With theel hanlon, Foreign Policy program. And on behalf of my colleagues of us here, welcome. Happy new year. Very glad for the chance to discuss an issue that we all know will likely be quite important in the new year and we hope, with positive were all a, but little on edge about the state of the north korea crisis. And were fortunate that in todays discussion, which, by the way, as you request see, is as you can see is being telecast on cspan, also has a translation dimension. But in todays discussion, were going to begin with polling that done by yasushi kudo and shibley telhami, in the united and japan, respectively, with various other organizations support. And this is looking at United States and japanese attitudes the north korea crisis, across a range of issues. Well begin with that. From theill present podium in just a moment, after ive introduced everyone. Will convene a Panel Discussion, at which time well begin with mr. Kudo being able offer any quick thoughts he has to further understand and thellish especially japanese dimensions of the poll. But then richard bush, the head east asia policy center, and my longstanding colleague here, richard will broaden the discussion to also think about anth korea, obviously interested actor in this equation and a very important factor, and well try to abouttand a little bit south korean views. Thethen finally, playing role of panelist, i will try to talk a little bit about military or in my opinion, the lack of good military options. This is something that will follow naturally from some of the questions in the polling. So let me just add a couple more our panelists, then without further ado, well get presentation. Shibley is the anwar sadat chair at the university of maryland, where hes had a distinguished career and been associated with the middle east u. S. Islamice world. One of the most eloquent voices broadest islamic world. But hes also started a Critical Issues polling effort. We get todays material from, in large part. The first time that hes extended in a major way to asia. Much of that polling began with ands on the middle east United States. I look forward very much to the results. Reaffirmations of what you might expect. There are also some potential surprises that will have time to discuss and then have your questions on later. Head ofkudo is the toa tokyo, where hes done a lot of polling but also proponent and practitioner of track two dialogues with a number of countries, including china and a korea in the region, trying to improve japanese relations with those two other northeast asian powers. More generally, an International Think tank across Different Countries and been involved in number of initiatives on that front. Bush, i cant say enough about. I had a colleague we had a colleague in the old days, as who i used to call the ripken jr. I think richard is the tom brady. And im not a patriots fan, so i some trepidation. But he just keeps reinventing himself. We really benefit from having him on the panel as well. Without further ado, im going the floor to shibley. Well hear from him, see the results of the polling and then discussion. El please join me in welcoming shibley to brookings. [applause] thanks so much. Good morning to you. So much more braving the cold to be here this morning. Really appreciate that. Really a pleasure for me. Not only because were talking about an important issue of course, that concerns all of us, but also because were ye genron npo withen jen november,ement, early two polls. One in japan and one in the of the same some questions, trying to see how the japanese and the americans issue of north Koreas Nuclear program and a little bit beyond that in terms asia security. What ill do, im going to present both results together so see them side by side. For that reason, of course im breakdownto show the in the u. S. Democratrepublican, because we otherwise it would hard to compare with japan. Those i will mention some of through. Go but everything is posted online. The university of maryland, Critical Issues poll, website. To be on the brookings website. Certainly the methodology is posted there. But all the results are posted, including the breakdowns. So you feel free to pursue this the presentation, if you have questions. Theres a lot more data and breakdown of the data as well. With the polling methodology. I have as i said, in japan, ofwas a samp of 1 sample 1,000. It with usually we do neilson. This is all done that way. In their ne panel its a sample of 2,000, among the probablistic panel. Of youngave a sample people, just to have more confidence about what the young people are thinking in the u. S. The methodology is posted. Youre welcome to look at it. Lets start with one of the had. Questions that we which of the following do you believe is the most effective to stop north Koreas Nuclear program . You look, obviously the blue is japan. Red is the u. S. The most striking thing here is two middle options. The one that says stricter sanctions against north korea themilitary action by United States and its allies. Withee how very few agree those options. 11 he case of japan, only think stricter sanctions will work. In the case of the u. S. , only 7 . Same thing with the military option. Then 11 only think those would work. By the way, even in the u. S. , if down,eak it republicandemocrat, slightly republicans think thats possible. 17 , so its still not huge on this issue. You see the u. S. Japan in the case of the u. S. , 35 . Option is negotiations. Japanese, the first option is sort of a little bit stronger than the others, 21 . Direct talks between north korea and the United States. Clearly, you also see, at the very bottom, that a lot of think it wont be the result, particularly the realistic, ifmore you can call it realistic about that. Theou support or oppose United States initiating military action against north to stop itsattempt Nuclear Program . Here,s interesting because despite the fact that you saw how very few people say solved by military option, when you put the military option on the table, you end up getting more people supporting it. 21 its a minority, only in japan. 