I appreciate all of you taking the time out to do this. Before i give a brief summary of the report which i hope all or most of you were able to get, it will be posted online by the way right after this event. I wanted to say a couple of thank yous, first is to the Ford Foundation that we are just completing our second year of funding with the Ford Foundation. They have been a great partner with us. Thank you to the Ford Foundation for believing in us, a slightly nontraditional partner for them on this. I want to thank my coauthor, carmen who is currently a louse aos working for unicef. If you are watching online, hello carmen. And then i want to thank our panelists who i will introduce in a minutes. This is an issue that has come onto mine and our team radar more and more over the last couple of years that we have been looking at this. It really is an issue, this issue of regular migration that is frustrating in a lot of ways. When you talk about people who are moving without some sort of regular status, so often you are talking at least in the United States about Illegal Immigrants. In the report, we shouldnt say that Illegal Immigrants dont exist, they do, but they are a small subset of the overall stock of migrants globally that doesnt have status and is in isnt able to move through regular orderly and safe means. Theres a really important conversation to be had about what to do for those people and with those people. I see this report as the beginning of a conversation. We need to be having more conversations like this in policy circles. We need to have more panels like this in more discussion and thistables talking about real phenomenon of people on the move in desperate people moving out of desperate circumstances, most of the time, and what we do about that. The shadows construct is one that we have thought about here at csis because the regular irregular migrants not only live in and travel through the shadows, but the idea of the irregular migration has been one that has been caught in the shadows of broader forced migration, forced displacement and migration conversations globally. Those conversations typically revolve around people with internationally recognized status. These are legal immigrants, refugees, asylumseekers. I think those are really important architectures that we have for those people and we need to maintain those and we need to strengthen those. But a regular migration is a critical global and underappreciated phenomenon, hence the existence of this report and hence why you are here today. We estimate there are over 100 million irregular migrants, slightly more than our friends at iom. We have taken our own slightly broader definition of irregular migration. The reality is we dont know. That could be an overblown estimate, could be a conservative estimate. A lot more work needs to be done on this and we hope that we can do it. Heres where i Say Something controversial. People in d. C. And the United States and europe and elsewhere dont really like to talk about migration right now. Csis is a bipartisan institution. We are not in the gotcha game. We want to present good, credible bipartisan solution to the challenging global issues of our time. I think the u. S. Needs to take a leadership role. That is my controversial opinion. I think that even in todays political environment, ignoring the root causes of why people are moving irregularly and only focusing on people who are arriving on the border and the size of the wall is a mistake. I think that mistake has long term ramifications. We, carmen and i and our program here argues that [no audio] [crowd talking] hello . That was for all of you folks on cspan2 that broke on the Pete Buttigieg rally to join us here on csis. I think the u. S. Leadership is both critical and feasible. Realistically not on everything. This is where my controversial opinion maybe gets tempered with a little bit of reality. But, i actually think ignoring this issue is not an option and so thank you again to all of you for being here and i would like to invite brian, cindy, and key to the stage for what i know will be a very interesting conversation. Are we good on these mics . [applause] can we get on the mics . We have foiled their plans. You probably came in small part to get a free copy of the report and thanks for doing that and hopefully you got one, but i hope you also came to hear from three people who i think are really important in this space, they are addressing this and other issues from a host of different perspectives, so i think its not just about the report and its not just about listening to people like me. One of the benefits and privileges of working at csis is that i get to email people like brian and cindy and say, we are doing this thing, would you be a part of it and thankfully they say yes. Brian, i want to start with you. You are the head of the Community Stabilization unit and migration agency, also known as iom. You have been with iom since the year 2000. And you have worked in the boston, afghanistan, indonesia, nepal, iraq and countless other places. You are a published author yourself on Climate Change and displacement. You have a handbook on communicating with disasters disasteraffected communities and relevant for a later part of this conversation i think you have also written about libya and labor migrants suffering in libya from those caught in the crisis. So brian, if i could just ask you a broad question first about we talk about shadows in this report where migrants find themselves. You work with stabilization and in some of these places where these shadows exist. Can you talk just a little bit about how you think about these issues . Sure, but i must begin by thanking you for the opportunity to be with such an esteemed panel. Its great and the report is very helpful in the commit will weve had a few years now is really important. So thank you. I look at the issue probably mostly through the eyes of the people that i have met, the faces of the people and the conversations that i have been fortunate enough to have over