Outgoing National CounterterrorismCenter DirectorNicholas Rasmussen discussed his tenure and global terror threats. Hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for international peace, this is about one hour. Bill good afternoon, everyone. I welcome you to the Carnegie Endowment for national peace, and i am especially delighted to welcome home to carnegie, nick rasumussen, the director of the counterterrorism center. As nick completes nearly 30 years of Government Service, we are very fortunate and very honored that he has chosen to offer a few thoughts at the honored that he has chosen to ther a few thoughts at place where his professional journey began at carnegie, where he served as an intern after graduating from wesleyan. I have known and admired nick since the 1990s, and we have served on the state department when nick worked for dennis ross in the middle east coordinators office. Nick went on to serve as one of few senior u. S. Servement officials to virtually continuously since 9 11 in fighting terrorism around the world, first at the white house, then at nctc. Where over the last three years, he has led and molded collings across serve virtually continuously since 9 11 colleagues across multiagencies into a strong and cohesive team. Where there is a tendency to disparage, i am especially glad to have the chance to highlight and honor the Public Service of nick rasmussen. Nick has embodied the best of Government Service. I hope you will join me in a warm welcome for nick rasmussen. [applause] bill,smussen thank you for the warlords. My thanks to Carnegie Endowment and staff for putting this together. Making my last appearance as director of nctc, but last appearance as a career civil servant. Carnegie seems right to me. My first paying job as a security professional was a carnegie intern, the precursor to what is todays fellow program. 12,500 in endowment dollars i made that year allowed me to live comfortably in my parents placement in fairfax city, and but veryd my spiffy used nissan sentra. That was my first grownup car coming out of college. Closing this chapter in my here atonal career carnegie feels like coming home. It is an honor to be here. I want to spend the time we have in conversation with bill and with you, but i want to offer a few framing thoughts to set the stage. Here at carnegie feels like coming home. I want to Say Something about the connection between what is happening on the ground today in iraq and syria, and the threat we face from places and around the globe. From isis and around the globe. I will speak about the threat we face in the United States. I will talk about cte counterterrorism, where it fits into the National Security landscape and hierarchy of concerns. First, isis in iraq and syria. There is no question that things on the ground when it comes to license and syria are going well. Shrinking the territory that isis controls, that effort is proceeding apace. Isis has been driven out of most of its urban strongholds, and is increasingly finding itself isolated and certainly under pressure. For the most part, isis now lac ks the capacity to hold territory and exercise state like functions taxation and the exploitation of natural resources. Savings enjoyed by isis safe ahven enjoyee by isiss been taken away. Safethat is tremendously good n. But if that is true, why doesnt it feel that way . Why do we not feel ourselves besieged by the isis narrative around the globe . Those of us in the terrorism expected it to plan out largely this way. We expected as isis was driven out of mosul and raqqa, it would adapt and find new ways to implement their terrorism agenda. Made byt to a tax not direct isis leadership, the increasing effort to inspire supporters far from the conflict zone. The surge in the number of attacks in the world. Lone actors, people in small groups. Hase are signs that isis adapted to its more difficult circumstances by changing its operational model, and it will continue to adapt. For sake of context, i am not trying to take a good news story and turn it into bad news. Not at all. Stripping away the physical manifestations of the caliphate will have profound implications, positive indications, but it just wont happen right away. Overtime, isis will have fewer resources. The narrative of global success that isis propagates will begin to ring more hollow, and will begin to heal to fewer adherents adherents ine narrative of glol the months ahead. Those gains will not be realized overnight. O fewerthere will be a significg and them the Campaign Time we will feel appreciably less threatened by isis. I say that not to spread pessimism, but to suggest that we have a ways to go in our counter isis work around the world. There are chapters yet to be written in this campaign, especially as we deal with less formal networks. Places like libya, egypt, turkey, and perhaps another other countries. A dozen other countries. None of this is comfortable to the policymaker. When the policymaker looks at what we have made in blood and treasure in iraq and syria, they want results. They want to see an outcome in which our threat condition is somehow softened or eased. By second set of thoughts narrows more specifically to the homeland. Unlike my time at the state department, i spent a lot of time thinking about what happens in the United States. I feel good about the work done since 9 11 in terms of heartening our defenses as a country. I could rattle through the things remain to be done in the question and answer period. I can say with confidence we for ande it difficult organization like isis to anetrate the homeland with sleeper a sleeper cell under our nose. Groups like isis and al qaeda know a sleeper cell under our nose. Groups like isis and al qaeda know and understand we are a difficult target. We are difficult to penetrate. There focuses on inspiring and mobilizing young people already living here. The term of art we use to describe this population is hge, homegrown