Foreign Affairs Analysts on the relationship with cuba, and moves on the Trump Administration to limit travels to the caribbean nation. This is an hour and a half. Welcome to american dialogue. Almost three years ago, president obama and castro embarked on a historic opening in relations between the United States and cuba. Two days ago, the Trump Administration announced regulatory changes designed to partially roll back the Obama Administrations strategy of maximizing engagement with the people of cuba. A few months from now, cuba will undergo a historic leadership transition while reckoning with demographicconomy, challenges, and a relationship with the u. S. That is rapidly deteriorating as a result of trumps policy changes and still unresolved attacks against u. S. Diplomats. The diplomatic drawdown and have in havana had a direct impact on this event as the suspension of Visa Services prevented us from bringing a speaker from cuba to participate in todays discussion. Nonetheless, to help us make sense of all that has happened in recent months and assess what the future might bring for people in the u. S. And for u. S. Cuba relations, we are privileged to welcome three distinguished friends and colleagues with decades of experience working on cuba. To my left is the executive director of the center for democracy in the americas. Emily served at the National Security council and at the Cuban Affairs department at the state department and was previously a staff member on the Senate Foreign relations committee. Mike is an assistant professor of latin American History at Florida International university, specializing in modern cuba, cuban americans, and the caribbean. He is coeditor of the volume, new histories of the cuban revolution. Jorge is from Harvard University and chair of the Harvard Academy for international and area studies, editor of various books and former president of the latin american studies association, and not least a member of the interamerican dialogue. I would like to acknowledge our partners at the World Press Photo exhibition. For over 60 years, more than 4 Million People in 100 cities around the globe have enjoyed the work of awardwinning photographers. We are fortunate to enjoy a series today, which is evocative and stunning, pictures of everyday life in cuba. You will see these cycling throughout the discussion today. We want to acknowledge the support of the ford foundation, without whom this event would not have been possible. I would like to acknowledge two of my colleagues that are here to provide invaluable support to the rule of law program. Rest assured, the coffee and donuts were not provided by with that, we will dive into the discussion. Each panelist will speak for about 10 minutes for opening remarks, and then we will open it up for discussion. We have time for comments after that. Emily . Lets start with you. Emily thanks. If you were to put u. S. Cuba relations on a line graph and plot it with engagement on the y axis, it would be a jagged line, for sure. We have taken two steps forward, one step back. But the longterm trend line is decidedly in the upper direction. Upward direction. This time last year, so october 2016, the Obama Administration released the sixth of six rounds of regulatory judges governing u. S. Cuba sanctions. Each round of regulatory changes was designed to increase the flow of people, goods, and information to and from cuba. These were couched in a larger policy of engagement over the final two years of the Obama Administration. The u. S. And cuban governments met regularly and engaged in dialogue on a number of issues and signed almost two dozen Bilateral Agreements, which touched on issues such as Law Enforcement information sharing, cooperation on health, designating sister marine protected areas. Really wideranging discussions on a number of issues. This time last year, we were on a pretty steep part of the line graph in the upper direction. More than anything, those two years of rapid progress toward normalization proved that the u. S. And cuban governments can cooperate and that the cooperation can bear fruit. That is really important, because after decades of not cooperating, it was not a sure thing that this cooperation could bear fruit. If you look at the less three years, we have seen that, in fact, it did. This week, everyone is aware, and michael just mentioned it, we have had a downward take on the line graph with the release of new regulations governing cuba sanctions. The Treasury Department and Commerce Department governed the implementation of the sanctions toward cuba, and they released some new rules that will change and rollback travel, u. S. Travel to cuba, and the financial track Financial Transactions with which u. S. Entities can participate in cuba. The state department, and concert with this, released a list of 180 prohibited entities with whom u. S. Persons cannot engage in direct Financial Transactions. This announcement was the fulfillment of a june announcement that President Trump made in miami where he directed apartments and agencies to begin to draft these rules, so we have been expecting them for some time. I would argue that the downward tick that we have seen this week is not very severe. I will get into why. But the specific changes that were announced this week with regard to travel, individuals were previously able to travel under the peopletopeople category and are no longer able to do so. They are allowed to travel as individuals under the support for cuban people category. There is a new definition for that category that allows for people to stay at private bed and