The Brookings Institution hosted this 90 minute forum. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to brookings. Thank you for making some time for discussions on africa issues. Coming to brookings and coming to brookings on this day right smack in the middle when many people are at the beach. We would like to welcome you. By ae joined as well professor at st. Lawrence university, the university of which we frequently Work Together on africa issues, which also runs an Excellent Program and nairobi that just celebrated its 45th anniversary. Matt was there doing research and bringing some alumni along on a trip. Finally, joining the panel is john from freedom house. Africas with their program and previously worked in the Obama Administrations policy planning staff. I would like to thank john for an article he coauthored in the Current Issue of Foreign Affairs on some of the promising Democratic Movement in africa. We added kenya and tanzania to the list, along with south africa demo cap africa, democratic republic of congo. Also, nigeria and ethiopia. Between these six countries, we have roughly half of africas population represented and frankly, a fair amount of hopefulness. Sayody is going to b everything is going to be great, but we thought we would bring together a consensual framework. Even though they all struggle and any progress is still fragile. I will stop and hand the baton to suzanne maloney, our Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy program and one of the countrys top iran experts. ,ran is not to far from africa so she things about this content herself and she will be our moderator today. Moderator thank you for coming on a monday morning in august. I look forward to a really interesting and inspiring conversation. I would like to start with the professor. If you could give us a kind of historical sense, situate this moment over the course of history. Where do we stand, particularly if you might focus on kenya . Thank you. Thanks, mike. Thanks for inviting me. When i was thinking about this event and we think of African Security product kind of broadly defined across the continent. I definitely want to emphasize that there is not a onesizefitsall approach. We have to think about local histories, cultural context, and even the colonial legacy 50 years removed in most places from independence. Security depends on good governance, accountability, protection of human rights, access to basic services, and a growing and inclusive economy. Is a very complex topic, even if we are thinking about these six countries or any one of them individually. If we think about african governance, let me just say a little bit about that historically. Defies governance often it sort of conventional thinking on democracy where we have seen gains across the continent without the precondition of being a middle income country. Voter turnout and enthusiasm for the electoral process remains very high across the continent. It is important for us to realize these are relatively young democracies in this context. Most african states did not have their First National election until the 1950s, some not even until the 1990s. If we think about the last 50 years or so, we can think about early60s and 1970s, 1970s as this sort of moment of hope and optimism, but one that often took an authoritarian turn, where cold war politics backed up dictatorial rule. A lot of nationalist leaders criminalized dissent as being unpatriotic. The end of the cold war, as many of you know, sparked political revitalization across the continent. We have seen a little bit of a backslide and a lot of places. And a lot of the democratic gains in the last 10 years or so have been uneven across the continent. Im sure my colleagues will talk about this. If i think about some of the major issues framing a love these debates, one of which is about decentralization of political power, whether local government, National Government, the executive branch has say. Often, that has focused on a winner take all approach and african elections, which has been a recipe for potential conflict. Sometimes we focus too much on elections and dont necessarily think about institutions. One of the things many of us will talk about is the role institutions play. How african states deal with dissent and marginalization in their communities across their countries is also quite important. Youth voices, womens voices, ethnic and religious minorities are important to discuss. Thinking about justice and reconciliation questions, particularly in close conflict situations, have often framed how issues of insecurity have been persistent in some areas across the continent. Finally, before i get to kenya, thinking about the role that regional bodies play, the African Union, first and foremost. , how theyonal bodies play in managg regial issues and security within the continent and not just from outside forces. If we think about kenya, an area where i do most of my work and that mike said our institution has a longstanding Campus Program there. The external threat, so if you read the press, much of the external threat comes from issues developing in ,elationship to somalia particularly the Insurgent Group that formed in 2006 and since 2011, the Kenyan Military has had an operation Southern Somalia and joined the amazon peacekeeping mission in the region. The has not quelled crossborder issues that sparked the invasion of Kenyan Security forces into Southern Somalia. Since 2011, there have been more than 250 attacks in the country that can be attributed to the Insurgent Group, including several highprofile ones that many of you might know. The Westgate Mall