You can information find online our latest analysis nd subscribe to receive information on our latest research. This event is hosted by the and politicaltary power which seeks to promote understanding of the military strategies, c policies and capabilities to our threats while advancing american influence. Members ur audience nonpolicy ow its a institute. Were glad to be joined today by distinguished audience of diplomats, representatives from congress, the department of state, the pentagon, active military, and experts from the policy community. Of course, the media. We encourage guests both here online to join us in todays conversation on twitter at fdd. Way of housekeeping todays event is on the record. Its being live streamed and please silence your cell phones now. On a personal note i would like congratulate mike on his terrific new book. For those who have not read it, nationes is a gripping firsthand account of the rise and fall of isis. Writing is crisp, clear and often jarring. Meet the brave fighters on, read isis head until the end and you will find yourself grinding your teeth as and recounts his brush with i was i was suicide car bomber in the battle to reclaim iraq. You here please grab a copy of the book after todays panel if youve not already done so. I would also like to note while its not safe to explicit say explicitly in the book he confirms much of what weve been saying here about the government turkey. In this book youll read about he antiquities middle men and traffickers who all helped to facilitate isis activities from turkish soil. What weve nfirmed long known about the 565mile border between turkey and syria. The erdogan government deliberately allowed that border remain porous. In short, the erdogan government in turkey did not exacerbate the crisis. In some ways it created it. This raises troubling questions about the recent decision by President Donald Trump to stand and allow for the Turkish Military to invade Northern Syria. Fdr scholars engage in a robust debate about a range of issues. He majority here, although not all of us but the majority believe this was a strategic mistake. Myself, i nly for believe the decision was tantamount to a green light for Turkish Military to engage in a harmful and dangerous peration in Northern Syria and an abandonment of our kurdish partners and the decision to on them is something that our allies in the middle east will not soon forget. That the to argue decision to partner with the pkk affiliated ypg was a mistake in first place. Officials from the Obama Administration, and i suspect mcgurk, who i want to thank for joining us would ikely push back on this assertion. This is a debate i hope we hear more about today but in the reports of war crimes, ceasefire violations, isis prison breaks, israeli assad regime advances one gets a sense that new dangers lurk so in addition points in ng the key mikes book, todays conversation promises to cover a lot of ground. Moderating todays event is salama. Shes worked as a correspondent countries. An 50 she deserved as the baghdad 20142016, in om april she published a childrens long journey home about a syrian boy whose family the orced to flee when civil war erupted. She currently covers the white house for the wall street journal. Vivian will introduce the rest of the panel. Vivian, over to you. You so much. Its great to be here. Ncluding with all these distinguished gentlemen. Wo of whom i cross with in the middle east. Mike and i covered the air spring together and brett and i had the aq and i pleasure of meeting bill today o it will be a great conversation for sure. And, were here obviously celebrating mikes book but case you havent heard, its a bit of a timely newsssion, syria is in the today, and so you dont have a better collection of people to you may have and noticed i was staring at my phone during the introduction my colleague who is literally sitting in the cabinet room right now just alerted trump that hes willing to keep troops in syria oil. Otect so, you never know what the news ill bring of the day, and so obviously, its a fast moving story, a lot of moving parts, we really want to ask these gentlemen to kind of take get, you he beginning, know, a brief background on how wegot to this point and then can really dissect whats been happening right now and im sure are interested in that. Mike, well start with you. Congrats on the book. You. Very happy for maybe just a brief recap of how all the reporters got to syria first place. What had taken place in the more civil war, of the with regard to isis, and maybe some of our allies. Allies that we have there. So, actually, i had a big writing they editor book because they were saying this is a book about isis, start with isis. Insisted on starting with egypt and the arab spring because thats really the this. Ound for so is the iraq war but if you arab er in 2011, when spring protests started in egypt and syria, the obama winding down was the u. S. Engagement in iraq and the protests were supposed to be this new way forwarder for america to engage in the middle were nd the protestors chanting american ideals, they were getting Political Support from the u. S. Government and organizing on the tools of american, new american capitalism, so facebook, google, twitter, an droiz and iphones, and there was this moment that when we d i covered actually first met in 2011 in protestors on the street felt connected with americans, not just watching the protests on social media, on tv them, so engaging with liking the tweets, sharing facebook posts and it captured first term mindset that we can all just kind of sit andur computers and laptops like our way to a better world. Obviously that wasnt the case, ended up ason that we in syria, to answer the question is because thats where the arab ended, and there were years of failed u. S. Policy where, in he point 2014, syria was the worst civil possible of the ar, and you had an Extremist Group, new a news perspective and government focused erspective, we all