breakfasts, eat at private restaurants, and there is a requirement that individuals do Something Else to constitute a fulltime itinerary. But individuals can still travel to cuba. That is the big take away. There is also, most notably, the state departments list of 180 prohibited entities, a number of hotels where individuals cannot stay, a number of stores in old havana where individuals cannot shop, a number of Government Entities with whom u. S. Businesses cannot do business. In the coming days and weeks, and i know it has already happened in many respects, lawyers will be pouring over these new rules to determine what the avenues are for continuing engagement. It is important to note that engagement can continue. A lot of the progress of the last three years has been preserved. We still have a u. S. Embassy in havana and cubans have an embassy here in washington. U. S. Travelers can still travel to cuba and enjoy a lot of the flexibility that was implemented during the Obama Administration, general licenses, for example. Now travelers do not need to seek specific permission from the Treasury Department to travel. They can self certify that their travel meets the rules governing u. S. Sanctions. That remains in play. Dialogue will continue. The u. S. And cuban governments have made clear they will continue to dialogue on areas of mutual interest. So it is not, by any means, even close to a full reversal of the sort of engagement we have seen over recent years. All this comes at a time where there is considerable momentum. U. S. Travelers are continuing to travel to cuba. In may of this year, we already reached the mark of the number of u. S. Travelers to cuba for the entire calendar year of 2016. This comes at a time where there is congressional momentum, bipartisan congressional momentum. Representative Rick Crawford has introduced a bill to allow for the financing, for the use of financing and agricultural sales, and there are now 44 republicans in the house on the bill. In the senate, a bill to lift the travel ban has 55 total senators signed on to the bill. That is a majority. So i think it is important to realize that there is a steady path of momentum from travelers, congress, and also the private sector. Last week, we saw john deere and caterpillar sign some pretty big deals in havana. It demonstrates that there may be some negative news and negative rhetoric coming out of the u. S. Government, but it cannot quite put back in the bottle what was released over the last two and a half years. But there are challenges. I think we will hear more about those from other panelists. But, for example, there is a leadership transition in cuba coming up in february. We do not know what that will bring. Also, were operating currently as a skeleton staff and the Cuban Embassy in washington and in havana. This is the result of serious symptoms experienced by u. S. Diplomats and canadian diplomats, and an Ongoing Investigation is going on. The u. S. Has drawn down our diplomats from havana, and it is important to understand, issued a travel warning alongside it, but the travel warning is figured bureaucratically by the drawing down of our diplomats. The next step that the u. S. Took to expel cuban diplomats from washington or to request that 60 of the cuban diplomats from washington leave seems to be a step too far or a step that begs the question why in the midst of an Ongoing Investigation did the u. S. Government ask the u. S. To draw down there diplomats and do so in a way where they reportedly handed a list of 15 specific names to the embassy, names that gutted the commercial section of the Cuban Embassy in washington . And the investigation into the serious symptoms experienced by our diplomats is ongoing, and we do not know what that will turn up. I say that to note that while we have taken a step back or are on the downward path of the line graph right now, it is not quite as bad as it could be. But there are some challenges on the horizon. Michael thank you, emily. Mike, lets go to you. Mike good morning. Thank you for having me. I was asked to focus my opening remarks to the American Community on how we fit into the present picture of u. S. Cuban relations, how we are responding to our being affected by what was just mentioned. It is no secret that there are vocal voices in the cubanAmerican Community that are behind the recent change in the policy announced yesterday. It begs the question is there a constituency there that supports these efforts or are there other voices . Let me start with context. For the past approaching 20 years, if i am not mistaken, Florida National university has conducted a rigorous poll every year on cubanamerican Political Attitudes and opinions. What it shows is that there is a steady trend line of shifting cuban diaspora opinion on u. S. Cuban policy. There is strong support for the right of all americans to travel to the island. There is majority support for ending the embargo. But there is particularly strong support, almost universal, for the right of cuban americans to travel to the island to see family whenever they wish. So it is not surprising that of all of the changes that have been implemented in u. S. Cuban relations and policy since june, this is one that has not been touched. I do not think that is a mistake or coincidence. Before the Obama Administration, one of the other restrictions in place was a quite severe limit on the ability of cuban americans to visit or see their families. The Obama Administration got rid of that early on. I think those against engagement in miami have recognized that it is the political loser for