Many americans, for the first time, are starting to think a lot harder about north korea, the potential threat, and what it means for them. Everybody in washington is thinking about it. I am glad you are here and im glad to be part of this. I am joined by four panelists to bring a wide range of perspective on north korea. First is our host, frank, who is the u. S. Institute of pieces expert focusing on issues from 2001 until this year. He served as the Senior Adviser for north korea in the office of secretary of defense. Welcome. [applause] he is your host, after all. Jean lee is here. The First American granted access to north korea. She became the chief of the pyongyang bureau. [applause] she is a colleague in the press. Former reporter. Todd anthony is a senior fellow at the foundation. He is a former government expert on targeted financial measures, sanctions against hostile regimes. He is here to guide us through some of the questions of sanctions. It is good to have you, anthony. He deserves a hand. [applause] , who wasnow glenn ford to my right. He was a member of the european prominent for 25 years, focusing on asia related issues. He also coauthored a book about north korea. Good to have you, as well. [applause] before we start our discussion, lets start with the news. It is a good place to start. The latest Ballistic Missile launch from the North Koreans. North koreans claim this flew to an altitude 10 times the height of the International Space station. That might not mean much, but what you need to know is that went so high that it can go so far. Apparently now it could land on chicago or cleveland or even my hometown of hershey, pennsylvania. From nikki haley. I think we have audio. Another us we have never saw war with north korea and today we dont think it. If war does come, it will be because of continued acts of aggression likely witnessed yesterday, and if war comes, make no mistake, the north korean regime will be utterly destroyed. Todd rhetoric from nikki haley. Frank, let me start with you. This latest test, the latest in a long series of Ballistic Missile tests, does it change the state in a fundamentally . In a fundamental way . Of ais just a continuation new positioning from north korea, or do you see Something Different . Frank you are right, the test that north korea conducted earlier this week is the latest version of their ballistic ,issile, a very large missile advanced second stage capability and 10 the range was 8000 miles, which can cover the entire United States. I wouldnt call it a fundamental shift in technical capabilities. We knew this test was coming. They conducted similar tests. Shift,e is a fundamental it could be more in their political posture. Kim jongun has said before he wants to simultaneously develop Nuclear Weapons program as well test,nomy, and with this he stated north korea has finalized the Nuclear Weapons force. Inmay be looking for a shift north koreas regime towards more economic development, maybe see a pivot to an open engagement. Todd one bit of speculation i heard is dual tracks, developing weapons, developing economy, suggesting he is looking for back off, leave me alone, let me restructure my economy without interference from the americans or South Koreans. Do you buy that strategic take . Frank that is what he said since he implemented a dual track development of the Nuclear Weapon and economy. He has said that fence 2013 that since 2013. That policy will move forward now that he has secured his Nuclear Weapons. Ofd one of the features this show is input from people around the world and from listeners and viewers. I want to play a video clip. Ats is from a student Hancock Academy of Foreign Relations in south korea. This is probably in korean. I am going to translate after a minute. [speaking korean] todd i want to learn more about the ideologies that President Trump might have. We must understand each countrys policy. Todd who wants to talk about twitter . You to talk about twitter for a moment, because this is a new way of communicating on the world stage. Do you have a sense of how the north interprets twitter messages from the president , whether insulting or bombastic. Do they ignore them . They certainly talk about them. I was in pyongyang last week. Twitterk about trumps feed. Being british, i am more aware of his recent endeavors on twitter. That 1, 1 wonders. Having retweeted some of the most vital some of the most vile material from the extreme neonazi right in britain, which is a false video, it wouldnt encourage North Koreans much. His recent contributions on twitter were less than helpful that, kim jongun if you are insulting him, it makes it difficult to get to come to the table. They wouldnt put up with insults or threats of being wiped out. That, butstand isually going to the extent a step too far. Would happen in japan if you insulted the emperor. We know what happens in thailand, you get 20 years in jail. Todd who is reading twitter in north korea . Is it just a small handful of the elite . The people at the top it a of world news. On if they dont see twitter itself, it is being covered. Part of the problem is they have all the information but do not understand what it means necessarily. Localan talk about Election Results in france or whatever but are not necessarily capable of understanding what are the problems they have with the United States. Its a very different system from the room. They do not