You all get a gold star for supervening the security in the building and being on time. We know there will be some stragglers but that is to be expected. I am jane harman, the president and ceo of the Wilson Center. I have to say it is hard to seem hard to sound hopeful about the subject we will address after the past week. Hundreds were gunned down last night in las vegas. I do not think we know yet what the gunmans motives were. Two women were stabbed to death in front of the train station in an isise by sympathizer, and there seems to be an unprecedented disconnect between our secretary of state and president on the strategy to walk north korea back on threats of nuclear war. Vice president pence was here a few months ago, he is an old friend of mine from our congress days. He told us the president s strategy of America First does not mean america alone. At the Wilson Center, we all hope Vice President pence is right. This is the fourth time the ambassador and the Chicago Council are here to release their survey of American Public opinion. It is a Great Partnership between the Wilson Center and the Chicago Council and in the parlance of this new report, we have an enduring alliance. It is also reassuring to learn good news in this report that americans continue to support an active u. S. Role in Foreign Affairs. Much of the vision for that role started with woodrow wilson, who was our 28th president , our only phd president , and who was serving 100 years ago today. Downstairs in our memorial hall, you all passed by there, wilsons words are inscribed. About his decision and that was controversial even to him, to bring america into world war i, he said and it really resonates now it is a fearful thing to lead this great peaceful people into war. But the right is more precious than peace and we shall fight for the things which we have always carried nearest to our hearts. For democracy, for the right of those who submit to authority to have a voice in their own government. For a universal dominion of right by such concert of free people as shall bring peace and safety to all nations and make the world itself at last free. At times like this as the audience in this room and online know, the center into the Chicago Council we think are needed more than ever to connect this scholarship and thought leadership to the global challenges we face. Welcome to our panel today washington the post , from the Chicago Council and congressman Mike Gallagher, a very able newbie in the United States congress from wisconsin. But first, before our panel starts, a brief video. President trump from this day forward, it is going to be only America First. America first. President trumps inaugural address, like his campaign, signals a departure from the last seven decades of american policy. They prescribed greater protection and trade, financial reckoning with our security allies, tightening borders, and withdrawing from Major International agreements. The 2017 chicago survey conducted for six months tested the appeal of these ideas among the American Public. President trump has criticized allies and argued that u. S. Alliances were not serving american interests. Americans believe maintaining existing alliances and building alliances are among the best tools. In addition, 69 say it is essential to security and for the first time majoritys of americans are willing to use u. S. Troops to defend south korea and to defend nato allies if they are invaded by russia. Compared to one euro ago, record compared to a year ago record numbers of americans now Say International trade is good for economy, for u. S. Consumers, and for job creation. In fact, perceived benefits of all Political Party affiliations. President trump has blamed trade deals for loss of a american jobs. On this, the majority of americans agree. Six in 10 say manufacturing jobs are lost due to outsourcing. Yet more americans say the Current Administration policies will harm rather than help u. S. Workers. Immigration was a central issue in the 2016 campaign, and remains a key pillar in President Trumps platform. 37 of americans cared to rise immigration as a critical threat. There are large differences between democrats and republicans. Among trumps supporters, nearly all see immigration as a threat. As the perceived threat from immigration has gone down, support for evidence to become citizens goes up. An increase from 57 in 2016. Conducted just weeks after President Trump withdrew paris from the climate agreement, results show six and 10 americans continue to favor u. S. Participation in the agreement. Overall, 46 of americans now consider Climate Change a critical threat. While not a majority, it marks an alltime high for the issue. 69 of democrats consider Climate Change a critical threat. The 2016 survey results show the attitudes that put donald trump and to the white house are longstanding and could strengthen once he was in office, yet the 2017 survey finds instead the ideas behind America First have not spread much beyond his court supporters. The politically challenged environment this past year, americans express enduring support for World Affairs and maintaining security of alliances, and key instances, americans have doubled on these. Public support has risen to new highs when it comes to defending allies, perceived benefits of trade, and a desire to grant undocumented workers citizenship. There are large differences between republicans who support donald trump and those who do not. Nontrump republicans are much closer to mainstream issues on these ideas. In