Transcripts For CSPAN Middle East Policy Council Discussion

To this conference. The topic today is the saudi arabia United States relationship. Many of us have supported this relationship from deepening counterterrorism cooperation to championing womens rights. The challenge for each side is to reconcile cooperation, National Security issues, while valueing very different systems. Under the current leadership of both countries, these tensions have been brought into sharp focus. The nature of our military operation, human rights violations, addressing regional bad actors and more demand attention and likely change. These issues are ripe for review, and we are fortunate to have an experienced group of panelists today to delve into factors at play affecting the u. S. Approach to saudi arabia, i relationship, and its future. Todays turn to program, i would like to say a few words about the middle east policy council. It was established in 1981 to promote dialogue and education between the United States and countries of the middle east. We have three flagship programs, our quarterly capitol hill conference such as todays events, a quarterly journal come on middle east policy which has a strong reputation among those with an interest in middle eastern affairs, and can be found in 15,000 libraries worldwide. And i think importantly, our education outreach program. Teach mideast. It provides Educational Resources for the middle east targeted to secondary schools and teachers. Please visit us on our website www. Mepc. Org, and are teach mideast program at www. Teac hmideast. Org to learn more about our organization and activities. This program is live streamed on our website, i am pleased to welcome all of you who have joined us online. The conference proceedings will be posted in video and transcript form on our website, as well as a recap of the discussion. An edited transcript of the program will be published in our next journal of middle east policy. Let me briefly introduce our panelists. We will begin with mr. Tom litman, a scholar with the middle east institute and with the Washington Post. Strohlt speaker is dana a former professional staff member at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Welcome. Finally, my longterm colleague and friend, ambassador joe fierstein, Senior Vice President and director of golf Affairs Program at the middle east institute. Joe is a former Deputy Assistant secretary and ambassador to yemen. Of you like to thank all for joining us today. The program will begin with each panelist delivering brief opening remarks, and this will be followed by a discussion system session. Note that we have followed our usual practice of placing index cards on all of the seats. Please use these to write down any questions you have as speakers are speaking, and hold up the card, our staff will collect them during presentations. We can consolidate the questions for the discussion period. I would like to turn the podium over to tom. Thank you. Tom thank you very much, and thank you to the middle east council for organizing this and allowing me to participate in it. It is 43 years since i went to saudi arabia, and in the days when there were not phones in before it was a fully developed country in a material sense, and even then it was difficult to understand the nature of this peculiar relationship between the United States and saudi arabia which had come together when they were at opposite poles of civilization. What i thought i would do is talk about the relationship as is enoughf your image to be here can be traced back to 1930s whenr the American Oil Company got the first oil concession, and then in the 1940s the countries forged their first strategic and security relationship, when the king gave the permission t United States to build an airbase. United states was fighting a two front war. It elevated the relationship to another level, and under truman we said to create the saudi monetary authority. Cents this the time relationship has been beset by serious disagreements, anger and policy differences that you might think would have left some permanent damage. They began i will enumerate them some of them are better known than others, it began when president truman recognized israel the moment it was created. Wrote tob leaders cancel the american concession, which he declined to do because it was the only source of real money. In 1953, the saudis were curious because the United States refused to back them in their dispute with britain. Where a piece of land saudi arabia, oman, and the uae had come together. The saudis cannot understand. Episode a littleknown in which the new king gave a contract to a gentleman named Aristotle Onassis that would have ended the american oil monopoly. Eisenhower personally gave the order to make sure that contract never went into effect. I know about this episode because it was the subject of my recent book, which is middle east policy. Great book. Sold multiple copies. Then came the or, oil embargo, when you read telephone transcripts and cable traffic, you see he refers to to the, referred to the arabs that savages whichof , will give you the idea of the esteem. Kissinger, when he went to saudi arabia, received a gift from the king, which was a bound copy of the protocol of the elders of zion, which is not what i would give a jew every day of the week. In 1979, the saudis made carter very unhappy by not only not endorsing, but refusing to accept the egypt israel peace treaty. The last time i was in baghdad was a time in spring of 1979 when Foreign Ministers got together and flew egypt out. As much effort as jimmy carden, jimmy carter had put in, it was not enough. In 1988, the United States discovered by accident the saudis had Nuclear Capable hinese missiles. The first thing that happened was richard armitage, that they managed to put themselves right at the top of the target list where they had not been. That episodes, episode took some doing to unravel. Then, there was 9 11. 