Foreign relations for a discussion on u. S. Policy toward syria and washington dc with live coverage here on cspan. Welcome. The executive director, Syrian Emergency Task force. We have the Deputy Assistant secretary of defense for the middle east. Assistante the deputy secretary of state for affairs and special envoy for syria. Thank you to all four of you for being here today. Everything important in life i learned from two sources. Johnny cash and the United States military. The military as relevant today because when you look at complex thelems like syria, military breaks them down into strategic, operational, and technical tactical to try to understand. I thought we would have our conversation along the same lines, so i will start with a strategic question. As a nation, we have learned since 9 11 that militaries cannot win wars. Militaries can defeat other militaries, but it is up to the rest of the government, ngos, and others to actually win the peace. As you look at the complex situation on the ground in syria today. Civil war, international meddling, very complicated relationships with neighbors. Walk me through if you could what is the route to peace and stabilization . I should start with a johnny cash of i walk the line in giving this answer. I am keen to hear from the other panelists, and it is delightful to join all of you today. I think we have a moment where there is a sense that the iraq decisionngs over every that has been made in syria. And certainly on the ground in the northeast, there is a moment and something to protect because having had the privilege of traveling in and around the northeast six times in the past, i will tell you it is a story of progress and very fragile, very endangered, but very real gains that moms and dads are fighting for every day. What hasrner, you have ane its job and too good job because nobody wants to Pay Attention to it. Anothernny cash johnny cash song everyone dropped the hot potato and walked out. Then you have the question of how do you get to a diplomatic and game and endgame and where is the pressure going to be. It is hard to find people on the ground to believe in geneva and i would love very much to hear other peoples views on this, but i think you have a northwest situation, al qaeda discussions, i know there was a piece from your column that is concerning to many and the question is how do you solve multiple conflicts at one time . I think there is a role for the u. S. To help exercise leadership and get concerned parties to the table and i think our colleagues for the u. S. Government have been working on this and talking about this, but there is nothing easy about what comes next, because i do not think that policy aside, anyone seeing the assad regime. I want to thank the council on Foreign Relations for having me here. Ands an honor to be back, this respected panel. The servicesnk for all that have been done in the service of our country and syriao help get through this horrible mess it has been. I agree with the points you made, gayle. With all of the impeding interest in syria and if you go geographic locations, there are groups on the ground, and i think one mistake that we have made in the past is focus, hyper focused on the northeast and not thinking about the implications of how that affects it and that applies across the board in other areas and syria. The complicated conflict that competing interests for Regional Companies and others makes it difficult, but i think it is important to stay in tune with the population itself. This population that came out in a nonviolent, peaceful protest initially asking for reform, and the regime and its allies increased exponentially asking for a full transition from dictatorship to something they are all hoping for, which is to have their dignity first and foremost, but to have freedom and democracy in syria. Investing in Civil Society and investing in these people is really important. I think they look at the situation today and they do not see the United States sitting at the table. In the last administration and to a degree in this administration, there has been a seething of the decisionmaking for the long future of syria from iran, russia, and turkey. These are prophecies that in our interaction and work on the ground in syria do not vibe and are not respected by the population. To a greater degree, they would look and they would prefer to go back towards geneva and the agreements that we had there. I think of what is most important is first of all, to remember what the Syrian People have gone through because without justice, without accountability, and without really catering to their grievances and managing their expectations, we cannot get anywhere. You are looking at around 13 Million People displaced, half a million dead, hundreds of thousands in jail, and unequivocal proof of the torture of what the regime, russia, iran has done. That theo ensure regime and allies understand that they themselves cannot have a military solution to the conflict and that is not possible. Whenever the regime commits arendts crimes whether that be with chemical weapons, and the world sits as a bystander, the regime thinks it can. The United States out in the northeast. What is really important is that we find a way to create some sort of continuity between the northwest and northeast and all of the areas that are liberated and free from regime control. It is important we do everything we can in the United States to come back and sit at the table where the others are not the drivers of the future and syria, but geneva, and at the same time, by doing all we can hear theigher the costs of ethics regime, russia, and iran and the atrocities unfolding in syria. One way to do that is the act, one that is not going to end the conflict but present hope to many syrians who see this as the very