Woman you go to wont go to dinner were a woman, fully closed, is at the table. Q anday, on cspans a. A conversation now, on security threats during the obama presidency. And, what is ahead for the Trump Administration. , whoar from lisa monaco served as president obamas counterterrorism and Homeland Security advisor. Good evening, everyone. Welcome to our 2017 Terry Sanford distinguished lecture with lisa monaco, to discuss counterterrorism in the trump era. I am pleased to kick off the yearlong celebration of Terry Sanfords centennial birthday. I would like to welcome any firstyear students. It is wonderful that you are here taking advantage of the program, tonight. Learning from visiting scholars is a valuable part of your duke experience. This is sponsored by the Sanford School of Public Policy, and the american grand strategy program. Take you to the faculty and staff and made this possible. The Terry Sanford distinguished lecture is made made possible by a gift from the William R Kenan trust. Terry sanford is a much beloved figure at duke university. He dedicated his life to Ethical Leadership and public. From 1961 toserved 1965 as the governor of north carolina. Sanford doubled state expenditures on public sick public education. He supported desegregation. Building on his commitment to Public Service, when sanford was president of duke, he established an institute for science and Public Affairs to serve as an Interdisciplinary Program to train future leaders. The Sanford School of Public Policy supports the primary appointment of over 80 faculty and researchers and houses one of dukes largest undergraduate majors, two masters programs, a phd program. And keeping of the spirit of Terry Sanford, the purpose of this lecture is to bring men and women of the highest personal and professional stature, to present to the duke community. Our Terry Sanford lecturer this evening is lisa monaco. She left the government after 20 years of Public Service. At theained Degrees University of chicago and harvard lost soul Harvard Law School and served under attorney general janet reno. Returned to, monaco a senior position at the Justice Department and in 2011, was asointed by president obama the assistant attorney general for National Security. An 2013 president obama appointed her to be assistant to the president for Homeland Security and counterterrorism. She served in the white house for the entire second term of the obama presidency. She is now a senior fellow at Ny Law School and the Harvard Center for International Science science and international affairs. The isanford was enough agent for two years. He popped the battle of the bulge during world war ii and iner the war he fought the battle of the bulge during world war ii and after the war he obtained a law degree at u. S. C. Before we begin if everyone would silence their cell phones, and please join me as well join me in welcoming lisa to for this to sanford very interesting topic. [applause] there is not an inch of space left in this building. Do you have a super social media following . Meis fantastic and it let echo the provost and welcome you to duke. It is great, great, great to be here. Thank you very much. I would like to start with an issue that has been on everybodys mind over the past two weeks, which is these historic storms that have caused such a devastation in the caribbean and texas and florida. Our hearts, in the duke thoseity, go out to all who are still suffering, trying to recover from the storms, and houston, in the keys, and on the islands. It is devastating. Thei know when you left white house, six and a half years after katrina, a big part of your responsibilities was still hurricane recovery issues. What are the big issues heading down the pike that the Trump Administration is going to be very serious issues by cleanup, recovery, rebuilding . To what should they be doing prepare for very difficult veryholocene difficult Public Policy issues coming their way . Lisa when i was preparing to come down here, i thought that duke is pouring out his heart and help to the communities down there. So, hats off to this community. Down with some students and fellows over the course of the afternoon. Owed byalready been w the folks here and at the work that you are doing. It is a pleasure to be here. Irma and harvey delivered a onetwo punch in the southeast. The immediate issues are going to be in restoring power, particularly in south florida, and getting crews into access able to get basic subsistence material and, generators, food, water etc. Fema is going to have to operate, and i think our kudos need to go to brock long at fema and the experts there who are doing a negative person job trying to manage both of these crises and putting the federal government assistance to bear. In the meantime, it is power, rescue operations, getting subsistence materials in there. Over the longerterm, from a strictly white house perspective, and having been in a role that had me juggling a number of different crises, and not only responding to the crisis, but, and it sounds boring, but focusing on the longterm implementation. Maintaining focus. For anya challenge white house. After the cameras go away, after the breaking news banners go away, there is a lot of hard work, in implementing the recovery. And that means bringing a full suite of tools to bear. It means housing recovery, a big issue in katrina. We ended up having the then sharingy of housing, attacks a task force with everybody from the army corps of engineers, understanding