Foreign Affairs Analyst on the u. S. Relationship with cuba and moves i the prop administration to the caribbean nation. This was hosted by the interamerican dialogue in washington, d. C. It is an hour and a half. Michael c. good morning. Welcome to the interamerican dialogue. My name is michael camilleri. Almost three years ago, president obama and castro embarked on a historic opening in terms of the relations between the u. S. And cuba. Two days ago, the Trump Administration and announced a series of regulatory changes designed to roll back the Obama Administration strategy of engaging with the people of cuba. A few months from now, cuba will undergo a historic leadership transition while reckoning with a moribund economy and a relationship with the u. S. That is rapidly deteriorating as a result of President Trumps policy changes and still unresolved attacks against u. S. Diplomats. Drawdown inic havana had a direct impact on this event as the suspension of Visa Services in havana prevented us from bringing a speaker from cuba to participate in in todays discussion. Nevertheless, to help us make sense of what has happened and to assess what the future might bring, we are privileged to welcome to the dialogue three distinguished friends and colleagues with decades of experience working on cuba. Left, emilyate mendrala is the executive director of the center for democracy in the americas. She served in the Obama Administration at the National Security council and at the Cuban Affairs office in the state department. Previously, she was a professional staffer. Michael bustamante is an assistant professor of let American History at Florida International university specializing in modern cuba, cuba americans and the caribbean. He is a coeditor of a new volume. Is aorge dominguez professor for the study of mexico at Harvard University and chair of the studies. He is the author or editor of various books. And he is a member of the interamerican dialogue. Before diving into the conversation, i would like to acknowledge our partners at the World Press Photo exhibition. For more than 60 years, more than 4 Million People around the globe have enjoyed the work of awardwinning photographers. Enjoy fortunate today to a new series. Visuallycative and stunning of everyday life in cuba. You will see the cycling through , throughout the discussion today. We also want to acknowledge the support of the ford administration. Would not be possible without that support. I also want to acknowledge peter hickam and another one of my colleagues who provides invaluable support to the rule of law program. Finally, if anyone from ofac is here, rest assure the coffee and donuts were not provided by afl. With that, we will dive into the discussion. Each of the panelists will talk for about 10 minutes. And then we will open it up for discussion and we have plenty of time for your questions and comments. Emily, we will start with you. Emily thank you. Cubau were to put u. S. Relations on a line graph, if you were to plot it with engagement on the y access, it would be a jagged line for sure. We have taken two steps forward, and one step forward over several decades. Is, the longterm trendline decidedly in the upward direction. Year, october, 2016, the Obama Administration released six of six rounds of regulatory regulations governing u. S. Cuba sanctions. Each round was designed to increase the flow of people, goods, and information to and from cuba. These were couched in a larger policy of engagement. Over two years, during the final two years of the Obama Administration. The american and cuban government met regularly and engaged in dialogue and a number of occasions and signed almost two dozen Bilateral Agreements. They touched on issues such as Law Enforcement information sharing, cooperation on health, designating sister marine protected areas. These wideranging discussions on a number of issues. I would say this time last year, we were on a pretty steep part of the line graph in the upward direction. Anything, the two years of rapid progress toward normalization proved that the u. S. And cuban governments can cooperate and the cooperation can bear fruit. I think that is really important. After decades of not cooperating , it was not a sure thing that this cooperation could bear fruit. In fact, if you look at the last three years, we have seen that in fact it did. This week, everyone is aware and michael just mentioned that we have had a downward tick on the line graph with the release of cubangulations governing sanctions. The Treasury Department and Commerce Department govern the implementation of sanctions towards cuba. They released some new rules that will in part rollback and cubart change travel to and the Financial Transactions with which u. S. Entities can participate in cuba. At the state department, in concert with this, it released a list of prohibited entities with him u. S. Persons cannot engage in direct Financial Transactions. This announcement was the fulfillment of a june announcement that President Trump made in miami where he directed departments and agencies to begin to draft these rules. We have been expecting them for some time. In fact, i would argue that the downward tick we have seen this week is not very severe. I will get into wide. But, i will get into why. But, the specific changes announced this week with regard to travel, individuals were previously able to travel under categorye to people and now, they are no longer able to do so. Travel ascan individuals under support for the cuban people category. There is a new definition for the support of the cuban people category which allows for people to stay at private bed and breakfasts, eat at restaurants, and there is a requirement that individuals do a Little Something else