Middle east analysts discuss what this means for the saudi government at an event in washington, d. C. This is an hour and a half. Mr. Jahshan evening, i good would like to welcome all of you to this special briefing focusing on the shakeup in the riyadh regional and International Implications. Over the past 13 days since the november,ifth of some serious and very significant changes and steps have been taken in the kingdom of saudi arabia that attracted andattention of media political analysts all over the world, as a matter of fact. Know, there have been hundreds and hundreds, if not thousands, of articles and interviews conducted, written about the significance of these immediate,erms of midterm, longterm implications, domestic implications, regional implications, International Implications, for the kingdom and for those like the United States countries that have interests and special relationship with the kingdom. Although it has been a couple of weeks of hyperactivity at that , frankly, more questions have been raised then answered during this period. Redo the titles of all of these questions, because that will keep us here until next friday, but i will raise a couple of these questions for the purpose and sake of the discussion today. If you will, the conversation today. Some of the questions raised starting early november when these steps were adopted or taken included the following. What is the real meaning of the saudi round up we witnessed on the fourth and the fifth of november . A Anticorruption Campaign or a consolidation of Power Campaign . Salman behaving recklessly, or is he leading a genuine revolution from above in the kingdom of saudi arabia . What are the domestic implications of this crackdown that we have witnessed over the past 12 and 13 days . What is the specific impact on the governance process in saudi arabia, the role of the royal family, and the role of the religious establishment . Are they marginalized with the arrests we have witnessed even prior to the arrests of the princes and businessmen, there was also a large number of thatious establishments have also been detained. When we look back at this period, is power trumping legitimacy in saudi arabia . How is legitimacy going to be affected by these steps . Is this the beginning of the fourth saudi state . Is the kingdom of saudi arabia transforming its caliphatervative thought, to modern caliphate is an calip is hism . Thatis the saudi arabia the youth won . What is domestic reaction now and in the future to this campaign . And definitely, we need to touch on what are the regional and International Implications of this saudi purge . To help us answer these questions, we invited two dear informedho are well about these developments. Those of you who have been following up the reaction, whether on twitter or otherwise, have seen their very significant, substantial of and vese comments substantia and wise comments. Them atntroduce both of this time in the order they will speak, and we will give them the floor to proceed. Be jamal speaker would khashoggi. He is a saudi arabia and journalist, editor, author. He doesnt need an introduction if you have been following the middle east or arabic language media. Forerved as correspondent english and arabic publications, including the saudi gazette, and others. Deputy editor of arab news, and on and on. A key figure in the media and middle east. Not just in saudi arabia. His career in and our friendship goes back more than 25 years he served as core Foreign Correspondent in Different Countries in the region, including algeria, sudan, kuwait and the and reported on all these developments during that period in the region and became a expert, particularly in islam is an in the region. Islamism. , particularly when the prince was the ambassador during that period. He has always been also a allentator on the media in of these languages and Many Networks aside from the saudi workedt he directed and at, that includes channels like bbc, nbc, dubai tv and many others. Our next speaker, also a good isend, Kristian Ulrichsen the middle east fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University and we are also delighted that he chose to make the trip from houston last night to be with us today. Kristian is working at the Baker Institute across disciplines of political science, international relations, International Political economy. If you are not familiar, look him up establishes the changing positions of gulf states and the global order, which is certainly relevant to the developments we are examining today. He also has focused on the emergence of longerterm nonmilitary challenges and Regional Security in the gulf region. That as abefore senior gulf analyst at the gulf center for strategic studies between 2006 and 2008, and codirector of the Kuwait Program on development, governance and globalization in the gulf states at the London School of economics between 2008 and 2013. He holds a doctorate in history from the university of cambridge. 