Almost three years ago, president obama and castro embarked on a historic opening in relations between the United States and cuba. The trumpgo, administration announced regulatory changes designed to partially roll back the Obama Administrations strategy of maximizing engagement with the people of cuba. A few months from now, cuba will undergo a historic leadership transition while reckoning with the economy, democratic challenges, and a relationship with the u. S. That is rapidly deteriorating as a result of trumps policy changes and still attacks against u. S. Diplomats. The diplomatic drawdown and have anna had a direct impact on this event as the suspension of Visa Services prevented us from bringing a speaker from cuba to participate in todays discussion. To help us make sense of all that has happened in recent months and assess what the future might bring for people in the u. S. And for u. S. Cuba relations, we are privileged to welcome three distinguished friends and colleagues with daegis of experience working on cuba. To my left is the executive director of the center for democracy in the americas. The nationalat Security Council and at the Cuban Affairs department at the state department and was previously a staff member on the Senate Foreign relations committee. Mike is an assistant professor of latin American History at Florida International university, specializing in modern cuba, cuban americans, and the caribbean europe he is coeditor of the volume, new histories of the cuban revolution. Joirge is from Harvard University and chair of the Harvard Academy for international and area studies, editor of various books and former president of the latin american studies association, and not least the member of a member of the interamerican dialogue. I would like to acknowledge our partners at the World Press Photo exhibition. For over 60 years, more than 4 Million People in 100 cities around the globe have enjoyed the work of awardwinning photographers. We are fortunate to enjoy a series today, which is evocative and stunning, pictures of everyday life in cuba. You will see these cycling throughout the discussion today. We want to acknowledge the of the ford foundation, without whom this event would not have been possible. I would like to ignore it to but here toes that are provide invaluable support to the rule of law program. Rest assured, the coffee and donuts were not provided by with that, we will dive into the discussion. Each panelist will speak for about 10 minutes for opening remarks, and then we will open it up for discussion. Comments afterr that. Emily . Emily thanks. If you were to put u. S. Cuba relations on a line graph and plot it with engagement on the y axis, it would be a jagged line, fisher. For sure. Two steps forward, one step back. But the longterm trend line is decidedly in the upper direction. This time last year, so october 2016, the Obama Administration released the sixth of six rounds of regulatory judges governing u. S. Cuba sanctions. Each round of regulatory changes was designed to increase the flow of people, goods, and information to and from cuba. These were couched in a larger thecy of engagement over final two years of the Obama Administration. The u. S. And cuban governments met regularly and engaged in dialogue on a number of issues and signed almost two doesnt twoal agreements doesnt Bilateral Agreements, which touched on issues such as Law Enforcement information sharing, property ship on health, designating sister marine protected areas. Really wideranging discussions on a number of issues. This time last year, we were on linetty steep part of the graph in the upper direction. , those twonything years of rapid progress toward normalization proves that the u. S. And cuban governments can cooperate and that the cooperation can bear fruit. That is really important, because after decades of not cooperating, it was not a sure thing that is cooperation could bear fruit. If you look at the less three that, in have seen fact, it did. This week, everyone is aware, and michael just mentioned it, we have had a downward take on the line graph with the release of new regulations governing cuba sanctions. The Treasury Department and Commerce Department governed the implementation of the sanctions for cuba, and they released some will changeat and rollback travel, u. S. Travel tracka, and the financial sessions with which u. S. Entities can participate in cuba. The state department, and concert with this, released a list of 180 prohibited entities with him u. S. Persons cannot engage in direct financial eccentrics transactions. This announcement was the fulfillment of a june and is meant that President Trump made in miami where he directed apartments and agencies to begin to draft these rules, so we have been expecting them for some time. I would argue that the downward tick that we have seen this week is not very severe. I will get into why. But the specific changes that were announced this week with regard to travel, individuals were previously able to travel under the peopletopeople category and are no longer able to do so. They are allowed to travel as individuals under the support for cuban people category. There is a new definition for that category that allows for people to stay at private bed and breakfasts, eat at private restaurants, and there is a requirement that individuals do Something Else to constitute a fulltime itinerary. But individuals can still travel to cuba. That is the big take away. Notably, the, most state departments list of 180 prohibited entities, a number of hotels where individuals cannot stay, a number of stores in old havana where individuals cannot shop, a number of Government Entities with whom u. S. Businesses cannot do business. In the coming days and weeks, and i know it has already happened in many