U. S. And south korea would delay a newry exercises as communication has open up between north and south korea. Talk about that a little bit. What does it mean . Guest this all grew out of a speech that kim jongun, the north korean leader, gave to commemorate the new year, in which he trumpeted his accomplishments, as he said, establishing north korea as a nuclear state, but also calling koreaproved ties to south , in part calling for enhanced communications with south korea, and specifically pointing to the upcoming Winter Olympics, which will be held in february. Host these exercises are held fairly regularly between the u. S. And south korea. Whether they normally entail, and from a tactical standpoint, is there any issue or effect of delaying the . Guest the United States and south korea hold several exercises every year. Some larger than others. Usually in the spring, the combined exercises are usually quite large. One is a field exercise. The other is a command exercise. And it does not have any real tactical effect. What it does do is it shows that and we some flexibility, are able to have the exercises, it ensures that all military forces are ready to defend south korea, but it also sends a Deter North Korea and also that our militaries are there and are capable. Host how does pyongyang see these exercises . Guest they cast them as whichsals for invasion, is not what they are, which are defensive exercises. Bothlaying them guest room for the olympics to go off without any korea provocation, but also to enable a chance for north and south to talk and hopefully for north korea and the United States to talk a little as well. Host lets look a little more on that point, this from the washington post, says President Trump and south korean moon have agreed to postpone in an effort to. Eescalate tensions trump and moon discussed their options thursday in a phone call. The white house state in the statement that moon and trump agreed 2d conflict to deconflict the olympics. The statement of what is saying that the exercises are postponed. How does this jive with the tweets, saying his button is bigger than kim jonguns . Are these competing messages coming out of the United States . Guest there are competing messages coming from the United States, and the president a great degree of skepticism about diplomacy, saying that secretary tillerson was wasting his time. Now that north and south are going to have highlevel communications, President Trump is taking credit for that, and that it could not have taken place without his strong position. He also said the talks are a good thing, even though if youd is before, representative Ambassador Haley stated that the United States is very skeptical about those talks. Mixedre are a lot of messages, but i think the general attitude in washington is skepticism, but at the same time a bit of a hope that something good comes out of this. Right. Ll we have been joined by abraham denmark, Asian Program director alsoe Wilson Center, former deputy secretary of defense for east asia. He is breaking down the flurry of relations between the u. S. And north korea, especially in advance of next months olympics in south korea. Democrats can call 202 7488000. Republicans 202 7488001. And independents 202 7488002. You mentioned these talks that are going to be happening between north korea and south korea. Has more on times that, saying south korea responded to an overture from the north and propose holding highlevel talks between the countries on their border next week. North koreas leader, kim jongun, as suggested on monday that the countrys open dialogue on easing military tensions and the possibility of the north participating in the Winter Olympics in the south, even as he noted that he now has a Nuclear Button on his desk. How unusual have we seen these type of opportunities between the north and south before . Guest these talks have actually happened historically fairly regularly. The last was in 2015 after a series of incidents along the dmz, which were cut out after south korea extended proliferation against an industrial complex. There were talks prior to the 1988 olympics, the last time the olympics were held in south korea. There were also talks before other olympics. In fact, the north korean and south korean teams walks ceremonies opening both in sydney and in athens. Venueympics has been a for interkorean dialogue before , but there is a great deal of isertainty as this dialogue related to the missile program. Host what can we expect out of these talks . What is the best Case Scenario that will come out of the . Guest the best Case Scenario is they will create a gap for it to happen without a problem for created aa while also space for diplomacy to occur on the broader issues affecting north and south korea, and potentially even giving a window for north korea and the United States to actually talk about the key issues the Nuclear Program and the Mitchell Program missile program. Host what things could possibly go wrong . The model of u. S. Forces in korea is tied because of that concern that things could go wrong very quickly. Of course, the primary possibility is that north korea would do something provocative, either a missile test, nuclear test, or some other belligerent action that undermine the diplomatic effort. Host we are talking with abraham denmark of the Wilson Center about the recent developments between the u. S. And