12h speaker will speak for to 15 minutes and then we will spend the balance of our time engaging in the art of conversation, giving you a chance to engage directly with the speakers through your questions. I would just like to remind you that the cards and little pencils on your seat are not to improve your sitting, they are meant for you to basically write your questions. We only entertain questions in writing. Once you have a question or comment, raise your card. The staff will pick it up for you and we will be more than glad to read and direct your questions to the right speaker or to both. Lease write legibly if you would like for me to read exactly what you have written, make it short so we can accommodate as many questions as possible. Coffeefront desk, we had copies. I dont know if we have enough, but we had our most recent report. Ofs was based on the agenda our Second Annual conference we just held a few weeks ago. It is about trump and the arab world and is relevant. It is written by our staff, and were analyst and it is written for you at the front desk on your way back. If we are out of copies, feel free to give us a call at the center and we will be more than glad to send you a copy. At this time, i would like to invite jamal to the podium, please. Mr. Khashoggi thank you. Thank you all. ,n my career as a journalist and editor, i called for everything Mohammed Salamon is doing right now. Not only me, every writer, commentator, we want to be free from radicalism, women to be allowed to have the right to drive and a perch on corruption. , we see it every day. We simply cannot report about it. So he is doing what we demanded of him to do, so why am i being critical . Simply because he is doing the right thing the wrong way. Very wrong way. And for example, on corruption. I think the saudi people are very much supportive of the purge of conception. There is a euphoria that people dont think, dont question, s suchont discuss decisions. This euphoria and also government control. There are people who are called pledges and to sign not report on the government. Arrested, other writers do not speak. The environment in saudi arabia does not allow for criticism or constructive debate or discourse for thelively matter future. The other thing, it is also the euphoria. The government is feeding into the people High Expectations and i would say most young people dont want to listen to someone who would disappoint them with bad news. Here in washington, we can discuss the bad news and probably, it will find its way the years of the saudis. Rge. Example, corruption pu we should own it. What is the true motive of solomon salman . Purged to own the incorruption. It is our way to move into the future. This would never succeed without a fight on corruption. I will not spend a lot of time speculating why is he after corruption . Support his fight on corruption and i think every other saudi should support him in that. At the same time, i would like to see a debate about that. Goingght on corruption is to have a major effect on saudi arabia. It is going to have an immediate affect on the economy. The private is panicking right sector isdi arabia panicking right now in saudi arabia. People are wondering if they are going to be paid at the end of the month in a lot of corporations. We are talking about companies with 140,000 employees. That is a huge number. Maybe there is no one to find the checks at the end of the months. Maybe the government is going to sort that out, but i am sure the private sector in saudi arabia is panicking. In the longterm, it is good. Corruptionve against succeeds, it will free saudi arabia from the epidemic of corruption. It could lead to a proper economy, could lead to elevating of a new middle class in saudi i think he has to distinguish between the royal world and the corporation world. The royals are the ones who made it impossible for even Good Business to work and flourish in saudi arabia. Is net 5 . It is in billions. Is tion in saudi arabia that you pass to the congress wife. It is projects the cost a billion and the volume will increase to 3 billion, just so his Royal Highness will take a cut and his brother will take out of the cut. That, of course, will bleed the Saudi National budget. According to Mohammed Salman himself, in an interview with bloomberg in april 2016. 2010id in the years from year14, 100 billion every we are talking about 400 billion dollars in four years. We are talking about a trillion dollars in two decades. That your, you call taxpayer money. It is our money. Went into houses in los angeles and hotels in paris and under the name of Royal Highness. It is good he is after that. That money claim back and stop this habit. At the same time, what about corporations . Those are national corporations. They need to be preserved. There are many. I wish he would do Something Like what you do here in america at the irs when they expect in the stealing of corporations. They will go to the company, check their books, argue with them, fight with them and end up with a settlement where the company will pay a few billions or 20 , 60 , something clear. But not to destroy those companies. Destroying those companies will have a setback on saudi arabia. If the investors lose trust again, just a week ago or 10 years ago, he was a huge in riyadh where he was introducing saudi arabia to the foras an opportunity investors. Im sure foreigners are having second thoughts today. Trust is important. In theses in egypt 1960s and syria, it took generations to regain the trust to invest back in their country. By what important and he is doing, it is killing trust. There is no comment from saudi arabia from the saudi minister trade in the Financial Times. When the Financial Times ran in its story that the government is negotiating with business 10 of theirtake wealth for a settlement, and there is no comment from the saudi government about it, that is worrying. Consolidation . It is yet to be seen. We dont know yet. Go chinese style where he will clean the house and restart the business in a clean ground . Will he sit on it and be the and use theerything arabia great saudi again. Personally like that style. I would like the chinese style. If we could have a democratic style, that would be better. Has the bin salman choice and he is going to be the leader of saudi arabia. For may be another 50 years. He is young and considering the age factor and advancement of medicine, maybe he will make it more than 50 years. So the only we can do as Saudi Arabians is hope he will succeed. His successes will be our success not necessarily mean it, but for my kids and rent kids. Can he succeed . Can saudi arabia in 10 years how do i see it in 10 years . Saudi arabia will be how mohammad bin salman succeeded in during the epidemic of employment. The other serious thing is high expectation. He made the young people reach the sky and in five years time, he wants to see this futuristic city in the north, also in the north of my hometown, medina. He has to show them what he had promised. The most important thing he has to for phil is unemployment. We are talking about 4 Million People unemployment in saudi arabia, and 250,000 people every year in an economy that is controlled by foreign labor. Europetish exited because of 8. 