least United States can do. As somebody who spent a whole year in conflict zones, i could not agree more. The u. S. Military plays a part and certainly should not ever be the only answer to the complex probms. I break it down to three things and all of these groups that i can talk about. The kinetic elements. Obviously, the quality and the capability of the Partner Force allows u. S. Military to do what we call abort mission. So we enabled them. It is important to note, they bore most of the burden when it territorialating a i got to the size of west virginia. Thate territorial got to the size of west virginia. We, quite frankly, cannot carry out our strategy if it was not for partners like that. That is the first thing i know we will talk more about that. Civilization. Stabilization. Department leads that, and the major implementers are usaid. That in 2018ied agreement that was between all of the heads of those agencies. We are still working through issues that i see in that when it comes to authority with spending money and authorities to be protected. We can go into that later, but those are things that we have to work out internally so we can maximize the effect of the stabilization operations that we have because at the end of the day, the stabilization part of this is just as important as the kinetic. It is just as much a part of defeating isis as the military direct Action Campaign was. If we do not do that, we will be back there for sure doing this again. We owe it to the people that live there who have bared unspeakable beared unspeakable burdens and we owe it to the men and women that will come after us at the state department and the Defense Department that we do not just leave this. The last part i would say is more philosophical, Political Part and as gayle might have a big concernt is for us as the Defense Department. Not just because it is a massive humanitarian crisis, but also because these are people who many of them children, all they are going to have his one view and one philosophy throughout the entire time. So if the International Community does not come up with a way to rehabilitate them and reintegrate them into society, that is a Net Generation of isis. They have no other input and if we do not do something about that, we consider that to be a substantial issue for the world, not just for the United States, certainly not just for no reason. The 2254 process. Weekent a lot of time this and we also have a who i would like to recognize with an organization that we feel is one of the best out operating in syria. We have had a lot of the discussions this week and it is on us to be there, the military, to enhance the mission of the which leading the charge is ambassador jeffrey when it comes to the United States. Having that presence helps in that effort. I appreciate the opportunity to speak today and i am nervous, point 18ecause my west partners in the room and i [laughter] whoever it is, feed me some notes. [laughter] the syrian conflict is a political conflict. Political causes, so it has had a political solution so that is what we mean when we say there cannot be a military exclusion to the syrian conflict. Therussian military and corps, theyd could attempt to reconquer every square inch of syria, and that would not be the end of it. What you are seeing is a conflict that spans the northern in such a way that if the political causes are not addresse it will go online and on and on and our children and grandchildren will be dealing with the same conflict, i am confident of that, having sat visit sat through the same movie. Clearesident gave us guidance on what strategy to implement to try to bring a close to the syrian conflict. He gave us three strategic overarchingsome ones. The first was to continue the that,gn against dash so especially in the former territories, dash has no chance to come back. To complete the military campaign and do the things that come after to make sure that you inoculate those territories from dash s return. The second was to achieve a withdrawal from syria of all iranian commanded forces and militias in syria. To rollback the iranian power projection grab. The Islamic Revolutionary guard corps has essentially reached across iraq, syria trying to to try ton a bid it establish strategic outposts in syria that can pose a new kind of existential threat. That is to israel and other of syrias neighbors. That is something in my view that is the most dangerous strategic element in the northern middle east in today, and the factor that is most likely to cause a regional conflict across the northern middle east. The third objective that the tosident gave us was to try achieve a political resolution to the syrian conflict under the offices of u. N. Security Council Resolution 2254, so to get a political solution to the conflict that could address the other two objectives. And ale dash caliphate qaeda safe haven that pops up here and there, and power projection across the northern middle east are symptoms of the underlying conflicts. They are not the cause. Have risenhings that on the part of those who have exploited the underlying conflicts. The approximate causes of conflict have to do with the nature of the effort regime and have to do with the nature of governance in syria, and has to do with the outside regime has behaved, and a political solution to syria to the syrian conflict in order for to be sustainable, the Syrian Government behavior towards people and a region is going to have to change, and that is the pass out of the conflict. That will require syrias pressure from the United States and the rest of the International Community on the thed regime and patrons of regime to compel the regime to change its behavior to make the concessions that are necessary to get to the resolution. Thank you for the fabulous survey. You touched on