33 in the u. S. High whenats quite you consider what mike will tell us about really, what are the options . What are good id love to hear mikes opinion on that. You alsook at that, bit mething a little probably more difficult to understand, which is that if you 33 , the majority 53 , support a military option. Interesting, because obviously that is the president s principle constituency. Got 53 who say they would support that. The next question, do you think the problem relating to north Nuclear Program will be resolved, and if so, when . Now, again, this is, of course, about optimism or pessimism. Its not that people really know the details. Way of measuring, are people generally optimistic or pessimistic . Lets be clear about that. But look at how pass mystic pessimistic people are. Obviously a lot of people dont know. Thats not surprising. Givemong those people who an answer, you know, twothirds beanese think it wont resolved and one third of the u. S. Say ity few people above will be resolved anytime within the next five years. Pessimism. North korea has already acquired Nuclear Weapons. Is, do youquestion support or oppose recognizing north korea as a Nuclear Weapons state . Now, of course, people may interpret this in different ways. This is actually worth a conversation, because even with all the realism that you see, may not work,n wont work, the issue wouldnt a resolved, in a way, recognition of north koreas and yet at the, same time, you find, you know, of japanese accept recognizing north korea as a nuclear state. U. S. 8 of the americans are more divided. You see 38 , 37 . Still, there is more acceptance, not surprisingly, i think, in the u. S. Than in japan. Thats worth a conversation. Do you believe support or oppose weapons . Uiring nuclear if north korea doesnt give up its own . Question of, you know, as you know, this has been a taboo in japan. You see far more support in the support of americans that. Only 12 of japanese support it. But one of the things that mr. Kudo makes in his presentation about the is that this 12 is actually an increase, because it was only 5 last year. So yes, in comparison to the u. S. , it looks like a small number but it seems to be an increasing number of people who may prefer to accept that. Question about orther do you support oppose south korea acquiring Nuclear Weapons . We have roughly the same. U. S. , the same acceptance level. In japan, slightly fewer people but its really roughly the same result. If north korea doesnt give up weapons, do you support the placement of American Nuclear warheads in korea and or japan . Here you have a lot of americans that. Ting a slight majority of americans supporting that. You have obviously still an in japan, not surprisingly, but still you have 21 who support that. There is a difference between democrats and republicans on that issue. As with the other issue. Ill talk about that on the panel. The likelyforesee outcome of the situation in the north Korean Peninsula in the years . Obviously we dont follow it as much here in the u. S. In japan, they follow this a bit more. And the question is whether the publicf outcome perceives for the Korean Peninsula. See that, you know, ranging fromeople, almost a third of americans and japanese, say the instability will remain the same roughly. And then very few people say north korea and south korea will reduced tension and improve their relations or even fewer say they will be unified. Dontain, very people think that relationship is going to profoundly change. Ofy differ on the level instability really, whether its going to remain the same, to increase going on the american side. I think people think its gonna get a lot worse and that is something obviously striking in comparison to the japanese, of japan,n the case there are a lot of people who say they dont know. A large number of people who say they dont know. How do you think the north korea affected japans relations with the United States . Here, again, its interesting, because both have, in a way, similar perceptions. 40 of each public been they have strengthened. People who sayhe 4 . Been weakened, only it is actually a bit high in some ways for the american side, even if its 20 . The question, why would it even be 20 , given that unifyingea should be issue with japan . When you look at the breakdown find thatyou democrats are more likely to republicans, that they have been weakened. And i think part of it is the trump, that anything its not just about, is the improving . P but is trump dealing with it well . And so i believe thats what means. Well see that actually in a minute, because we have a specific question about that. What level of military power statesthe united maintain in asia . Obviously a relevant question, we all are grappling with. And here its interesting, wayuse you have in a both almost half of the 42 of theblic, japanese public, maintaining the same level. In the u. S. , its a little bit more. Increasehink we should the level. 12 in japan. 