respects, lawyers will be pouring over these new rules to determine what the avenues are for continuing engagement. It is important to note that engagement can continue. A lot of the progress of the last three years has been preserved. A u. S. Embassy in havana and cubans have an embassy here in washington. U. S. Travelers can still travel to cuba and enjoyed a lot of the flex ability that was implemented during the Obama Administration, general licenses, for example. Now travelers do not need to seek specific permission from the Treasury Department to travel. They can self certify that their travel meets the rules governing u. S. Sanctions. That remains in play. Dialogue will continue. The u. S. And cuban governments have made clear they will continue to dialogue on areas of mutual interest. Means, even, by any close to a full reversal of the sort of engagement we have seen over recent years. All this comes at a time where there is considerable momentum. U. S. Travelers are continuing to travel to cuba. In may of this year, we already reached the mark of the number of u. S. Travelers to cuba for the entire calendar year of 2016. This comes at a time where there is congressional momentum, bipartisan congressional momentum. Representative Rick Crawford has introduced a bill to allow for the financing, for the use of financing and agricultural sales, and there are now 44 republicans in the house on the bill. In the senate, a bill to lift the travel ban has 55 total senators signed on to the bill. That is a majority. So i think it is important to realize that there is a steady path of momentum from travelers, congress, and also the private sector. Last week, we saw john deere and caterpillar sign some pretty big deals in havana. Mayemonstrates that there these some negative news and negative rhetoric coming out of the u. S. Government, but it cannot quite put back in the bottle what was released over the last two and a half years. But there are challenges. I think we will hear more about those from other panelists. There is aample, leadership transition in cuba coming up in february. We do not know what that will bring. Currentlye operating as a skeleton staff and the Cuban Embassy in washington and in havana. This is the result of serious symptoms experienced by u. S. Diplomats and canadian diplomats, and an Ongoing Investigation is going on. The u. S. Has drawn down our diplomats from havana, and it is important to understand, issued a travel warning alongside it, but the travel warning is figured bureaucratically by the drawing down of our diplomats. The next step that the u. S. Took to expel cuban diplomats from washington or to request that 60 of the cuban diplomats from washington leave seems to be a step too far or a step that begs of question why in the midst an Ongoing Investigation did the u. S. Government ask the u. S. Diplomats andhere do so and away were where they reportedly handed a list of 15 specific names to the embassy, names that gutted the commercial section of the Cuban Embassy in washington . And the investigation into the serious symptoms experienced by our diplomats is ongoing, and we do not know what that will turn up. That while wenote have taken a step back or are on the downward path of the line graph right now, it is not quite as bad as it could be. But there are some challenges on the horizon. Michael thank you, emily. Mark, lets go to you. Mark good morning. Thank you for having me. I was asked to focus my opening remarks to the american it into then how we f present picture of u. S. Cuban relations, how we are responding to our being affected by what was just mentioned. It is no secret that there are vocal voices in the cubanamerican community that are behind the recent change in the policy announced yesterday. It begs the question is there a constituency there that supports these efforts or are there other voices . Let me start with context. Approaching 20 years, if i am not mistaken, Florida National university has everyted a rigorous poll year on cubanamerican Political Attitudes and opinions. What it shows is that there is a steady trend line of shifting onan ds bora opinion u. S. Cuban policy. There is strong support for the right of all americans to travel to the island. There is majority support for ending the embargo. But there is particularly strong support, almost universal, for the right of cuban americans to travel to the island to see family whenever they wish. So it is not surprising that of all of the changes that have been implemented in u. S. Cuban ,elations and policy since june this is one that has not been touched. I do not think that is a mistake or coincidence. Before the Obama Administration, one of the other restrictions in place was a quite severe limit on the ability of cuban americans to visit or see their families. The Obama Administration got rid of that early on. I think those against engagement that it have recognized is the political loser for the to start telling the constituents when they can go see their mom. , the broader noise might not register as much as far as their own ability to go back and forth. There are other clear ways that the community is affected by recent developments. To the extent that there are less u. S. Visitors overall, the economy, that may be impacted. Cubanamericans a travel to the island do not only go to hug mom, they go to bring cash, on the order of several billion dollars a year. Folks support loved ones on the island, but it feels a rich transnational economy, a supply chain by suitcase, if you will, for many sectors of the economy. Also, the black market has to be acknowledged. , in theory,mericans can continue traveling and bring stuff on planes like they do, if we see u. S. Airlines cutting back on flights, less u. S. Visitors impacting the Small Business sector, that generally