attack in 2013, and most notably and recently, the january attack at the hotel in nairobi, which marked the third anniversary of kenyas Largest Military defeat outside the country. If we think about this from on external threat, it is important for us to think about issues of marginalization. The northeastern part of the country has long been sort of marginalized on issues of local development, often referred to as the Northern Frontier district. From the cold colonial days, it was a backwater for National Level investment, infrastructure, education. All of these things have contributed to many of these local populations filling quite marginalized and ripe for recruitment issues with the Insurgent Group. That issues of how kenya has reacted and dealt with the security question has been very heavyhanded. One scholar noted it was like killing a mosquito with a hammer , where extrajudicial violence often targeting somali populations indiscriminately, and refugee populations that are protected in the u. N. Regular should. Threats to close a refugee camp in 2016 have been quite problematic. We can get into some of those questions and more issues in complexity as we talk about and complexities as we talk about. Governance and internal division certainly framing a lot of the security questions regionally, but also specifically to kenya. Electoral violence. Three of the last six democratic elections in kenya since 1991 have been marked by Political Violence. That is often because kenyan elections have been have often been a winner take all approach. If we think about Political Violence in kenya, i think it is important for us to talk not just about reductive terms like at the new city, but think about ethnicity, but also think about larger questions. Just as one tidbit on that, if you look at voting analysis from 2013, the opposition candidate 8 mosta won the top uneven counties in the country and 68 67 of the poorest region in the country. What are the bright spots . Kenya has a robust Civil Society, relative wheat free press, but a musty relatively free press, but i history of criminalizing a history of criminalizing dissent. China now owns more than 20 of kenyas foreign debt. Much of that is fueling the infrastructure revolution in kenya and lots of debates about the cost of than the future. A lot of debates are about the evolution of power, trying to check the historic power of the presidency in kenya. These debates are quite healthy. Those of us who study kenyan politics are quite pleased with whats happening at the local level. Peoples interest in races for governor or members of county assemblies holding checks and balances at the local level rather than at the National Level. If we look at the latest attack that happened in january of 2019, Kenyan Security forces responded in ways that were much more effective in dealing with ,hat attack if we compare it to for instance, the Westgate Hotel attack in 2013. Within minutes of that attack severe,ng, albeit quite the Kenyan Security forces were on the ground and able to successfully evacuate more than 700 people from that region and that area of the city. I think there is a lot to say. If we think about this, we are not just talking about kenya, we are talking about it in a continental context. How has this affected kenyas role in the region . Kenya is a major player in east africa. It has been the. Center of governance and business this history of both violence, dealing with dissent, dealing with threats from terrorism, i think have hindered kenyas ability to interact and provide any sort of model. Not being outspoken, for instance, about checking authoritarian rule in rwanda, uganda, and most recently in. Tanzania. I think some of that is at the heart of making it difficult for kenya to maintain itself as a regional player and the Regional Center for east africa. I will stop and let my colleagues fill in. Senator blumenthal i am going to ask moderator i am going to ask the David Rubenstein fellow to speak to the question of both nigeria and to the extent that you are willing to able to fit it in in early moments, also south africa, two countries experiencing successful, interesting domestic internal politics. Excellent. Thank you very much. Want to speak about the broader trends on the continent. That many of the critical factors affecting the and politicalic performance of the continent include the rapid urbanization and population growth. By 2030, africa will have 1. 7 billion people, which is extremely important, and about 80 of the growth will be in cities. , knowing has an impact that in the 1990s, for example, Popular Mobilization in major cities. The second factor, the Digital Transformation. It is critical because we have seen that in countries such as tunisia and egypt. Occursent transition after mobilization on social media. Is extremely important. Very simply, in the mid1990s, new york city had , where now africa has 100 million mobile phone subscribers. Another factor is the rapid industrialization and Industries Without Smokestacks in the Industries Without Smokestacks. Important, because more than 60 of the african population is below the age of 30. Important shortage in terms of employment. Unemployment is very high. We have a couple of [indiscernible] which facilitate or worsen political stability. Mobilization in south africa, where people were not happy with Subsaharan Africans coming for work. There is also democratic backsliding. I think the continent has made a lot of progress from the 1990s, to the 2010 about, but you have many countries, given if they were not democracies, which have regressed in terms of political rights. I