13 ease, some support that, in japan, 9 in the u. S. , but not much more than that. The wayou view President Trump has handled the north Korean Nuclear issue . Now, i neednt tell you this, because you know this about issue. Ther theres a huge partisan divide on this, among republicans and democrats. But the independents fall the democrats way on this one. So thats kind of where that data is. That a can see here majority of both the japanese u. S. Public think that they view the handling unfavorably. The difference here is, you unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable, more intense in the u. S. Than it is japan. But obviously still a majority, japanese, view the handling of north korea as do a majority of the American Public. Which of the following is closer to your view . Nuclear arms buildup is mostly driven by insecurity. Just one hypothesis that people talk about. That its mostly driven by and aggression. Mostly driven by a desire to be recognized. Or it is mostly driven by the the currenttain regime. And so you see that a plurality publics really think its mostly about the regime trying to maintain power. Divided. Re a lot of others, in the middle, quarteru know, a believe its mostly driven by ambition and aggression. The japanese of think that its mostly a desire recognized. That was onlytion in the japanese market, and it really had to do with china. So currently, theres discord between china and the u. S. Japan when it comes to northeast asian security. Future, do you think a multilateral security mechanism, which includes china, is order to bring a stable peaceful environment in the region . Our partners,at in japano, feel that we didnt ask that question obviously, and 58 say its necessary. Only 5 say its not. Hard to interpret that. Obviously thats worth a discussion. Multilateral Security Framework for northeast asian security, which of the following would be most effective . Now, this is interesting, kind of askried to the question in the same way, understanding the japanese think about it in a particular way, we think about it in a particular way. We put the options there. China, japan, south korea. China, u. S. , japan. Russia. Ina, but whats interesting is it though the publics in both places like broader, multilateral coalitions. If you look at the one that has most embrace, at the u. S. , china, japan, south korea, russia, that is the one that has support. St so clearly i think it is more embracing multilateralism in dealing with north korea. To be the case in both. Please name two countries that you believe pose the greatest threat to world peace and security. Now, i want to tell you that question is an openended question. We did not give names. We did not give anything at all. People can name whatever country they want. Very interesting to look at that, because this, again, is worth a real conversation, especially in of the other results. The u. S. ,singly, both in the u. S. , and japan, the publics name north korea as number one. In this environment, they see thatas the country threatens world peace more than any other. Look at whereu the u. S. Is, its striking. Theuse it is number two for japanese. 43 of the japanese name it as two countries that are most threatening to world peace and security. Now, remember, these are not going to add up to 100, because were asking people to name two countries, not one. A list of two, not a list of one. Thats why you get those kind of inspection. Those kind of numbers. U. S. , it is striking, because when you look at 13 of the American Public says the United States is the biggest threat to world peace and security. And oddly enough, it edges china on that here. In terms of people writing it. They dont think china is a threat, by the way. Thats a different think. Its just what comes to the because if you had to rate each one of these countries separately, they may rate china higher. Thats a different story. But it tells you something about divided onlics are this. Obviously you can see the same thing in japan. Now, one reason why this might japan, in spite of all of the other things that weve seen, is the following i will end up with. Is,. Two national or World Leaders you think pose the world peaceeat to and security. Again, its an again, its an openended question. In anyt try to lead them shape or form. What we have in japan, donald bymp is number one followed kim jong un with 44 . Actually,n the u. S. , donald trump is roughly tied, error, of margin of putin, at number two, following is rated number one. And i think if you look at obviously, the complexity of attitudes will be discussed. We have two superb experts on the panel who will tell us more. But i will Say Something general, not so much about from, that we do know other polls, particularly pew, pew had done global attitudes, perceptions on the u. S. And perception of the president. And they have shown clearly, particularly in a poll they did months after the election, that the perception of the u. S. With they correlated perception of the president of the u. S. Highly. Its so graphic, its very interesting. I urge you to look at it if you havent seen that. But certainly this could be one of the reasons why its so high threat of the perception that the u. S. Is one of the two most threatening states to security, as the view of the japanese. That, i will end. I will invite my colleagues to join me on the panel and we will have a discussion. Thank you very much. [applause] thank you, shibley, fascinating. What i would like to do now is begin this Panel Discussion by turning first to kudosahn, our cleelg who was shibleys partner in the polling and ask for any further clarifications, embellishments have. Ck thoughts he may before then, i turn to richard bush. This is where your translation devices will come in handy and just in case there is any kind of malfunction, i will try very briefly to summarize what we have heard from kudosahn. Our understanding is that this should work also with cspan audiences, that you should hear directly the translation into english as that proceeds. I think we want to be on channel 2, if im correct, with those of you here, with your devices. So really, kudosahn, thank you for coming so far. Thank you for your excellent work on this poll. Is there anything that you want to draw our attention to or additional points beyond the excellent presentation . Translator well, lets see, we did the poll and we released to japanese media in december. It was shocking data for japanese media. A lot of huge coverage was done society. Se Japanese Society took it as hot news. Why is that . I think that is an interesting point. That is because america a lot of americans support north korea and recognizing that north korea as a Nuclear Power. Quite a few number. And similar results can be found amongst japanese experts. A lot of japanese exper