Welcome, everyone. Thank you so much to awful you for coming. I am very conscious of how close we are to thanksgiving and the dire reports of traffic that those of you who will be traveling are going to have to face. It is fantastic that you have taken time out this morning to be with us. Though i am not surprised. Because of our guest who is with us today. Just a quick word about the global europe program, which i chair for the wood row wilson center. This is a program that we have designed to do something a little bit different because it looks at the pressures and stresses and issues that confront the continent of europe, whether that is the optic issues of Climate Change and trade, whether that is migration, whether that is the big relationships with russia, sportscenter with Scott Van Pelt china and of course the United States, and whether it is issues that confronted in many and channinging ways, of which our guest will be able to talk extremely el quenltly, in this case around the horn of africa. Alex needs probably no introduction to any of you. European union hes representative for eight years. It is based in nairobi and working on issues that concern all of us throughout his long career. But perhaps especially now on the horn of africa. I am going to begin by asking him a few questions, and then invite you to join in the conversation. This is on the record. We have cspan here. We are delighted to see you, and we hope the people watching this will enjoy it as much as you will. It is a great delight, as you know, to have you here, alex. I am a huge fan of everything that you have done. And i know how much you have contributed to thinking through the issues, the policies, the ideas, the objectives of what europe but not just europe, can do in the horn of africa. Begin by telling us the geography of it, the politics of it. What do you cover . Well, thank you, kathy, and good morning to everyone and thank you for coming here. Delighted to be your guest. You are the one who first set me off on this jaunt in the. Rn my hope is that i would try to entry out of the crisis for you. Geographically, it is the traditional horn but expanded to enclue sudan, so you sudan, somali land, lia, nya and uganda da and uganda. So it stretches down to some Eastern Africa issues. The i arranged it in such a way that the remit was to be all things to all fee as the e. U. Does. It has clauses and subclauses to every text and order that it gives. But at the time, the real hot issue was somalia eight years ago. Piracy, how to deal with shabad and where would somalia go. The remit really became one where i was the only person who d such a role, which was unusual. Secondly, that a lot of the people, the leaders in the region, i think were surprised, pleased, that there was an attention being given at a political level. Nd frankly, you gave me kind of an open book as it were to be as entrepreneurial as possible in dealing with all the different crisis. But what emerged and i think this is where from a european perspective we can play to one comparative advantage that we have, which is that in the. U. , we are dealing daily with squabbles among Member States. The question is we created a framework within which at the very least you dont pull guns out on the whole, at least for while. Therefore, trying to get a hole region, despite its geographical name of the horn of africa is an swe greated place. It is not integrated the way other roenickes or. To get the countries used to finding ways of communicating ith each other, preventing crisis, and a lot of the work i ended up doing is not something that ends up in the public eye. Nor do i spend muff time speaking ser mission, because you have to move fast to resolve issues. It involved somalia and its eighbors, kenya, and each open ethiopia, sudan and in its wider setting. As things have developed, it has really become about how is region called the horn, one, begins to resolve its internal national dispute it has, of which are there a number, and we will go into that. The relations among the countries and the most recent challenges, situating and helping a region navigate its way into a completely changed geographical landscape. The dynamics coming from the indian ocean, from the gulf, are totally altering the balances. From the european point of view, and i will conclude on that, our channing is to say are we as europe, this is the soft underbelly of europe. It is just immediately below north africa. It is on one side of the red sea, where a lot of our trade goes through. Are we in this changed global setting, and given what is going on in the region right now, going to become spectators . Or how do we engage, and how do we define our interests as europe in this changed setting . O there is a lot of Fire Fighting and attempts to change that into some sort of longer term policy. I have told this story before a few times in my life, but when somalia got to the point of having some kind of government, i remember flying in on a cargo plane with you to mogadeshu, when the control that the government had was probably a square mile, and we had a tin hut, and a flag, and a bed, and a bedside table. That was the ray emery. We put you in it, and i have a photograph you are lying on the bed in the tin hut. And then we raised the flag of the European Union as a means of showing that although we could hear there was a lot going on a mile away, that we were committed to trying to somalia, people of and through them, the people of the horn of africa. I mention that because that for me was a kind of beginning. Eight years have passed. What has changed . What is the thing that you really notice or the things that really strike you as ifferent, good or bad . This country is going enthusiastic a transition this region, and Key Countries within it, notably sudan and ethan open ethiopia, through depth that is akin to what eastern went through in the early 90s. That is how deep this change is in this region. That is the first thing to bear in mind. Secondly, we need to understand why this is happening, and we need to look at demographics. 