understand the people in the same administration are saying Different Things at different times. , it seems clear the Trump Administration has abandoned the doctrine of the Obama Administration before it, or have they . They have gone to great rhetorical links, but have you noticed a substantive shift in strategy or tactics, aside from the twitter feed, from this administration than from the one or two before it . Jean lets talk about the twitter feed. What if the differences we see is the rhetoric, and the rhetoric coming from the twitter not only confusing to the North Koreans but also to the South Koreans because it does not jive with the policy his secretary of state is putting out there when it comes to dealing with north korea. Part of the strategy was its kind of like when you have a naughty child. There is a theory that you should not give the child the attention that child is craving, right . Was to ignorelicy the provocations and not to feed it, but what we are getting with these really kind of crazy tweets from the president s feed is the rise in this war of words between the United States and north korea. I think what people in south korea worry about is both of these leaders raise the rhetoric to the point where they cannot back down, and that will lead the region into some sort of conflict, so it is very confusing for people and south korea. Not to mention those of us here in the u. S. And the North Koreans. I have to remind you we have an armistice and a ceasefire in place on the Korean Peninsula, so militarily, we are limited to a certain degree if we abide by that. North korea knows that and has pushed things to the limit. The president can threaten only once in his rhetoric, all he wants in his rhetoric, but there is a limit to a certain degree if you are going to follow the code of conduct in terms of what you can do in terms of military action. They can do it, but there is an armistice or a ceasefire that has been in place since 1953. Aboutwe are going to talk military options such as they are, later. Iero, another feature of the president s twitter feed is pushing the chinese, sometimes encouraging them, sometimes insulting them as well, trying to get them to ratchet up and clamp down on ally, north korea. How far has the Trump Administration gotten with their calls to the Chinese Government to get tough on north korea from there and . Their end . Anthony when you ask the question about comparing the Trump Administration policy to the Obama Administration policy, the relationship with china i think is the biggest difference. This is the First Administration that has really gone after china with sanctions for their facility of north koreas sanctions evasion. There are many times they have gone after one chinese bank. They have gone after many numerous chinese nationals. The interesting part is to your point about public talking about and trump have a close relationship, but its clear in private there is a tough message being delivered. Beijing,rumps trip to he was very public and his praise, and a few weeks later, he comes back, and there are strong sanctions against chinese entities. If i could come back to the second back to the question of does this missile test mean we are moving forward on diplomacy, or is this a sign . I have to caution first of all that we saw larger Missile Systems in the april parade. This is not the end of north koreas Missile Program, not the end of north koreas dangerous Missile Program. There are probably larger, more dangerous missiles they are working on now. It was only monday, the day before the test, when people were saying that this 70date cause in testing was an opportunity for negotiation, and that is not true. What we now know have learned what we now have learned is north korea was using that window to build a much bigger missile with which to reach the United States. We have to be careful to remember that North Koreans will denuclearization on their terms. Kim jongun has actually said they are at the end of their program. In a sense, if they retest in the near future, that is a loss of face for him. He has said it is complete. It seems to me we are in a much better position than we have been in the past. Obama to say barack described his policy as strategic patience. I term it malign neglect. It was not a benign operation by any means. I think the key thing to realize is that the Administration Must understand chinas influence. Frankly, on the economy, china has some ability to hurt north korea, but it does not want to collapse the state. The people who have got the big problem are in the south, but the point being that china has almost no political influence over north korea. The foreign minister wanted to come about six weeks ago, so this notion that some people still have that the north Korean Workers Party is some kind of the chinesef communist party is complete nonsense, and the sooner people in that, the better. At the moment, hes pushing on the lever with no fulcrum. Todd i want to stick with china for the next part of our discussion, but, jean, you wanted to add something. Jean i read the statement about the testing a little bit differently. They said theyd begun the final process of completing this Nuclear Weaponry, which i read to mean that they acknowledge they have a couple more tests they may need to conduct, so i think we cannot relax quite yet, and i think experts may agree that they have to reasked her