to constitute a fulltime itinerary under this category. Individuals can still travel to cuba. That is the big take away. Most notably, the state departments list of prohibited entities included a number of hotels where people cannot stay, shops in old havana where people cannot shout, a number of Government Entities with whom u. S. Entities cannot do business. It has already happened lawyers will be pouring over the new rules to determine the avenues of continued engagement. It is important to note that engagement can continue. The progress from the last three years has been preserved. We still have an embassy in cuba. Cuba still has an embassy here. Americans can still travel to cuba and enjoy a lot of the was implemented during the Obama Administration. General licenses, for example. Travelers doow, not need to seek specific permission from the Treasury Department to travel. They can self certify that their travel needs the rules governing sanctions. That remains in place. Dialogue will continue. The u. S. And cuban governments have indicated they will continue to dialogue on areas of mutual interest. By any means aot full reversal of the gains towards engagement we have seen in recent years. All of this comes at a time where there is considerable momentum. U. S. Travelers continue to travel to cuba. Year, we already reached the mark of the number of u. S. Travelers to cuba for the entire calendar year of 2016. This comes at a time where there is congressional, bipartisan congressional momentum. Representative Rick Crawford has introduced a bill to allow for the financing for the use of financing on agricultural sales. And thee 44 republicans house on that bill. And in the senate, a lift a bill to lift the travel ban has a majority. I think that it is important to realize that there is a path, a steady path of momentum from travelers, congress, and the private sector. And caterpillar just last week signed some pretty big deals at the trade fair in havana. It demonstrates that there is that there may be some negative news and rhetoric coming out of the u. S. Government, but it cannot quite put back in the bottle what was unleashed in the last two and half years. But, there are challenges. And i think we will hear more about those in a little bit from other panelists. There is aample, leadership transition in cuba coming up in february. We do not yet know what that will bring. Also, we are operating currently at skeleton staff. Havana and thein embassy in washington. This comes as a result of mysterious symptoms experienced a u. S. And canadian diplomats. There is an Ongoing Investigation into those symptoms. Down ourhas drawn diplomats from havana and it is important to understand it issued a travel warning alongside it but, it in many respects is triggered bureaucratically by the drawing down of our diplomats. The next step though that the u. S. Took to expel cuban diplomats from washington, or to request that 60 of the cuban diplomats from washington leave, seems to be a bit of a step too far or at least a step that begs the question why in the midst of an Ongoing Investigation did the u. S. Government ask the Cuban Embassy to draw down its diplomats and to do so in a way where they reportedly handed a list of 15 specific names to the Cuban Embassy. Names that gutted the commercial and consular sections of the Cuban Embassy in washington. And the investigation into the arguably serious symptoms experienced by our diplomats is ongoing and we do not know what it will turn out. I say that to note that what we have taken while we have taken a step back or are on a downward path of the line graph right now, it is not quite as bad as it could be. There are some challenges on the horizon. Michael c. that is terrific. Thank you. Michael b. good morning. Thank you to the dialogue for having me and organizing this event. I was asked to focus my opening remarks on the cubanamerican community. Say, fit we, i should into the present picture of u. S. Cuban relations. How we are eating affected by the developments just mentioned. It is no secret that there are vocal voices in the community. It begs the question is there a constituency there that supports these efforts or are there other voices . Let me just start with some context. Or the past for the past 20 years, the university where i work has conducted a rigorous poll every year on cubanamerican Political Attitudes and opinions. What the poll shows is there is a steady trend line of shifting cuban the aspera opinion on matters of cubanamerican policy. There is Strong Majority support in the cubanamerican community for the right of all americans to travel to the island. There is majority support for ending the embargo. But, there is particularly strong support, almost universal i would say, for the right of cubanamericans to travel to the island to see family whenever they wish. It is not surprising, that of all the changes that have been implemented in u. S. Cuban relations and policy, since june, this is one that has not been touched. And i dont think that is a mistake or a coincidence. Before the Obama Administration, one of the other restrictions in on theas a severe limit ability of cubanamericans to visit the island and see their families. The Obama Administration got rid of that early on. I think those against engagement in miami have recognized that it is a political loser for them to start telling their constituents when they can go see mom. And so, there is a key way in which the cubanamerican community is not affected eye some of the recent changes. There were ability to travel to the island in theory it remains free and unfettered. I think that contributes to a dynamic sometimes in which many are by noiami, who means single issue voters, the broader noise in cubanamerican