and thinking about how they were going to provide housing, rebuild, and focus on the housing issues, hundreds of thousands of people being displaced, in florida alone. Environmental issues, health issues, toxins in the floodwater, so there is a whole host of issues that the white house is going to have to focus on during have to focus on. Maintaining that focus means setting up a structure at the white house that can be led from the white house with very clear goals and objectives, to continue to implement. And it is going to be not weeks, not days, but months and years, for this recovery effort. Host lets turn to the second big issue in the headlines. The Security Council this week imposed another round of sanctions on north korea. I want to get to the highlevel principle here. Our position in north korea, for a long time, has been that kim jong on should give up, or the north korean government should give up its Nuclear Weapons nuclearize. D de is that a realistic position anymore . Possible that kim, who essentially believes these Nuclear Weapons are preventing him from being in the same boat as saddam was a, saddam he doesnt qaddafi , want to follow in their footsteps and he sees this as a guarantee against that. So what could persuade him to give that up, or has that train left the station . Back andhave to step think about, what would be our objective here . Endless think about, who is this guy . Who is kimi, and others, have us like, he is unhinged, trying to send a message that he is not a rational actor. The fact of the matter is he is exceedingly paranoid. He is indescribably violent. But, he is rational. Why do i think is rational . He is rational because, what you just said david, he is focused on maintaining the regimes hold on north korea. Nuclearoes view is capability as his ace in the hole. Im with jim klapper and other experts, which is to say that de not realistic. Is i havent seen any signs that that is realistic. We should be focused, i think, on deterrence. The keyuld also say, ingredient of deterrence is a credible threat of military action. While i have differed publicly with some of the rhetoric on this, about fire and fury and the like, i do believe a clear, consistent message, such as the one secretary mattis recently delivered, of military options being on the table, as is anactive as they are, important element of deterrence. Host if we are going to ultimately have to rely on deterrence, do we have to accept, mentally, that we can live in a world where kim jong as himactors such actually has the capability of launching a Nuclear Weapon at a large American City . Is that something we can tolerate . Lisa i think we can acknowledge that he, and we have seeing this steady march, and it has been a steady march, right . He is developing nuclear capability. We saw the most significant test a couple of weeks ago. Capability, we have seen a very significant test. Missile delivery, we have seen repeated, steady march on testing of the missile delivery system. Miniaturization. Miniaturization of a Nuclear Warhead that could be fixed to that missile delivery system. And we have seen some, and elite intelligence report, that one element of our Intelligence Community, the Defense Intelligence agency, that believes that capabilities miniaturization capability. I would like to see what the full Intelligence Community says about that but still, very concerning. And the fourth elements reentry. The ability to put that miniaturization capability onto the missile delivery system, and have it reenter from the earths atmosphere into the target. And that, our Intelligence Community believes, is not there yet. Still, we have seen a steady march and a repeated effort to attain those capabilities. But as somebody focused on the threat to the homeland, we have to be very clear about where kim n is, on that march. So we have to have a clear view of deterrence. We have been north koreas on that steady march to get those capabilities. We should be increasing our defense capability, and we are steadily doing that. We should be reassuring our partners and allies, and working with them, south korea and japan being first among them, quite obviously. We should be working on covert and other means to seven ties, derail, slow, and rollback the made,that kim jong un has and apply steady and increased pressure, including sanctions. And i give credit to, and i think the administration should be giving credit, for the success that states have had in the unanimous Security Council resolutions. But some of the weaknesses of some of them have artie been pointed out. But nevertheless, they have been unanimous resolutions and that has been very important. Own,e can do some on our as well. Unilateral sanctions from the United States. Pressure on china and chinese banks that continue to do business with north korea. Those are the tools that i think we should be employing, all toward, hopefully, a diplomatic solution to this. This week is also the 16th anniversary of 9 11. We held that this distinguished lectureship many time on this anniversary, so its a good time to reflect on that issue, which took a lot of your time in the white house, im sure. If youou reflect for us, look on one hand, 16 years, there hasnt been any sort of attack of the magnitude of 9 11 here. Knock on wood, of course. So on that grounds, u. N. Have to say you would have to say we have been quite successful. You would have to say that would be a good deal. Nonetheless these al qaeda, are incredibly resilient and active around the