9 foreigners in their workforce. 75 foreigners who control our workforce in saudi arabia. That is not an ordinary economy. Every economy needs to be restructured and i wish mohammad bin salman will work from the bottom and fix the economy before he builds new cities, but if he insists on his style of building from the top down, i willg new cities, forecast bankruptcy for saudi arabia. I hope not. I hope he will change course and go to the basic economy, economy 101 and start with jobs rather than building new cities. Already he has in the front of his eyes right now two failed cities that need to work. , onnancial city in riyadh the way to your hotel, you will see that beautiful city in the middle of riyadh. Not a Single Office was rented at that city and basically, the city of riyadh doesnt need it. Now he has to find a solution for it. The other city is King Abdullah city on the west coast. It is partially working, not fully working, and it needs to work. Building new cities is not the solution. Finding jobs for the saudi. Through jobs, this is the solution and i hope people spend more time with the. With that. I am out of time before discussing Foreign Policy, but that is a big problem by itself unfortunately, empowering the iranians. For every mistake we make, a rainy ands game. Win. Anians we the sunni are the majority. E are under threat by the shia most of the killing is happening in our territories and our land. Saudi arabia should be there to counter the iranian expansionism, but saudi arabia is up sestak its fight against radical islam while it is the mother and father of radical islam. Saudi arabia should adapt again its origin, traditions, go back to it without radicalism and iranian for to expansionism. Thank you very much. [applause] thank you. Now for our second speaker, ristian ulrichsen. Thank you very much for the introduction and for the invitation. I will not reiterate what Jamal Khashoggi has said but will add my own thoughts on some of the changes we have seen, which have been interpreted as has een said as varying degrees of power plays or of this sweeping away of the new of the old saudi state. Again, i think it is too early to tell. What i would just say would be saudi ould think the way we have known since 1963 that came into being has is slipping away. And we are seeing really the passing of the old guard. In part its because of Natural Causes over the past seven years. Some of the key figures in the ld guard have passed away. In 2011, the defense minister for 48 years died. In 2012 the interior minister for 37 years died. In 2015, the foreign minister for 40 years died. And of course the king also passed away in 2015 in addition position as crown prince he was also head of the National Guard again for a period of 48 years. So more by accident than by design the old guard had passed from the scene and a lot of the commentary over the past 10 the as also focused on apparent sweeping away of hecks and balances, again, considered traditionally to be a feature of saudi policy making. It is true that in the past one has had four or five competing factions within the royal family competing for influence and ensuring key decisions had to be taken with a key of consensus. In some cases this has meant policy making was slow but it did involve all wings of the family and of society. And again, there was nothing constitutionally mandated. There is no separation of powers in a formal sense that we would have in the u. S. Or other countries. This system of checks and balances to the extent that it was one arose again more by accident in the sense that you would have those powerful figures within the royal family remaining in position for decades and creating these net works of power that was impossible to ignore. Again, the kind of removal of the checks and balances has happened. It happened before king salman came to power. And of course it has been the king and Mohammed Bin Salmans inheritance that theyve been able to i suppose not necessarily take advantage but move into this new dynamic where a lot of the old constraints no longer exist. So a power grab . Not to the extent that has been described in the media. To the extent that there was a power grab it occurred between january, 2015, and june twembts and it really ended when june 2017 and it really ended when Mohammed Bin Salman became crown prince. We should all take note as people who observe saudi arabia that five years ago we were all engaged in guessing who might be the next generation of leadership and i think nobody would have even put Mohammed Bin Salman on the horizon at that time. So we have a lesson in humility there. But to the extent a power grab has occurred, its finished and we can obviously see that Mohammed Bin Salman is now engaged in remaking to a degree he intends to rule as jamal said another 50 years if things go well. Were seeing the departing of the old guard in an accelerated way. Those not passed away are now being eased out of positions. We are seeing Mohammed Bin Salman putting his own people often from his own generation in charge and tr