Influence in the region and iraq in particular in the context of ongoing demonstrations and how iran is working to destabilize iraq and what is the evolution of u. S. Foreign policy towards irans government. First i will introduce our distinguished panelists and then provide overarching remarks before turning it over to them for an interactive discussion. [introductions] our panelel introduce 20s, Michael Pidgeon has years of working on security and counterinsurgency and policy issues in the mideast. Noise] timeent considerable asking on influence in iraq an advisor embedded. The iranians are interfering with the microphone. The abbasid is applicable activist, founder and president of the rock foundation, a Nonprofit Organization committed to the support and promotion of democracy and human rights. [loud mic feedback] we need technical help. Is a get . Better. From november 2003 to march 2000 and five, she joins the double Medic Service rep resenting iraq before the u. S. Government. Anothernior panelist is a senior fellow focusing on iraq and terrorism and intelligent and plea variously a fellow at the American Enterprise institute and director of the middle east initiative at the project for the new american century. For i turn it over to our panelists and i hope the mike is working, i wanted to make a few introductory remarks that hopefully will help frame the discussion today. That toy conviction is counter iranian hard power we need to dismantle iranian soft power. For this, we need to understand multiple and contradictory streams of messaging. In iraq, irans soft power is an overarching narrative of regional indigenous reason degen us resistance against imperialism. And as a cover for its hegemonic projects in iraq. Its success is largely due to the lack of a coherent alternative that exposes contradictions and reveals a utilitarian character. The alternative can be based on the unified national identity. This is something that the abbasid or will address. Iraqis need to know the level of usurpation by iranians. Story,bit, story by about every ministry and every institution and the cables are part. This is something michael will look at as well. For the last five weeks, more than 200,000 iraqis across the country have been protesting on any given day. Over 320 by the last count that i have seen have been killed and over 15,000 wounded. The protesters are angry about corruption, unemployment and also irans influence. They include idealistic secular youth and workingclass as well is others from the south. I want to suggest that iraq and lebanon as part of a developing revolt against efforts by iran to protect its power throughout the middle east to project its power did middle east. It is time to listen to the protesters and what they want, to support their demands for new social contract valid by and for iraqis rather than at the behest irans dominion and how to be do that, what are the limits of iraqi nationalism in this context . Turning it over first we balance that the u. S. Role is needed and there are legitimate reasons not to trust this. Turning it over, iraqis have affirmed their desire to reverse the growing iranian influence in the country what are the limits and challenges of the reemergence of iraqi nationalism . It breaks a formula that was artificially imposed after the United States enshrines a system of divisive power across ethnic and sectarian lines. Thank you, patricia. Thank you to the Hudson Institute for hosting the event and hosting me what is really extraordinary about the protests, it is now called the uprising and some people in iraq call it a revolution a popular resolution revolution. Baghdad all, it is in and in the south which is predominantly shia areas. The thing that is really remarkable is the boldness of the protesters, and the slogans they are raising against iranian influence and against the Political Parties, including the militias, that are deemed to be supported and encouraged by iran. I say this is extraordinary because it is very dangerous for these protesters you do not openly rip down the posters of khomeini or shia militia leaders, without fearing consequences there are consequences and this outbreak of resentment against iranian attempts of controlling, and you spoke about soft power, there is in normas there is an Enormous Economic control of iran and this is something that has been suppressed for a long time in thet in basra summer of 2018. It has reemerged this year, it has reemerged in a more powerful way and much more openly this is really a turning point that shows true sentiment is in the shia regions of iraq, this is their way of controlling the question is, this is a popular protest movement, but it hints against entrenched political interest principally, it is exercised by our militias, who in theory and in print, follow the part of the Iraqi Armed Forces and come under control of the commanderinchief, who was the Prime Minister, but in practice though, these malicious are not not underlitias are such control they are outside of the armed forces and they behave as a team we have seen a reaction by these against the militias. The two have been in confrontation the protesters have torn down posters and torn down the headquarters of the militia parties in a number of cities , in basra and so forth. Militias have retaliated from time to time, we have seen videos that clearly show the militia members, from their own headquarters, allegedly in selfdefense shooting other at the protesters who are trying to storm those offices, so we really do have a change it is the open defiance that is expressed by the protesters do you want to comment on this . I would agree with all of that, but i think it is going to be very difficult for the iraqi political establishment to disengage itself from iranian influence