think, for example, of ntries such as those factors are important because they are not just connected to how countries are run. In some cases, like in the case they have contributed to erate their extremely important. , i will beigeria speaking about the recent election and the prospect of the recent election. Everybody knows the incumbent president has won elections, not just at the National Level, but governor tori gubernatorial. Most african countries are what high population density, which means even in a high democratic system, the president can function in a way not very different from some authoritarian regimes. Quiteecks and balance is muted. Its almost like the winner takes all. The president will be democratic elected, but however, the way things are, in the way of running the country, the parliament has a limited impact. The development in kenya has been very interesting. Annual election was held after the contest. The first was to highlight the president. The Political Party of the president has won election at all the levels, which means the level of checks and balances is quite limited. 4 oraps, let me speak about 6 key trends in nigeria, why nigeria is extreme important. Extremely important. Gdp ofabout 20 of the the continent and about 75 of the gdp of the west african region. Nigeria is just too big to ignore. Second point is also related to extreme poverty. Nigeria has about 94 Million People living below extreme poverty lines, which represents over 47 of the population. If you really want to end poverty on the continent, you have to address extra poverty extreme poverty in nigeria and the democratic republic of congo. The numbers at the continental level will be much lower. Extreme poverty is a critical factor, because especially with beographic boom which will turned either in dividends or in bond. Ntial a second factor most of you know here among boko haram, and in Islamist Insurgency movements in the northeast. We have the Islamic State of has led to, which more than 2 million displaced people and thousands of people dead. That does not just affect nigeria. It also affects the broader region with cameroon, chad, among other countries which are affected by boko haram. We also have as one of the challenges the nomadic henchmen and farmers. This conflict is extremely important, has led to the death and itsands of people, see due to, as we Climate Change, the change of habit. There is a deep drought. From the rain went rain season the rain season tot from 150 days on average 120 days which is problematic for the farmers and hedge men. This is another important factor with the competition for arab land, water, which add to insecurity and conflicts among other factors. We also have intentions in the niger they remain important. And they need to be effectively , so some progress is being made but there is an important gap, which brings us the task of anyone who would president of nigeria is security,complex, manufacturing challenges. To lead a nation like nigeria. There are a lot of options and the label of corruption is still engaging with some investors who told me they paid to cross the borders. Also know about some of the when they decided to suspend the chief justice. Nigeria and iut will continue to let one of my colleagues speak about south africa. You were turn to my a peace corps volunteer in the congo quite a few years ago but youve been following the situation very closely over the past year and have had an opportunity to engage with the president i wonder if you would say a few words about where you think things are going. Thank you. Im going to put my ideas out as a brief provocation im not going to try to be perfectly analytically balanced, im feeling hopeful, and that will be my bottom line. There are lots of reasons not to be too hopeful that as a person who was a peace corps volunteer in the 1980s and saw the decline which culminated in the end of the regime and civil warfare in the, now we have an Ebola Outbreak that the World Health Organization has just thinked an emergency, you i could talk about hopefulness, and even though the president was not the preferred candidate, the former president still seems to have won an election we have previous panels where we tried to get them, we had congolese, tom perry yellow, talking about the politics and the rca and a lot of people are worried, thinking the election was rigged with concerns that he had done a deal and there may have been some kind of an understanding but i am still but even when there is an effort to control a progression theres an opportunity for a new president. At least to begin to reform human rights practices. There was a famous human rights campaigner who just passed away fairly recently and has a tradition of promoting human rights even though the Political Institutions are not strong, the judiciary is not completely independent, the Prime Minister and the parliament are at the behest theres an opportunity for at least some political space to emerge. Weve seen the congo go up and down with copper prices and the effects of conflicts in the east, and now ebola again on its ability to engage. Nonetheless, there is gentle, positive movement on the economic front, still one of the poorest countries on earth. I didnt even know there were that many countries on earth, but congo ranks so badly it is a higher number than the number of countries i thought were on the planet but i guess that reflects that im not uptodate. There has been some gradual positive movement in the bottom line that i want to drive home is that i know the congolese people it is the most vibrant society, the most energetic people Po