time. Of anecdotes. Awas in eastern niger, historical transit point for migration corridors heading north. I met this 17yearold guy from burkina faso and he had just come back after a failed trip to europe. He told me about the consistent, horrific events that had occurred. Until then he had been imprisoned in libya. He told me with a smile on his face and his and his and eyes about it brought me back to a philosophy class on kierkegaard where we talked about the best day of his imprisonment in libya from an he was sold north african prison owner to a Subsaharan African prison owner because he thought he would be deemed to valuable enough to live. Just last week there is an article in reuters about 15 migrants that were trying to cross the med. 14 of the 15 died, the one gentleman from ethiopia survived and was talking about the boats and the ships that were passing and he saw their faces and they moved on. Its horrible, so what is it means to me . When you get too attached to the horrific stories that we face, it can affect you personally. So we have to take a step back a little bit and take a look at some statistics and numbers and you have to wrap yourself in that. For the missing migrants project , it is 1750 that have died so far this year. That is down from three years ago where it was over 5000. At least now theres a little bit more of an understanding of data. If you go back to libya, i remember when qaddafi was killed and iom, my organization was being asked a very reasonable question, how many migrants are in libya . Check out the presleys. Press release. You go back and look at it, 75,000, 150, 250, i didnt know. Just did not know what the answer. Now approximately 670,000, 80 male, about 10 are minors. It also mean we rethink vulnerability and when you apply that to migrants. When you think tradition, i have done a lot of humanitarian response and an unaccompanied female is fairly high up on the list in the midst of a crisis. It was actually the twentysomething groups of guys who were migrants who were the most vulnerable in libya because they were perceived to be part of a conflict. They possibly could have been recruiting recruited. With the africa planned, there 20s. Rican men in their they were all being targeted. Whereas the unaccompanied females primarily where working at residences and were fairly safe. What does that mean . What kind of commodities we needed to have the border when people are coming across anticipating a lot of women coming across. This is happening. That was 2011. Year when fairly big you look at dealing with migrants and the issues they were facing. Bighailand there was a flood in bangkok and further off of the north. They were all these myanmar nationals. There was approximately about one million. All of them did not speak a language. They did not have access to services. They had to get assistance i was there at the time and king with the head of the who was in a difficult political spot. I really appreciated his commitment to helping migrants. If you only have 70 resources, you are also not helping someone else and you are not helping thai nationals. Tested the concept of impartiality. Just trying to put a little bit of a positive spin on that, you move forward and 2014 came the migrants and countries which left developed countries and more developed. 2015, the federation of the red cross came forward with a campaign on migrants. And i think we are in the space now where we are institutionalizing some of the needs of migrants and how to best address them. I think wehe things should talk about here is the Global Compact and how that is moving forward. Me to if you will allow go to other panelists but i would love to touch on the compacts and what you are seeing coming forward and how that will be operationalized. Cindy, thank you for being here. I was looking back on your bio and reminded you are dr. Cindy wang. Thank you for being here. Policy fellowor at the center for global development. The incoming Vice President of strategic outreach at Refugees International. I really cant wait to hear you talk a little bit about what youre going to do at Refugees International. I think its very interesting and relevant. You were director of policy at the state departments cso, conflict and stabilization operations. You are Senior Advisor to the counselor and chief of staff of the state department and you have done some really incredible things throughout your career. Thank you again for being here. You have tackled these issues both in the migration for forced displacement, even some of this irregular migration stuff. From research and of policy and from within and outside of government, can you just talk a little bit about your reactions to what brian said or this issue in general . Thank you. Its a real honor to be here and its been really fun to have this collaboration. Different think tanks can play nice together. Absolutely. Its been great because as you said, the need for more attention and i agree with your controversial statement of a need for u. S. Leadership on these topics. So, you caught me in a little bit of a philosophical mood. Not as philosophical as kierkegaard. I read your report and congratulations on it. It did make me think about some of the questions and ideas you pose there around what is the state of those postworld war ii order, the 1951 convention on refugees, the 1967 protocol and the caveat here is that most of my research and work has been focused on refugees so i come at through that angle. I completely agree it is time to take a step back and that we shouldnt be yes, there are real refugee protection concerns in the world and im so proud to have joined Refugees International because i think we need those independent voices out there but we also have to grapple with the fact that the world order is changing and we can either approach it from a position of fear and say we have to clamp down and protect what is there and protect the institutions thats providing Invaluable Services for some of the most valuable people in the world. We can either clamp down