because it is so intertwined. It is no secret to say, and i think that was hinted at, they , howimes intercept expose deeply they are financially intertwined. Iran does not like to spend a lot of money and building up networks. But it does spend money and you can buy a lot in iraq. Think you have to keep in the back of your mind, there is some sense that iran is the last resort. Uncleort of the shiite who will come to rescue things really get unpleasant. Iraqi community have to become a lot more confident. They have to develop Greater National pride. As they do that, and i think that is the inevitable, then the tension with iran is inevitable. If you put truth is, and iraniansia, a in the same room, within short time the iranians will be acting simplistically. And it does get on your nerves. All these factors really militate against longterm iranian domination of the iraqi establishment and the iraqi political system. In the short term i do not see an effective countervailing force. Certainly the United States is not it. I think it is fair to say now the iranians largely beat the United States in iraq. And i doubt, i do not see that really reversing. Gamenk this is largely a among the iraqis and in between iraqis and the iranians. That is an excellent point that the United States has lost iran in iraq and the iraqis are trying to win it back what is interesting about that is the lack of a strategy in iraq has not been addressed by iraqis it is happening now they willing to push back against the status quo in baghdad with their lives like you said, they are willing to die for these things, and basically standing in the square and protesting against simple things, water, internet, and a future. Iraqis want to see less and less of a military america and less and less of a diplomat, want to see university professors, democrats, private Sector Investment in iraq and want a future and this is an opportunity for the United States to get iraq right by doing with the protesters want, and that may be in action or nothing, but what they are asking for right now is International Support and theyre asking for the United States government not to support baghdad, and that is something we have seen two weeks ago, the u. S. Was supporting baghdad against the supporters against the protesters. Another or not. What is interesting, i got a chance to sit in meetings with strategists in a coalition in dc and members of parliament, they were in agreement that this is not the time to engage baghdad this is not the time to get a lifeline to his government this is a chance to support the protesters by putting a spotlight on it with International Media we know what the protesters want they want Anderson Cooper in Tahrir Square it is simple they want International Media their complaint is a should not be ok to kill 326 iraqis in baghdad and have the world not care because there was a benchmark that you can kill 500 he cannot kill iranians without losing iran but he can kill arabs in other places using iraqi militias some reports say the Afghan Militia are now in iraq and iran. They were cultivated by the forces to deploy there were 20,000 deployed to syria and they have had almost a thousand casualties, and now we are reports that the group are in baghdad fatah mayun. They are in small numbers, but they are there this is something that is very concerning but all the iraqis are asking for is a media spotlight, showing that people care i got back from a conference i got back from a conference yesterday in bahrain and everyone is talking about the protest in iraq they are seeing the mismanagement of the economies in all three countries they may not necessarily be against iran, but i would argue that it is because the mismanagement of the economy in iran, the mismanagement of an economy in baghdad, and lebanon all tied to the main influences in these countries and we know who the main influences are in lebanon it is has below. Party paired up with the fontana party who is how sane so the money is guy. Fatah party, hassan suleimanis guy. Mike, youve been talking about the same thing for the last four years you see it coming and it is here it is an opportunity now for the us to get iraq right by simply doing those two things what is important, and i talked to an iraqi who knows this well, this gentleman right here, and everyone has blood on their hands in iraq and iraq is asking for help here just before we jump into that, i want to ask a followup question with regard to the differences, can we talk about the differences between the groups when it comes to nationalism, and what is the risk of regionalism . [indiscernible] get basla will we saying [foreign language] first, can i backtrack . The figure of 320 was weeks ago. Their recent figures of 450. Unfortunately do not have anybody keeping track of statistics paired undoubtedly, the government is, the mystery of health, but they are not releasing the ministry of health, but they are not releasing numbers. The 320 number we should always say this was weeks ago because one has to be realistic. Do, ims of what can one would add something, michael. It is not just that they want Anderson Cooper and cnn and there. It is extraordinary that neither the Un Security Council has taken up the issue. The on Human Rights Council in geneva has not taken up the issue. Yes, we have had reports from msd international and Human Rights WatchAmnesty International and Human Rights Watch, but they are not international bodies. A lot of the protesters are now talking about the need for International Multinational bodies to at least begin a process of accountability. Of investigation. Because the Iraqi Government is certainly not doing that. And people are dying every day. And i can tell you that the intensity of the violence against protesters has