they have to master reentry. Testsave a couple more before they have a weapon that can truly threaten us. That said, it is dangerous for other reasons, but we might keep in mind it might be some political posturing. Said he would complete this by the end of the are, so he had to show his people that he has this timeline and is going to complete it. Also, i had expected a test. I know everybody is saying what is up with this 75day low lull, but i had been expecting one in december because when i have been in north korea in december, this has been a time for testing for kim jongun because month of december is when his father passed away. What better way to honor your relatives . Yeah. Frank, you wanted to add. Frank china does not have as much political influence on north korea as people say, but they do have leverage, so it is basically a reiteration of anthonys point. Do want to stay with china because we have another contributor from china. Office worker in shanghai. She has this message for President Trump. Lets watch the clip, and im going to use my ability for translation yet again. He says, learn from our president xi. Things like when bell, one road, peaceful development. Being the only powerful country is not fun. Look at china and russia we are on great terms . Why do you have to do what you have been doing . Everyone should participate. You should not dominate the game yourself. I think most Chinese People share this view. Anthony, President Trump may agree. The u. S. Has been trying to deal china further into this process. Probably many officials in china want china is split on how far to go in pushing on the North Koreans. Isnt that right when you look at the chinese options for sanctions . Thehe chinese anthony chinese leadership faces a difficult decision. The North Koreans learned in 2005 when the United States sanctioned bank of macau that they should not have all their operations in one place. While they have the majority of their operations in one country, its diverse. The question for the chinese leadership is how long are they going to look the other way . I agree with what the other panelists have said, that china has very little political leverage, but with the amount of trade they have with north korea, its hard to claim, as the chinese continue to do, that they have really no leverage with north korea. The issue is going to come down states is going to have to use its own sanctions to get them to act. We do not have a lot of examples because, as i said, there have not been a lot of examples of the u. S. Sanctioning china, but in some cases where the u. S. Has acted first, the chinese have followed that with investigations and looking into the activities. We will have to see more of that. The chinese are ready to do that on their own nationals, but we have to get to that point. To take thisng opportunity to coin and trademark the phrase domino sanctions. That is what youre talking about. Anthony the issue is that the chinese are willing to, as i like to say, nibble around the edges a little bit and target North Koreans, and certainly there are North Koreans engaged in these activities. I do not want to suggest there are not, but there are far more Chinese Companies and nationals and banks engaged in this activity with north korea. The question we all have to ask ourselves is the United Nations the chinese are not going to allow the yuan sanctioned chinese persons, so it is really left to the United States the chinese are not going to allow the United Nations to sanction chinese persons. A majority of the sanctions that brought iran to the negotiating table were not United Nations sanctions. They were u. S. Sanctions implement it by the United States and a group of likeminded countries, and that is probably what it will come down to with north korea, and the question will be is china going to be the one that is sanctioned, or are they going to be the one that helped implement those sanctions . Glyn they are not stopping north Korea Developing Nuclear prospect is no there is no prospect the sanctions you have now are actually working. I have read extensively on this. If you look at the numbers, even back to february 2016, looking at u. S. Sanctions alone, north korea was a in country sanctions programs north korea was eighth. That was before Nuclear Tests and missile tests. It was before states like zimbabwe and the balkans and other countries that certainly were not as much of a threat to the United States at that time. Glyn i understand the argument for sanctions. Sections were supposed to stop north korea becoming a Nuclear Weapons power capable of hitting. He United States its clear the sanctions you have now will not stop that from happening. The cia assessment says they have the capability of hitting the United States with a Nuclear Weapon in three months. Do you think sanctions will work in the next eight weeks . Your opinion. Is i would say the goal is denuclearization. I will use the iran example again. I remember clearly people said that iran would never return to the negotiating table. They said you could never go after irans oil revenue. That would be a third rail. And other things like that. What koreans have not felt it is like to have the United States government use iranstyle sanctions on them. You know who else knows that . The chinese know that. The key issue here is if the north korean regime, the elites, the military, and the weapons programs