tried to turn away and what happened was obviously, im sure the people in this room all know, the of al qaeda in iraq, old u. S. Enemy during the iraq border come across the into syria and had used that reconstitute of and gain strength, and then they ad this horrible boomerang effect where they went back across the iraqi border in 2014 city of mosul aq which was a world changing event. Brett, you obviously were working for the government at the time. What was the response at the on the ground here when all of these events were this roundnd you saw of extremism spilling over the of iraq and syria . So i kind of got into this 2013. Of it in when i was handling the iraq i was deeply concerned by the increasing numbers of assassinations, murders, suicide bombers, suicide bombers going from like al qaeda and iraq then migrated to syria and became isis, five a month or so 20, 30, 40, 50 a month, and when you have that going on nd that was happening in 2013 it just reps apart any fabric of society, particularly a very fragile one. I was concerned in 2013, we did not have the intelligence overhead. We did not have society, the information. Testified about this in congress in the fall. And all these guys, suicide bombers, most of them were jihadists who were coming from all around the world and as ng into syria, jonathan said they were coming through turkey. Spent a lot of time in turkey in 2013. Look, i love the country of turkey. Turkey. Great erdogan is the leader of turkey but hes not going to be there turkey has a think Brighter Future but let me tell you about these conversations in 2013. Why was i in turkey a lot in 2013 . Reasons, one of which was Iraqi Oil Revenue from iraqi kurd stan was going into the halt a k, and that might be concern for u. S. Officials. We used to discuss that quit a bit with the turks. Look, all of these jihadists are coming in through are you goingwhat to do about this . The answer was thats the second war. Of assad and then those guys. My response was it sounds to me ike youre raising baby crocodiles in your basement. Eventually youre going to have a lot of big crocodiles. In any event this kept on going, and mikes document is awesome, should read it, this war against isis was a vicious, brutal street by street war. And no one should be mistaken by that. 2014, fallujah falls to isis. Fall of until the mosul and i was in iraq at the just and again, it was hard to know what was going on. I was walking into a meeting one night, nt obama in which i got an urgent call Iraqi Security official that baghdad was falling and it was hard to tell. Event, in the summer of 2014 is where it was decided we concerted e a very effort to push back and thats hen we developed a campaign, which i think well discuss. But, that was kind of the sweep it, just starting where i came into it. I remember that time when about iraq worried falling, baghdad falling, because i was in baghdad getting calls saying baghdad has fallen from my editors in new york. Forally, i think were okay now but there was the fear of it because they were on the edge of a very and it was dangerous situation. Us about how isis how it becamegth, this powerful socalled caliphate from just an Extremist Group . Sure. The Islamic State or isis, it emerge in a vacuum. It was the remnants of al qaeda obviously the iraq war. The surge. Nducted by 2009 it was driven out of territories in central, and western iraq, that it controlled and it was perceived that al qaeda in iraq, which was also called the Islamic State, making it more was defeated. But they werent. Underground. They hustled their forces, they of ered, organized, tens thousands of fighters from that conflict escaped, and then you had an Iraqi Government that was corrupt. Letting people out of prisons. Things of that nature. But was feeding from that i remember watching a video and i want to say it was late 2011, al qaeda in iraq, convoy, and arge ake over the town in anbar rovince, a town between ramadi and fallujah. I remember thinking this is extremely disturbing. This happen three years later. Out of a c state came dispute between al qaeda, between al qaeda central and just basically a turf war etween baghdad, the now the head of the Islamic State and al al qaeda forces in syria, qaeda wanted there to be separate entities, one in iraq syria. In baghdady said no, we should be fighting together. Kind of looktates, at them this might be overly implistic but they are the hardliners of the jihadists. To them its their way or the highway. Islamic state, if you dont youre an apostate to them. Al qaeda, they kept this, lets work with other groups. With elementswork of the syrian insurgency, and its a more subversive way. Hooks in and wind up converting individuals to their cause. The t the end of the day Islamic State came from the ailure to defeat al qaeda in iraq, when the u. S. With drew 2011. By december the islamic al qaeda in iraq and lready reorganizing starting to conduct small scale ttacks by 2012, you had assassinations. You had prison breaks which expand elped the group kadri its experienced back in. Hen they started the Syrian Civil War was a major they were able to reorganize inside syria. Ecause remember, we actually killed, it was one of the few special forces raid, killed a i think it was in 2007, u. S. Conducted a special forces syria. N so al qaeda in iraq, didnt just say, lets cross the border. Had an active network there as well and with the syrian ivil war breaking out, that really, that was just the match that lit the fire and you couple withdrawal and the u. S. Leaving, abandoning, look, there is a lot of talk today we abandoned the kurds, this isnt the first abandonment. From he u. S. With drew iraq they abandoned kurdish allies in the north. Succumb to the pre additions of the Iraqi Government and the Popular Militia ion forces, backed militias. But we lost this intelligence. It was a slower sure. By tweet t policy with the Trump Administration. A Obama Administration had more clever and deliberate withdrawal