or we can take a fresh look and saying this is going to be a time, but a little bit more about the research he really challenged us to take an approach that we know will be longerterm to rebuild the system and im interested in your thoughts because i think these are not perfect him will not be perfectly unfermented but they are the next step in trying to outline the future of the architecture that we need. I was really moved by what you said about the experience in ibya around who are the most vulnerable . And when the uhcr was set, it at ho was most vulnerable the time. And the research ive been ing, not just myself but g. C. D. But my partner mr. Clemens and mentioned in your report the Central Americans fleeing and at the top of the political discourse and the rigorous empirical work g. C. D. Has done finding that there is no way to disentangle people fleeing violence from people also looking for economic opportunity. Its a mix. And using statistical methods you can say there is a relationship between people and increases in homicides in particular municipalities and the presence of longterm unemployment and underemployment, so it really challenges us to think about how we cant separate, if someone answers on a survey, i came for economic opportunities, it could be that and the school that they had sent their child to is closed because of Gang Violence and their neighbor has been targeted and maybe that doesnt respond to a definition of Refugee Status that exists but theyre really fleeing difficult circumstances. So i think there really is an opportunity to bring together different methods to create a better understanding of vulnerability and displacement today. So one other thing i really appreciated about your report is that it does talk about a spectrum as ive discussed and really challenged me to think about looking at refugees where some governments like turkey have provided kind of permission for people to be in turkey but only in specific places. So there was in the news recently the fact that there was the reports of the deportation of syrians who were not in the government that they were registered in. So theres a whole spectrum of situations and even for efugees and those who have Refugee Status or are in refugeelike situations, even their status can be irregular in some ways and was another example in the news recently that came to mind. And just to give a teaser on the work ill be doing at Refugees International, its really around how to better take that fresh look and better understand also about how the public, thats too general of a term, but how does the public think about migration and my focus will be for displacement and refugees in particular, but in that example of someone whose neighbor has been killed, mother has been threatened, i do believe and hope that the quote, unquote, average person or many people we can say look at that and say that person deserves protection. We should help that person. We need to help that person and we have to do a lot of work to build consensus around kind of the reality of vulnerability and we havent touched on climate vulnerability which is mentioned in your report, so we have to build a consensus around some of these understandings. We do need public support. And u. S. Leadership means leadership at the highest level but also engaging in public dialogue and Public Education about vulnerability and protection and what that means from a very basic human level and also what that means at the level of systems and institutions. And i almost always say this in panels though there have been very challenging times on refugee and asylum issues recently and by disposition an optimist and do have to believe this set of challenges which will not only affect the United States but is already affecting so many countries that there is a way for it. So ill end with one last the country that ive been looking at that is i think providing a lot of leadership is colombia hosting so many venezuelans and just taking a very positive approach and some of the research ive done talks about given the right to work so not only permission around residencey or Refugee Status, that refugees are actually given the right to work and allowed to contribute and i think there are governments that are keeping the doors relatively open and seeing that optimism and that potential opportunity in hosting refuse degrees refugees or even those without status as well. You brought up about a zillion really important points there. Just two i wanted to highlight. I had the opportunity last week to help lead a course here at csis for a bunch of journalism students and they chose venezuela and displaced venezuelans and the status issue as their topic and so with my colleague, we were the topical experts on this and i learned a lot about why we do this verbal dance every time we talk about venezuelans. We talk about venezuelan migrants and refugees and venezuelan People Living in refugeelike situations. Theres this dance that happens and there was a really important point that we figured out through the course of that week which was part of the reason is because countries like colombia are affording a version of temporary protection and status, and so if we go ull on into the refugee asylum push, that may actually have overall negative consequences in the grand scheme of things so it was sort of the unintended potential consequences of good intentions, all of that to say these are really complicated issues and theres no easy answer to this. If i could follow up on one point on that, i do think theres times when norms are shifting relatively quickly but kind of the de facto what is on the ground and what the political narrative and approach is potentially even more important so that we think about these examples where its not there could be unintended consequences to both practically and politically speaking of invoking status that looking around, are there seeds where this could grow and colombia could be a role model for other countries in the region and kind of also start to think how we build the s