north korea relations ahead on the months olympics Korean Peninsula. Brian is calling from iowa. Go ahead. You are on. Caller i called it earlier. I wanted to get on during the marijuana discussion. I would like to party with clinton from alaska. And john who call it from illinois, i grew up two blocks from the eisenhower expressway. Host all right, brian, we are talking about north korea now. I want to keep our conversation to that and remind our viewers that democrats can call 202 7488000. Republicans, 202 7488001. And independents, 202 7488002. Abraham, i will get you were thoughts on a piece in todays washington post, which points out that President Trumps aids are calling his button tweet part of a plan that comes to north korea. Presiden tweetsent trumps host but Trump Administration official said there has been no shift in the president no shift, and that the president s language reinforces the Government Strategy of maximum pressure to address the rising threat from north korea. So this is part of a continued approach from the white house it shookthe fact that folks, including in our own department of defense, state department, as well as our allies. Guest i think it is not new that the president s tweets are not coordinated throughout the agency before they are put out. I think that has been fairly well known for a while. I do think that it has been fairly consistent with the Trump Administrations policy in that making sure everybody believes that the possibility of conflict is still valuable, and the suggesting to be that possibility, however, i find it very hard to believe that the president would tweet about the size and power of the button on his desk. Spirituallyo be compatible with the pressure rather than something specific with the plan. How might that affect them in any way, the relationship between the u. S. And south korea . I know they Work Together not just in these military exercises, but talk about how it might affect the relationship and potential of omatic options to north korea potential Diplomatic Options to north korea. Guest it is a very tricky issue Trump Administration has been so focused on maximizing pressure with north korea, there is a concern that these sorts of talks would be a way to reduce pressure. Primarily because president moon parallel with other negotiations, they will not go too far. I think the concern of washington but overall, trust in our alliances winning out. Host we have a call from jackson in connecticut. One of our younger viewers. You are nine years old. You have a question for abraham denmark . So this certainly plays a role. So we would be very much involved in a while variety of different contingencies related. O security in east asia host jim is on our independent line from florida. Caller the wargames i think should definitely go on. Commonress is very thread have got the pressure on them that way. China is important. They use north korea to threat. If they ever launched with north korea. We would have to launch and north korea would stand by and tell us one actually china is very involved. China just uses that. Look at venezuela. We are looking at north korea, and china is literally taking over venezuela. They actually control their oil for, what, the next 20 years . And all of this artificial news about we are on a brink of war with north korea, it is just part of the deception policy. Thank you very much. Host go ahead with your reaction. Guest sure. I agree that the exercises should go on. What theyproposed called a freeze, in which the United States would freeze military exercises, and north korea would freeze military testing. We see military exercises very important to military readiness and to maintain deterrence against a north korean threat. , was, as Everybody Knows very much involved in the korean war in the 1950s. China is concerned about instability in north korea. China is concerned that north korea may start a war. And china is also concerned that the United States may trigger instability. Has been ambiguous as to how it would react to a conflict, but i think you are exactly right, that china is a very important player that should not be ignored in the north korea issue as well as variety of other issues around the world. Host the next call on our independent line, you are on what abraham denmark. Caller you know, north korea is an independent country. You can see a little bit about why they feel the way they do because the United States has Nuclear Weapons, and then they are telling us that we cannot have Nuclear Weapons. And then with the overthrow of thatm hussein, i am sure you may try to do the same with us. What do you think . North korea, as you said, is an independent country. Program has been part of a multiple National Security resolutions. The entire International Community sets north korea should not have Nuclear Weapons. I appreciate what you said with Saddam Hussein because north korea supported both Saddam Hussein and cut off the in libya. As an example of what happened qaddafi in libya. As an example of what can happen when they support the United States, they ended up disowned again. So those are good examples about why they have a Nuclear Program, what is to determine attacked, invasion, and an attempt to overthrow the regime in north korea. Unfortunately, they have major menace progress have made tremendous progress. Host so kim jongun has suggested that north