important issues and i will drill into all of these here. The question of chemical weapons came up. That is one of the things that does capture the attention of the broader public when the regime uses chemicals and other weapons. Doestools of deterrants the u. S. And partner nations have, and what should be done about that . I do not wanted raised the red lines phrase, but where we today and what should be done . You have seen two times, the president has said that he is willing to use military force to andto prevent the use production and proliferation of chemical weapons in syria. Willing to use military force when it is necessary. We have other tools that we use and both times that we did, military operations in response of chemicalegime weapons, we used economic and diplomatic pressure alongside this. So we have a range of tools. Most recently, secretary pompeo was able to announce that the United States has come to the determination that the Syrian Regime used chlorine as a chemical weapon in may and a province. Our response to that was through economic sanctions andolical it is only just beginning to play out at the u. N. And other international floors, so we have a range of tools. Clearly, the use of chemical weaps in may shows that the assad regime is not yet deterred from using them, so it is going to take a more pressure on our part and on the part of International Community, and i would say there is a Strong International consensus behind that, and secondly, it also that thee risk regime has not abandoned the idea that they can somehow rebuild their Chemical Weapons Program with who knows what kind of dangerous chemical weapons. Chlorine, weuse know they used serin, so that is not just a chemical threat to the people in the region, but for international security. It is definitely something that gets a lot attention, but we are bringing we have a pretty full toolbox to use. Joes point, obviously we have shown that we are politically willing to take action in response to Chemical Attacks and the military take abilities capabilities are there. If you look at the last response in 2018 that was a result of an attack that killed upwards of 70 people, men, women, and children. Im sure that was a factor that was considered. Samee tracking the announcement that secretary pompeo made at the General Assembly on the last use. We would say going forward, factors that would be discussed in any response would be deterrents. We have taken strikes before, they did not deter them, so when it is that level of strikes that were insufficient. Recognizelso like to and the u. K. , and we hope even more countries would join in the response in the event that they may be terrible decisions to use chemical weapons as a means of war in the future. He spoke at length about the and anotheruence, foreign power that is very much involved is russia. What is your assessment about their role today and how the level of communications is with the u. S. , and how the u. S. Should impose some measures on that looking to the future . Say i thinkike to what is really important russia coming into syria was a disaster. Im speaking strictly from the perspective of the humanitarian role that happened. I remember when the regime was bombarded with horrendous barrel an entirehey hit residential building of civilians, that was horrible. The russians came in, they were testing weapons on Syrian People, by their own admission, they are taking out entire city blocks. This results in things like thinke explosives, so i we should not overstate its leverage over the assad regime. Places they do not have the same interest in the country, and i think we need to find ways of difference between iran and russia to drive the iranians completely out and make russia understand, they cannot afford to keep up what they are doing there, and try to give them guarantees of what they would care about. The russian role in syria is a result of the United States sort of feeding into that whole area, and that began under the previous administration. I just want to add one more thing on chemical weapons. It is important that the next time, god forbid, the regime uses chemical weapons against civilians, the strike must be much harder than it was. Onsident obamas inaction that was a disaster. The trumpet administration deserves credit for its response on the first attack, and even on the second attack, it was even weaker, and we need to up the price on the assad regime. Just on russia having been all and on the side of the regime while folks struggle to understand where e americans were and at what point today were willing to intervene, ask is russia and iran is all and as opposed to and this istates, now the Second Administration that really has not to wanted to get further into wars in the middle east, and i think that has been a defining behavioristic and shaper of the previous two administrations, and when you are on the ground, it is clear that russia has seen this as a Success Story in many ways. And they have used it as a test bed. Even if there is a failure of their systems, it is a learning point. I think you see what happens when there is no u. S. Leadership. Or when there is very little leadership. Who mayven for those think the syrian conflict in the way does not affect us, the russian air defenses in the northwest that are there to protect their allies, the assad regime, are giving cover to a new al qaeda affiliate to launch in launch attacks against the west. There are some ways that the russian presence is a real, clear present threats. Can i address the overall russian world . In my view have the decisive influence over the assad regime. The assad regime could not survive without the support the russians give them. Tothe Russian Air Force were ground themselves tomorrow, within a month, the assad regime losing war again. The assad Reg