might slow some of that transnational motion in so far as it is connected to the tourist sector. Ist important consequence would argue that the cubanamerican community is going to feel is a reflection of a reduction in staff, both at he at both embassies, in avana and in washington. In the waning days of the Obama Administration, it was a tough pill to swallow. But everybody saw it coming. It was kind of a selffulfilling prophecy. As soon as a process of normalization began, a pretty forormal immigration policy the cubans was perhaps destined to fit away. To fade away. Cubans began to leave the island in record numbers, the highest number in 30 years. The attitude was, if you are going to go, you have got to go now. That may have accelerated this. It was a bitter pill to swallow, and i think cubans had a tough time, but they understood perhaps where it was coming from. What has happened now with the reduction at the embassy and that there is no conflict, that closes another avenue of outmigration and just travel, the number of visitor visas. This has left a lot of people in limbo. I forget the exact stat, but i think i read that the u. S. Consulate in havana had one of the largest numbers for pending these applications period, maybe Something Like 100,000. Now it is totally unclear what is going to happen there. Saidtate department has the issuing of immigrant visas is going to be moved to bogota, colombia, not a very practical solution. For many reasons, including cost, for the reason that cubans need a reason to get to colombia, and to do that, they have to prove they have a certain amount in the bank. When you apply for a visa and go for an interview, you do not necessarily get a decision right away. This is a real sad fact. Even for the immigrant visa part, i think this will lead to sharp declines of the amount of cubans coming to the United States. Whathas implications for is still important Bilateral Agreement for the u. S. And cuban government dating back to the 1990s, where the u. S. Is supposed to issue a minimum of 20,000 travel documents for legal travel. Outve a hard time figuring how we will me that mark. They have not make clear whether there will be in process for issuing visitor visas, and that also slows down this kind of transnational flow. So this does have serious impacts. This is an area of political vulnerability for representatives from miami who are defining the policy change but whose constituents are really suffering these practical effects. In miami, it is completely possible to be a member of any political party, to have voted for the current president or not, and still believe that you want to bring your sister over to come live with you. To the extent that this drags on, this is going to be a real problem and i think something that constituents will tell their representatives about, i hope. Let me conclude with kind of a question and a tentative set of answers. I have argued that cubanamerican opinion on matters of u. S. Policy has consistently shifted. Yet, we still have a scenario in which the cubanamerican communitys elected representatives reflect a different point of view. Why is that . The first thing i would say is that there is a difference between the cubanamerican community in general, right, everybody, regardless of your citizenship status, than those who are u. S. Citizens and have a right to vote. I have often thought that as much effort and resources are for engagementt here in washington, i would like to see folks do a Voter Registration tried in certain areas. As i said already, cubans are not single issue voters. It is possible to have voted for trump and not support his cuban policy. I would say this electoral picture may he changing. 2018 will be really interesting in miami. Many of you know that a long time congressional representative is retiring, and that race is quickly shaping up to be a rather dynamic one. It could flip, and the field is already crowded. That couldt flips, have pretty significant changes for u. S. Cuba policy. Would agree the rollback we have seen under the Trump Administration is significant and will have real is also nothing close to a complete cancellation of the deal. For those of us who believe in the value of engagement, i think there is still space to work and continue to advocate for that agenda. Thank you. Michael thank you so much, mike. Jorge . Jorge i am delighted to be back at the dialogue once again to chat about a topic that is. Amiliar in many ways conversations of this sort have been going on for a very long time. Idea of theilys timeline was particularly helpful in that sense. The way i would like to use my not my usualaps think it is helpful how can the president s policies advance the president s goals . My own views will, i hope, be clear to you along the way. Is instantly that is a good way to frame it, because this is the president of the United States and we are thinking about the president s goals and policies. Began with the things he has said. He has said, including over the last few days, that he cares about the value of utility, the importance and the right of the u. S. Base near the cuban city of guantanamo. Whether the role of the base as a prison will or will not expand is a little unclear to me, but it would almost only continue as a prison for some indefinite amount of time. Continuingrpose, through the past few president s, there has been an effective collaboration between the u. S. And cuban armed forces. The reason for that is both sides have a similar interest. The u. S. Does not want the prisoners to get out. The cubans do not want the prisoners to get in. So to advance the president s goals with regard to guantanamo, it makes sense to sustain the policies that the president inherited. Take a different topic, one of the signature questions during the trial pr