the to start telling the constituents when they can go see their mom. There is a key way that the Cuban Community is not affected. Their ability to travel to the island remains free and unfettered. I think that contributes to a dynamic sometimes in which many folks in miami who are not single issue voters, the broader noise might not register as much as far as their own ability to go back and forth. There are other clear ways that the community is affected by recent developments. To the extent that there are less u. S. Visitors overall, the kind of rich economy, that may be impacted. Cubanamericans that travel to the island do not only go to hug mom, they go to bring cash, on the order of several billion dollars a year. Folks support loved ones on the island, but it feels a rich transnational economy, a supply chain by suitcase, if you will, for many sectors of the economy. Also, the black market has to be acknowledged. While cubanamericans, in theory, can continue traveling and bring stuff on planes like they do, if we see u. S. Airlines cutting back on flights, less u. S. Visitors impacting the Small Business sector, that generally might slow some of that transnational motion in so far as it is connected to the tourist sector. Most important consequence i would argue that the cubanAmerican Community is going to feel is a reflection of a reduction in staff, at both embassies, in havana and in washington. The end of the wet foot dry foot policy in the waning days of the Obama Administration, it was a tough pill to swallow. But everybody saw it coming. It was kind of a selffulfilling prophecy. As soon as a process of normalization began, a pretty nonnormal immigration policy for the cubans was perhaps destined to fade away. Cubans began to leave the island in record numbers, the highest number in 30 years. The attitude was, if you are going to go, you have got to go now. That may have accelerated this. It was a bitter pill to swallow, and i think cubans had a tough time, but they understood perhaps where it was coming from. What has happened now with the reduction at the embassy and the fact there is no functioning embassy, that closes another avenue of outmigration and just travel, the number of visitor visas. This has left a lot of people in limbo. I forget the exact stat, but i think i read that the u. S. Consulate in havana had one of the largest numbers for pending visa applications period, maybe Something Like 100,000. Now it is totally unclear what is going to happen there. The state department has said the issuing of immigrant visas is going to be moved to bogota, colombia, not a very practical solution. For many reasons, including cost, for the reason that cubans need a visa to get to colombia, and to do that, they have to prove they have a certain amount in the bank. When you apply for a visa and go for an interview, you do not necessarily get a decision right away. You might have to wait. What is a cuban supposed to do . This is a real sad fact. Even for the immigrant visa part, i think this will lead to sharp declines of the amount of cubans coming to the United States. This has implications for what is still important Bilateral Agreement for the u. S. And cuban government dating back to the 1990s, where the u. S. Is supposed to issue a minimum of 20,000 travel documents for legal travel. I have a hard time figuring out how we will make that mark. They have not make clear whether there will be in process for issuing visitor visas, and that also slows down this kind of transnational flow. So this does have serious impacts. This is an area of political vulnerability for representatives from miami who are defending this policy change but whose constituents are really suffering these practical effects. In miami, it is completely possible to be a member of any political party, to have voted for the current president or not, and still believe that you want to bring your sister over to come live with you. To the extent that this drags on, this is going to be a real problem and i think something that constituents will tell their representatives about, i hope. Let me conclude with kind of a question and a tentative set of answers. I have argued that cubanamerican opinion on matters of u. S. Policy has consistently shifted. Yet, we still have a scenario in which the cubanAmerican Communitys elected representatives reflect a different point of view. Why is that . The first thing i would say is that there is a difference between the cubanAmerican Community in general, right, everybody, regardless of your citizenship status, than those who are u. S. Citizens and have a right to vote. I have often thought that as much effort and resources are put into support for engagement here in washington, i would like to see folks do a Voter Registration tried in certain registration drive. I think that would help the cost. As i said already, cubans are not single issue voters. It is possible to have voted for trump and not support his cuban policy. I would say this electoral picture may he changing. May be changing. 2018 will be really interesting in miami. Many of you know that a long time congressional representative is retiring, and that race is quickly shaping up to be a rather dynamic one. This is one the democrats think they can flip, and the field is already crowded. If that seat flips, that could have pretty significant changes for u. S. Cuba policy. Last thought, i would agree the rollback we have seen under the Trump Administration is significant and will have real effects, but it is also nothing close to a complete cancellation of the deal. For those of us who believe in t