korean athletes travel through the Demilitarized Zone and march together in the opening ceremony, something they have done before but not recently. What do you think of the likelihood of that happening is, said . At message with that guest guest i actually think having some sort of cooperation between the two koreas is actually quite positive. Crossing the tmz is not a common entrance, but it has happened in the past. I do think it is possible that the athletes, when they march together in the opening ceremonies, as i mentioned, they did that in previous olympics, but the real question is after the olympics come after the paralympics in march, if the situation has changed fundamentally, if there is a window for diplomacy, or if things go back the way they were with increasing tension and fiery rhetoric. Host stevens calling in on our republican line from florida. Caller . Good morning thank you for taking my call. All donald trump at Hillary Clinton i think a lot of people do not like the behavior of donald trump, but they like his actions and what he is doing. I think a lot of people liked Hillary Clintons behavior, but they did not like her actions, what she did. I hope cspan stays only little, not leaning left or right, so we can come to this channel and find real news as opposed to the other Media Outlets that are acting like a bunch of school kids on a schoolyard. One question to be gentlemen dont you think the Trump Administration is playing backup, good cop with north korea, and he is the backup, and tillerson is the good cop . And it is working. That is all i have to say. You. Guest some folks have certainly suggested that, that the president is the bad cop, and secretary tillerson is the good cop. The challenge is, however, that they are not equal players. It is the president s ultimate the president f is actively undercutting the good cop, in your formulation, it complicates that dynamic. I have found that consistency in Foreign Policy rhetoric has traditionally been more effective in diplomacy. In terms of progress, though, i think there is a lot that remains to be seen. Moon jaein came into power, and that was in the first year of the Trump Administration. Makeer we are able to progress with north Korea Remains to be seen. Certainly we made progress with china, enforcing sanctions more effectively. We had stronger Un Security Council resolutions than we have had before, but north korea has been able to up their Nuclear Capability. Host and we are talking with abraham denmark about the situation in north korea and u. S. And north korean relations. Again, democrats can call 202 7488001. Republicans, 202 7488000. And independent s, 202 7488002. Now, a little later in the show, we will be talking about the pentagon papers. Daniel ellsberg, who leaked the pentagon papers that in 1971, said in an article, he talked a little bit about north korea because he was a Senior Nuclear planner. He writes in the Financial Times that he believes trump has largely created the crisis by saying north korea will not become a Nuclear Weapon state on his watch. Trump said i will not let it , but according to ellsberg, it already happened before you take office. He said this is the First Time Since the cuban missile crisis we are threatening to attack a country equipped with Nuclear Weapons. Are openly talking about assassination teams, as all fullscale invasion exercises, about the decapitation of north koreas leadership. What issanity pur your reaction to that . Guest if you think about the it, more at the end of broadly, i disagree with the point that this is a crisis of President Trumps creation. North korea has been pursuing Nuclear Weapons and ballistic , andles for decades President Trump has the unfortunate timing of being in power when these capabilities are coming into fruition. So this is a crisis many decades in the making. However, i do think that President Trumps actions have intensified the degree of tension in the relationship and has close off some avenues of potential diplomacy. His refusal to accept north Koreas Nuclear power is actually quite consistent with his predecessors as well. Whereallenge, of course, his predecessors saw diplomacy as an effective tool, whereas President Trump has described those as a waste of time and has really only identified military force as what he sees as a valuable solution. Host all right, jack has called in from idaho on our democrat line. Good morning. Caller good morning. I have a comment and a question. Theomment is with regard to carefully calibrated strategy that the Trump Administration he referenced has stated that mr. Trump has taken with his big. Utton tweet it was reported last night that five minutes before he tweeted friends, to show he watches each morning, that they had just broadcast a story about the button that kim jongun had on his desk. Fox avid watcher of and friends, the president often tweets in response to it. My question to you is related to your comment about stability and consistency being a better approach in diplomacy. Gerontologist, and she works with patients with dementia, and she has been watching mr. Trump and notices sign after sign, the repetitions in his statements, the slurring of words, the difficulty with memory, the impulsivity, that really seems to strongly indicate that this is a man who is in mental decline. Host i want to give abraham a chance to respond to that. What do you think