Alex rondos, the special representative to the horn of africa discussed europes aid to that northeast region including thiopia, sudan and djibouti. It included a talk about the middle east influence in the region. Just a quick word about the Global Europe Program which i chair for the Woodrow Wilson program center. This is design today do Something Different because it looks at the stresses and issues that confront the continent of europe whether thats the arctic and the issues of Climate Change and trade. Whether thats migration or the big relationships with russia, with china and of course, the United States and mr. Its issues that confronted whether its issues that confronted in many issues and challenging ways. Our guests will be able to talk extremely eloquently in this ase around the horn of africa. Alex needs to introduction to any of you. Hes been the European Union special representative for the horn of africa he tells me eight years now. Its based now in nairobi and has been working on issues that concern all of us throughout his long career. But perhaps especially now on the horn of africa. And im going to begin by asking him a few questions. And then invite you to join in he conversation. We have cspan here. And we hope the people watching this will enjoy it as much as ou will. Im a huge fan of everything youve done. And i know how much you have contributed to thinking through the issues, the policies, the ideas, the objectives of what europe but not just europe can o in the horn of africa. What you do cover . For everyonek you, coming here. Elighted to be your guest. My hope always that i would keep i would try to keep it out of the crisis entry for you. The remit geographicly is is the traditional horn that expanded to include now sudan, south dan, trieer south sudan, jibouti, somalia, kenya, and uganda. So it tretches down into some Eastern African issues. The e. U. s arranged it in such a way that the remit was to be sort of all things to all eople. It has clauses and sub clauses that it gets. But the real issue was somalia. Piracy how to deal with shabab. Where would somalia go . And somalia is part of the region. So the remit really became one where i was the only person who had such a role. Which was unusual. And a lot of the people, the leaders in the region i think were surprised, pleased, that there was an attention being given at a political level. And frankly, you know, you gave me a kind of a an open book as it were to be an entrepreneurial as possible in dealing with all the different crises. But what emerged and i think this is where from a european perspective, we could play to one comparative advantage that we have, which is that in the e. U. , were dealing daily with squabbles among member states. The question is we created a framework within which at the very least you dont pull guns out on the horn. And we havent for a while. And therefore trying to get a whole region which was, you know, despite its geographical name in the horn of africa is a pretty disaggregated place. Its not integrated in the way that other regions are and therefore getting the countries among themselves to get used to finding ways of communicating with each other, preventing crises. And i love the work that im doing. Its stuff that doesnt anear the public eye. Its nor, do i spend much time seeking permission to do something because you have to move fast. In order to resolve issues. So it involved somalia, kenya, uganda, kenya ethiopia above all and certainly lately sudan, south sudan, sudan in its wide assessing. And as its developed, its really come about about how this one called the horn begins to resolve the dispute. And well get into that. And the most recent challenge is situating and helping a region navigate its way into a completely changed geographical landscape. The dynamics coming from the indian ole ocean from the gulf totally altering the balance. And our challenge is just to say well, are we as europe this is the sort of soft underbelly of europe. Its just immediately below north africa. And its on the the on one side of the red sea where a lot of our trade goes through. Are we in this changed global setting and given what is going on in the region right now, going to become spectators or how do we engage . And how do we define our interests in europe in this changed setting . So theres a lot of firefighting and a occasional attempts to translate that into some kind of longer term policy. I told this story before, a few times in my life. But when somalia got to the point of having some kind of government, i remember flying in on a cargo plane with you to the airport in mogea dish you when mogadishu when the control was probably a square mile. And we had a tin hut and a bed that bedside table, and was the embassy. And we put you in it. And i have photograph of you liing in the bed in a tin hat. And we raised the glag of the European Union as a we raised the flag of the European Union as a way to show that we are committed to trying to support the people of the horn of africa. I mentioned that because thats a begin. What are the things that really strike you as different good or bad . Ee, its yeah, its, this country is going through a transition, the country, this region and Key Countries noo it. Notably sudan and ethiopia but also somalia through a that is n of a depth how deep the change. Is and i think thats the first thing to bear in mind. Secondly, we need to understand why this is happening. 