70 of the population is under what, 30, 31 or 32. We all need to wake up and understand that this generation has now gone politically operational, and we will be making a serious mistake if we think this generation should simply be treated as numbers in a development project, to have youth project. Lovely, but they are going in a different direction, which is we intend to have a say had in what we think we belong to. Do we from the outside understand this entire generation it is a breaking c tidal wave over the region. That is mathematical. You dont have to be a christal ball gaze tore know that. Do the leaders in this area know enough about what is going on . What are their aspirations and loyalties . That is the fundamental change. If you look add what happened ethiopia and sudan, you see a youth bulge, as it were, suddenly becoming political. Protest is meeting politics. Is politics capable of absorbing protest, is really what is going on in this region. It will take different shapes. Therefore, what is happening in sudan and ethiopia, for example, 150 million people, those are the here is numbers that are involved. The fates of both those nations i think are up for grabs. What is happening is very exciting. Are we outside ready to speed up, scale up, get engaged in a way that is needed . R will we be polite bystanders making interesting analysis while this goes on . Next question, big change, is that the region has now become rt of a whole new set of global competition that is going on. The politics, and the geopolitics and economics of the indian ocean have spilled over into the region. It is not what we are doing. It is not what the United States is doing. It is what china is doing. It is india beginning to show a real interest. It is the gulf, realizing that they have a western flank and literally strategically doing a 360degree turn saying we have ignored that other side of the red sea. So the engagement i think is there. S it is irreversible. Looks as though if there is a scramble. Not just for this region. We should look way beyond. That sacrament ble, the methods are very simple it is about finding local clients, local collaborators and the like. The only difference is we colonialists and werners are bystanderers watching this. The assumption that we were the players in this region i think is changing. Now where that will go is huge in terms of its implications, and i think it behooves us all not just to analyze it, but ask us where we fit and why. Final point. If we agree that there is a new generation emerging which is going to be decisive in how it defines the interests of their communities, their nations, and my working assumption is that many of the aspirations that generation has are not scholar to the aspirations we have in. He west for our children are we doing enough to engage that generation . So our policies have to be very, very carefully calibrated here. It is a very how can i put t plastic moment. The simple channing as i put it to the Member States of the European Union is are we going to end up on the ride side of history . That is how deep the change is. And i would put the question, too, here in the United States of the it is unstable. It is uncertain. We have a view of stability which includes acknowledging that the popular will has a role if it is acknowledged. Many of the other players who of chimed in, do not represent what i would call an i will liberal as opposed to liberal approach to politics. And that is where we have to work out whether stability from the barrel of a gun can be replaced by stability by a more tess pation politics, which is what is being forced on some of these countries. One of the issues for europe and i think for the u. S. Is in a world where there are so many different challenges that front everybody. The crisis always get ahead of what you might call the strategies that could prevent a crisis that may be coming towards you. If you could change things, if you could have the resources or get the political attention or whatever it is from the European Union or europe more generally, politicians and political thinkers, and indeed in the u. S. , what are the ingredients the you think could make a difference. You talked about the value of popular will. You talked about the players coming in from the gulf, to china, to india and so on. What is it you think europe, the u. S. Could and should do that could make a difference to the future of these extraordinary young people . Objective one is if we agree that there is a transition of tectonic significance that is going on and it is a generational one, we have to make sure that that transition in political terms gets stabilized. We all say, and everyone immediately when they engage in the transition say they will have an election. Every single one of these countries is going to have an election in the next one to three years. In countries going through profound changes where it is not quite clear whether the old still has a grip or whether the will at is coming in it grab the grip as it were on the political machinery and in opportunities which do not yet embedded as an Institutional Capacity shock sworders. S and what needs to be done, this is the next two or three years. Otherwise it becomes an interesting but academic ebate. What europe can do is begin to convene everyone from outside to say lets make sure that we dont pick apart and allow a region to be picked apart by the old methods of the past historically. So it would be about bringing and talk the and talking to the gulf and engaging in a very straight discussion about this. The gulf got a bit of a shock when they saw the reaction to some of what one or two dwuffle players were doing at the beginning of the changes in sudan. The street basically said we are the objective to what some of the gulf players are doing. Fine. Mistakes occur. But they reflect deeper inclinations. We need to get everyone around the table and come up with a common standing on what it is going to take to stabilize two resources. The money simply is not there to meet the aspirations of people who have been told for years wait, and the good life will come. Frankly, in the meantime, the leadership was going to the local pawnshop called the debt market, and selling the family jewels. So we have a massive debt problem that has reemerged, which is going to further create problems to meet the aspirations of