belarus, which has troubled a lot of people at nato. Four users ago, it was a prelude to their military involvement in eastern ukraine. Is ad that, there difficult negotiations with britain on the exit from the European Union. There have been some there has been some buyers remorse in britain, but i dont think it has reached a level where it reach awhere they will new referendum and possibly stop the removal. Chose, which has the Fastest Growing economy in europe of the past 10 years, the wave of populism is not really the populist Movement Still remains entrenched power. The classic divisions between right and left are being replaced in europe between populist nationalists and globalists. Just as the weight is in the u. S. This is the big challenge over the coming years for the west. West isthe fate of the at stake, and it is going to take great political courage to get this resolved. Thank you. Some people say that germany has an incredibly boring election. Very little excitement, which i think everyone in the britain in britain and the u. S. Would trade for in a heartbeat. There is a question about what chancellor merkel, presumed she is to be reelected, will do in the next four years, particularly with france. Could you talk to us about how you see germanys role and the wider context in europe . Thank you very much. I am glad to see everybody here. I take that as a complement to europe any Transatlantic Relationship. I think you can say it is a boring on the surface, but germans are always a little bit nervous about their own country. I am feeling nervous. The asd ct that afd is now an explicitly antiimmigrant and in some ways hassemitic party and refused all called all calls to distance itself from the more openly rightwing extremist movements, the fact that it is even about to enter with dozens of members is, frankly, deeply disturbing to me, although christian, i agree with you that having them exposed to the glare of public certainly, having them working with others is probably going to reveal a lot of their weaknesses. In the course of the last food years, they have made it into 11 out of 16 state legislators. Case, their is the performance as legislators has been abysmal. Some of their most egregious figures are also members of the european parliament, like other movements. They are collecting hefty salaries, made raucous statements, and contributed very little or nothing at all to the business of governance. Think the world is coming to an end because of that, but it will change the nature of german politics. Goingnow, they have been from Single Digits where they have been in the polls throughout the summer, and in fact german polls could have been said to be rocksolid until recently. Now, the spd is plummeting to 20. I have friends taking bets they could go down as far down as 18. Fd has been moving up to 12 or so. Half of the voters are not decided yet. There is earned for surprises. Surprises. Room for because we have a multiparty system, it is highly unlikely the next chancellor is not going to be Angela Merkel. That is of intense concern to her own party and everybody who wants to be her successor and two germans, but it what everybody is would like to know is, what is germany going to do on the front of european and transatlantic politics . Waiting a huge it into there is a huge agenda there is a huge agenda waiting period the job of restarting the european project in the transatlantic alliance, sutent to some degree starts next. Merkel wouldly stay . Have term doesnt limits in its constitution, but it would be the only other chancellor who has never tried for a fifth term. Then, he said the position of the german president had been clearly underrated and had more power and he was going to run for that. Since he was already into his 80s at that time, i think his party told him that was not going to happen. Merkel isat susceptible to the kind of delusions that he was subject to. I think she is not going to do that. There has been speculation about her jumping off to some other position. I dont think she would do that. Would serve to the end of my something happened to stop her. Then, she would step down. To know about Angela Merkel that differentiates her from other career politicians in the world is that she is not meeting. Is not needy. I dont think she needs the spotlight to exist. I dont think there is a switch in her that this switched that gets switched by the spotlight of public attention. She genuinely thinks she has a job to do. We will be looking at this affection the secession debate. Happens to the centerleft . He social democrats successful triangulation that Angela Merkel , it is kind of a third wave it is kind of a third wave, and will be elements that want to do that prevail, or will be conservative elements that want to occupy the place that is ,ow being occupied by the afd will they try and regain that . One thing we might come back to is the fate of the spd is the fate of other european centerleft parties. Kemal, turkeys relations and germany have not been in great shape of the last year. Broader than that, there is the big question about turkeys 10 years ago, people were talking about pathways to e. U. Membership. What is your perspective on this debate and how does turkey fit hanging in the balance, which way it will go . Not a day goes by without some excitement from turkey. Relationsturkish have been for some time. I would like to draw some parallels. If we were to go back 20, 22 years into the mid1990s, there was a similar situation then, too. Countries wereen terrible. Germany was reluctant to do arms purchases because the humans rights record of turkey with terrible. Was terrible. There was a member of the referring toe time ladies. Of the distance between then and now is that, at the time, there was a chance of community and including the United States. That had a big agenda for turkey. Into the it Transatlantic Community through the European Union, this is the time of the Customs Union was adopted. This is a time when the Clinton Administration turned over the leader of the pkk. Clearly, some bargaining behind closed doors. To introduceurkey some reforms, and eventually led and thecome a candidate negotiations started. , one, theence now commitment to anchoring turkey has been weakened. What was shocking for me from between marshals an article Angela Merkel is that social democrats should be turkey. Poor relations with one person while half of the country has against those. Mendments and referendums that is one important difference, the lack of commitment. The second one is that turkey of the time has still a western vocation. Very critical using bigger language towards the eu, the west, but at the same time, this was a turkey that was part and parcel of the project of moving along into the western world. This is where the difference lives right now. Ledis led by leader by a leader and it is difficult to talk about who was around him. Party thatnymore the he had founded. Then, it of what was is not there anymore. It is a very strange political ,arty that has, in some ways to thethe founders extent of removing them from and the list of founders. This is significant. At the same time, there is also therkey that is resisting drift away from the west. In turkey, we use the analogy of the train that is moving towards the west. The people inside it are rushing toward the east. That depiction is a good institutionally. Turkey is solidly inside the west. Economy, especially in the last couple years, its trade with the eu has been expanding. The only area to which its exports are growing is the eu and the United States, not russia. Direct investments are still coming into turkey, overwhelmingly from the west, and turkish fti is going in the other direction. There is a recognition of it i