70 of the population is under 31, 32. And we all need to wake up and this generation has now gone politically operational. Have the upteenth youth project. We intend to have a say in what we think we belong to. Do we outside understand what this entire generation its a demographic tidal wave breaking over the politics of the region. Thats just mathematical. You dont have to be a crystal ball gaze tore understand that. But do we know enough . Do the leaders even know enough about what is going on. What are the aspirations, what are their loyalties . So that is the fundamental change. Look at what happened in ethiopia and sudan. You see this huge thing suddenly becoming political. Protest meeting politics. The politics capable of absorbing protests . Is whats really going on in this region. And it will take different shapes. Therefore whats happening in sudan and ethiopia, for example, 150 Million People. Those are the sheer numbers that re involved. What is happening is very exciting. Ready to speed up. Scale up. Get engaged in a way thats noded . Or will we be polite bystanders making interesting analysis while this goes on . Why . Next question. Big change is that the region has now become part of a whole new set of global competition thats begin on. The politics and the geo politics and geo economics of the indian ocean have spilled ver into the region. Its india beginning to show a real interest. It is the gulf realizing they have a western flag and strategically doing a 360 degree turn and saying weve ignored that side of the red sea. So the engagement is there. It is ir verseable it is irreversible. At the moment, theres a new scramble not just for this region. We should look way beyond. That scramble, the only difference its about finding local clients, local collaborators and the like. And the only difference is that e werners and the former colonialists are kind of buy stand ners watching this. And the assumption that we were the player in this region, i think, is changing. Now, where that will go is the is huge. N terms of its implications. It behooves us where we fit. If we agree that there is a new generation emerging which is going to be decisive in how we decide the interest of their communities, their nations. And my working assumption is that many of the aspirations that generation has are not dissimilar to the aspirations we have in the west for our clirn. Are we doing enough to engage that generation . So, our policies have to be very, very carefully calibrated here because its a very how can i put it . Plastic moment. And who we align with i mean, the simple challenge that we put it through, certainly the states of the European Union iser are we going end up on the right side of history . That is how deep the change. Is and i put the same question here too in the United States. It is unstable. It is uncertain. We have a view of stable which includes acknowledging that the popular will has a role if it is cknowledged. Many of this other players represent an illliberal as opposed to a liberal approach. And thats what we have to work out whether stability from the barrel of a gun can be replaced by stability created by a more a participatory politics which is what is being forced on some of these countries. You know, someone of the issues for europe and i think for the u. S. Is in a world where there are so many different challenges that confront everyone, the crises always get ahead of, what you might call the strategies that can prevent the crisis that maybe coming towards you. If you if you could change things if you could have the resources or get the political attention or whatever it is from European Union or europe more generally, politicians and political thinkers, and indeed in the u. S. , what are the ingredients that you think could make a difference . Youve talked about being aware of the value of popular will. You talked about the players who are coming in from the gulf to china to india and so on. What is it that you think europe, the u. S. Could and should do that could make a difference to the future of these extraordinary young people . Objective one, if we agree that ere is a transition of tectonic significance thats going on and its the general rational one. We generation nal one, we could make thure that that make sure that that gets stabilized. We all say and everyone immediately when they engage the transition say theyll have an election. Every single one of these countries is going to have an election in the next two to three years, well, one to to three years. In countries going through profound changes where its not quite clear whether the old still has a grip or whether the grab ts coming in will the grip as it were on the political machinery and in countries which, you know, do an yet have deeply embedded Institutional Capacity to act as shock absorbers that come and mustards the competitiveness of lectoral politics. So therefore, what needs be done, otherwise this becomes an interesting but academic debate. Where europe can step in an has every interest of doing so, is to begin to convene everyone from outside to say lets make sure that we dont pick apart and a lower region to be picked apart by the old methods of the past historically. And so it would be about about bringing an talking to the gulf and engaging in a very straight discussion about this. And the gulf i believe got a bit o a shock when they saw the reaction to some of what one or two gulf players were doing at the beginnings of the changes in sudan. They objected to one of the gulf players were doing. Fine. They reflect deeper inclinations. We need to get everyone around the table and come up with a common understanding on what its going to take to stabilize. Wo, resources. He money is simply not there who have been told to people, wait and the good time will come. Meantime it was going to the local pawnshop and selling the family jewels. Thats in effect whats been happening some of we have a massive death problem thats reemerged, which is going to further create problems to meet the aspirations of this generation who are becoming very political. If they dont feel theres a purpose to which they can work, they will go in any other set of other directions. Theyre loyalties will go. Now, we therefore, got to think how you mobilize money and is it there and say, we europe dont have enough, or the United States doesnt have enough. Its not a policy at all. The policy is how do you mobilize all the resources that are available and work out who can whats whats the Business Plan and the cash flow plan if i may put it in very simple terms that begins to address the aspirations you 100 y cannot tell of million ethiopians, half of them kids 30 years old. Of thatliberty of of saying that. Half of them are men who are unemployed, but what do you expect . When it comes to election time . What is it when its able to offer. To offer . And i dont