violent extremist, presenting the most ubiquitous threat on a daily basis. If you look back at the last half decade, most of our terrorism problems can be tied to individuals either born or raised here, or became radicalized while after arriving the u. S. The challenge we live at home is not a hardinge a hard edge challenge of weeding out sleeper cells. It is tied to soft power and community engagement, given them to tools to counter extremism in their own communities. As i step away from Government Service in a few weeks. Wean say with credibility are not doing enough and need to do better. If that sounds like i am taking a shot at my colleagues, it is not a shot at any of the metal. I have been entirely selfcritical here. At any of them at all. Being entirely selfcritical here. Can talk more in the q a if there is more interest. The battle to fight homegrown can talk more be wonextremistt be won by the fbi alone. When i leave government, i will have withtribute to my voice. A few quick words about counterterrorism as a broader security issue. Have with my voice. Most people know that 9 11 had a way of changing americans of a certain age. For me, it set me on a path personally and professionally job,has brought me to this and the end of my federal government career. My involvement in the Counterterrorism Mission as a lead me to work with some of the most talented and dedicated anywhere,als serving not just at nctc, but nsa< dod, department of Homeland Security, justice department, i could name a dozen organizations. I often tell my employees at nct c they are playing the ultimate team sport. Their success at their job will not be predicated only on their own work, but work done by partners in the federal government, but partners overseas in foreign governments, and partners at the state and local Homeland Security enterprise. Rk is sowhy ct wo rewarding. Sharing the successes and failures has been the highlight of my career. Counterterrorism does not fit above for isolation from broader National Security challenges. When i said in the situation room, when i see what secretary mattis, general dunford, and secretary tillerson are carrying on their shoulders over and above what is unlikely, it is hard for me to fathom what is on my plate, it is hard for me to have them how they do it. All of that weighs heavily on me, although those responsibilities arent mine. Counterterrorism will continue to fit into that landscape for a long time. I accept there are other issues that demand more time and resources. There is something i would argue pretty unique about terrorism, and its ability to drive the agenda of the Counterterrorism Community. Impactric attacks extends well beyond what rational assessment suggests that it would. Sustained investment in counterterrorism capabilities in the government, even as National Security priorities begin to take over. In work in counterterrorism fact getting harder and more challenging. We need to continue to hire and train and retrain the best and brightest of our young people counterterrorism professionals. Yesterday afternoon i spent about an hour meeting with 11 young people at ctc for the first day of Government Service as an entrylevel terrorism analysts. Spour talking to these ending an hour talking to these in people was truly inspiring. They want nothing more than to serve our country, and that made me feel good for the future. I told them i would be luden for them from the sidelines ahead, and i hope you will do the same. Thank you for having me at carnegie today. It is an honor to be here. [applause] [applause] we tend to think of a terrorist organization right after 9 11 as being covert, that could pose a threat to us but they were certainly not mass moving, not mass ideologically driven. Out highlyng to weed capable and committed were trying to do was harm. Isis has changed the model in many ways. They are not the majority in any muslim state or muslim community. Isis opens the door to a Mass Movement approach tothey are noy muslim terrorism. Almost the crowd sourced approach to terrorism and that requires a different set of tools if we are going to fight back against that particular problem. Wasall other challenge that already there still sits there. We just add more. To think that i just talked to you for 10 or 15 minutes and do not use the word al qaeda wants. If that does not suggest that we are not totally focused as a government, as a Counterterrorism Community on the continue to work to protect ourselves. I made a mistake in part of my remarks. I keep adding the problems and at the same time, the resource picture, as i suggested, is destined to get tougher as some of these other issues crowd out the space. Just the flip the question a little bit. It is one thing to look backwards but if you look out over the next decade and a half, what worries you the most . Aboutlked a little bit cyber about cyber tools and the Way Technology will create more vulnerabilities in a lot of ways. Extremist groups and state actors could take advantage of. Are we doing enough to anticipate for those kinds of threats and prepare for them . Where should we be focusing our attention and resources . A good question. I wish i had a concise answer. Bit, its one thing to look backwards but as you look out over the last decade and a half,what worries you the most . You talk in your remarks you talk in your remarks about cyber tools which the technology is going to create more vulnerability in some ways, less terrorist groups, state actors can take advantage of so are we doing enough at this stage to anticipate those kind of threats and prepare for them . Where should we be focusing more of our attention . Good question, i wish i had a concise answer. One of the things ive taken away from the last 15 years is the requirement to exercise a fair amount of humility. Now we in the now we in the Intelligence Community but to put up these oriented bits of analysis, i struggled to take them