the end, rather than embrace orientation of Foreign Policy, most americans recognize value and maintaining traditional security and trade relationships. [end video] good morning. Thank you for being here. To summarize, the poll indicates that while trumps core supporters remain supportive of his Foreign Affairs position, tighter borders, withdrawal from international agreements, those views have not really resonated with the majority of americans. In need many cases, fewer americans even among republicans support those views than they did a year ago. So, we found that more americans believe that existing alliances should be maintained. That International Trade is good for the economy. And for consumers like you and creating jobs. Fewer see immigration as a threat. So i want to ask each of you what you think is resonating with these views. What is the reasoning behind it . Is it that more americans are now paying attention to International Issues because conventional wisdom has been challenged . They have learned more about those issues as trump has addressed them . Or maybe they see those policies as being successful, that tight control of immigration has actually reduced the threat from immigration. Jane, why dont you start . Thank you karen. Hello again everybody. This panel obviously is a really impressive and i do not know that my views should be first it let me just raise a question. About the methodology. I did look at it and tried to figure it out at the polling was so off, most of the polls worse off during the election, my question is, did you really adequately poll trumps base . Even today in the new york times, there is a huge article about Donald Trumps views still resonating with his base. Maybe not with others. My first question is, what is your methodology . But i would say americans are smart. I always used to say my constituents were the smartest, as they were but they made very good judgments about who to send to congress. But a lot of people now especially with the advent of social media are very connected in the world and they their views i think are not necessarily shaped by what happens at a White House Press conference, there views are shaped by the people they know, the troubles they may come of the information they read. I think that is a good thing. I think there is a layered sense of getting information in this country. Some social media is an echo chamber on both ends. What i think a lot of people are smart and getting their information from many sources and that is good for america because i frankly think the views that you reveal in your polls are solid, mainstream views. That both parties should embrace. Maybe if you could also explain how you differentiated between republicans and Trump Supporters, for trumps supporters. We had some slides that were just up. It actually has the full methodology. There are ways you can measure. The way we be cited to define it was in a strict sense that we look at those people who have a very favorable opinion of donald trump, and that was about 26 of the overall public. And, then we also looked more closely adjusted republicans who at just republicans who had a very favorable view of donald trump. We found some interesting differences between what we call trump republicans versus nontrump republicans. There are a lot of different ways you can look at who said they voted for donald trump and we know most people when they vote they are motivated by partisan allegiances. Nine and 10 republicans ended up voting for donald trump even though they did not vote for him in the primaries. So that is how we decided to define them. When you look at overall Approval Ratings for donald trump it is about 36 or 37 percent and again, not all of those people necessarily have a favorable view of him. So that is the way we decided to do it, and it seemed to bear out. I think one of the key findings, one of the reasons we wanted to look at the differences between what we call core Trump Supporters, that is those who have a highly favorable view of the president , this would be late june, early july, and the rest to the extent to which a message from the president and his Foreign Policy messages are resonating among his base. The answer is they are resonating extraordinarily well, so our findings are very consistent with the idea that the president is maintaining his base in a very strong way. Secondly, where is the nonbase going . The striking finding, maybe not if you are living in the washington bubble per se, but the striking finding overall drained or undrained as they say is that there is a 7075 of americans who do not have a highly favorable view of trump. That does not mean they have an unfavorable view but they do not have a highly favorable view. That 70 has a pretty coherent worldview. There are differences between democrats and republicans and independents, but those differences are all much smaller than the differences between trumpnd the core supporters. Americans are resonating with those who have a highly favorable view of the president and the traditional foreign policies i would describe as being proalliance, profair trade, prointernational agreements, the kind of Foreign Policy we have conducted since 1945 as a broad bipartisan support behind it. That is an important finding because it means the world may not necessarily be changing as significantly, at least in the public sense, as the debate seems to indicate that we read in our newspapers and on our twitter feed. I want to add the other thing is that views that motivate the Trump Supporters