mean charity. Its about real investments. Its about getting government to understand what can be done. If the International Community merely oherent, it will reinforce any incipient incoherence in the region. We will mirror each other. And then well be sitting here in a few years time wondering what went wrong. And the answer would have been we are the wrinkles of the shirt instead of ironing them out. That is the core, core question of the moment. We could have had the self confidence to say that certain things we believe in and were ready to invest in and bring others on boor. And i mean anyone. The object is to put some coherence into the International System at the moment. And that, i have a lot of faith in an emerging generation which is totally why i didnt onnect it. Theres nucleus of new leadership that could reemerge some of the politics of the region. That is what i think need to be doing if that isnt too general. But that has to be a three teenic objective. If we stabilize the next two years, then theres the breathing space then to look at the next stage, by which time you hope that the new generation going to express itself rather than what we think should wan. When youre lying in your bed in nairobi thinking about all of these issues. Thinking about the potential of this young generation and the connections that they make but also the challenges that theyre going to face with such high levels of unemployment. The push towards elections, which i always describe as the cherry on the icing of the cake of democracy. And the assumption that gets made so often particularly in countries going through transition which is chaotic that if only they can have an election everything will be fine rather than understanding that that does not give them all that democracy has to give them by any stretch of the imagination. When you think about this landscape, what keeps you up at night . There are significant individuals in the region but also outside for whoms the not in their interests to go down this path. Deliberation is a painful, messy business. You know, thats democracy. Here are the key issues that scare me and i think were asleep at the wheel. Yes, terrorism is there. And i dont mean to in any way diminish it. But im seeing something else. You asked me what are some changes that have occurred in the last eight years that ive been doing this. I want to be clear, this is not just about this region. It is the rising criminalization of economies in politics. What we saw in west africa, the International Criminal syndicates are saying, the horn of africa, thats a useful place from which we could operate. The more you can open up, people flow in. Likewise regimes that are very are using criminal methods in the management of their economies. Whats the point here . When you really listen and look at the social media, theyre asking very simply where has the money gone. All right . A question that some of us would have asked of our own government at other times, all right . So this is not unique to this particular region. This is fundamental. Simply talking about anticorruption is not there. S the a criminalization run by merging cartels. The risk is that they will begin to capture part of whole of states. Fortunately, there are people in governments to see that know it. But it is fascinating that this is whats emerging. And if we dont wake up and understand that terrorists are effect piggybacking on this is one. Selffinancing organization. Thats what it is. In other words, is this a terrorist organization or is it a Mafia Organization cloaked and wrapped . Eligion . Governments must do it. We must do it. South sudan is a classic example. Were on the record. I will repeat it. I failed to see why we should be investing in a country where were engaged in an experience and moral hazard when gauching with the same people negotiating with the same people who stole the bank right now. And were being asked to put more money in. Im not sure that i would ask them to do that. Keep the indigent, and how do we address the fact that other countries in the region, their networks are complicit in this . Sudan, we want a civilian to cease the civilians begin to get control. Fine, in a country which has had 30 years, the longest single islamist regime which created its own economic cartels. Those would barely scratch the surface. How do we deal with that . Weve got to talk to other who are also engaged. Friends in the gulf and elsewhere. But if we dont begin to get to the heart of that, we will have missed a trick and the people of the region will have felt that theyve been tricked by nice words quaint project. But in the meantime, the money is running venezuela as it were. Follow the money. Alex, thank you from me. Now, this is your opportunity for comments an questions. But all i would ask if you can keep them relatively brief because we want to hear more from him. Important though, you are. Though, i know theres a wonderful mary with a microphone in her hand. Theres a gentleman there. If you could just say who you are just because were curious. I represent somali land right here. Im going ask you this question. I would appreciate if you reflect on the somali land in terms of its contribution in erms of peace and stability to region. And the political situation in the changing horn of africa. Thank you. Somali land is very interesting, historical position. This is in the region unique in africa, which is already seeing two secessions legitimized if i may put it that way. You representing somali land would probably want to be the third that is legitimized. The reality at the moment is. At that is for your neighbor, somalia itself, the African Union and others. But theres absolutely no doubt that so long as somali land can continue to show thats the keeping stability, and it would help that somali land showed that it could maintain the politics, electoral processes and the like would actually stick to that because right now youre run a bit into the sand on that. I think only time will tell what i what i would suggest is that somali land is your deep aspirations not with stanning should be watching very carefully what is happening more widely in t