globe. In the state departments report on 2016 on terrorism and 2016, terrorist attacks caused 25,000 deaths and 33,000 casualties around the world. So, 16 years after the events of 9 11, how should we evaluate how the u. S. And the world is doing, against this terrorist threat. Lisa it is very important to reflect on it, and no better time than two days after that horrible day. You used the word resilient in describing our terrorist actors and terrorist enemies. It is not a word i would use, mostly because i associate that with positive traits. I think of communities being resilient, and individuals who have gone through great tragedies being resilient. Would, not to fight the hypo, professor, i would say we face a very adaptive enemy. That is an important distinction in my mind because it reminds us of where we need to go. To get to the heart of your question, how would i gauge our success or failure, i think by any measure we have been successful in diminishing the forat of a complex, indirected attack of catastrophic proportions, such as we faced and suffered on 9 11. Owing to the tremendous work across democratic and republican administrations, from the military, Law Enforcement, Homeland Security, diplomats, and we as a nation did a number of things to make that possible. We broke down cultural barriers to how we organize ourselves and share information. We changed our legal structures to make that more possible. D oure change structures and created new structures, including the i waszation that privileged to leave before i went to the white house, the National Security division of the Justice Department. To we built an apparatus enable us to have success against that type of 9 11 style attack. Now it hasnow it has diminished. To have a lot more did a lot more to do on that phase, which is the hallmark of the the radicalized individual, individual sometimes known as a olf, or homegrown terrorist. We have a lot more to do on that score. Because the network i described, that we designed after 9 11, is not designed or that threat. Because those threat actors, san orlando, the new yorknew jersey plot from last summer, charlottesville, those actors dont come into the net that we built if they dont have contact with International Terrorist groups, a Shadowy Group of hierarchical figures operating from caves in afghanistan, communicating with people here. If that is not the trait, that is the net that we built, and we need to construct a new one. How do you understand and see when something goes wrong in somebodys mind, such that they take a machine gun and kill 50 people in a bar in orlando . Do the work that we have to on this new phase is going to require partnerships, it is going to require innovation, working with it the Tech Industry on the role that social media plays in this, is going to require our communities. Our focus, post9 11, was partners, our local state and local Law Enforcement, and our international partners. This phase is going to require more from our partners here at home. And that is a challenge. Host security i will get to the homeland issues a little later. The great thing about being a professor is you get to push back again. Lisa you do. Host lets look at what bin laden was trying to do. A lot of people say he was a religious zealot out to kill people. But i happen to think he was a political actor with a political goal. He wanted to challenge the whole nationstate system put in place by colonial powers in the middle east. He really wanted to create this clash of civilizations between what he believed was the Muslim Community in the west. And he wanted to impose a big Economic Cost for its role of interventional is him, in the u. S. And you can look at all these goals, and 15 years later is, maybe some progress has been made on some of those things. Is this movement that al qaeda started, isnt succeeding nor is it being pushed back, is it failing that isnt succeeding succeeding, or is its being pushed back, is it failing . Lisa i think the picture you layout is a valid one. But there has also been tremendous division amongst the movement itself. The very nature of isis comes from a schism with al qaeda central. Support of your theory, professor, is what i think will likely be borne out, which is that bin laden has passed the mantle to his son, who has released for videos, i think, over the last year, or 18 months. So, is he the new leader of the Al Qaeda Movement . The alalready mentioned qaeda affiliate in syria, as in my role in the white house i was exceptionally focused on, which is why quite frankly, and the president was focused on it weeptionally, which is why begin the campaign against isis in syria and 2014. In syria in 2014. Factory inmb making syria was one of the first targets the United States it. So, that has never been far from my mind. On the other hand, we have seen metastases of the movement that bin laden tried to promote. Thein many respects, discipline that he try to impose on his organization to do forlex and lengthy planning attacks like 9 11. That discipline has eroded, and we have much more opportunistic and freelance operations, some of which we have had success against, some of which we have not. I think it has diminished in its cohesion, if nothing else. Start at a high level spot. Did the Obama Administration and the United States led the Syrian People down by not intervening in 2012, when the civil war was being heavily contested and there was a chance to topple the Bashar Alassad regime . There have been almost half a Million P