immigration, what came out in our 2016 survey that immigration and trade were where people who supported donald trump or different in their view several the public but this has this disaffection in terms of our immigration policy and the fear of immigrants from republicans and the concern for jobs being a public concern and not an elite concern. That has been there for years, decades. So even without donald trump, these supporters, these people who hold these views, were still present in the population. It is just that donald trump was willing to voice his concerns and tap into their grievances in a way that no other candidate had done before. Something that is important, i would agree, i think while the average voter probably could not articulate to you why they think nafta is deficient, would suspect your average member of congress could articulate that to you. They do have a sense i think, and gut level sense of one things are not going well. I do think the International Environment has become sufficiently strong to the point, you know, never heard anyone in the context of my Campaign Come up to me and say im really concerned about the erosion of the rulesbased war. Nobody ever came up to me and said in the wake of orlando and everything we are seeing a broad, is it safe to go to a packers game . I heard that hundreds of times. I would submit that if our position in the world, the state of American Leadership of language to the point where they filed, reaches lambeau sealed, then we have a problem that the average voter can understand. I think donald trump tapped into that quite effectively but i would also agree that there are some good news in that survey to the extent we have brought bipartisan majority, 66 of democrats. 65 of republicans supported active American Leadership. That is a great thing. And digging into the numbers of top supporters, only 40 of core Trump Supporters say we should not exercise greater control. 64 of trumps core supporters say we should be the dominant role player and the far more saying isolation. Some version of american hegemony which i think is more like a jacksonian reaction being attacked, it is sort of an instinctive understanding where we are number one, the world is safer. To be safer and stronger we need to support our friends and punish our enemies. Simple as that. I think donald trump tapped into that. One of the things that surprised me about the survey, those majorities are quite high including to defend allies, although i was surprised to defend europe against russia was considerably lower than the willingness to defend south korea against north korea. People believe that the United States is the most influential country in the world. Alliances are the way to maintain that influence and that influence should be maintained. How does that coincide with views or the policy of the administration, that we should pull back, how do people reconcile that in their mind or how should they reconcile that, that pulling that will not only maintained that will increase influence since thats what they want. Who wants to let me take a stab at that. There are two things going on. There is a general support who believe alliances are an effective thing. A highly effective tool of american Foreign Policy, it is in the high 70s, low 80s in terms of the view that alliances are an effective way to help america achieve its foreignpolicy goals and that is reflected in the strong views of asia and europe. At the same time, Trump Supporters believe it has been too long for the United States to bear most of the burden and it is time for them to do more. A sentiment americans have shared since about 1952 and has been part of American Folklore at the administrative level to get allies to pay more. I spent three years banging my head on the table, not always successful. The president has made a very big issue for allies to be more defense. We tested the proposition of should the United States threatened to uphold its cookman mid commitment to get them to pay more, or should we use the former traditional way of diplomacy and Trump Supporters overwhelmingly think we should withhold commitment but other supporters and nontrump republicans and democrats and independents tend to think about 60 that we should use diplomacy. This is a valid debate we are having. To what extent can the United States use its power and leverage . To get allies to pay more for defense . I think what this is showing is that maybe the fact that the president is unconventional, maybe those are the kinds of tactics that will get the kinds of results we want to see which is to have more for defense. But to have a more stronger alliance. A couple thoughts. I think he has it about right. But i think the fact that we are engaged in the longest war in history in afghanistan and in over three presidencies there has not been the ability to contain actions by north korea developing a Nuclear Capability has affected all of us, and people are questioning whether traditional policies are working well enough. No, they are not working well enough. I was going to Say Something else about congress. My view is congress fell apart when i left in 2011, but Mike Gallagher is here to resurrect it. Congress has done something lately, insisting on maintaining article five of the nato treaty which the president came around to. First he did not embrace it than he did embrace it and so forth. So it is not just President Trump and whatever he may believe, and his views have shifted some. But there is a coequal branch of government, i will point out, that has