relations may not register as much in so far as their own ability to go backandforth. But, there are other clear ways in which the community is affected by recent developments. Extent that there are less u. S. Visitors overall, a kind of bridge transnational economy, a flow of people, goods and money may also be impacted. Cubanamericans that travel to the island do not only go to hug mom, they go to bring cash. On the order of several billion dollars a year. Remittances to help support their relatives on the island. There is also a supply chain by suitcase for many sectors of the cuban economy and the black market. I think, well cuban americans can continue to travel in theory and bring all of the things that they do on airplanes that they do, if we see u. S. Airlines cutting back on flights, fewer u. S. Visitors having an impact on the Small Business sector, that might slow some of that transnational motion insofar as it is connected to the tourist sector. Consequenceortant that i would argue that the cubanamerican community is going to feel is a reflection of the reduction of staff both at the u. S. Embassy in havana and the Cuban Embassy here in washington. The end of the wet foot and dry foot policy in the waning days of the Obama Administration was a tough pill to swallow for the cuban the aspera in general although everyone saw it coming. It was a selffulfilling prophecy. As soon as a process of normalization began, a nonnormal immigration policy was perhaps destined to eventually fade away. And so, cubans began to leave the island in record numbers. The highest numbers we have seen in 30 years. The attitude was if youre going to go, you have to go now and that accelerated the speed with which the wet foot and dry foot policy came to an end. Cubans had a hard time swallowing that pill though they understood where it was coming from. What has happened now with the production of the staff at the u. S. Embassy, it closes yet another avenue of migration. And travel. Cubansber of visitors were getting was not unsubstantial. This has left a lot of people in limbo. I am forgetting the exact statistic but i think i read that the u. S. Consulate in havana had one of the largest numbers of pending leases. Maybe Something Like 100,000. And now, it is unclear what will happen there. The state department has said the issuing of immigrant visas will be moved to bogota, colombia which is not a very practical solution for reasons of cost and for reasons that cubans need a visa to get to colombia. And the fact that when you apply for a visa and go for the interview, you do not get a decision right away. Do . Is a cuban supposed to sharp declinesto in the number of cubans coming to the u. S. This has implications for what is still an important electoral agreement. Dating back to the 1990s. The u. S. Is supposed to issue a minimum of 20,000 travel documents. I have a hard time trying to figure out how they will meet that mark. Also still not made clear if there is going to be any process for issuing visitor visas. That also slows down the transnational flow. This does have serious impacts. Political area of vulnerability for representatives from my yummy who are defending this policy change. Are defendingwho this policy change. In miami, it is completely possible to be a member of any political party, to have voted for the current president or not , and still believe that you want to bring your sister over to live with you. To the extent that this drags on , this will be a real problem and something that constituents i hope will tell their representatives about. With ajust conclude question and a tentative answer or set of answers. I have argued that cubanamerican opinion on matters of u. S. Policy has shifted. And yet, we still have a scenario in which the cubanamerican communitys elected representatives cobra select a different so reflect a different point of view. There is a difference between the cubanamerican community in general, everybody, regardless of your citizenship status and those who are u. S. Citizens and have the right to vote. I have often thought that as much effort and resources put into courting support for engagement in washington, i would like the folks do a registration drive. I think it would help the cause. As i said already, cubans are not single issue voters. It is possible to support from and not support his policy on cuba. This electoral picture may be changing. 2018 will be interesting in miami. The longtime representative, ileana roslehtinen, is retiring. That race is shifting to become a dynamic one. Democrats think they can flip this and the field is already crowded. Hard to predict where that will end up. If that seat flips, that could have significant consequences. , last thought, that the rollback we have seen under the Trump Administration is significant and it will have real affects but it is also nothing close to a complete , quoteation of the deal unquote. For those of us that believe in the value of engagement, there is still space to work and push and advocate for that agenda. Michael c. thank you. Jorge, please. Jorge i am delighted to be back at the interamerican dialogue once again. To chat about a topic that is familiar in many ways. The conversations of this sort have been going on for a very long time. Idea wasught emilys particularly helpful in that sense. To presentould like not my usual mode, but i think it is helpful. Policieshe president s advance his goals . Will, i hope, be clear to you along the way that it seems to me that is a good way to frame it. Of the the president United States, and we are thinking of his goals and his policies. With the things he has said. He has said, including in the last few days, that he cares about the value, the utility and the importance and the right o