15 of the 19 please do not ask me about 15 of the 19. I have answered that question erday or 15 ye in 2003, when the United States invaded iraq over saudi objections, you have the famous remarks of, referred to it as an illegal occupation. Then came the Nuclear Agreement with iran. Which made the saudis very unhappy. Not so much because of the contents of the agreement itself , but because it spoke to them. Ked them. They thought we were trying to form equitable relationship with the iranians. Then came the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. There has never been a time when the Strategic Planning or relationship in any sense was put in jeopardy or threatened by human rights issues of any kind. Or the fate of any individual. Every year, the state department excoriates saudi arabia in its annual report, and it never makes any difference in terms of policy. Even jimmy carter made human rights the foundation of his Foreign Policy. He went to saudi arabia and was deferential to the point of obsequious. He wanted something from them. They did not deliver, namely endorsements. But that is the way it has always been. One side wants something from the other. Now, the question is, what if donald trump is not reelected . I can imagine, lets say joe biden or amy klobuchar, who are pragmatists and centrists, holding their noses and continuing to do business with saudi arabia. It is hard to imagine Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg or cory booker doing business as usual, endorsing the arms ales. Arms sales. Cooperation will continue regardless of what happens in this country. Otherwise, it is possible and maybe likely that there will be quite a change especially individuals and atmospherics. One reason is, as we have seen in the votes a couple years ago, yemen, there has never been a popular constituency for saudi arabia in the United States. There is a reason why there is no congressional saudi caucus. That is because there is no Political Risk for anybody in congress in coming out and taking a vote hostile to or opposed to saudi arabia. There is nothing to lose. Now you have a situation where we do not need to oil, we do not have military bases there, and unless you have major defense contractors in your district, you have nothing to lose by coming out against the saudis. For the First Time Since 1945, it is possible to envision an evolution of the relationship in which at long last saudi arabia will be treated like any other country. Thank you. [applause] good morning everybody. I am going to build off some of those comments and talk about the u. S. Saudi relationship in the context of the congressional debate, and take it more broadly and ask fundamental policy questions for those of you engaged in framing the form policy debate for your bosses on the hill, outside the hill talking about the issues. I just wrapped up last year several years on the Senate Relations mitty as a middle east after. I had a front row seat to a lot of the debate about saudi arabia and the relationship as a lot of these votes were taking place on the hill. I would characterize the current state of the debate in the relationship as the most serious crisis in the relationship since 9 11. What is unique about the debate right now and the focus on saudi it includesat members on both sides of the aisle, it is bipartisan. In both chambers it is bicameral. It is not unique to the current administration. Debates aboutrs u. S. Saudi policy in the Previous Administration as well, specifically when the minister to engage incided military operations in yemen, with little heads up to washington. That was the Previous Administration, not the current one. If you had to give one sentence to describe what the crux of the debate is right now on the hill and in washington, i think it is that the u. S. Saudi arabia relationship is more destabilizing in the region, or can it be a force for stability . . S it recklessness or not if you look at findings and legislation that is coming out of the house and the senate, recklessness, destabilizing and instability are used to describe the relationship. , werally u. S. Partners create networks of alliances and use tools like Security Cooperation, military assistance, trade, scholarships, Cultural Engagement and etc. Because we believe we can contribute stability in the middle east. In congress, members of congress have probably taken more foreign s that somehow touch the u. S. Saudi relationship more than any other issue iran, and, it is about saudi arabia and that is whether it is the vote for the justice. Vetoed by president obama and overridden in the senate. It is a strong expression about that, and here it was viewed as riyadh. A issue, but statement about the u. S. Saudi relationship, and the senate overrode that. There have been multiple resolutions of disapproval on and sales both offensive defensive weapons, that is not new to this year. It has been going on for years. In the house and senate there have been multiple votes on war powers resolution, multiple votes on this issue. There have been votes on amendments to the National Defense authorization act that specifically are about the u. S. Saudi relationship and weapons sales, and u. S. Support to saudi led military operations in yemen. I will not talk much about that because jerry will do that. The latest series of showdowns are congresses attempt to demand credit note to demand accountability and assessments