seriously even in reading them if they extend much beyond the 3 to 5 year timeline because im not sure its a useful conversation. What i have challenged are analysts to think about and to try to contribute to solutions if they extend much beyond the 3 about is where does this ideological struggle go . We had a conference last fall that i commissioned by asking the question how does it all end . It was in my mind not isis or al qaeda but it, this particular form of extremism largely emanating from sunni communities but which has taken on different flavors over the past decade. Al qaeda, isis and other regional terrorist groups and the question is not how do you defeat isis because if isis is defeated there is Something Else that will pick up the mantle of that struggle. Probably fed by some regional conflict in some challenging part of the world, so how do we get that problem and not just think of it in terms of defeating isis or killing bin laden or winning in afghanistan because that isnt going to get us to the end of this problem. The answer i got back from the analysts after a couple days of conference making was conference making was its probably on the time horizon youre talking about not going to get outcome though that was a little bit like talk about sustained investment because this is a problem that can be managed, a problem set thats not likely to drop off the National Security agenda in any reasonable time horizon. The best case outcome as it was described to me from the people taking a look at this question was itemizing or localizing the problem that it wasnt a global problem. Reduce it to a series of localized challenges where the grievances were largely local and the answers were driven locally, rather than some sort of global narrative that isis and al qaeda propagate. That doesnt play very well in strategies from the administration, democratic or republican. You cant talk about holding the problem that they and get a lot of credit for that. A very compelling political argument. So geographically, it seems that sort of disorder and continuing dysfunction in the arab world, whether it faces al qaeda or another acronym,youre likely to see people but as you look elsewhere around the world , what concerns you the most as you see people taking advantage of dysfunction elsewhere, is it going to take different forms in your experience in the middle east . While it may have a reasonable manifestation , thats one of the challenges isis has thrust upon us is that the effort against terrorism could end up being pretty borderless pretty quickly. The individuals who are involved in recruiting and inspiring in training and enabling terrorists dont have to be physically located and dont even need to speak the same language. Or operate on the same historical frame of reference. So that, think about it as a regional problem now is a little bit misleading because there almost is no boundary, no way to bound the terrorism problem we are facing now. Also i think gives us certain advantages. We have individuals operating in this environment can be isolated and the environment can be in a sense off if we can successfully identify them through effective Law Enforcement and intelligence. But its a pretty daunting prospect to think about dealing with something where there simply are no physical barriers or physical boundaries that prevent the flow of information and capability here. So it leaves me not to be optimistic about, as i said, ambitious solutions. I think of this more as a problem to be managed within acceptable range of costs rather than Something Else. You talk in your opening remarks about counter extremism, cte which more than a decade has animated a lot of different factions of us government. What is it weve gotten right and what have we learned about the cv effort over time . You see a largely personal perspective where everybody comes away with this with their own sense of what works and what doesnt. I come away feeling again, a pretty well developed sense of humility about our ability to engage in this work across the globe. The idea that americans fought for resources or programs are going to shape outcomes in an urban ghetto of a large moroccan city or some part of the city heartland is a little bit pretentious to think we would have that impact. On the other hand, i put all the weight of the world on our own shoulders dealing with that problem inside the United States where we have an obligation, a positive obligation to be aggressively involved in countering violent terrorism work at home and its something i alluded to in my remarks that the idea being that we need to engage with communities early and often to explain to them what we are seeing, what we know about how extremism takes root. Not with the idea that the problem can be solved in washington but the idea that an informed community as in most cases the tools within it to identify and eventually, hopefully divert that person who may be headed down that path. The problem is that makes a great briefing but implementing and executing a program of the kind i just described in the diverse landscape that is america is pretty tough. I do a lot of travel and theres communities i go into where there is a very, very mature and welldeveloped conversation going on between the community and Law Enforcement about how to manage this and other communities you go to those communities and theres a hostile conversation going on between Law Enforcement and the community so its simply not a one size fits all set of solutions. In front of congress can, im asked about t, and our answer is we have a measuring success. This one is probably worse than terms of figuring out how dupre vent somebody from doing a thing . But when nighttime that itting i argue that regardless of what metrics we can identify we have an obligation to try and do this to get better at it and learned from when we screw it up and do better the next time works three times out of ten or five time