this generation. Who are becoming cant very political. If they dont feel there is a purpose it to which they can work, they will go in another direction. Their loyalties go. You also have to sit there and think about how to mobilize money. To say europe doesnt have enough or the United States doesnt have enough is not a policy at all. The policy is how do you mobilize all the resources that are available. What is the pistons plan and the catch throw plan in i may put it in simple terms that begins to address the aspirations . Ou simply cannot tell of 100 ethiopians, half of them kids 30 years old. I take the liberty of that, of saying that. Half of them are men who are unemployed. But what do you expect when it comes to election time . What is it one is able to offer . I dont mean just charity. It is about real new types of investment. It is about getting government to understand what can be done. If the International Community is not coherent, it will merely run force any insip yent incoherence in the region. We will m. R. I. Rory each other and we will be sitting here in a few years time wondering what went wrong. We will be ironing the wrinkles into the shirt instead of ironing them out. That is the core question. And we have to have the confidence so say there are certain things we believe in and ready to invest in and bring others on board. The object is to put some coherence into the International System at the moment. I have a lot of faith in even emerging generation which is totally wired and connected. They are talking across frontiers. They know everything that is going on. There is a nucleus there of new leadership that could be emerging that could begin to reshape some of the politics in the region. That is way think we need to be doing, if that isnt too general. But that has to be a strategic objective. If we stabilize the next few years, then there is the breathing space to look at the next stage ffment by which time you hope the new generation is going to express itself and say more clearly what it wants rather than what we think it should win. My blast question is when you are lying in your bed in nairobi thinking about all of these issues, thinking about the potential of this young generation and the connections that they make, but also the channing that they are going to challenges they are going to face, the push to elections which i always describe as the cherry on the icing of the cake of democracy, and the assumption that gets made so often, particularly in countries going through transition which is chaotic, that if only they can have an election, everything would be fine. When you think about this landscape, what keeps you up at night . One is that there are sufficient individuals of considerable influence in the region, but also outside, for in their not interests to go down this path. Deliberation is a painful messy business. Thats democracy. Two, and here is i think the key issue that scares me, and i think we are asleep at the wheel. Yes, terrorism is there, and i dont mean to in any way diminish it. But i am seeing Something Else. You asked me what are some changes that have aoccurred in the last eight years that i have been doing this. And i want to be clear. This is just not about this region. It is the rising criminalization of economies and politics. Hat we saw in west africa, the organized criminal syndicates are saying the horn of africa, that is a useful place there which we can operate. The more you open up, people flow in. Likewise, regimes that are very closed actually are using criminal methods in the management of their economies. Hat is the point here . Things occurring with what the youth are saying when you really listen and look at the social media. They are asking very simply where has the money gone . All right . A question that some of us have asked of our own governments at other times. So this is not unique to this particular region. This is fundamental. Simply talking about anticorruption is not there. Run by riminalization emerging cartels. The risk is they will begin to capture parts or more of state. Now fortunately there are people in governments who see that and know it. But it is fascinating to know thankful this is what is emerging. If we dent wake up and understand that the terrorists are piggybacking on this, it is one. Al shabab has become effectively a selffinancing organization. In other words, is this a terrorist organization or is it a Mafia Organization keselowskied and wrapped in religion . These are questions we need to dig in much more deeply. If we dont, we are going to get surprised with some really nasty stuff. In other words, follow the money, but get serious about it. Governments must do it. We must do it. So you sudan is a classic example. We are on the record, and i will repeat it. I fail to see why we should be investing in a country where we are engaged in an exercise of moral hazard. We are negotiating with the same people who stole the bank right now, and we are being asked to get ready to put more money in. I am not sure i would ask european taxpayers to do that. Ep the independent jent indigent do the basic humanitarian, yes. But how do we address the fact that other countries in the region, their networks are complicit in this. See civilians again begin to get control. Fine. A country that has had 30 years, the longest single, islamist regime, which eratted their own cartels, those we have barely scratched the surface. How do we deal with that . It is not just us. We have to talk to others who are also engageded. If we dont begin to get to the heart of that, we will have missed a trick, and the people of the region will have felt at they have been tricked by nice words. In the meantime, the money is running venezuela, as it were. Follow the monday. Alex, thank you from me. Now this is your opportunity for comments and questions. All i would ask is if you could creep them relatively brief because we want to hear more rom him. There is a gentleman there. Say who you are because they are curious. I present for the event here. I am going to ask you this question. I would appreciate if you would reflect on the small small hey land in terms of peace and stability of the region in piracy ng terrorism and. Thank y