about what happened with the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. When the Senate Foreign Relations Committee asked for a determination that did not by the Trump Administration, and finally the ant recent showdown was when emergency exception under the arms export control act was invoked for this administration to move on weapons sales with saudi arabia and other gulf without the statute required on the hill. Some of this is about saudi arabia, and a start difference in opinion between members of congress and the strategic utility of the u. S. Saudi relationship. Some of it is about congressional purview, where congress should determine Foreign Policy. All of this has been taking place over years. Members of congress are not just taking votes on the u. S. Saudi relationship, they are learning about weapons sales, how do they work . What do members of congress get to review . What are offensive systems . What are defense of . They are learning the legislation and the process. They are learning about Security Cooperation and the other u. S. Programs and policies, and colors of money, and tools that form the foundation of this relationship, and have for a long time. Now they can talk about professional military education, students studying in the United States, a different kinds of entrepreneurs and economic commercial engagement etc. Members of congress are deeply familiar not just with the relationship broadly, but wellversed in the tools, which means when people talk to drivers of congress about the u. S. Saudi relationship, the general talking points do not cut it anymore. They are deeply educated in what is going on in yemen. They are deeply educated about how the military system goes through a process of approval before they are sold to any partner. We are in a situation where it is not just about saudi arabia, but there is a debate about how military sales will go forward to the rest of the middle east. Against all of these votes and all of this education, as a result of what is going on in the region, consider what members saw taking place in the region that they describe coming out of riyadh. There was a military intervention in 2015 after years of diplomacy trying to avoid that. Atar, was the blockade of q saudi led. There was extension of the lebanese prime minister. There was a round up of arrests and allegedly to at the ritz somebody did not like me saying that. Probably the ritz. A broad crosssection of business elites. Of womensranting right to drive in saudi arabia, there was a detention and allegedly torture of several womens rights activists. There was also the spat with the governor of canada over a tweet about human rights. These were taken place in the region and seen driven by saudi arabia. Debatingwas actively different kinds of legislation related to the different aspects of the u. S. Saudi relationship then there were, was the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. There were weeks of messages about what was taking place and the refusal of the Trump Administration to respond to congressional indication of law like the global magnets. All of this together has reached the crisis point. Where are we now . There is no doubt or question that saudi officials are willing they are very much aware of the dynamics in washington. They are aware of the debate about the strategic utility of the u. S. Side of the relationship moving forward. There is an eagerness to find a way to move forward. The question here is in it just the question here for policymakers and the Community Around taking both in creating policy is, what are we going to do with the desire to move forward . Is the debate about the voicing, divorcing the saudis . Is there an opportunity to move forward in some way . I will touch on the broader geopolitical context. We should be asking ourselves, to be except the premise of the National Defense strategy that the current environment in which thatnited states operates, deeply challenge us on a multispectrum of threats, or do you subscribe to the premise that the major threats are terrorism and fragile states and instability . Stillt case, the game is in the middle east, whether it is russia or china, there is asiapacific. We saw the Obama Administration tried to do their pivot and there is a lot of talk in this administration and on the hill of disengagement of burden sharing in the middle east, which means the u. S. Forces should get out and shipped the burden to other people who put in resources. Whether you subscribe to either of these worldviews or both, you tod partners and allies address those threats. In that context, would we prefer saudi arabia to be in the umbrella with us or not . Iran policy, regardless of your views on the jcpoa, there is potential for u. S. Iran confrontation. Arehe blood of u. S. Forces spilled, we are in a situation we have to confront militarily. Do we want to use saudi arabia, use basis for maritime threats . Israel, there is a debate on the hill more in the Democratic Caucus about the future of the u. S. Israel relationship, but there is no question that relationship between israel and gulf countries including saudi arabia are expanding. Is it in our interest for these countries to Work Together . Assistance to syria. The Trump Administration put off hundreds of millions of dollars of assistance to northeast syria. Stepped in. If it is about burden sherry and the u. S. Government not being the first entity to pay assistance dollars, do we want to talk to riyadh about where they can share the burden . Give the iraqis options other than iran, then that relationship will deepen. Despite everything i laid out, there is an opening from the government of saudi arabia, and eff