increased in the last week. Tohink there is now a push completely quell the demonstrators. It is sort of like the Irresistible Force meeting the immovable object. The Irresistible Force being the protesters and the immovable object being the government. I think the government now feels they really must crush this and end this. And they are willing to go as far as it takes. So these are things that could be done. Lets talk a little bit about the nationalism because i know it was mentioned earlier. The other thing that is very salient in these protests, is the ubiquitous call that you find everywhere in these protests of an air back in arabic they say [speaking arabic], it is more like a patrimony, something you belong to that you love that youre proud of. And that you feel loyalty toward. This is really what they have been asking for, because they have not had that in the last 16 years, one can at argue they have not had that the last 25 years and maybe even going back. Homelandraqis want a to which they feel a sense of belonging. And of which they can feel proud. Not call by the way has divided baghdad from basra. It has been constant, throughout all of the protests in all of the areas. Are there differences between baghdad and basra, and what does that look like . There are differences, partially because basra feels far more deprived than any other province in iraq. The Economic Situation and the situation of services is far worst than it is in baghdad. Yet basra always maintains that this is a double injustice because it provides 90 of iraqs revenue. Province that contributes so much to ox inget, gets extremely little terms of services, goods and services. So there is an added grievance in basra. Protest, there certainly was a sense of regionalism. By peoplewere calls in basra for creating a region of basra similar to the kurdish region. With all of the rights, the authorities, the quasiindependence that the curtis region that the kurdish region enjoys. Some in basra including politicians and professionals, want to recreate the same thing in the province of basra. That regionalism certainly was emergent. Has not emerged during these protests. If it is there than it has been in a sense, sort of, the wave of the protests has submerged it. Whether it will reemerge afterwards is not clear. Because there is this unifying of we want a patrimony. It may be a unifier in the long run. It may be the alternative that we were saying, does not exist yet. It may become that. Before i turn it over to comments, i want to follow up to ask you about the role of the sunnis who have been standing by, with the question of what can be done to fold the sunnis in this process and for them to be able to define these events as well. Lot,is question is asked a often in a different way, why are they protesting . There are several reasons. One is that when the sunnis protested in 2012 and 2013, the backlash from their government, they shot and killed them, and they accused the protesters of being a conduit for isis, if you will remember isise bathis and the bathis and isis are one. Into the sunnis are guilty until proven innocent they do not want to come out and be accused again of reintroducing isis all of the sunni provinces have just emerged from isis occupation and their cities and communities have been devastated, not just physical infrastructure, but the communities have been torn apart, crushed, and therefore, their ability to organize together is not there i would have heard factor. The shia are protesting because they consider the government in baghdad to be a shiite government which it is. Which it is. Therefore, their level of expectation for their government is higher than the expectation of the sunnis from the shiite government so, there is an imbalance of expectations. The shiite feels like this is our government, but what have they given us . They have robbed us it is not exactly, and a sense, you were talking about shiite in terms of population i just wanted to jump in on that what is interesting is the shiite protesters, there are two myths here you one is if pm abadi was not the Prime Minister, it would not be happening the second thing is the shiite youth are not tied to al sadar this was to show iraqis this is a guy we could move around what is interesting to your point about this is the first time and when i have talked to sunnis and kurds in iraq, they dont want to protest because when they took a legal stance in the kirkuk referendum, they were met with military force this is the shiite youth for the first time, 68 are under the age of 30 they know what it is like to live under these conditions one thing im hearing and i would like to pose this to the ambassador, is they want a president ial system. They want to be able to elect somebody with the popular vote in charge, and they dont believe the Prime Minister necessarily needs to be a shiite Prime Minister those are major changes when i talked to the sunnis and kurds, they are sitting on the sidelines to see how much power the movement has it can be sustained and can become an Iraqi Movement when we her will be here words like, iraqi should be free and those are big statements we are hearing that. The sunnis and the kurds will be hesitant to jump on board until the u. N. Is in there the human , Rights Council and other International Organizations are in there that should care that iraqis are being shot in the face. I think it is an opportunity for International Communities to take iraq away from iran finally we dont have a coherent policy, but the iraqis may have one. Im skeptical of anything that anything like that is going to happen in the short term i mean, iraq is a deeply fractured place. I mean, i have the greatest sympathy for the folks down south but that area is brutally poor. There are places in so