but it was a ithdrawal and abandonment nonetheless. These were ally that is we built up. We say 11 kurds died. Hundreds of thousands of iraqis alunteered to fight theis qaeda in iraq, and died during these fights. Others to address that point as well, but before we get into that, maybe, mike, a little bit about the other parties. We keep hearing about the kurds allies on the ground right now but obviously there are a lot of fighting forces this re allied to in us fight in both iraq and syria. If you could just give us a walk through of that. As john mentioned in his introduction, you know, one half focused on isis and how it worked and why people were. D it and who they and how it was able to fund and support itself. Is other part of the book based on years of different forces coming together as the effortforce for the u. S. Against isis. So we had the kurds in syria, to remember they lso fight with arab bat battalions, so, you know, turkey has problems particularly with kurds but that was a multiethnic force in the end, we had the iraq, kurdish i was really alarmed actually, a tweet that trump last week that showed he didnt understand the difference between the kurds in Northern Iraq and syria. Nuance, derstand that if youre a regular news consumer, fine, but if youre the commanderinchief and directing this policy i think thats extremely alarming, ecause the difference is actually vast. So the tweet, i assume the tweet youre talking about was iraqhe made a reference to going after the kurds in syria. The numberon plating of different groups and also a number of different incidents. Impressive, is so thought the end stages of the war against isis was how many ifferent forces had come together. We had the kurds in Northern Iraq, and you also had the iraqi military, and in particular, the protagonists are the iraqi Operations Forces and their elite bat battalion into elsewhere and these guys have been fighting with the americans since 2005. They are the troops that do the u. S. Special Operations Forces and special of es, and do the work rolling out isis networks. Ome of the guys i was in humvees with in mosul, had been alongside the americans since 2005. Nonstop war. Lmost and the i remember, just there is a sense now, it was always going to be a disaster. Ts something i always kind of feel emanating out of d. C. , the Obama Administration used this line of reasoning to argue that could not have done better in syria. It was always going to be a mess people look at problems with them and say it was all going to be a mess anyway. The lly dont think thats case. I remember, just like a little antidote to show how unique it it did come together, i was with Iraqi Special forces convoy to get to the battle from mosul and we passed through checkpoint and i got chills down my neck because to imagine which had two sides been enemies in the past, were somehow cooperating and the i was with, they were using very bad kurdish to officers, this warm agreeing, like welcome to our territory to fight isis was ctually really a special moment. And i think we should understand hat to kind of grasp the loss of the policy now. I want brett to kind of walk bills gh, addressing point about the withdrawal in versus what weve seen today, can you take us back to withdrawal that took place versus maybe today you can kind of get us started on the present. Is ld you compare here a comparison, and, yes, or, no can you explain. In syria tastasized into the calderon civil war. Speaking ople like to 60 million muslims once a week saying its your religious pour into syria. I think, where bill and i would agree is the United States needs to be very careful. The president s need to be very set nationale they security objectives. Assad n you say in 2011, must go, that changes everyones it created like a fever in the region. Nd the amount of foreign jihadists and foreign fighters pouring into syria, the amount else pons and everything led to a lot of this. And i just dont think we can that. Nt when that policy was set, the eath toll in syria was less than 2,000 which was tragic but nothing like what weve seen since. Think you can compare in any way the syria withdrawal to what were seeing now. Its completely different. As i private citizen. Brought back late in the summer to try to salvage an extension of the sofa. Could have done an exchange of notes which i at the time. Wouldor political faction stand up. Robust postwithdrawal iraq policy which i dont think fully panned out. Getting to where we are now because i think its important to put it on the table with the we got involved with the syrian kurds. Documents this in his book. If anyone here has been involved army, and raising coalitions to go fight a brutal its really hard work. Nd what we wanted to do, iraq was one thing, iraq was a little easier, extremely difficult but and aworking with an Army Government and we had extensive relationships, what we wanted to take elements of the Syrian Opposition and work with turkey and others to build that would fight isis. Nd we invested hundreds of millions of dollars and mike was leading this effort, mike and you would hear, i have 5,000 men and were ready to fight. Great 5,000, get them to our base on this date and it would turn out there would be like 20. Happened over and over again, or the forces that we wanted to work with were so extremists that our military repeatedly said there is no way we can work with these people. Repeatedly. D we delayed the counterisis over a for probably year. The rocket battle, because we reading ry, ive been about all of these roads we traveled, we traveled all these to nowhere. Re roads so the way we met the syrian s was in the battle of cobani. The entire border to turkey was isis. Lled by if you take a look at a map in it was all black. Its surrounded by thousands of to take ters about town. Ill remember this in the fall of 2014. Its going to fall. Assessment, its going to fall. We have own fell, nothing, no traction in syria nd we would still have a caliphate to